DUNKEL INDEX
Pittsburgh at Denver
The Broncos look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. Denver is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1)
Game 453-454: Indianapolis at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 125.338; Chicago 136.387
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Over
Game 455-456: Philadelphia at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.307; Cleveland 129.423
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9); Over
Game 457-458: Buffalo at NY Jets (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.000; NY Jets 128.394
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under
Game 459-460: Washington at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.226; New Orleans 136.744
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Under
Game 461-462: New England at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.120; Tennessee 134.776
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6 1/2); Over
Game 463-464: Jacksonville at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.523; Minnesota 128.384
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+4 1/2); Under
Game 465-466: Miami at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.483; Houston 143.005
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-10 1/2); Over
Game 467-468: St. Louis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.837; Detroit 134.336
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 13 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8); Under
Game 469-470: Atlanta at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.107; Kansas City 130.099
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Over
Game 471-472: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.100; Green Bay 138.121
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+5 1/2); Over
Game 473-474: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.515; Tampa Bay 126.430
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under
Game 475-476: Seattle at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 133.680; Arizona 128.587
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5; 36
Vegas Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2 1/2); Under
Game 477-478: Pittsburgh at Denver (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.635; Denver 134.522
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Denver (-1); 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1); Over
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Game 479-480: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.845; Baltimore 134.774
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+6); Over
Game 481-482: San Diego at Oakland (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.176; Oakland 132.310
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+1); Under
MLB
LA Dodgers at San Francisco
The Giants look to build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games as an underdog. San Francisco is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155)
Game 951-952: Atlanta at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 16.395; NY Mets (Young) 14.560
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under
Game 953-954: Houston at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Gonzalez) 14.575; Cincinnati (Cueto) 13.615
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-305); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+275); Over
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 14.365; Pittsburgh (Locke) 13.753
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); Over
Game 957-958: Miami at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 15.294; Washington (Jackson) 15.816
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Under
Game 959-960: Colorado at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chatwood) 16.683; Philadelphia (Cloyd) 15.275
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+190); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.764; St. Louis (Kelly) 15.249
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.660; San Francisco (Zito) 15.658
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155); Over
Game 965-966: Arizona at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 15.249; San Diego (Werner) 16.635
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Under
Game 967-968: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Villanueva) 16.438; Boston (Buchholz) 14.414
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135); Over
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Garcia) 15.127; Baltimore (Britton) 15.690
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-130); Under
Game 971-972: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Oswalt) 15.806; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.426
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over
Game 973-974: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.134; White Sox (Santiago) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under
Game 975-976: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kluber) 13.914; Minnesota (Vasquez) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.409; Seattle (Vargas) 13.968
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Under
Game 979-980: Detroit at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.300; LA Angels (Greinke) 17.961
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-155); Under
Game 981-982: Colorado at Philadelphia (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 16.948; Philadelphia (Cloyd) 16.010
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Over
WNBA
Washington at Atlanta
The Mystics look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games when playing with 1 days rest. Washington is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+12)
Game 651-652: Washington at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 104.146; Atlanta 113.988
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 12; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+12); Over
Game 653-654: Minnesota at San Antonio (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 121.807; San Antonio 117.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2); Under
Game 655-656: Los Angeles at New York (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 114.717; New York 111.880
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 159 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5); Over
Game 657-658: Chicago at Connecticut (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 104.842; Connecticut 116.573
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 11 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 7 1/2; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-7 1/2); Under
Game 659-660: Phoenix at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 103.176; Indiana 114.082
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11; 165
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 14 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+14 1/2); Over
CFL
Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
The Roughriders look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 September games. Saskatchewan is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Saskatchewan favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2)
Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 113.861; Winnipeg 108.710
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 53
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-3 1/2); Over
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Dolphins / Texans Under 43FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I like Coach Philbin, and I cringed when I heard he had accepted the Miami job. He had a nice gig in Green Bay with a first class organization. However, evidently it's the dream of every coach to be the head guy at least once in the big show and he decided to make the trip south. In more ways than one. No need to beat on the obvious here guys, the Dolphins are a mess. For what it's worth I also lean to the Texans in the side here but to be candid there are other games I favor much more. I look at this total and just cannot help but wonder where in the hell the points are going to come from for the fish. I honestly do think the Dolphins are decent enough on the defensive side of the ball but oh brother, that offense is difficult to even watch. They could be somewhat like the Broncos were last year, a stout unit on defense that get's worn down as the season progresses from taking too many snaps. I see a whole lot of three and out's in this Miami offense's future. I suggest a small wager here on the under guys.
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Buffalo vs. N.Y. Jets
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When wagering on O/U plays, its always important to pay particular attention to a few "key" numbers. Forty-one is one such number. Sunday afternoon's O/U line opened above the 41 mark and has since fallen below it. I feel that's providing us with some solid value on the Over.
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Looking at last season's meetings and we see that the O/U lines (42.5 and 45.5) were both above the 41 mark. Those games averaged 45 points, including a 28-24 score in the game here at New York.
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That brings the "over" to 3-1 in this series the past two seasons. Going back further, the "over" is 9-5-1 the last 15 meetings between these teams.
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Looking at the Week 1 of the 2011 season and we find that both these teams were involved in high-scoring games. Buffalo scored 41 points, en route to a 41-7 road win at KC.
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The Jets' 2011 opener was even higher-scoring. NY combined with Dallas for 51 points, a 27-24 victory.
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Don't be surprised if this one also produces more points than many will be expecting. If the line stays below 41, consider the Over.
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St. Louis under 6 wins +105
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The St. Louis Rams’ posted total is 6. That means they would need seven wins to go OVER their number. There’s a better chance that John Madden will be their punt returner than that happening. The Rams were 2-14 a year ago and have done little to improve. St. Louis is coming off of a dreadful 10-38 stretch during Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure. By math, this six-year span of nothing but scrub squads has combined for a pathetic 23-73 record. Last year, opposing teams gashed them on the ground, as St. Louis gave up an astounding 151 yards per game. Offensively, we don’t know if QB Sam Bradford can play simply because he had no receivers and more importantly, he was sacked a league high 55 times!
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Regardless of how good a player is in any sport, at some point you have to enjoy success to keep your confidence. Bradford hasn’t had any in the NFL. As a rookie in 2010, Bradford had an 18/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2011, Bradford struggled with injuries to his ankle and elbow, often playing at far less than 100-percent health-wise. He completed only 53.5 percent of his throws with a 6/6 TD-INT ratio. Going back to Bradford’s senior year at Oklahoma when he got hurt in the opener against BYU and then went out again early in a game against Texas, Bradford’s last three seasons have been rough. Didn’t we see a similar fate with highly touted Joey Harrington a few years back?
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The offence managed to score a league-low 193 points last year. All of this won’t bode well for their difficult schedule. It includes road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks. How about a three-game stretch at midseason that features Green Bay, New England and San Francisco? Four of St. Louis’ final six games are on the road. And, they only have seven true home games as they’ll face New England across the pond in London. How can this team possibly get more than four wins? They can’t, they won’t and UNDER 6 will be a cashable ticket.
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Tennessee under 7 wins +135
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It’s difficult to take a team to go OVER its posted season win total when you can’t find a home game that you feel they should win. That same task is even more difficult when the team you are examining could easily go 0-4 to start the season. The Titans fall into both categories.
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This Tennessee squad will have their work cut out for them. In today’s NFL, it starts at quarterback. Second-year head coach Mike Munchak named 2nd year player, Jake Locker, as his starter. It is clear that Munchak has concerns with Locker, (will keep the starting quarterback job “unless there’s a reason to make a change.") as his #1 but in case of failure, veteran Matt Hasselbeck will be suited up for his 14th season in the bigs. Neither guy offers much confidence. Locker may turn out to be a good one but he has yet to start a game and in his few appearances last year, he completed just 51% (34 of 66) of his passes.
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It doesn’t help help having Chris Palmer as the team’s offensive coordinator. Not only has Palmer had a laundry list of jobs, he came out of a 2010 retirement to take this position. Palmer’s offense is quite complicated and even a savvy and headsy veteran like Hasselbeck had difficulty with it. "Running in the run and shoot, with a quarterback that young, who struggles with accuracy, I don't see how that's going to work," said one scout. "Palmer wants his quarterbacks to see the game like a wide receiver, anticipate what the receiver is going to do, and adjust that for everyone in the route. Locker is still just trying to read the game like a quarterback.”
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To make matters worse, Tennessee ’s best receiver is not without issues. Kenny Britt will attempt to rebound from an ACL injury and if that wasn’t enough, he’s headed for a suspension after being arrested for eighth time in three years when he was busted for a DUI back in June.
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RB Chris Johnson had a disappointing 2011 season after an all-star 2010 campaign. If there isn’t a strong passing game, will he be able to shine again?
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On the other side of the ball, the Titans lack a key element for success in this league. Tennessee managed just 28 sacks in 2011, second-worst in the NFL. They’ve hired personnel in an attempt to improve those numbers but we don’t see anything or anyone notable to believe that improvements are forthcoming.
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Oh, almost forgot. Their best corner, Cortland Finnegan signed a $50 million contract this offseason...with the Rams.
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Of course, each team’s schedule plays a part in their respective season win total. Let’s breakdown Tennessee ’s:
Would you go over 7 in a 12 game schedule? That’s what ‘OVER 7’ players could be in for here as the Titans could easily go 0-4 in the first month of the season. Tennessee opens at home to NE (current line is NE -6½), then they fly to San Diego to face the Chargers, back home to take on the Lions and then off to Houston.
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October is a bit easier. A road game at Minnesota Vikings, then on four day’s rest, they’ll return home to play Pittsburgh on a Thursday night. That one is followed by a trip to Buffalo and the month ends with a home game to the division-rival Colts. Facing that quartet, a 1-3 month is almost as likely as a 3-1 mark. Let’s saw it off and call it 2-2, leaving them at 2-6 for the first half of the year.
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In order to get to 8, the number needed to lose the under play, the Titans would have to go 6-2 in the season’s 2nd half.
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The first challenge will be hosting a strong Chicago Bears squad. 2-7? Then, off to Miami, a question mark, at best. Tennessee then gets to enjoy their bye week but they’ll return to play three consecutive divisional games with a trip to Jacksonville, at home to Houston and finishing in Indianapolis . The Titans will close out by hosting the Jets on a featured Monday nighter, a trip to Green Bay (brrrrr!) and finally as hosts to the Jaguars.
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If Tennessee is fortunate enough to win in Miami and then take two of three in that divisional set (possible, but unlikely), that still only gives them five wins. That would require sweeping the Jets, Packers and Jags to get to eight wins and we know that’s not going to happen.
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Giving the Titans the benefit of the doubt, seven wins would be an achievement. Five or six wins is a more realistic expectation and one that will allow us to cash this UNDER 7 WINS ticket at season’s end.
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Seattle vs. Arizona
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Two NFC West rivals with far different levels of enthusiasm coming into the 2012 regular season here. When Pete Carroll is providing sage coaching advice, then you're in trouble. Yet Carroll has handled his own QB situation far better than counterpart Ken Wisenhunt, making the firm decision to go with rookie Russell Wilson over high-priced free agent acquisition Matt Flynn. Perhaps I'm being unfair considering Carroll had two viable choices under center while Wisenhunt was forced to decide between John Skelton and Kevin Kolb, but the end result I see is the Seahawks going into Arizona and beating down the Cardinals in Week 1.
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The linesmakers clearly made a mistake by opening Arizona as the favorite here. The two teams' preseasons were vastly different with the Cardinals going 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS and their lone win came against the Raiders. Seattle was a perfect 4-0 Straight Up and Against The Spread as QB Wilson was clearly the 'toast' of the preseason. The Seahawks are typically recognized as a strong home team and weak on the road, but they are 4-1-1 ATS their last six road games and did manage to win in Chicago and at the Giants last year. The Cardinals have one of the worst home field advantages in the league.
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In last year's two meetings, the home team won by a field goal each time. Arizona's win came in a meaningless regular season finale. The momentum clearly lies with Seattle as the regular season begins.
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Philadelphia vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While playing road favorites of this size isn’t typically “our thing,” all signs point to an Eagles blowout in Week 1 over the hapless Browns. It speaks volumes that Cleveland is already a home dog of this magnitude for its opening game. It certainly doesn’t help that the team’s best defensive player, CB Joe Haden, is facing a four-game suspension for a failed drug test. He was already in hot water after being kicked out of a practice for being “too rough” on the team’s sorry receivers. The Browns are one of five teams starting a rookie quarterback in Week 1, and if fellow rookie RB Trent Richardson doesn’t play here, they are in real trouble. Even if he does play, Richardson got no reps in the preseason. Home field advantage means little to the Browns, who are 2-8-2 ATS their last 12 games in the “Mistake by the Lake.” Philadelphia will be looking to atone for a miserable 2011 season where they underachieved badly. These teams met in the preseason and the Eagles won 27-10, which is actually significant, not just because it was “Dress Rehearsal” week. Mike Vick didn’t even play and it was essentially the Eagles second stringers whipping the Browns’ first string in the first half. It will be a long season in Cleveland. Play on Philadelphia.
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Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers
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Winnipeg (2-7) hit rock bottom last week after being blown out by a 52-0 margin against Saskatchewan. With this being Labor Day week, it is the traditional immediate home-and-home turnaround schedule between divisional rivals -- and while it may be tempting to think that the defending East Division Champion Blue Bombers will bounce-back in this game, last week's results probably suggest that this team is too far gone to be salvaged. Quarterback Joe Elliott will have to start again with Buck Pierce still out with his injury. Elliott completed just 9 of 15 passes for 61 yards and one interception last week. Winnipeg is last or second to last in every major offensive and defensive category -- including being last in the CFL in scoring (19.6 PPG) and points allowed (32.9 PPG). Saskatchewan (4-5) should build off their momentum from last week since they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after both a point spread victory and a straight up win. The Roughriders have also covered the spread in 6 straight games in the month of September. Winnipeg has suffered too much roster turnover -- and then a host of injuries -- from the team that lost in the Grey Cup last year. This is not the same team. Lay the points with Saskatchewan.
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Kansas City +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Home underdogs in most any sport, especially the NFL, are almost always profitable over the course of the season. We play most of them blind. In this case, fading the Falcons outside of the dome is almost automatic as well. Aside from the noise factor, they are just SLOWER on turf, not unlike New Orleans, or for years, the Colts. The timing just isn't the same. Although the Falcons are almost always a playoff team of late, the one thing they lack is the killer instinct. They tend to go soft with a lead, and I suspect that the Chiefs may well win this game SU so I will gladly take the points at home. The culture in Atlanta doesn't seem to change from year to year, while the same cannot be said in Kansas City. The Pioli stamp will become evident fairly soon. We are playing the Chiefs!
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These were the two top teams in the NFC LY. San Francisco was led by their defense a season ago, but a tougher schedule this season will hurt. Their offense added receivers Moss, Manningham, and Jenkins while not to mention Jacobs and James in their backfield. However, the 49ers had nowhere to go but up last season. Now they must face a Packers team that was 15-1 in the regular season, winning by 18 PPG in going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home during the regular season. Poor defensive numbers forced Green Bay to draft defenders with their first 6 picks in the off-season. QB, Aaron Rodgers had 45 TDs and only 6 INTs. But Rodgers claims the key to their success this season is the addition of Cedric Benson. The 49ers are 1-9-2 ATS their L12 games played vs. the Packers while the Packers are 15-6 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take Green Bay.
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Survivor Pick - Week 1
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NEW YORK JETS over Buffalo
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Many people go with the prohibitive big favorites in week one so expect the majority of your pool to be backing the Texans, Bears, Eagles and Saints. That’s a safe strategy you could go with in week 1 but we’re looking at an alternative one that has served us well over the years.
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When playing big favorites every week one of two things will happen. First, when a big upset occurs, and there is usually one every week, you’ll get knocked out with many others. If your game isn’t the upset game, you’ll subsequently get knocked out with many others in the next big upset game. If you get lucky and few upsets occur, you’ll end up splitting your pool with about 50 other guys. We’re not saying to never play a big favorite. You’re going to have to in weeks where the other games are too close to call. You’ll also be saving some strong teams in good spots for later on down the road.
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Picking teams in the early weeks that are unusable later on is a strategy that could see you go far and avoid being knocked out by a big upset. That brings us to the New York Jets.
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The Jets were supposed to do big things last season. They didn’t. They’re not projected to do much this season. Much was made about their inability to score TD’s in the preseason. Ignore all of that. The Jets defense could be one of the best in the business and their corners will be one of the best. They’ll face a Bills team that they not only own, but one they know they can beat. The Bills stock is much higher than it should be, while the Jets stock is lower. Huge chip on the shoulders of Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, et all, has this team primed to win the opener.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW YORK JETS STRAIGHT UP
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DENVER -2 -109 over Pittsburgh
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Peyton Manning in a wheelchair would be more effective than an able-bodied Tim Tebow, the latter leading the Broncos to an upset wildcard playoff win in Pittsburgh last year. Afterwards, the Steelers released long-time offensive coordinator Bruce Arians and will now employ a more open, more aggressive passing attack led by new OC Todd Haley. Todd Haley? Wasn’t the Chiefs offense under him about as exciting as a quilt festival?
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This is very likely to be the loudest stadium in the NFL on Sunday. Home field advantage could certainly play a role. Combined with Denver’s pass rushing ability and Ben Roethlisberger’s fragile foot, there’s more upside with the host. No bets.
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GREEN BAY -5 -103 over San Francisco
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They say defense usually trumps offense. The Packers intend to dispel that theory here. Green Bay gave up miles of passing yards last season but when you’re facing San Fran’s Alex Smith, it’s not much of a concern.
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The Packers seemed unstoppable last season. The scored 560 points and QB Aaron Rodgers threw for at least two touchdowns in all but one game. The Packers have done little to change in the offseason and why would they with a 15-1 record last year?
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The 49ers were last year’s Cinderella. They came from nowhere to go 13-3 and just missed winning the NFC championship. The defense is intact but the opposition is going to take them a lot more seriously this time around. What usually follows a dream season is a regression and this is the perfect setting for that to occur. Pack has covered five straight openers under McCarthy’s tenure. No bets.
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TAMPA BAY +2 -104 over Carolina
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Prince Harry is less embarrassing than these Bucs after Tampa closed out last season with 10 straight losses. However, former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano appears to have his team focused, something the exiled Raheem Morris couldn’t do. Let’s see if Cam Newton is as good 2nd time around. No bets.
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Miami +11½ -101 over HOUSTON
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Are the Dolphins run by Miami Seaquarium employees? The Fish have been retooling for years but continue to regress. They enter this season with another new coach in Joe Philbin. Philbin comes over after spending nine years in Green Bay, the last five as the offensive coordinator. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill played two series, completing 5-of-7 passes in the Dolphins' preseason finale against the Cowboys. Now it's on to the games that count for Tannehill, selected with the eighth overall pick in April's draft. For what it's worth, the QB finished the preseason 41 of 78 for 414 yards, a TD and an interception. Up first are the Houston Texans and what is expected to be one of the league's top defenses.
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Houston is good but this is still an overreaction. Surprisingly, Dolphins have covered nine of their past 10 including a pair of 3-pt losses to both Super Bowl combatants. Spotting close to two-converted TD’s rarely comes recommended in opening week. No bets.
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St. Louis +7½ -107 over DETROIT
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This one has a bothersome stench to it. The Lions are highly regarded after going 10-6 last year and making the playoffs. They posted the greatest passing stats in the history of the franchise. With that comes high expectations and an inflated line.
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The Rams ended 2-14 are they’re currently on a seven game losing streak. The Rams cleaned house and brought in HC Jeff Fisher who will install a Tennessee-like offense with the help of OC Brian Schottenheimer. While the Rams won two games last year and haven’t upgraded much. Jeff Fisher teams rarely get blown out. A bunch of enthusiastic draft choices, combined with a new attitude is hopefully enough to make the smell go away. We’ll use our buy-low, sell-high philosophy here. No bets.
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CLEVELAND +9 -103 over Philadelphia
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On the plus side, no one is calling the Eagles "the team to beat" this year so there is a minimal amount of pressure. Finishing 8-8 only thanks to a four game winning streak at the end means the Eagles are looking to gain back their mojo that never appeared in 2011. Michael Vick spent most of the preseason injured of course but has a new vest to wear that the manufacturer guarantees will prevent him from injury. It’s not yet known which lawyers will handle the suit when it doesn’t protect him.
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Not easy to get revved up with these Brownies but we’ll still lean that way as Eagles cannot be trusted as prohibitive road favorite, especially until we see the goods. Prefer to go under the total as Cleveland’s only chance is to play good D and control clock with ground game. That could occur. No bets.
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MINNESOTA -3½ -105 over Jacksonville
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At least one of these two dregs will be undefeated for a week. It probably won’t be the Jaguars. The Jaguars were 5-11 last season, with the ‘5’ being flattering. The Vikings were only 3-13 with just one home win. This was supposed to a battle of stud running backs but now neither Maurice Jones-Drew or Adrian Peterson are in game shape. That leaves two very marginal passing attacks and the Vikings should hold the upper hand.
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Minnesota resides in the difficult NFC North. They at least employ a pass rusher in Jared Allen. The Vikings remain a team built around Adrian Peterson who tore three ligaments in his knee last January and has since tried to become the fastest healer in the history of orthopedic surgery. Christian Ponder could not outscore what his own defense was giving away but Ponder did have five multiple touchdown games and showed signs of improvement as the season wore on. Vikes are not a preferred squad to be spotting points with but given the choice, would rather go that way than endorsing this weak visitor at a relatively short price. No bets.
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NEW ORLEANS -7½ -108 over Washington
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The Skins went through their annual personnel upheaval and chances are best that they have not yet meshed well enough to compete in this setting. Skins are better than advertised but they enter this one with a glaringly thin secondary. That won’t bode well when facing the high-octane offense that Drew Brees and his Saints bring to the party.
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RG3 indoctrination comes at a difficult venue, facing a team with a chip on its shoulder. The Saints may not be as good as the team that went 13-3 last year and won every home game. With Sean Payton suspended for the year and the team sporting temporary players and coaches for a few weeks to the full year, the effects may end up really hurting this team. But at home against a rookie quarterback, with something to prove to the world, it should be plenty enough to get the cover. No bets.
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TENNESSEE +6 -110 over NEW ENGLAND
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2011 was another banner year for Tom Brady and the Patriots, despite a Super Bowl loss. Brady passed for over 5000 yards and the Patriots featured the most productive tight ends in NFL history. Patriots opened as 7-pt choice but line has dropped ever since. Odd, no? That red flag could be attributed to concerns about New England’s offensive line.
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Sophomore Tennessee coaches have had a year to acclimate after short introduction to team last season and reports are promising. The Titans enter the second season of OC Chris Palmer’s offense with the hopes that Chris Johnson merely took a year off in 2010 and that Jake Locker got the proper seasoning and is now ready to play. Another red flag is the masses spotting the points but the line is coming down. That’s usually a tell-tale sign of a favorite to avoid. No bets.
Indianapolis +10 -105 over CHICAGO
The Colts have reshuffled their deck. Think new everything. After booting the 2011 season, this team has retooled with a new franchise QB, new coach and dozens of new players and coaches.
Before he ever takes a regular season snap, Andrew Luck is better than half the QB’s in the NFL. Granted, it will take time but with ex-Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano taking over and the promise of Luck, expect a rejuvenated Colts squad.
The Bears finally agreed that a Mike Martz offense was a poor fit in Chicago and let him go. Mike Tice was promoted to become the offensive coordinator. Martz has been known as a quarterback killer and the shaky offensive line in Chicago could not prevent opposing pass rushes from reaching Cutler. The offensive line is not expected to be much better this season but Tice’s schemes may be more protective of Chicago’s pivot. It’s early but Bears could be overlooking this one with trip to Green Bay on deck. Let’s see what the Colts are all about before spotting double-digits against them. No bets.
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KANSAS CITY +3 -109 over Atlanta
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The Chiefs won this division just two seasons ago before being decimated by injuries in 2011 in which RB Jamaal Charles was instantly lost along with TE Tony Moeaki. QB Matt Cassel missed seven games. KC’s offense couldn’t overcome such adversity and it was a season lost.
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This is a fresh start. A slew of talented players return to KC’s roster, including a healthy Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki. In addition, head coach, Romeo Crennel is there from the get go after replacing the uncompromising Todd Haley last year.
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The Falcons have high expectations but they are best on fast home surface and have dropped three of past four away. They’ll also face a team that was very vanilla in the preseason and will now display its real game plans for this, a real game. The Chiefs are extremely dangerous as home underdogs with nine covers in past 11, including six straight when taking points here.
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Our Pick: KANSAS CITY +3 -109
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ARIZONA +125 over Seattle
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Seattle fans are all amped up over rookie QB Russell Wilson after the youngster earned the starting job over recently acquired Matt Flynn. Calm down people. Wilson had tiny shoes to fill with the array of stiffs that have paraded through the northwest. We don’t see why the Seachickens should be a road favorite, in division, with a neophyte QB in his first game of regular season play.
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The Cardinals have their own QB issues but they believe in John Skelton and they do have the best player on the field in WR Larry Fitzgerald. Let’s not ignore that Arizona won five of its final six games last year. Much of their late season success was attributed to a unheralded defence that started to gel and one that enters this campaign cohesively and with confidence.
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Arizona went 6-2 at home a season ago and the home team in this series has won seven of the last 10 meetings and four of the last five. The Seahawks may be a team pointed in the right direction but they are being overvalued here due to a strong pre-season. Road games have long been an albatross or this franchise, which gives us a nice sell high opportunity. Cardinals straight up.
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Our Pick: ARIZONA +125
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N.Y. JETS -3 +105 over Buffalo
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The Jets were Super Bowl contenders not long ago but have since fallen back to the pack. A horrendous pre-season offensively (Bills weren’t much either) has really soured Jets supporters but we’re not exactly buying into it. Rex Ryan is sly enough to not show his hand just yet, especially with Tim Tebow’s non-QB athleticism at his disposal and an elite defense to keep opponents within striking distance.
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The Bills are being touted by some but a poor secondary, and an offense that is void of impact players has us doubting. The Bills started last year on a very strong note with Ryan Fitzpatrick racking up multiple touchdown games but by midseason it all took a downward turn. The passing game no longer was as effective and by several accounts defenses had figured out the Bills. It certainly looked like it with the Bills 5-2 after seven games but only 1-8 the rest of the way.
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The Jets have won seven of the last eight meetings. Buffalo was victorious in just one of six divisional games last year which included a pair of losses to this host. While there have been concerns voiced with New York’s offense coming into this season, we’d be more concerned with a Bills defense that is supposed to better but was torched all throughout the pre-season.
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Our Pick: N.Y. JETS -3 +105
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New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brady looked awful in the pre-season and Tennessee is hungry with a new head coach and Jake Locker. For 12 straight years the loser of the Super Bowl has been unable to cover the number in their opening game the following season. From teams with dominant quarterbacks (Manning and the Colts, Brady and the Patriots, Roethlisberger and the Steelers, Warner and the Rams) to teams with semi-fraud QBs (Delhomme and the Panthers, Grossman and the Bears), they all share the maddening inability to cover on opening day after coming up short in the Super Bowl seven months prior. Eight of the 12 Super Bowl losers were favored on the following opening day, but only two (New England in 2008 and Seattle in 2006) have been able to even win straight-up.Look for a FG game either way here.