Joseph D'Amico
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -3½
Dallas finished last season on a 5-1 (both SU and ATS run) but went 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in the pre-season. The Cowboys, who are touted as one of the strongest teams in the NFL, won't jeopardize any of their playmakers here. San Diego is in a tough spot. Despite finishing 9-7 a season ago, the Chargers are predicted to be an 8-8 team this year. However, their offense is loaded with talented backups that could be starters on any other squads. San Diego has a lot to prove to the coaching staff, the team, and their fans. Lay the points here.
Wunderdog
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -3½
This is a tough preseason situation for the Cowboys, heading out on the road in the opener. The Dallas starters won't play against the Chargers, so the QB rotation is weak with Brandon Weeden, Dustin Vaughn and undrafted rookie Jameill Showers. Dallas coach Jason Garrett is 7-10 straight-up and 5-11-1 ATS in preseason. Dallas lost star RB DeMarco Murray in the offseason and this defense is still weak, and short on depth. San Diego is home and has a very good QB rotation, one that is deep on experience with Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemson, Brad Sorenson and Chase Rettig. A year ago San Diego opened preseason against Dallas and rolled, 27-7. In fact, they were 2-0 SU/ATS at home allowing 7 and 9 points. In that game the Chargers dominated Dallas in yards, 395-274, and riddled a suspect Cowboy secondary for 14-of-16 passing, 243 yards, 1 TD and no picks. Dallas is on a 1-7 SU/ATS preseason run under Garrett and opens 2015 with back-to-back road games, making this a great spot for the home team.
Jim Feist
Cincinnati at Los Angeles
Pick: Under
Dodger stadium is huge, great for pitchers and Cincinnati unveils Keyvius Sampson (3.00 ERA), throwing well. The Reds can't hit, 23rd in runs scored riding a 14-2-1 run under the total. LA has newcomer Mat Latos, who likes Dodger stadium allowing 1 run in 6 innings in his start against the Angels here 10 days ago.
Art Aronson
New York at Cleveland
Prediction: Over
The visitors hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (11-2, 4.15 ERA), who gave up one run over 6 1/3's innings in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Friday. Note though that it was just the second time in ten starts that Eovaldi has pitched into the seventh frame (and note that Eovaldi owns a poor 4.80 ERA on the road). The home side counters with Trevor Bauer (9-8, 4.06 ERA) who snapped a three-decision losing streak with a victory for his first time since July 8th, fortunate after giving up four runs off seven hits over 6 1/3's innings in a 9-8 win over the Twins on Saturday. Bauer has now allowed nine home runs over his last five starts and is just 4-5 with a 5.60 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. After yesterday's low-scoring 2-1 affair, all signs point to more of a wide-open slug-fest between these two scuffling hurlers, consider a second look at the OVER.
Lee Williams
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -3½
We dont expect Cowboys to show much of Weeden here and there fate will rest in hands of 2 QBS in Vaughn and Showers that are very limited at this level,so dont expect Cowboys to light up scoreboard.Charger QB rotation gives them a considerably better chance of offensive production and Chargers will want win in front of home crowd.
Marc Lawrence
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -4
Edges - Chargers: 16-8 ATS as favorites in preseason home openers, including 11-4 ATS when favored by 3 or less points. Cowboys: 2-8 SUATS in this series during the preseason. With disinterested Cowboy head coach Jason Garrett 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS as a dog during the preseason, we recommend a 1* play on San Diego.
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals
The only good thing about Jeremy Guthrie on the mound for the Royals is that the capable KC bullpen (which owns a league-best 2.29 ERA) will get plenty of work.. Despite that non-endorsement of Guthrie, we still very much like the Royals, who have beaten the skidding Angels seven straight. The Halos are also on a 9-game road losing streak after getting swept at The Cell, scoring only four runs in three games vs. the Chisox. Angels starter Garrett Richards has a subpar 4.84 ERA on the road.
Scott Spreitzer
Angels vs. Royals
Play: Over 8
The LAA offense gets "just what the doctor ordered" tonight when they face Jeremy Guthrie. The Royals' hurler has been smacked for 20 earned runs, 40 hits, and six home runs in his last four starts, spanning 23 IP. Guthrie has just 60 strikeouts in 118 IP this season, and I expect the Angels to take advantage at the plate after a horrible night last night with RISP. Guthrie has weak results against the Halos, both this season and in his previous four starts going into 2015. The Angels counter with Garrett Richards, who has struggled badly on the road in 2015. He's also been smacked around himself, allowing 14 earned runs and five homers in his last four starts, spanning 27 2/3 IP. The Angels will need Richards to "take one for the team" even if he struggles after the pen has to be feeling a little used up from their series in Chicago. The Halos roll into town on a 9-3 Over run against right-handers and a 6-1 Over run when Richards toes the road rubber.
Rob Vinciletti
New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: New Orleans Saints +3
The Saints will come to play here as they have revenge for a MNF Home loss and a loss in last years NFLX. They are 8-1 ats vs AFC teams and have covered 7 of the last 8. They are 4-0 ats week 1 and 9-1 ats as a NFLX Dog with Coach Payton. Look for a strong effort from the Saints in this one.Take the points as New Orleans surprises Baltimore.
Frank Jordan
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Oakland Athletics +127
Toronto has won 10 in a row and in first place in the AL East as they have caught the slumping Yankees. Oakland has dropped their first two in Toronto to fall 13 games under .500. Oakland will look to get back to winning with their ace on the mound in Sonny Gray going up against Toronto's veteran Mark Buehrle. Gray is coming off a complete game victory over Houston where he allowed a single run on five hits while striking out five. Gray is 8-1 on the road with a 1.64 ERA and 5-1 with a 0.97 ERA during day games. Buehrle is 12-5 on the year with a 3.34 ERA on the year and is 6-1 at home with a 3.17 ERA. Look for a great pitchers duel between young gun and crafty veteran with Gray shutting down a potent Toronto offense as Buehrle struggles against Oakland with the A's winning 4-1 on get away day.
Big Al
Texas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Over
Cole Hamels has yet to win in a Rangers uniform - in two starts so far - and he won't win this afternoon either as the newly acquired LH ace had to be scratched from today's start due to a groin issue. So instead of Hamels, the Rangers will go with RH Chi Chi Gonzalez, who had his first taste of the Major Leagues earlier this season when he was called up at the end of May. Gonzalez began his stretch of seven starts with a bang (one earned run allowed in his first 21 2/3 innings), but ended it with a crash as he lost his last three, posting a 10.13 ERA in the process, including allowing six runs in just 1 2/3 innings in his last start on July 3 against the Angels. The Twins will send RH Ervin Santana to the mound for his eighth start of the season. Since returning from an 80-game drug-related suspension to begin the season, Santana has been his normal inconsistent self, going out and either throwing eight inning gems - as in his first start of the season - or getting hammered in three or four innings. Not to be outdone by Gonzalez, Santana has a 10.93 ERA in his last three.
Will Rogers
Edmonton vs. Montreal
Pick: Montreal
The Edmonton Eskimos will travel to Montreal to take on the Alouettes on Thursday night, and the Eskies are looking to bounce back from a tough 26-23 loss in Vancouver. The Als lost by the exact same score at Ottawa on Friday, but they return home to Montreal where they are 2-1 so far this season. While Edmonton owns the top ranked defense in the CFL, and sits tied for first in the West, playing on the road in Quebec is no cake walk. We should see a close game here on Thursday night.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Home Cookin' - The Eskimos have won just once in three games on the road this season, and they've lost four of their last five trips to Montreal. In fact the Als have been a hot bet at home, covering the spread in eight of their last nine.
2. Rakeem Cato - The rookie QB has had his moments so far, and a lack of experience has been evident in his recent performances. He threw a pair of INTs in the loss at Ottawa last week, but also completed 20-of-31 passes for 301 yards and a TD. He's only going to get better, and a home game this week looks like a good spot for the rookie to shine.
3. X-Factor - Edmonton has failed to cover the spread in seven of it's last 10 meetings versus the Allouettes.
DAVE COKIN
DOLPHINS VS. BEARS
PLAY: BEARS -1.5
This does not figure to be a good season for the Chicago Bears. There are holes galore on this roster and while I can’t see how they can be as inept as they were in 2014, the climb back to respectability looks to be a little on the steep side.
But the regular season projections have nothing to do with what takes place in the pre-season. These games count only for pride, and even that is a stretch for the most part. For most coaching staffs, the majority of the August games are all about evaluation and the actual results don’t mean very much.
Nevertheless, there are some situations that arise in the exhibition portion of the campaign that can provide an edge. That’s really all that one should look for, and I think we have such a case tonight in Chicago.
The media covering the Bears are a tough crowd. There are certain NFL franchises that get treated with what amounts to kid gloves by the local beat reporters. That is not the case at all in the Windy City, and the media tone there this summer has been more than just a little bit negative.
“Are the Bears the worst team in the NFL?” That was the very first headline I saw on the Bears this summer, courtesy of the Chicago Tribune. The accompanying piece, penned by Bernie Lincicome, was hardly one that would cause readers to feel even a small sense of optimism regarding this year’s entry.
“Trying to put together a respectable NFL team this Bears training camp will be like trying to rearrange a junkyard full of used tires.”
“Introducing the starting defense—Whozat, Howzat, Whatizname and Huh?”
Those are just a couple of snippets from what was the usual outstanding Lincicome read. Go search the Tribune recent archives if you want to read the entire piece.
“Bears scrimmage successful—at keeping expectations low.” There’s another reason Chitown headline. And the beat goes on and on.
So how does this play into tonight’s game against the Dolphins? No matter how often players talk about not reading the headlines or listening to the local sports radio, or viewing the local TV sports, the fact is they always seem to be 100% aware of what’s being said about them.
The Bears know they’re being insulted and dismissed before even one snap of the first exhibition game has taken place. I think there’s a little motivation to be gleaned from that. It’s also the first home game under new head coach John Fox, and while this result won’t count in the standings, it’s my belief that Fox would like to come away from this glorified scrimmage with something positive.
If this game mattered, and I had the opportunity to take points with what could be a decent Dolphins squad against what really is likely to be a bad Bears team, I would not hesitate to pull that trigger on Miami. But the pre-season is a completely different animal, and all I’m really looking for in Week One of the NFL pre-season is some kind of an edge. In this case, that advantage is merely perception on my part, but that’s going to be enough to get me to the window this evening with the Bears as small chalk.
Brandon Shively
New Orleans Saints +3
I like the Saints here on Thursday night. This is the 1st game of the preseason and New Orleans is more of the team that has something to prove in this game. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 7-9 season and I mention this because they went 7-9 in 2012 then followed up by going 3-1 in the 2013 preseason winning their first 3 preseason games. They are now 4-0 ATS the last 4 years in week 1 of the preseason. I think they start off the season with the same sense of urgency. I will also note that in 2014 they won their 1st 3 preseason games as well.
Luke McCown and Ryan Griffin have both played good in the preseason last year. McCown is a 12 year veteran that completed 60% of his passes in the preseason last year with a 3 TD/ 1 INT mark. Griffin completed 62% of his passes with a 3 TD/ 1 INT mark also. I mention this because these guys are competing for the #2 spot of the roster. The Saints drafted Garrett Grayson and there is only room for 3 quarterbacks. I expect both guys to play at their best and to lead their team to some scores.
I will also note this is a double revenge game for the Saints. They lost to the Ravens in week 4 of the preseason last year and then lost in week 12 at home also on a Monday night. I can guarantee they remember this Monday Night loss and they will be motivated for this game. The Ravens rushed for over 200 yards in this game and DC Rex Ryan will make it an emphasis to stop the run in this game. New Orleans made it a priority in the offseason to improve their defense and their overall toughness and I expect it to show in this game.
The Ravens have Matt Schaub and Bryn Renner has their quarterbacks and neither has ever taken an official snap as a Raven. While Schaub has experience, he doesn't have experience with the team. Schaub has also been terrible the last 2 years in the NFL. Last year with Oakland he threw 2 INT in only 10 passing attempts with 3 fumbles. In 2013, he had a 10 TD/ 14 INT mark and this guy his past his prime. Renner has never taken a snap in the NFL and lacks the NFL caliber velocity after suffering a shoulder injury in 2013. I look for the Saints defense to come up big in this one with a few turnovers whether it be an interception or a sack with a strip fumble.
Sean Payton is 13-3 ATS on the road in preseason games including 9-1 ATS as an underdog. We are getting a motivated Saints team tonight with a head coach that has a proven track record on the road in the preseason. We are also getting a Saints team that has more depth and better quality and experienced quarterbacks.