Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville JaguarsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Jacksonville JaguarsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of clubs that only had two wins each last year will meet here on Sunday. The good news is one team will start the season with half the wins they had all of last year. Andy Reid takes the Chiefs helm after a long career at Philadelphia. Gus Bradley also starts new as the Jags head coach. The Jags hope a full, healthy season out of RB Muarice Jones-Drew will make a difference for a stagnant offense. Surprisingly, Jacksonville has done well in season openers, going 12-2 ATS in week one the last 14 seasons. Jacksonville has also covered its last four straight at home. Not a lot to hang your hat on with these two clubs, but I'll take the home team here as a four-point dog. Can't really see why the Chiefs are laying this many even with Andy Reid at the helm. Jags like opening day and I'm taking them here again.
IveyWalters
2% Cincinnati Bengals +3
Double Dime Bets: 35-17 67.30% +30.56 Units
Triple Dime Best Bets: 13-6 68.42% +16.65 Units
Total Record: 48-23-1 67.60% +47.21% Return on Investment
Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Can't trust the Lions as a home favorite against the Vikings this Sunday noting they were a not-so-perfect 0-6 against the spread last year against division foes. That includes a pair of outright losses against these Vikings - dropping a 20-13 decision as a similarly-priced 3.5-point home favorite as well as a ten-point loss as three-point road chalk in Minnesota. Lions just 2-6 straight up here in Detroit last season, and while Calvin Johnson and company have big name value, that doesn't necessarily translate into wins and ATS covers. Take the points as we give the Vikings a decent chance at taking this game outright, and and even better chance of going down to the wire.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans SaintsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Atlanta Falcons +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These plays have done well long term and we post one every Sunday. Atlanta fits a solid early system we use the plays on Divisional Dogs in the first few weeks of the season. Atlanta has covered the last as road dogs and will look to get the sour taste of last seasons NFC Championship game out of their mouths. They have Tony Gonzalez back for one more run at the Super Bowl and Steven Jackson as their lead back. The Saints were a mediocre last season and will have to make big strides on Defense this year if they are going to Compete for the division title. Both teams can and will score, this game will come down to defense and Intangibles. Atlanta has gained alot of seasoning getting their first playoff win and having played in some big games which will bring them much needed poise in big spots like these. Based on the system we will back the Falcons and the points.
Nick Parsons
LA Dodgers vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Back in May the Dodgers lost eight-straight. They're now 83-58 after yesterday's loss to the Reds. LA has been the "hottest" team in the league since before the All Star break, but has started to show a few cracks in the armor. A loss today would be its fourth in a row, its worst streak since the infamous slide at the start of the season.
The Reds are 81-62 and are gunning for the series sweep.
When taking into account a number of different factors, I definitely feel that the home side offers considerable value in this matchup.
Clayton Kershaw (14-8, 1.89 ERA)
Kershaw was fortunate to get a win in his last start in Colorado on Monday night, giving up five runs over just five innings of work. In all the southpaw gave up the five earned runs off 11 hits with a walk and four K's.
Recent performance is always a factor that handicappers will look at, whether that be a team or a specific part of what that team is doing. In this case, we'll concentrate on just a single player.
The Dodgers' ace simply hasn't been at his best of late, so don't let his season long numbers fool you. He's lasted just 10 2/3's innings total over his last two combined starts and has allowed a ghastly seven runs in that span (lost his previous outing).
Homer Bailey (10-10, 3.42 ERA)
Bailey's 10-10 record is obviously not indicative of his overall play this year. Remember, he's already thrown a no-hitter.
Most recently he dominated the Cardinals on Tuesday, scattering two hits with one walk while striking out eight over seven scoreless frames in his team's eventual 1-0 victory.
The big right-hander has not allowed a run over his last 14 1/3's innings of work.
Note that Bailey also had a strong start vs. the Dodgers back on July 26th, giving up two runs over seven innings.
The Bottom Line
Bailey is in fact 5-0 over his last seven outings, sporting a minuscule 1.27 ERA in the last four.
One other player to keep your eyes on today is the Reds' Todd Frazier who is hitting .400 this month. Also make sure to track Cincinnati's Shin-Soo Choo who sports a massive .484 average over his last eight games.
In fact, you'll also want to watch for Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips today; Votto has reached base in all nine plate appearances with four hits and five walks so far in this series, while Phillips is 8 for 19 off Kershaw.
From my point of view, not only does the home side have the better starter on the bump, but it also clearly has the hotter lineup at the plate.
This is the very definition of "great line value".
Matt Fargo
New England vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo
It is no secret that the Patriots have owned this series against Buffalo as they have lost to the Bills only once since 2004. New England is once again picked to win the AFC East after another superb season a year ago as well is it being a weak division yet again. The Patriots have been so good for so long that they have become a very publicly bet team and therefore, we see a lot of value on the other side a lot of times and that appears to be the case here. This is a new Buffalo team with new coaches, some new exciting players and higher expectations. Many are saying the Bills will be going nowhere but I feel they have a chance to surprise some with a solid year. This is one of those teams that is definitely an unknown but the only place they can go is up. Yet we are catching a number where it seems Buffalo is actually going down. Undrafted rookie quarterback Jeff Tuel was supposed to get the start for the Bills and because of that, the line went up a big amount. But fellow rookie quarterback EJ Manuel recovered from "minor" surgery on his left knee on Aug. 18. He has took in practice this week and the Bills announced that he will start in the opener yet the line has not dropped because of it. This is a very talented offense that possesses a lot of athletes. The Bills have impressive speed and playmaking ability with running backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and multiple weapons in tight end Scott Chandler and receivers Stevie Johnson, T.J. Graham, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. They are facing a Patriots defense that was pretty average a year ago and there are some questions about whether or not they will stay at that level or even fall down some. Tom Brady is still on of the best quarterbacks in the NFL but New England has question marks at receiver and tight end. With Rob Gronkowski unlikely to play, their top three passing options will be newly signed Danny Amendola and undrafted rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Zach Sudfeld. That could be an issue if you ask me and any problems with the Bills secondary will not be as bad as originally thought. The Patriots defense puts Buffalo into a solid situation where we play against favorites in a divisional matchup that allowed 5.4 yppl or more last season. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona vs. St. Louis
Pick: Arizona
Do the Rams really believe that they can replace star RB Steven Jackson (who skedaddled to Atlanta in free agency) with the combination of Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead? Preseason work hardly indicated as much as the Rams “O” looks like it could be dangerously imbalanced this fall. Which would put more of a burden on 4th-year QB Sam Bradford, whose back-and-forth efforts to date have hardly suggested he is ready to ascend to elite status anytime soon. He’s also looking for a new safety blanket after his favorite target, WR Danny Amendola, moved to New England in the offseason. Would rather take a lead with the Big Red, as sources say the tone in the desert seems completely different under new HC Bruce Arians than in the last couple of years of Ken Whisenhunt's regime. Although red zone efficiency was a concern in August, Carson Palmer looks a decent bet to solve the QB woes that have endured since Kurt Warner's retirement. Todd Bowles’ "D" looked mighty impressive in preseason, too.
Scott Spreitzer
Green Bay at San Francisco
Prediction: Under
San Francisco is short-handed on offense in this one with a banged-up receiving corps, including the loss of Michael Crabtree. Anquan Boldin will look to fill the void, but it should take a little time for Kaepernick and Boldin to develop the type of rhythm the former Nevada QB had with Crabtree. I also expect to see a strong defensive game plan from the Packers, who'll likely crash their DE's from the perimeter and look to bring a LB over the top to slow Kaepernick, setting the tone for a lower scoring game than many expect. Today's total is more than a FG higher than the total posted for their playoff meeting in January and I'm recommending a play on the Under on Sunday.
Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Jets +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nobody likes, much less loves, the Jets. And for good reason. Team Turmoil has replaced the Tim Tebow circus with another QB controversy that has coach Rex Ryan on the hot season after leading this team to the AFC Title game in his first two seasons only to fall to 8-8 and 6-10 in the two seasons since. Rookie QB Geno Smith gets the start while erstwhile starter Mark Sanchez recovers from an injured shoulder. There are few quality receivers and an unproven running game. But Tampa Bay is not in much better shape. Yes, RB Doug Martin is the real deal. But QB Josh Freeman has his own share of critics and coach Greg Schiano's penchant for employing collegiate tactics has not sat well with opponents and even some members of his own organization. Nobody wanted the Jets last season when they opened at home against Buffalo. Though favored by a FG over the Bills, the Jets' 48-28 rout confounded and confused the experts. But only for a few days. The Jets may start this season the same way but do not figure to have many days of success going forward.
Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh SteelersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pittsburgh Steelers qualify in a league-wide system that has already cashed this season with Denver rolling past Baltimore on Thursday night. Based on our research we found that in season openers AFC favorites have done quite well against non-division opponents. In Game 1, play ON an AFC favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 points with a total of thirty-five or more points when facing a non-divisional foe. With the Broncos win on Thursday the system record now stands at 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS. Play the Steelers on Sunday
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Miami @ ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 41FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If this game was played a year ago at this time you would be insane not to jump all over the under with a number this high. However, that was then, and this is now. The Dolphins made some upgrades to their offense especially at the wide receiver position which will enable them to be a more dynamic unit in 2013. The new head coach of the Cleveland Browns Rob Chudzinski is a brilliant young offensive mind, and I look for his team to improve dramatically on that side of the ball. Both starting quarterbacks enter their second year in the NFL after being thrown to the wolves a year ago and accounting themselves admirably. This will be a more entertaining game than the general public is expecting
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Any home favorite or underdog of 2.0 or less that's playing in their opening game of the season, they won 5 games or less in the previous season, and the total is 41.0 or more has seen all 6 of those games go over the total since the start of the 1980 season. Those 6 games averaged a combined 56.3 points per game. Play on this game to go over the total.
Harry Bondi's Bulletin
NFL BEST BETS
ARIZONA (+5) over St. Louis
The Cardinals were the surprise of the early season in 2012, sprinting out to a 4-0 record, including a shocking win at New England. But things went bad in a hurry as the Cards dropped 11 of their final 12 games, missing the playoffs for a third-consecutive year and costing Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt his job. With expectations low in 2013, Arizona will be improved this season and it starts with a defense that ranked in the Top-10 of the NFL last year. The offense was dismal, but the front office upgraded the offensive line and after using a horrid combination of four players at QB last year, Carson Palmer is entrenched as this year’s starter. New Head Coach Bruce Arians comes over from the Colts and is deadset on utilizing All-World WR Larry Fitzgerald like he used Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis. With a much-improved offense and an underrated defense, we’ll gladly grab the points here against a St. Louis team that improved to 7-8-1 last year after a two-win season in 2012, but four of those wins were by six points or less. The Rams have only been a favorite six times since December of 2010 and they are 0-6 ATS in those games. Take the points. 23-17
CAROLINA (+3) over Seattle
The Seahawks and their fans have been saying “Super Bowl or Bust” all preseason. Those are lofty expectations for a franchise that’s missed the playoffs three out of the last five years. Add in the fact that they have a huge Sunday Night ESPN home opener vs. San Francisco on deck and you can see why this is a perfect spot to be on the Panthers, who went 6-1 in their final seven games last year. Upset! 27-20
UNDER 46.5 POINTS - Vikings at Lions
In our NFL Regular Season Over/UnderWin Total Best Bet Report, we went UNDER 7.5 WINS on the Vikings. The offense is a onetrick pony and even though the pony (Adrian Peterson) is a thoroughbred, the Purple aren’t going to score many points and will be an “UNDER” team all season. Let’s jump on that trend in Week 1 before the oddsmaker catches up. UNDER
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -145
This is a playoff atmosphere and in that I am going to take the better baseball team and one of the best pitchers in the game. The Dodgers are on a mini losing streak and need to break out of that with their ace on the mound as they head into the playoffs. Take L.A
Craig Davis
Today's free play of the day is on the SF 49ers over the Green Bay Packers. Sorry Packers fans, but this could be a long season for your group with very little change on defense (where they struggled last year) and an unproven run game.
Sure, Eddie Lacy is a big time talent coming out of college, but what has he proven since coming to the NFL? To date... NOTHING.
The Packers have to have a run game in order to make things easier on QB Aaron Rodgers and the passing game.
And speaking of that... Rodgers will be without Greg Jennings for the first time since taking over the starting job from Brett Favre.
He's got a gimpy Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to go along with James Jones. Then he's got a often lazy Jermichael Finley at TE to complete the cloudy picture.
On the other side, the Niners feel like they have some unfinished business to take care of and didn't have a ton of personnel changes which definitely plays in their favor.
Aside from not having Michael Crabtree in the passing game, the Niners still have their dynamic QB, a stable of RBs, and Vernon Davis.
I think the Niners win by 10, covering this low number.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie will be to lay the double-digits with the Indianapolis Colts as they host the Oakland Raiders.
Indy was one of the surprise teams last season, as the Colts caught lightning in a bottle and made it all the way to the postseason in Andrew Luck's first season under center.
I expect things to be just as rosy for Indy this season, as the Colts have hired Luck's former offensive coordinator at Stanford, Pep Hamilton, which should make young Mr. Luck feel plenty more comfortable as Indianapolis eases into the West Coast system.
The Colts also shored up their defense in the off-season, and I just do not see this Oakland team which does not have a proven quarterback it can turn to as the season gets underway, scoring too many points on the road this afternoon.
The Raiders went 4-6-1 against the spread last season in the underdog role, while the Colts covered 7 of their 8 home games a season ago.
Chuck Pagano has laid the foundation, now it is time to see it grow a little bit further this season, as for Oakland, that foundation is still shifting sands.
Lay it with the Colts.
2♦ INDIANAPOLIS