Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -133
Despite trading away David Price, the Tampa Bay Rays clearly have not quit on their season. Manager Joe Maddon has not let them, and they'll fight until the end. They are currently six games out of the final wild card spot and take on the AL-worst Texas Rangers (47-73) tonight.
Tampa Bay will be giving the ball to Jake Odorizzi, who is 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in 23 starts this season. One of those starts came against Texas on April 4th as Odorizzi pitched six shutout innings to get the victory in an 8-1 win. He is also 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three starts.
Robbie Ross is no more than a fill-in starter for the Rangers. The left-hander has gone 1-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six home starts. Ross is also 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Rays are 20-6 in their last 26 road games. Tampa Bay is 13-4 in its last 17 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is 13-39 in its last 52 games overall. The Rangers are 0-6 in Ross' last six starts.
BONES BEST BETS
ATHLETICS @ ROYALS – UNDER 7 +100
These teams have went under in 4 of 6 meetings. The As have went under in 6 of 10 overall and the Royals in 7 of 10 overall. Samardzija has been lights out since joining the As and has pitched to a 3.08 ERA and an even better 0.91 WHIP. Shields has been solid too giving up only 9 runs in his last 7 starts and 6 of those starts have went under.
PADRES ML +152
PADRES – TT OVER 3 -120
While the Padres have struggled on the road this season, they seem to have turned a corner and there is plenty of value here with the way Lackey has been pitching. Lackey has NOT been good of late. Over his past 8 starts he owns a 6.36 ERA. The Padres have wins in 11 of their past 14 games – including a 3-2 record on the road and a 2-1 series in San Diego against these same Cardinals. Stults meanwhile has been putting some solid starts together allowing more than 3 runs just once in his past 9 outings. For the team total, San Diego has scored more than 3 runs in each of their past 4 games and are averaging 5.25 in that span. Meanwhile just twice in Lackey’s last 8 starts has the opposing team scored less than 3 runs.
RAYS ML -135
RAYS F5 ML -134
With Robbie Ross on the mound for the Rangers, we expect a similar offensive output as what we saw yesterday against Mikolas. Ross owns a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.61 ERA on the season and the Rangers are just 2-7 in his starts. Tampa is on fire with wins in 5 of 7 outscoring their opponents 36-13 in that span.
Ian Cameron
Houston at Boston
Play: : Over 9
I’ve bet Scott Feldman over the total several times this season and tonight looks like another solid opportunity. Feldman has pitched well of late which he should be credited for but this is not an appealing matchup for him at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. Feldman was hammered for 7 runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings of work when he faced them back in July and has allowed 15 runs on 19 hits in 7.2 innings of work over his last two starts against Boston. Allen Webster counters for the Red Sox and he simply isn’t a pitcher that I trust to mow down opposing lineups. Webster has made three starts since joining the rotation and though he was better in his last start against the LA Angels (6.2 IP, 2 ER) in his lone start at Fenway he was roughed up by the NY Yankees for 4 runs in just 2.2 innings of work. He has been plagued by control issues with a problematic ratio of 13 walks to 8 strikeouts. Houston’s bullpen hasn’t been good all season while the Boston bullpen had to work multiple innings in each of their last two games after both previous starters pitched just 6 innings. Burke Badenhop and Edward Mujica have pitched in back-to-back games while closer Koji Uehara threw 20 pitches for the save yesterday so there should be a chance for late runs on both sides to send this game over the total.
Rocketman
Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Play: Tampa Bay -134
The Tampa Bay Rays take on the Rangers in Texas on Thursday night. Tampa Bay is 59-61 overall this year while Texas comes in with a 47-73 overall record on the season. Texas is 22-35 at home this year. Texas is 31-56 at night this year. Tampa Bay is allowing only 1.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where teams have a combined .201 batting average against them. Texas is scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall. Texas is allowing a whopping 5.7 runs per game at home this season. Jake Odorizzi is 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA his last 3 starts where he has 15 strikeouts compared to only 3 walks. Robbie Ross is 1-4 with a 4.78 ERA overall this year, 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA at home this season and 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA his last 3 starts. Ross has more walks than strikeouts (7 to 6) in his last 3 starts. Odorizzi is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his one start vs Texas in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!
River City Sharps
Padres vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7.5
Lots of reasons to like the UNDER 7.5 here tonight in St. Louis. We are going to trust that the Cardinals are going to get a solid home performance from Lackey and the Padres continue to struggle to score runs on the road. With that said, the Cardinals do struggle to consistently hit left-handed pitching and the Padres will give the ball to lefty Eric Stults, who has lots of positive trend lines working in our favor. How about the fact that in Stults last 23 games as a road dog between +110 and +150, the UNDER is 17-4-2 in those contests, while the UNDER is 18-7-1 in the Cardinals last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. There are lots more trend lines pointing towards a low scoring affair, so we're going to fire on this one.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Tampa Bay Rays in Texas, against the Rangers, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Jake Odorizzi and Robbie Ross Jr.
It still amazes me the Rangers have the second-worst record in baseball, but for awhile it was the worst. Now they're just one game better than the Rockies, who have the worst in the majors. Nonetheless, Texas, in a word, is horrible.
I don't think Odorizzi will have any trouble in handcuffing this lineup, as he's 4-1 in his last five starts with a 3.18 ERA. You throw out a loss to the Angels, and he's 4-0 with a stingy ERA of 1.77.
The Rangers hand the ball to Ross Jr., who has been recalled from Triple-A, where he was 4-4 with a 5.10 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance. Ross opened the season in the Rangers' rotation, and was 2-4 with a 5.61 ERA in nine starts.
Take the Rays here.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Craig Davis
Your free play winner for Thursday is the Mets.
Despite the fact the Nats are on a road tear recently, I still don't like the way Stephen Strasburg is pitching and I don't believe he'll be the answer to keep the streak alive for Washington tonight.
Washington has also won five of seven overall and nine of their last 11 meetings with the Mets... which is why they're such a heavy favorite on the road, but it's also a big reason I'm playing against them today.
Both Strasburg and Mets starter Dillon Gee (4-4, 3.54 ERA) are in the same "class" of pitcher so far this year, but with Strasburg's recent struggles, I'm leaning towards a Mets "upset".
Strasburg suffered his fourth loss in five starts Friday by allowing a pitiful seven runs on seven hits as the Nats lost to Atlanta 7-6. He served up four long balls and continues to struggle with command of his fastball, which makes his other pitchers rather worthless.
Take the Mets and Dillon Gee to get the job today against the Nats as your free play of the day.
4♦ N.Y. METS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Astros-Red Sox Over the total.
Look for the lumber to make some noise at Fenway Park tonight, as these teams have combined for 2 of their previous 3 meetings this season Over the total, and the Over is now 4-1 the past 5 times these American League clubs have tangled.
Scott Feldman has been an Over pitcher this season, as he has made 21 starts, and 13 of the 21 have ended up playing Over the total, including 6 of his last 8 starts overall.
Allen Webster will counter for the Sox, and in his limited time up with the club this season, he owns a 4.91 ERA.
Boston is back home after 8 in a row on the road, and they put some nice swings on the ball on their road trip, winning 5 of those 8 games. Look for the cozy confines to treat their offense right tonight.
Houston hasn't been on the road all that much this month, but 5 of their last 7 on the road have landed Over the posted price.
Astros and Red Sox to start up their long weekend with some offensive fireworks, and an Over.
4♦ HOUSTON-BOSTON OVER
Gabriel Dupont
I like the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins for my complimentary play, and I want you to list Chase Anderson ONLY in this game.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Diamondbacks - Chase Anderson. The right-hander delivered his fifth straight strong start on Aug. 8, as he also earned his seventh win of the season. Anderson is now 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts dating back to July 7.
The SMART INTANGIBLE against the Marlins - The Marlins are on another one of their surges right now, as they're in after winning the series against the Cardinals. They're nipping at the heels of the second-place Atlanta Braves, and are even within striking distance in the NL Wild Card race. So I suspect they might be a bit anxious.
In conclusion, why ARIZONA is my SMART PLAY in this game - I realize the Snakes are just 4-6 i their last 10 contests, after winning their series against the Colorado Rockies and splitting a four-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this month, but this is a good spot for them with a favorable pitching matchup.
Miami hands the ball to Brad Penny, and though I'm not listing him, I'll make note that he is making his Marlins Park-debut and first start with the team since he previously pitched for it a couple years back. He'll be commendable, but I think Arizona will get to him.
5♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Colorado Rockies, over the Cincinnati Reds, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Jorge De La Rosa and Alfredo Simon.
Not to get too long-winded here, but let's talk about the pitchers in this one, cause that's all I am basing this play on.
Cincinnati's Simon has struggled since the All-Star break, going 0-4 with a rather high 4.78 ERA over five starts. Making things worse, since this one is in Denver, is the All-Star right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in six career appearances (one start) against the Rockies. His only hope for this start is if the rain continues to pour and the game is postponed.
Meanwhile, while De La Rosa lost his last start, in which he allowed six hits and four runs in six innings, make note that start was in Phoenix. Tonight he makes his return to Coors Field, where he is 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA this year and 81-64 over his career.
Lay the home chalk and list both.
5♦ COLORADO
Brad Wilton
Tonight's comp play will come in preseason football as I look for the Jaguars and the Bears to combine to hold Under the total.
Both teams were winners in their preseason openers, but both also played last Friday night, so the teams have had one less day of preparation, and as we know at this time of the year neither will be going all-in to push for the win. Players health a much bigger issue with less than a week in between games.
The Jags held Under in their win over the Bucs, as the game ended 16-10. The Bears were one of the few teams to actually play an Over in their first game, as they combined with Philly for 52 points.
Not going to read too much into that Over, as Philadelphia under Chip Kelly is not exactly known for their staunch defense being a calling card.
Keep this in mind, 13 of the 17 preseason games played thus far have ended up holding Under the total, and I think this one does as well.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE-CHICAGO UNDER
Cajun Sports
Jacksonville vs. Chicago
Play: Over 42
The Jaguars travel to the Second City for a preseason battle against the hometown Bears. Both of these teams tend to play Over in this particular situation during the preseason. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1 Over in Game of the preseason and 5-1 Over facing off against teams from the NFC. The Jaguars games away from Jacksonville especially in Game Two of the preseason have really been on the high side with a record of 8-1 Over in this situation. The Bears also trend to the Over especially in Game Two with a record of 6-1 Over and 4-2 Over at home in this situation. Our PreSeason TPR Index projects an average points scored for the Jaguars of 22.8 points while the Bears have a total points average score for this game of 25.3 points. The Math Model projects an average total points scored for the game of 47.84 points. With solid support from both teams we will play the Over on Thursday evening.
Mike Rose
Padres at Cardinals
Play: Padres
Gonna roll the dice here and take a position on the streaking Padres who invade Busch amidst a 5-game win streak after taking two straight from the Buccos and following it up with a home sweep of the pathetic Rockies. STL has done nothing for me to believe they should be favored over anyone of this magnitude right now so long as Waino isn’t on the bump. STL currently sits in 3rd place within the NL Central, and that’s exactly where I think they end up at season’s end. It’s just been that type of season for the Redbirds with the injury bug having the roster in its sights all season long.
Anthony Michael
Jaguars +4
Many great trends here pointing to the Jags. Jacksonville is 13-1 ATS on the road against NFC teams and they are 11-3 ATS on the road off of a home game. The Bears are 1-11 ATS in the second of back to back home games and they have only covered 3 of their last 18 times when playing their second pre-season game at home. Jacksonville is 19-12 ATS as a pre-season dog and Chicago is 19-26 ATS as a pre-season favorite. Take the Jags and the points here.
Line Catchers
Jaguars + 3
It’s not often the Jacksonville Jaguars appear on national TV but they will get some national exposure as they meet the Chicago Bears on ESPN on Thursday night.
The Bears looked good in last weeks 34-28 win over the Eagles but I believe this line (-3) is slightly inflated. I fully expect the Bears to sit their starters for the majority of tonight’s game with QB Jay Cutler getting limited snaps. Jimmy Clausen and Jordan Palmer will do most of the play calling behind centre with backup players at WR and TE. It is worth noting that the Bears are only 1-3 ATS in Week 2 of the preseason the last four years.
The Jags beat the Bucs 16-10 last week and looked solid defensively in a low scoring game. QB Chad Henne should play a lot more series tonight with the first-team offense especially in the first half. Rookie QB Blake Bortles went 7-11 for 117 yards last week in two quarters of playing time and looked fairly comfortable in the pocket. The Jaguars are the team with a lot more to prove this season and winning is something they need to focus on even in preseason.