Matt Fargo
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +113
After a split in yesterday's doubleheaders, the Diamondbacks head to Miami for the start of a four-game set. Arizona is two games under .500 on the road which is substantially better than its record of 14 games under .500 at home. The offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up of late, scoring three runs or less in eight of its last 10 games but tonight provides a great opportunity for the bats to come to life. Miami was looking to sweep the Cardinals Wednesday but could not solve Justin Masterson who had his best start since joining St. Louis. The Marlins have been solid a home with a 33-29 record but they are 3-11 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Brad Penny will be making his second start of the season and just his second start since 2011. He was very solid five days ago as he held Cincinnati to just one earned run on four hits over five innings but he walked four and still threw 95 pitches in the process. It will again be hard to trust him and I expect a big step backward tonight. The Diamondbacks turn to Chase Anderson who continues to pitch outstanding. He has tossed five straight quality outings while allowing only six runs total in those starts and his ERA on the season is now a solid 3.06. Arizona won four of those five games and on the season, it is 9-5 in his 14 starts. His numbers are even better on the road and he has already dominated Miami once, allowing only one run in six innings in a 9-1 victory back on July 7th.
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland A's vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -107
The Royals are smoking hot, entering today's card on a 17-4 winning run and they're on a perfect 7-0 run as home chalk. And as strong of a season Oakland is having, they have been a dead set go against as road dogs of late, dropping 3 of their last 16 in this spot. Jeff Samardzija takes the mound for the A's and while he has pitched well, overall, as a member of the A's, he has a mediocre 4.29 ERA on the road (against Houston & Seattle) and he has allowed 6 home runs in his last 6 starts. James Shields has been eating up innings for KC, especially in his last four starts, including an 8 inning performance in a 4-2 win in Oakland on August 3. Shields has been at his very best in daytime starts this season and he'll face an Oakland lineup that has scored 3 runs or less in 10 of their last 14 games, 13 of those coming after the Cespedes / Lester trade. Meanwhile, Billy Butler has been on fire for the red-hot Kansas City Royals. I expect the Royals to remain hot and extend their current run to 18-4. I'm recommending a play on Kansas City on Thursday afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Red Sox -134
The Red Sox are showing solid value at home against the struggling Astros. Houston comes in having gone just 3-6 over their last 9 games and will be hitting the road where they are a miserable 21-35 on the season. Boston on the other hand is fresh off a quick 2-game sweep of the Reds and have now won 3 in a row. Adding to all of this is the fact that the Red Sox have owned the Astros, leading the all-time series 15-4 and have never lost at home to Houston.
Boston will send out Allen Webster who is coming off his best start since joining the rotation. Webster allowed just 2 runs on 4 hits over 6 2/3 innings against the Angels and during that start he showed much better command than his previous two outings. I'll take my chances on Webster putting back-to-back strong starts together, but he might not have to pitch all that great to get a win. Houston will be starting Scott Feldman, who is 1-3 with a 8.89 ERA and 2.159 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Red Sox. In his lone outing versus Boston this season, he was rocked for 7 runs on 11 hits and 3 walks in just 5 1/3 innings of work.
Houston is 4-12 in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record, 5-12 in their last 17 during game 1 of a series and 0-5 in Feldman's last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Stephen Nover
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -116
You're not going to find me on the Rockies too much the rest of the season, but this is one exception: Jorge De La Rosa at home against fading Alfredo Simon and a banged-up Reds squad that has dropped four of their last five.
De La Rosa is one of the few who can pitch well at Coors Field. He is 4-6 with a 5.35 on the road and 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA at Coors. The Rockies have won 76 percent of De La Rosa's last 51 starts when favored at home.
Simon is 33 and already past his career mark in innings pitched for a season. The Reds are 0-5 in Simon's five starts following the All-Star Game. Simon has a 4.78 ERA during this span, which could be worse as he's issued 11 walks. The Rockies blasted him when they beat the Reds, 11-2, back on May 10 at Cincinnati. Simon surrendered five runs and eight hits, including three homers, in that defeat.
Due to multiple injuries, the Reds are starting fill-ins and platoon type players. They aren't strong enough offensively to bail out Simon.
Mike Lundin
San Diego vs. St. Louis
Play: Under 7½
The Cardinals will host the Padres for a four game set at Busch Stadium starting tonight. The guests are coming in with five straight wins, mostly thanks to good pitching, They should be able to put up a good fight and give us an old fashioned low scoring game of baseball tonight.
Eric Stults (5-13, 4.76 ) will toe the slab for the Padres, and he's coming off two really solid outings, where the veteran has conceded only two runs on nine hits over 12 2/3 innings. He may be tied for the most losses in the major leagues, but what can he do without any help from the offense. The Cardinals will hand the ball to John Lackey (12-8, 3.98 ERA) who was torched at Baltimore his last time out. He's been really solid at home all season though, posting a 3.16 ERA over 11 starts. He has recently joined from the very same Cardinals he's facing tonight.
The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last four home games, and 8-2-2 in Stults last 12 games on the road. The Padres are ranked dead last in runs scored, batting average and every other offensive category in the major leagues this season.
Jimmy Adams
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -3½
Blake Bortles threw very well in his start against the Bucs last week, finishing with a 99.4 QB rating. Whether that success continues remains to be seen, but Jag’s coach Gus Bradley is standing firm that Chad Henne will be the starter for the 2014 season. No doubt Jacksonville has high expectations for Bortles, but it’s likely we’ll see some regression here. Word out of camp is that Bortles’ footwork is slow and he has long way to go before becoming the starter. He’s also faced with having to learn from Chad Henne, who is far from a desired mentor.
The Bears looked good on the offensive side of the ball while beating the Eagles 34-28. Jay Cutler was strong, going 9 for 13 with 85 yards and a TD. Big things are expected from Cutler this year, and he appeared focused and seemed to have good chemistry with the first team. Backup QB Jimmy Clausen also looked sharp.
Both Marc Trestman and Gus Bradley have strong track records for hitting the “OVER” in their preseason games, so this one could turn into a shootout. I generally don’t like to lay more than 3 in a preseason contest, but given the talent disparity, especially with the 2nd and 3rd teamers, gives me enough confidence that the Bears will cover the number.
Steve Janus
A's/Royals Under 7
With Jeff Samardzija on the mound for Oakland and James Shields going for the Royals, I'm expecting to see a very low scoring game this afternoon. Only once in the first three games of the series has a team scored more than 3 runs and that was in the second matchup when Kansas City won 11-3.
Samardzija has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts and will have an advantage here with this being his first career start against the Royals. Shields on the other hand comes in with a red-hot 1.17 ERA and 0.826 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Another key here is that both pitchers have been dominant during day games. Samardzija has a 2.74 ERA over 11 day starts and Shields has a 2.47 ERA over 11 day starts.
Key Trends - UNDER is 20-8 in Royals last 28 home games when they come in having won at least 6 of their last 8 games, 22-9 in their last 31 home games with an OBP of .300 or worse over their last 15 and 7-1 in their last 8 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
System - Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (KANSAS CITY) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.This system is 98-51 (66%) over the last 5 seasons.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -170
The Tigers and the Pirates will play the finale of this home and home series at Comerica Park this afternoon. The home team has won all three in the series so far, and that is a trend that is likely to continue here today.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Tigers hand the ball to their ace Max Scherzer (13-4, 3.13) who's having another Cy Young caliber season, especially. The 30 year old right-hander is 8-1 with a 3.07 ERA over 11 starts at home for the season, and has been dominant versus the Pirates line-up, limiting them to an AVG of .157 over 89 at bats in previous match-ups. The Pirates are going with Francisco Liriano who's put a string of solid outings together. He has not faced the Tigers in that stretch though, luckily for him since their line-up is hitting .347 over 118 at bats versus the southpaw.
2. Home cookin' - The Tigers have won their last four home games, while the Pirates are 1-4 in their last five road games versus a right-hander.
3. X-factor - Detroit's Victor Martinez was 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs in yesterday's win. He's 13-for-27 with a home run versus Liriano lifetime.
Sam Martin
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
We scored a big +140 payout last night fading the Rockies on the runline in their loss at San Diego yesterday, but we'll back them today at home with their best pitcher going against the Reds. Colorado is a full 28 games under .500 on the season, but the majority of that losing has come away from home - they are only two games under .500 here at home.
Jorge De La Rosa has done very well here in the hitting-friendly confines of Colorado, going 7-2 with an 8-2 team start record and low 3.39 ERA - a great number considering where those 10 home starts have taken place. Reds starter Alfredo Simon has pretty good season numbers, but he's running out of gas with a 0-4 record and 0-5 team start record in his last five outings.
Ben Burns
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Rangers made a pitching change here, replacing staff ace Yu Darvish with little known lefty Robbie Ross. Why not just wave the white flag before the first pitch? This has been a miserable season in Arlington and the fact that Darvish is now heading to the disabled list again is just the cherry on top.
You'd think that trading David Price would have similarly signaled the end for Tampa Bay. But somehow, they keep winning. They've won five of seven and are actually just six games out of the Wild Card. While a return to the postseason remains highly unlikely, it's nice to see Joe Maddon's club still trying. The Rays have a positive run differential for the season. Texas has been outscored by a MLB worst 131 runs.
Jake Odorizzi will start here for Tampa. His last start saw him toss six scoreless innings. It was the 10th time in 11 starts he allowed 3 runs or less. Rays' pitching has allowed just 1.9 runs per game over the last week with a .201 opponents batting average. In three games, Texas has scored just four runs in this series.
Last night's game resulted in a 10-1 win for the Rays. The Rangers only win in this series was a somewhat fortunate result on Tuesday that took 14 innings. The Rays have been true road warriors of late, going 20-6 their last 26 games away from Tropicana Field.
As for Ross, he had a 5.10 ERA in nine appearances at Triple A. I don't envy him.
Harry Bondi
JACKSONVILLE (+3.5) over Chicago
The Bears looked great last week in a 34-28 victory over Philadelphia, but the results of that game have this week's pointspread a little inflated. After such a good showing, don't expect the Chicago coaching staff to game plan too much on offense this week. The team has already suffered a decent amount of injuries and will be looking to simply survive tonight and escape without any more unnecessary bumps and bruises. Jay Cutler will get limited snaps and then the majority of playing time at QB will go to Jimmy Clausen and Jordan Palmer. The Jags, meanwhile, didn't look great on offense last week in a 16-10 yawner over Tampa Bay. Look for QB Chad Henne to get more reps with the first-team offense in the first half and then turn the offense over to rookie Blake Bortles in the second half. Let's take the generous points with the team that has more to prove and will play its starters and second-stringers much longer.
Bob Balfe
Bears / Jaguars Over 43
The Jaguars are slowly turning into a decent football team. It will take some time, but this team is on its way. The Bears Defense last year was horrible and I don't know how much better they are going to get in a year. To make matters worse their special teams were awful last week against Philadelphia. This Bears team has a lot of big targets at wide receiver and both teams are looking to sure up their number 2 QB. Look for a lot of passing in this game. Take the Over.
Red Sox / Astros Over 9
Boston has had a tough time hitting the ball as of late so facing a bad team like the Astros is refreshing to them. Houston is not a good team, but with the payroll they have it is impressive they win games at all. Boston's starting pitcher has been rocked this year and I think this is going to be a great offensive showing between both clubs. Take the Over.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ Colorado
Pick: Colorado -116
The Colorado Rockies are well known for the fact that they simply can't hit on the road, and usually take their lumps. They are off a road trip where they went 1-5, scoring just 19 runs. It runs their road record to a dismal 18-44 on the season, but alas, they return home again where they are a completely different team. The Rockies are just two games below .500 at home, and take on Cincinnati who actually has a worse road record than that at three games under the .500 mark. The Reds send struggling all-star Alfredo Simon to the mound. Simon since the all-star break, is 0-4 with a no decision, has not won in the second half of the season. The Reds are 0-7 in their last seven road games vs. a losing team. The Rockies have been lights-out at home behind DeLaRosa where they are a masterful 44-8 in his last 52 home starts. Take Colorado.
Bruce Marshall
Nationals at Mets
Pick: Over
Acknowledge Washington's overwhelming recent success at Citi Field, where it has won 10 straight and 24 of its last 28 appearances against the host Mets. But there has been little value backing the Nats when fireballer Stephen Strasburg is on the mound away from home, where he is 0-5 with a 6.29 ERA in his last six road starts. New York has a chance to break the series losing streak at home with starter Dillon Gee, who has allowed just three runs and eight hits over 12 2/3 innings in two outings this month. Expect some runs tonight in Queens.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -134
The Rays have won 20 of their last 26 on the road and are 10-1 in their last 11 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 13-39 in their last 52 games, 15-40 in their last 55 games as an underdog and 7-20 in their last 27 at home. They are also 0-6 in Ross' last 6 starts. He's given up at least 5 runs 4 times during this stretch. Odorizzi has been pitching well, giving up 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts.