NFL Betting Picks
Seattle Seahawks -1
The Seattle Seahawks started off the 2011 season going 1-3 with losses coming to tough teams in Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Atlanta. After that the Seahawks managed to go 6-6 for the rest of the season, with some impressive victories against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and @Chicago. Other wins came against Arizona, St Louis x2 and Washington. The Seahawks other losses came against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas, Washington, San Francisco and Arizona. Seattle had the leagues 9th best defense as far as yards against per game at 332 and were 7th in the NFL allowing just 19.7 points against per game. The offense on the other hand wasn't very good averaging 303 yards per game (28th) and 20.1 points per game (23rd). Seattle's problem was at quarterback with neither Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst performing to the level they needed to. The Seahawks addressed that issue by signing Matt Flynn out of Green Bay and drafting Russell Wilson in the 3rd round of this year's draft. Wilson outperformed Flynn in the preseason and was named the starting QB for the Seahawks, which was the right decision in my mind. With Wisconsin last season Wilson threw for 3175 yards with 33 TDs and just 4 INTs while adding 338 yards rushing and 6 TDs on the ground. In the deciding preseason game vs Kansas City Wilson went 13 for 19 for 185 yards and 2 TDs and added 58 yards on the ground. Running Back Marshawn Lynch is now questionable for Sunday's game, but even if he is out I still like Seattle to win on Sunday.
The Arizona Cardinals started off last season with a win versus Carolina at home, and then went on to lose 6 straight games to fall to 1-6. The Cardinals turned things around going 7-2 in their last 9 games to finish the year 8-8, but missing the playoffs. Wins came against Carolina, St Louis x2, Philadelphia, Dallas, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Seattle. While losses came against Washington, Seattle, NY Giants, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Francisco, Cincinnati. The Cardinals defense ranked 18th in the NFL allowing 355 yards against per game, while they ranked 16th giving up 21.8 points against per game. On offense they averaged 324 yards per game (19th) and averaged just 19.5 points per game (24th). John Skelton and Kevin Kolb split time at QB last year, but Skelton won the starting role despite a poor preseason. Skelton completed 56% of his passes this preseason for 1 TD and 2 INTs and a 50.6 QB Rating, which were better numbers than Kevin Kolb's. In 2011 Skelton completed just 54.9% of his passes for 1913 yards with 11 TDs and 14 INTs and a 68.9 QB Rating.
Seattle ranked 11th in the league in pass defense, and should make it tough on Skelton Sunday. For Arizona to have success they are going to need to have success running the ball with Beanie Wells, but that could be tough against Seattle's defense that was ranked 15th against the rush (note that the Cardinals were 24th in the league in rushing last year averaging 101 yards per game). Also take note that Arizona will be starting two offensive tackles that have never started an NFL game at those positions. These two teams split their two meetings last year (both 3 point victories by the home team), but this year I see the Seahawks much improved while the Cardinals will take a step backwards. Take Seattle to cover.
Houston Texans -12
The Miami Dolphins started the season 0-7 before turning things around and finishing off the year winning 6 of their last 9 for a 6-10 record. Losses came against New England x2, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, NY Jets, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia. Their victories came against Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo x2, Oakland and NY Jets. The Dolphins were 2-6 on the road last year. The Dolphins ranked 15th in total defense allowing 345 yards against per game, and allowed just 19.6 points against per game (6th). Offensively the Dolphins ranked 22nd averaging 317 yards per game and scored just 20.6 points per game (20th). QB snaps were split between Matt Moore and Chad Henne last year, but they've handed the starting role over to rookie Ryan Tannehill who was their 8th overall pick in this year's draft. With Texas A&M last year he threw for 3744 yards with 29 TDs and 15 INTs completing 61.6 % of his passes. During the preseason Ryan Tannehill failed to really impress completing 52.6% of his passes for 1 TD and 1 INT (66.9 QB Rating), but that is expected out of a young quarterback. Factor in that the Dolphins skilled positions on offense aren't very good, and it looks like the Dolphins could start the season off poorly again this year.
The Houston Texans started the year off last year 10-3 before dropping the final three games to finish 10-6. The Texans had some key injuries on offense with QB Matt Shaub missing 6 games and star receiver Andre Johnson missing 9. Back up QB T.J. Yates helped the Texans win their first playoff game in the Wildcard round 31-10 at home versus the Bengals, but his inexperience showed in Baltimore where he threw 3 INTs in a 20-13 loss. Regular season wins for the Texans came against Indianapolis, Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville x2, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta ,and Cincinnati.With losses coming against New Orleans, Oakland, Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. Houston had 6 double digit wins on the season last year. Despite missing some key players the Texans offense ranked 13th averaging 372 yards per game, and 10th in the league averaging 23.8 points per game. Their defense was even better, which makes the future of this team look very good. Houston's defense ranked #2 in the NFL allowing just 285 yards against per game and just 17.4 points against per game (4th). Shaub was one of the better QBs in the league last year before getting injured, throwing for 2479 yards and completing 61% of his passes with 15 TDs and 6 INTs - good for a 96.8 QB Rating. Running Back Arian Foster was 5th in the league with 1224 rushing yards.
Take note that the Dolphins are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games, and 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games in September. The Texans are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Texans were double digit favorites twice last year and they "pushed" one of those winning by 10 against Jacksonville, and crushed Cleveland 30-12 to cover the 10.5 spread in the other. When healthy this Houston team is one of the best in the NFL, and are especially dangerous at home. Miami's offense should be below average this year, and will most likely have a lot of troubles in their first few games with a rookie quarterback seeing his first NFL action. Going against one of the league's best defenses I can't see Miami scoring many points and I like the Texans to win big in Week 1.
Carolina Panthers -2
Last year was the Cam Newton show for the Panthers and fans, as he helped them improve their record to 6-10 from 2-14 the year before. The Panthers started off 2-8 despite some great offensive performances, but then went on to win 4 of their last 6 games to finish the year off well. Wins came against Jacksonville, Washington, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay x2, and Houston. Amongst their losses was a 3 point loss to the then defending Super Bowl Champion Packers as 10.5 point underdogs, and a 3 point loss to New Orleans as 6.5 point underdogs that could have been a victory if not for a bad coaching decision (calling a timeout with 0:02 left in the half to stop the clock that resulted in a New Orleans field goal). Offensively the Panthers ranked 7th in the NFL with 389 yards per game on average, and they scored 25.4 points per game on average (5th). The problems for Carolina came defensively, as they ranked 28th in the league allowing 377 yards against per game, and gave up 26.8 points against per game (27th). Cam Newton threw for 4051 yards completing 60% of his passes with 21 TDs and 17 INTs for a 84.5 QB Rating. He also added 706 yards on the ground and 14 rushing TDs, breaking all kinds of rookie QB records. Overall the Panthers were 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 150.5 yards per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers would like to forget about their 2011 season. After a promising 4-2 start the Buccs went winless in their last 10 games to end the season with a 4-12 record. Their victories came against Minnesota on the road and then Atlanta, Indianapolis, and New Orleans at home. To give the Buccs credit, they did face some tough opponents playing 8 teams that made the playoffs. With that said the Buccaneers had the 30th ranked defense giving up 394 yards against per game, and 30.9 points per game (32nd). Their passing defense was ranked 21st, but their rushing defense was dead last ranked 32nd in the league giving up 156 yards against per game. Offensively the Buccaneers were 21st in the league averaging 319 yards per game, and scored just 17.9 points per game (27th). QB Josh Freeman will have to be better if the Buccaneers want to compete this year. Last year he completed 62.8% of his passes for 3592 yards but threw just 16 TDs compared to 22 INTs for a 74.6 QB Rating. Tampa Bay has named their 31st overall pick of this year's draft, Doug Martin, their starting Running Back.
These two teams met twice last season with Carolina winning 38-19 in Tampa Bay, and then following that up with a 48-16 home victory. In the first meeting Cam Newton threw for 204 yards and a touchdown while the Panthers rushed for 163 yards, and in the second meeting Newtown threw for 171 yards and 3 TDs while they added 270 yards on the ground. This Sunday it will be tough for the leagues worst rushing defense a year ago to slow down Carolina's ground game, and I like Cam Newton and the Panthers offense to control a lot of this game. I do think the Buccs will be better than they were last season, but I still don't see enough defensive improvements for them to keep up with a good offense like the Panthers have. Note that the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in these two teams last 7 meetings. I will take Carolina to win and cover in Tampa.
Rams / Lions Over 46.5
The St Louis Rams finished off 2011 with a 2-14 record after the team had to juggle between 3 QBs with rookie Sam Bradford starting just 10 games due to injury. The wins came at home vs New Orleans in a shocker 31-21 victory as 13.5 point underdogs, and a 13-12 win in Cleveland as 2.5 point underdogs. Not much can be said about the Rams stats offensively last year as they were 31st in the NFL with just 283 yards per game, and 12.1 points per game (32nd), but this is a new year and I think they will be much improved if Bradford can stay healthy. In this year's preseason Bradford completed 58.8% of his passes for 5 TDs and 0 INTs which was good for a 116.3 QB Rating. RB Steven Jackson rushed for 1145 yards last season (4.4 yards per carry) and should provide a balanced attack for the Rams. Defensively the Rams were 22nd in the NFL allowing 358 yards against per game, and allowed 25.4 points against per game (27th). Both of those numbers most likely would have been higher if they had kept games tighter, as offenses managed the clock more then run up the score after being up a few touchdowns.
The Detroit Lions got off to a great start last year winning their first 5 games, and finishing with a 10-6 record to make the playoffs. Regular season wins came against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota x2, Dallas, Chicago, Denver, Carolina, Oakland, and San Diego. Unfortunately for the Lions they had a very tough meeting in New Orleans against the Saints in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and were beat 45-28 as 10.5 point underdogs. All in all a successful season for the Lions to make the playoffs and they look to head back again this year. The Lions were 5th in the NFL offensively averaging 396 yards per game, and scored 29.6 points per game on average (4th). Defensively the Lions were 23rd in the NFL averaging 367 yards per game, while allowing 24.2 points against per game (23rd). Matthew Stafford was impressive at QB last year throwing for 5038 yards completing 63.5% of his passes with 41 TDs and 16 INTs - good for a 97.2 QB Rating (leaving him behind only Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Romo). Calvin Johnson was on the receiving end of a lot of those passes as he had 96 receptions for 1681 yards and 16 TDs.
Take note that the Lions averaged 30.4 points per game at home. Also note that in 5 of 6 of Detroit's losses they scored 19 or fewer points - if you take out those losses the Lions averaged 35.8 points per game in the other 11 games. The Detroit Lions had the 23rd ranked rush defense, while the Rams were 31st in the league. The Lions defense was 22nd against the pass, while the Rams were 7th (a number which is skewed because teams would stop throwing on them after leading by a few TDs - as is shown by the opponents 60.5% pass completion against their defense). This game features one of the best offenses in the game right now, and a St Louis offense that should be much improved from last season with Bradford healthy and a few more targets for him. We also see two sub par defenses that are ranked 23rd and 27th in points allowed per game. The OVER was 11-6 in the Lions games last season (including playoffs), and two of those games that went under the total actually had 48 points scored, which would be good enough for the OVER in this game with a total set at 46.5 (when I locked in my bet). For me everything is pointing to a high scoring game, and I will put 4 units on the OVER between the Rams and Lions this weekend for my only big 4 unit play of Week 1.
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Seattle vs. Arizona
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There’s only one question to be asked here – do you believe what you saw this preseason? Arizona spent the entire month of August getting annihilated at the line of scrimmage, then losing a pair of tackles to season ending injuries. Ken Whisenhunt’s team couldn’t run the football one iota, getting nothing from Beanie Wells yet again.
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And to make matters worse, it didn’t matter who was behind center against any first string defense – both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton spent the entire preseason running for their lives. No receiver stepped up on the opposite side from Larry Fitzgerald. This offense couldn’t move the football for basically the entirety of the preseason. I don’t expect that to change dramatically in Week 1, facing a top notch Seahawks defense.
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Seattle, on the other hand, comes out of the preseason with a boatload of confidence. Their defense dominated throughout, allowing an NFL low 44 points in four games, bad news for the beleaguered Cardinals offensive line. And rookie QB Russell Wilson wasn’t handed the job – he won it fair and square over the #1 free agent QB in the market this past offseason, Matt Flynn. Wilson was electric throughout August; exactly the kind of undervalued commodity I’m looking to support Week 1. Seattle is the better of these two teams on any field, more than capable of winning this game by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks.
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Buffalo vs. N.Y. Jets
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It is no secret that the Jets had a miserable preseason as they went 0-4 and it took them all the way to game four to score an offensive touchdown and that came from the backups. New York is not going to be as bad as it looked as preseason results can pretty much be tossed out the door anyway. Obviously, because they are in New York, the Jets are getting scrutinized by the media so they will certainly have something to prove and what better place to start at home against a divisional rival.
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The Bills also had a miserable preseason and they will not be as bad as they looked either. Defensively they were atrocious as they allowed 38, 38 and 36 in their last three games and while we can't take preseason results too seriously as mentioned, but that is inexcusable for three straight games, even from the backups. The offense was nearly as bad up until the meaningless fourth game so things are not good now. Buffalo needed to get a jolt of confidence in the preseason and that it did not get.
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The defense made some overhauls in the offseason. George Edwards was replaced as defensive coordinator by Dave Wannstedt. They Bills also signed Mario Williams which is big upgrade to the defensive line and they also picked up some depth in the draft. This is a tough matchup however as the Jets gave them nothing to look at in the preseason with Tim Tebow. Mike Tannenbaum said that Mark Sanchez will take 80-90% of the snaps and that Tebow could take as many as 20. No preparation means problems.
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Buffalo has to worry about the Jets defense as it again should be one of the best in the NFL. Over the last three years, New York is first in the NFL in pass defense (199.4 ypg), second in total defense (285.3 ypg), first in third-down conversions (33.7 percent), and it has held quarterbacks to the lowest completion percentage (52.2 percent), and passer rating (68.7). The Jets will be salivating over the Bills offensive line that features a rookie at left tackle and three other players that aren't even close to 100 percent.
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The Jets have won five of the last six meetings and they have held Buffalo to 14.1 ppg in those contests. Buffalo quarterbacks have hit the turf 13 times while the Bills rushing offense has averaged only 73 ypg on just over 22 carries per game (3.2 ypc). This type of stuff is not going to reverse the trend of getting beat and there really doesn't seem to much hope that it will get turned around in this game. We are catching a very solid number so anything under -3 is a great bet.
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Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City ChiefsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Roaming the sidelines in Kansas City as the Chiefs? new permanent boss, Romeo Crennel relishes the task at hand, looking to reclaim an AFC West division crown his team captured just two seasons ago. If history has a say ? and it almost always does ? look for the Featherheads to get out of the gate in strong fashion as our database notes K.C. is 13-8 SU and 17-3-1 ATS as a home dog during the first four games of the season. That ties in nicely with Crennel?s 14-6-1 ATS mark during the first half of the season in non-division games. Despite the Falcons? solid success in the past against this division (5-1 SU and ATS), they are a paltry 4-21 SU and 8-17 ATS in road openers, including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five years. The Dirty Birds will take the field with new coordinators on both sides of the ball this campaign, with Dirk Koetter ushering the offense and Mike Nolan the defense. We?ll opt for the stability Crennel brings to the home franchise, knowing he is right where he belongs. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.
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Panthers / Buccaneers
Play: Over 46½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina has plenty of offense behind QB Cam Newton (4,051, 21, 17 INTs) and WR Steve Smith (1,394). Newton has a strong arm and ran for 706 yards as a rookie. The Panthers 12-3-2 Over vs. the NFC and take on a rebuilding Tampa Bay squad off a 4-12 train wreck season. Their offense should be improved behind new coach Greg Schiano as he is preaching no turnovers, but there are a lot of holes on a defense that was thin and soft in 2011, 21st against the pass, and dead last vs. run (156 yds pg). They were outscored by 207 points (only the Rams were worse). The over is 5-2 in the Buccaneers last 7 games on grass, the over is 4-1 in their last 5 against the NFC. And when these teams meet the over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play the Panthers/Bucs over the total.
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Seahawks / Cardinals
Play: Under 41FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seahawks head into this season with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center after he beat out high-priced free agent Matt Flynn. He may have to shoulder more of the offensive load since star RB Marshawn Lynch is questionable for this game with a back injury.
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John Skelton beat out Kevin Kolb in the preseason and will start for the Cardinals in this game. He has a solid WR duo in Larry Fitzgerald and first round draft pick Michael Floyd. RB Beanie Wells rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and 2nd year back Ryan Williams, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. The Seahawks have a great young secondary, and their run defense is moving up the charts. Expect big things.
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I know the preseason does not mean anything, but in their preseason games the Seahawks’ defense played well only giving up 44 points. They went 4-0.
Two young quarterbacks. The Cardinals went 6-2 in games that Skelton appeared in last season.
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The Seahawks won’t have WR Golden Tate (knee) but deep threat Sidney Rice was deemed ready to go, as was slot WR Doug Baldwin.
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Two young, hungry up and coming defenses, two young QB's, good pass rushes on both sides of the ball, this game has UNDER written all over it. Expect a 17-14 type game.
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Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -2½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There's no denying how bad the Jets looked in the preseason, but none of that really matters when you are talking about the regular season. The Jets were very secretive about their Wildcat formation that they plan on using with Tim Tebow, and I think it's going to make on the difference on the offensive side of the ball.
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Lost in the Jets offensive struggles in the preseason, is the fact that this team made some big improvements on defense and should once again feature a dominant stop unit in 2012.
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Buffalo has made some nice improvements this offseason, but with this line only at 2.5 you are basically saying the Bills are going to win outright if you take them on the spread. I am confident that won't happen. My final score prediction is New York 23, Buffalo 13.
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Cleveland Browns +11
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This looks to be a game in which we can wait until late (gametime) to make our play. We might even get the Brownies at +10 or more points. As of Saturday afternoon, Philly was laying anywhere from -9 pts (Bookmaker)... to -9.5 pts (Betonline / Justbet / Bovada).. to -11pts (5Dimes).
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Will we be 'holding our nose' while making our play? You can BET on it (pun intended). But I certainly can't ignore the tremendous HIGH PERCENTAGE of large home dogs that have hot as of late in the NFL.
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NFL home underdogs of +8 or more points (BROWNS) have gone an amazing 20-2 ATS (91%) in the last three seasons. And if our doggie is getting +8.5 or more, they've gone a PERFECT 8-0 ATS! Cleveland has been in this situation TWICE in the last three years, and has gone (naturally) a perfect 2-0 ATS.
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Yes, we're aware that the lowly Brownies won only FOUR games last year. But...
GAME ONE underdogs of > 3 points who won 4 or less games last season (BROWNS) have go e 6-1ATS in the last two seasons.
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The Eagles open up their 2012 season with back-to-back NON-CONFERENCE games (vs Cleveland this week and vs Baltimore next week).
GAME ONE teams from the NFC conference starting out their season with BB non-conference games (Eagles) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 ATS since 2000.
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Check out the ATS tendencies when these two particular divisions (NFC East / AFC North) take on each other!
Since 2001, NFC EAST teams have go e -22 ATS (Philly) vs any AFC NORTH opponent (CLEVE). These teams have gone 4-15 ATS as favorites... and 1-7 ATS as ROAD favorites (Eagles).FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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And in Game One:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NFC favs of > 7 points (eagles) have gone a perfect 0-5 ATS since 1986 vs any AFC opponent (BROWNS).
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As mentioned above, the Eagles have a BIG game versus the Ravens next week.
0-6-1 ATS: All NFL road favorites of -4 to -13 points (Eagles) before a HOME game vs the Baltimore Ravens.
Nick ParsonsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chargers / Raiders Over 46.5
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In a re-match of last year's last game of the season for both teams, this game features a total four points lower than what we have today. That game was a 38-26 shootout win by the Chargers, a game in which both teams racked up 980 yards of offence. With everyone healthy and in the same venue we will take the over, which has cashed in the each of the last five times these teams have played in Oakland.
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The Chargers, with a bigtime passing game led by Philip Rivers, and an OK defence, have the elements of an 'over' team. Looking at the facts, the over is 12-4 in the Chargers last 16 games in September and 32-15-4 in Chargers last 51 road games. This total is the second lowest in the last four Chargers regular season games and we will back the final score to roll over that total on Monday night.
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The Raiders are always a better offence with Darren McFadden in the lineup, a luxury Carson Palmer did not have when he joined the silver and black well into the season. The D has lost defensive standouts and is in a rebuilding phase, and gave up over 300 yards passing to SD in the last match-up. We are not confident either D will be anywhere close to midseason form after SD allowed 345 and OAK 259 yards per game in the pre-season.
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Over has cashed in on the Raiders last five season opening games and in each of their last four home games AND last four games in September. Watch the trend continue and make a play on the OVER.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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4 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HOUSTON -12.5 over Miami: The Miami Dolphins have new schemes on offense and a rookie QB to run them. They also have very little talent at wide receiver and an OL that is pretty weak. The Dolphins put up just 10.8 ppg in the preseason and they just may end up as the lowest scoring team in the NFL. Now their game 1 task is to take on a Houston defense that 2nd in the league last year, allowing just 283 ypg and 17 ppg. Houston did trade Demeco Ryans in the off season, but still have plenty of depth and talent to finish in the top 5 defensively again. Miami had a decent second half on defense, but they did very little to improve that side of the ball and they have new defensive schemes as well. Houston got some good news as it looks as if Arian Foster will play. The Texans also have a healthy Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson and should have no problems putting up points on the average Miami defense. The Dolphins will struggle all year and I just don’t see this sorry offense coming up with enough points to keep this one close.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota/ Jacksonville Under 38: This will be a game of running the ball and defense and with the QB’s that these two teams have that is the only way for them to go. The Viking defense was 28th in the league vs the pass, but that’s ok cause the Jags were the worst passing offense in the league, averaging just 136 ypg through the air. The Jags do like to run and will have Jones-Drew back in the fold for this one. He will not be a big part of the offense in game 1, but still that will not change the Jags game plan. The Vikings have weak QB play as well in Ponder and will also rely on their running game to get things done in this one. Last year the Jags were 9th vs the run and 8th vs the pass and that will make it hard for this Minnesota offense to put points on the board. Allot of running means the clock will run and run and that should go a long way to keeping this one UNDER the total. KEY TREND--- The Under is 2-8 when the Jags are rod dogs of 4 or less.
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Chicago/ Indianapolis Over 43: Last year the Colts averaged just 15 pg, but with the presence of Luck and more imaginative play calling they were able to put up 24.5 ppg in the preseason. I know it's just preseason, but this offense is improved and should be able to put up solid numbers vs a Chicago defense that really struggled in the preseason, allowing 24.8 ppg and 30+ points twice. Last year the Bears put up 22 ppg, but this year they look much better and are healthier as well. Jay Cutler had a very nice year last year and his weapons have been greatly upgraded with the addition of Brandon Marshall and 2nd round draft pick Alshon Jeffrey (Boise State). This WR corps along with RB Matt Forte makes the Bears offense very dangerous. The Colts last year struggled on defense, allowing 27 ppg and I haven't seen much of an improvement this year as they allowed 24 ppg in their last 3 games of the preseason. This unit had some big holes on defense, but still used their 1st 5 picks on offense. This unit will struggle again. This should be a fun game. Luck will be turned loose and Cutler and his outstanding WR corp will also make a lot of big plays which should give us around 50 points in this game.
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DETROIT -9 over St Louis: 2 years ago a weak Detroit team pasted a weak St Louis team by a 44-6 count, ad that was with out Stafford. Now this Detroit team is a much better group and will be a playoff team, while St Louis has headed the other way. The Rams were just awful on the road last year, losing 6 of their 8 away games by 12 or more points and in their last 3 road games they were outscored 83-13. Ouch. This year in the preseason they did do ok at Dallas losing by just 1 point, but in their opener on the road they lost to Indy by 35 points. Detroit will be an explosive offense once again this year, with Stafford throwing the ball all over the place to his bevy of WR's and will be taking aim at a St Louis defense that is average at best vs the pass. Last year St Louis averaged just 12 ppg and did very little in the off season to upgrade their offense. Sam Bradford is a decent QB and Jackson is a solid RB, but when your playing at Detroit, where the Lions averaged 30+ ppg last year, you need to be able to put a lot of points on the board and the Rams just don't have that kind of offense. Detroit's defense keeps improving and their offense could be unstoppable in this one. I expect the Lions to win by 17+ here. KEY TREND--- The Rams are 1-10 ATS as dogs of more than 5 points during the first 4 weeks of the season.
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Seattle vs. Arizona
Pick: Seattle
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This has become one of the most popular plays on the board this week, largely due to the Seahawks perfect 4-0 preseason, in which they scored more points while allowing fewer than anyone in the league.
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Just because it's a popular play, doesn't mean it's the wrong one.
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I'm high on this Seahawks squad, but it has little to do with rookie phenom Russell Wilson. If the Seahawks are going to succeed it's most definitely going to be a 'team' effort. I feel that they have just enough talent at the skill positions on offense, and a defense that is poised to make some serious noise this season - it all adds up to a breakout campaign in the Pacific Northwest.
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The Seahawks draw a favorable opening week matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals didn't appear all that sure of themselves in the preseason, and I really think that their defense is in line for some regression here in 2012. While I'm sure they can stay competitive in this game, I'm also confident that QB John Skelton will make at least one critical mistake against a ball-hawking Seahawks secondary that is more than capable of putting points on the board all on its own.
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While Arizona did go 6-2 SU here at home this season, it's certainly worth noting that the Cards won four of those games in overtime. That included a 23-20 win over the Seahawks in the final week of the regular season. Remember, Tarvaris Jackson started that game at quarterback for the Seahawks, and to no one's surprise, he struggled. I expect a much sharper effort from Wilson under center this time around.
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Seattle really grew as a team last year, notching tough road wins in New York (against the Giants) and Chicago. The nucleus of that squad is back, with upgrades at several key positions. Brimming with confidence, I look for the Seahawks to prevail in an entertaining game on Sunday afternoon.
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Seattle vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
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Arizona is getting a lot of disrespect to start the season versus the Seattle Seahawks. If you listen to the talking heads on the radio, you'd think the Seahawks were a lock to not only win - but to win big.
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I might be going against norm here by saying that I’m a little nervous about calling Seattle the “lock” against the Cardinals in Week 1. We all know there is no “lock” in the NFL, just ask anyone who took the New York Giants to cover at home against the Cowboys this week.
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Contrary to popular belief, there are positives for Arizona in this match-up. The Cardinals are at home, in a divisional game against an opponent who they split wins with last year, each taking care of business at home.
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Last year in the friendly confines of Glendale, the Cards really excelled going 6-2 straight up. Arizona also played well against its division last year going 4-2 straight up and ATS. The Cards also covered the spread at home nicely as the favorite going 3-1. In other words, this Cardinal team usually takes care of business at home.
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I admit the Seahawks are the sexy pick here, coming in off an excellent preseason going 4-0 SU and ATS. Meanwhile the Cards went 1-3.
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Guys. Let's not forget. Those are still PRESEASON numbers, we must NOT overreact to them.
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It’s a little strange to see Seattle as the road favorite, last year the Hawks were never the road favorite and have gone 2-1 over the past 4 years in the few times that they were. This uncharted territory makes me think twice about calling for Seattle to cover as well.
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The Seahawks will be starting Russell Wilson who, despite his impressive play, is still an undersized rookie behind center. We are still unsure of will happen out of the gate with this guy; I refuse to call him the reincarnation of Doug Flutie until I see him prove it in the regular season.
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Giving us more reasonable doubt about Seattle on Sunday, "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch is questionable for the game.
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The Cardinals defense looked a little shaky in preseason but I think that will be no indication of how the unit will perform in Week 1. The unit was quietly one of the best defenses in the league during the second half of last year, never allowing more than 23 points in a game. They boast strong playmakers up front and in the secondary that are going to give Wilson a tough time.
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Cardinals Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt has decided to go with QB John Skeleton, which I believe is partly situational because he led them to a Week 16 win over Seattle last year.
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In that game Skeleton showed great chemistry with number one receiving option in Larry Fitzgerald, connecting for 9 receptions and 149 yards. Skeleton actually completed more passes last year and won more games than Kevin Kolb. I think that, combined with a slightly better preseason gave Skeleton the nod in a huge divisional match-up in Week 1.
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Look for a highly contested game as usual between these two teams and don’t buy in to the pre season hype of the Seattle Seahawks. Take a look at the points with the home underdog, particularly if you can get a line of +3.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
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10* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Vikings set to start at 1:00 PM ET, September 9, 2012. Both teams had disappointing seasons with the Jaguars posting a 5-11 record and the Vikings an even worse 3-13 record. Both teams will be better, but Jacksonville may be the team that will have the greatest improvement of the losing record teams from last season.
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Keep in mind that for 16 straight season there have been five of the 12 playoff teams not qualify for postseason play the following season. This clearly reflects the parity that dominates the NFL each season and underscores how important injuries become as the season wears on. Who is to say that despite the distractions that occurred during the preseason to the Jaguars, that they can?t be one of the new contenders. Realistically, that may be a long shot, but I am confident stating that they have now have the coaching staff and personnel in place to have an even 8-8 record in 2012.
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A road win here would be huge for the chemistry and confidence of the Jaguars. The Jaguars will be much improved from last year?s dead last (32nd) ranking averaging just 136.2 yards per game. Maurice Jones-Drew is an elite running back and he was the focus of the offense that ranked 12th gaining an average of 123.1 rushing yards per game. Jaguars signal caller, Blaine Gabbert will lead this team at 22-years of age, but he has the athletic tools at 6-4 and 235 pounds and football intelligence to make a big impact in the league.
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He had his ?seasoning? last year and proved that he could extend the play and avoid the majority of pass rushes. Yet, as many rookies do, he held onto the ball too long and took too many unnecessary sacks, especially on third downs and less than 10 yards. Last year?s game experience will be far more beneficial for him than having held a clipboard and been an understudy for a veteran quarterback.
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Looking at last season, his performance decreased as the game wore on simply because his team would fall behind on the scoreboard. His quarterback rating by pass attempts as as follows: Attempts 1-10 a rating of 75.7 and averaging 6.43 yards per attempt completing 58% of the passes thrown. Attempts 11-20 produced a 70.2 quarterback rating and averaging just 5.12 yards per attempt on 54% pass completions. Attempts 21-30 produced a horrid 50.2 quarterback rating averaging just 5.00 yards per pass attempt on 41.4% completions. On pass attempts 31-40 his quarterback rating fell into the abyss at 43.6 averaging just 3.15 yards per pass attempt on 36.6% completions.
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A more balanced attack and better offensive line will make him evolve into a more reliable and consistent leader on the field. I am confident you will see him attack the middle of the field against the Vikings highly suspect cover-2 scheme. The Vikings ranked 26th in pass defense allowing 251.2 passing yards per game in 2011 and will be vulnerable in this matchup where they must respect the power running game of Maurice Jones-Drew.
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Supporting System and Simulator Projections
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The simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will lose this game by three or fewer points and I fully expect them to win the game. The Jaguars have a strong and vastly underrated defensive unit. The sim shows a high probability that the Vikings will not score more than 21 points in this game. In past games, the Vikings are just 1-7 losing 7.0 units per one unit wagered when they have scored between 15 and 21 points in a game over the past three seasons.
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Take the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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Dolphins / Texans Over
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The Dolphins are in a rebuilding year with a new head coach and a rookie QB. Joe Philbin was the former offensive coordinator for the Packers and knows how orchestrate a high-powered offense. They are a double-digit road dog here, so this is a great opportunity to see what Tannehill can do. If they were at home in a winnable game, they might start conservatively. However, they are not going to win this one by running the ball into the line.
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We have an interesting system working here that also indicates the OVER. It involves previous season revenge for non-divisional opponents. The league is 22-0 OU when seeking previous season revenge vs a non-divisional opponent for a non-Monday loss as a dog in which they trailed by more than a field-goal at the half, as long as the revenging team is not three wins ahead of their opponent in the conference standings.
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Note that the Texans beat the Dolphins 23-13 last season after leading 16-3 at the half. The reason for this long string of overs seems to be that the revenging team plays with a nothing-to-lose attitude. This system was 10-0 OU last season with two overs in week one. The twenty-two games have averaged 10.2 points over the OU line. This system fits this situation, so we'll go with it to get to 23-0.
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Miami has been excellent against the run but poor against the pass so we expect the Texans to attack Miami through the air to build an early lead. This will force the Dolphins to throw even more and thus give the Texans more possessions. As with most inexperienced quarterbacks, if they are behind late in the game, they will be slinging the ball down the field in the fourth quarter the hurry-up if only to gain valuable pro-experience. Miami has two winnable home games next and the brass will use this game to get Tannehill as much experience as possible before hosting the Raiders and Jets in weeks two and three. Get in early as 43 is a key number.
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MTi's FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Miami 21
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Seahawks / Cardinals Under
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Since the start of the 2008 football season, the Cardinals are 0-12 OU (-9.5 ppg) when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season - all twelve games were under current head coach Ken Whisenhunt. That's 0-3 OU in each of the last four seasons.
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EVERY single one of the nine games since 2009 has stayed under by MORE than a TD. It is very likely that Whisenhunt takes a conservative approach in key divisional contests in the first match-up of the season.
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Another reason for the Cardinals' offense to start conservatively is that John Skelton is atat QB, the first time he has ever opened a season as the starter.
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Seattle has a very similar trend in performance. The Seahawks are 0-7 OU when facing a divisional opponent for the first time in the current season, as long as the line is within five points of pickem.
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The line tightener makes sense. If the line is reasonably close to pick, it is more likely that a single costly mistake could cost a team the game. So, we expect both teams to feel each other out - especially early in the contest.
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Another reason we expect Pete Carroll's unit to play conservatively is that they have a rookie QB and Carroll will not want to put Russell Wilson in a position where he could make costly mistakes against the Cardinals' improved defense. In the Seahawks' next two games, vs Dallas and Green Bay, he will have to loosen the reins on Wilson, but here he should just be managing the game. Take the UNDER.
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MTi's FORECAST: ARIZONA 16 Seattle 17