Chris Jordan
Let's get to your free winner for today, as I'm siding with the Chicago Bears laying the points to the new-look Indianapolis Colts, a team I don't think is going to see that quick of improvement everyone expects to see immediately. All due respect to how good rookie Andrew Luck is and will be, he's in store for a rough welcome to the regular season by a ferocious defensive front.
Brian Urlacher, albeit an aging Brian Urlacher, leads this tenacious defense that also includes Julius Peppers, who is sure to come after Luck as much as he can, on every play.
Now while we should all be familiar with how Chicago's defense will be, let's talk about the retooled offense that is going to light up the Indy secondary. Remember who's in town to be on the receiving end of Jay Cutler's bullets: talented wide receiver Brandon Marshall. This is a battery that once played in Denver, and is now reunited in Chi-town, where Marshall made the bold statement that his Bears will be headed to New Orleans February.
I'm not even exaggerating with this team, when I tell you it just may have found the missing pieces to the puzzle, in order to compete with the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. Before, the Bears had a staunch D. Now they have a comparable offense that just might give the Packers a run for their money.
Here's a stat to chew on: Cutler has won 19 of his last 27 starts without Marshall on his receiving corps. How good do you think Chicago's gunslinger will be with a legitimate No. 1 receiver lining up wideout for him. Balancing things out will be Matt Forte, who is a dangerous utility guy who can run, pass and catch the ball.
The Colts won't have an answer for Chicago today, not with any unit. Lay the points with the Bears.
4♦ CHICAGO BEARS
Andre Gomes
Chicago Bears -9.5
Even though this game will surely be very talked due to Andrew Luck's NFL debut, I don't expect this game to end very well for the Colts, who aren't an improved team since last season, if we exclude the Quarterback position. They keep having WR Reggie Wayne as their only quality receiver in the field and with their number two receiver Austin Collie questionable due to a concussion, it's hard to believe that the Colts passing game will be effective today while being so uni-dimensional, especially against one of the best defenses in the league that kept basically the same structure from last season. Luck had a good preseason, but he struggled when he faced a top defensive team like Pittsburgh with 16-25 175 yds 0TD 2INT and the same thing should happen today. The Colts have RB Donald Brown as their main weapon on the run offense, but he won't do anything significant against a powerful Chicago DL, who has been known for their great run defense for years now. Bottom line: Indianapolis will heavily struggle on offense today, with a rookie QB, a poor and uni-dimensional receivers corps plus a RB who will be overpowered by the Bears DL.
On the other hand, the Bears will have a good matchup today to start immediately taking advantage of their improved receivers corps with WR Brandon Marshall and rookie WR Alshon Jeffrey. The Colts had a terrible pass defense last season and they didn't improve their secondary in the offseason to change that, therefore I expect QB Jay Cutler to have a field day today by exploring the mismatches the Bears will have in their favor in today's game. RB Michael Bush is joining Matt Forte in the running department and they should be able to also punish a Colts run defense who was never good even on their prime years and will continue to struggle on this new era. The Colts have changed their 4-3 formation into a 3-4, with Robert Mathias and Dwight Freeney changing from the DE position into a OLB position, something that the team obviously needs time to adjust and while that doesn't happen, I can see Indianapolis struggling even more than usual on defense, especially on the pass rushing that won't be able to explore the Bears' continuous problems on their Offensive Line.
Besides having a clear edge in both the offense and defense, the Bears have also one of the best special teams units in the league and don't be surprised if returner Devin Hester takes advantage of the Colts poor coverage on both punts and kick offs and has a big play for his team on a return. With all these edges, I believe the Bears will debut today with a home blowout and therefore, I'll be taking them in here.
Tony George
Philadelphia -9.5
No way Rookie QB Weeden can direct the offense in his first game to trade punches with loaded eagles team that is 2 deep at skill postilions on offense and a healthy Mike Vick pulling the trigger. Hate to lay this number in week 1 with any rad team, it is warranted here. Rookie RB Richardson doubtful for this one for very long with a bum knee and doubt he can make huge impact on the ground, adding to the Browns woes. Vick is 100% for this game.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Jets -3
The Jets have had Buffalo's number. They have won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 8 meetings and each of those 7 wins came by at least 4 points.
The Bills only went 1-7 on the road last season and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. I expect their road struggles to continue against a team that has been among the best in the NFL defensive over the past three seasons.
Buffalo's run defense was atrocious last year, ranking 28th in the NFL with 139.0 yards allowed per game. It was gashed by New York's run game in both of last season's losses. I like the Jets to be able to run the football effectively again here behind Shonn Greene, who I believe is poised for a monster year.
I'm also not sold on Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw 23 interceptions last season and really struggled over his final 9 contests last year.
The media is down on the Jets because of their lackluster preseason, but the regular season is an entirely different animal. The Jets went 6-2 at home last year, and I'll lay the points with them on their home field this afternoon.
Michael Alexander
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -9½
The Colts start off the Andrew Luck era today when they travel to Chicago. The problem here is that the Colts don’t have is a running game or a strong offensive line and today they'll be going up against a physical defense. Luck could have a rough debut being on the road against
such a tough defense. Indianapolis has lost the past seven times when playing on grass.
The Bears do meet the Packers next, but still have huge edges, including a big special teams advantage with Devin Hester.
Freddy Wills
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans +5½
The Titans got slaughtered last time they played the Patriots 59-0 and now they are at home and pretty sizable under dogs considering they are a playoff type team. I'm going with the Titans in this spot mainly because they have the talent offensively to score points in this game. The Patriots are strong up the middle, but the Titans will run plays on the perimeter in their running game and passing game. Jake Locker is good enough to get outside the pocket and make plays with his feet. Defensively the Titans were 9th in red zone defense while the Patriots were 17th. The Patriots were also 28th in 3rd down percentage defense and I don't see them being much better.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Eagles -9½
The Philadelphia Eagles should have no problem winning by double-digits Sunday over the Cleveland Browns. Philadelphia is my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and for good reason. This is the most talented team in the league, and that will show on the field on Sunday's all year long.
Cleveland is doing a good job of stockpiling talent to compete for the future. Unfortunately for the Browns, it's going to take a few more years for it to start paying dividends. They are relying on two rookies in Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson in Week 1, and there's no question these two will be nervous wrecks out there today.
Philly ranked No. 4 in the NFL in total offense (399 yards/game) last season, and it will be one of the most explosive offenses in the league again in 2012. Cleveland will have a hard time keeping up with the Eagles on the scoreboard, there's no question about it.
The Browns are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 1. Cleveland is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bet the Eagles Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
Green Bay Packers -5
The Packers are hungry following last seasons early exit in the playoffs. San Francisco has a good defense but isn't explosive enough offensively to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers and company this afternoon. The Packers were 15-2 in all games last season, and 14 of their victories came by more than 5 points. Green Bay has also won 8 straight vs. the 49ers. The 49ers are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. The Packers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Dave Price
Houston Texans -12½
The Texans are 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) all-time versus Miami. They won last year's meeting by 10 points on the road and will have an excellent opportunity to widen that margin at home. Houston had the second-best defense in the NFL last season, and I expect it to do a number on Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill in his first start. The Texans are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Lay the points.
Eric Williams
Jaguars vs. Vikings
Play: Over 37½
With two young - and clearly mediocre - quarterbacks taking the field in this one - I really like the Over to play out for gridiron gamblers.
No, both teams don't possess what could ever be called potent offenses, but I think this game produces at least three or four turnovers, which will then result in a number of easy scores that make the final, play just Over the O/U Total.
With the Over going 4-1 in Minnesota's last five home games, 4-1 in their L/5 games overall and 3-1-1 in the Jaguars' last five games overall, I like the Over to play out in this one!
Johnny Detroit
NY Jets -3
The NFLX was a total disaster for the Jets as Sanchez and Tebow competed for who could play worse. A major weakness of the Bills last season was the inability to get to the QB (only Titans and Bucs fared worse) and giving up TONS of yards on defense. They signed Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to help improve the D, but Week #1 is not going to be some miracle where this team suddenly turns into some defensive machine. The NFLX is in the past and the Jets should win by at least 7 to open the season.
Stan Lisowski
Jacksonville vs Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
Line drop is a bit confusing as personnel on Jaguar side is still not so good. Like Minny’s skill people and defense much more in this matchup. Jags are 6-18 outright away from home the past 3 seasons. Chalk is 65% winners vs. the number in Viking tilts against the AFC.
Bill Milton
Eagles vs Browns
Play: Eagles
I am a dyed in the wool Browns fan, so it hurts me to type those words, but I think my hometown team is in for a world of hurt here. This Cleveland team, while somewhat improved from a year ago, was a 4-12 team in 2011 and the four wins came against teams that were a combined 20-44 on the season. Here, rookie Weeden (who I am not sold on...Big 12 QB's do little for me in the NFL) will be making the first start of his career and doing so against a blitz happy defense; a tough ask. As for Philly, they have won their last three road openers by the scores of 38-3, 31-13, and 38-10, and I look for at least a 13 point win in this one. Eagles 27, Browns 14.
Harry Bondi
Arizona +3 over Seattle
The Seahawks have only been tagged as a favorite five times in the last three years and none of those games were away from home. Now, after going 7-9 last year, they go on the road (where they have covered just six of their last 16) and are being asked to lay a field goal with a rookie QB under center in Week 1? We're not buying it. Yes, the Cardinals have some issues along the offensive line and at QB, but this is still a team that rallied from a 1-6 start last season to win seven of its last nine games. The Cards also return nearly their entire defense from a year ago, when they gave up 23 points or less in those final nine games. This is an inflated number. Take the home dog.
OC Dooley
Arizona Cardinals +3
There has been an enormous line swing in a contest where Arizona at most offshore locations actually opened as a slight home favorite. It is easy to see why there is such enthusiasm for today’s visiting side as Seattle just wrapped up an incredible preseason going 4-0 SU/ATS while leading all of football in average points per game (30) and average points per game allowed (11) by the defense. But it should be pointed out that Arizona played an “extra” game in the preseason as they participated in the Hall of Fame Game contest. More importantly is the fact that the Cardinals through the years have made bettors a significant chunk of change when cast as a HOME UNDERDOG going “11-5” both straight-up and ATS, so one cannot underestimate the radical move in this particular line. Although it seems like an eternity Arizona a year ago actually closed strong winning 7 of the final 9 contests with John Skelton serving as the starting quarterback most of the way. Skelton beat out former high priced free-agent acquisition Kevin Kolb and even though not a big name, he has the knack for winning games on the scoreboard. Today he faces a Seahawks defense tied for #10 league-wide a year ago with only 33 sacks. Seattle went into the exhibition season with a “three way” battle for starting quarterback which included free-agent acquisition Matt Flynn who used to be an understudy in Green Bay. Since the Seahawks invested $26 million dollar with $10 million of that guaranteed, it comes as a personal shock that he will be watching on the sidelines. Despite an excell ent preseason Russell Wilson has been cast as a road favorite even though being a rookie quarterback that was drafted during round #3. Coming into a new regular season Arizona is relatively HEALTHY on the injury report