Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August, 15

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals

When the Nats host the Giants in the finale of this three-game series in the nation's capitol, Washington will send Dan Haren to the hill against Ryan Vogelsong knowing Haren is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA his last five home team starts versus San Francisco. With Haren in strong KW form with 19 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts, and Vogelsong owning a wobbly KW ratio of 7 strikeouts and 6 walks his last three starts, we'll stay at home with the Nationals here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Hollywood Sports

Atlanta at Baltimore
Prediction: Under

Baltimore (1-0) may have exploded for over 40 points last week in their easy 44-16 victory in Tampa Bay -- but don't expect this to be the norm for John Harbaugh's team this preseason. The Ravens scored these points despite only nineteen first downs and just 332 total yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 16 preseason games against NFC opponents Under the Total in the Harbaugh era. Atlanta (0-1) managed only 268 yards of offense last week in their 34-10 loss to Cincinnati on Thursday and things do not look encouraging for this offense moving forward. While many of the pundits marvel at the Falcons' skill position on offense -- especially with the addition of Steven Jackson in the backfield and the un-retirement of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez this offensive unit has some big holes on their line. After right tackle Mike Johnson broke his right fibula last week, Atlanta must now find three new starters on their line from the team that went to the NFC Championship Game. Don't expect head coach Mike Smith to keep QB Matt Ryan in this game long with the question marks with his protection. At that point, the Falcons turn to inexperienced quarterbacks Demetrius Davis and Sean Renfroe who were just 10 of 23 for 98 yards last week against the Ravens' defensive backups. Atlanta has played 8 of their last 10 preseason games Under the Total in the Smith era when playing with six days or less of preparation. And while their game last week finished Over the Total, the Falcons have played 6 of their 7 preseason games Under the Total after an exhibition game that finished Over in the Smith era. Take the Under in this one.

Matt Fargo

San Diego Chargers +5

This is a pretty uncommon line for the preseason, especially when it is not Week Three when starters get a lot of playing time. A lot of its has to do with the Chargers losing 31-10 to Seattle last week but the final result was not indicative of how the starters played. The offense put together a 13-play, 74-yard drive ending with a field goal. Philip Rivers was 5-6 for 45 yards, completing a pass to five different receivers, while Ryan Mathews gained 19 yards on three carries (6.3 ypc). On the other side of the ball, the defense played two series, forcing a punt each time. Head coach Mike McCoy was clearly more concerned about using that first game as a teaching tool, rather than trying to prove they are a good football team. This week, I expect them to go out and try to get a much needed win to get that winning attitude going, something that new head coaches strive for in the preseason to get the fan base excited. The Bears meanwhile lost in Carolina in their first game and head home in search of their first win under new head coach Marc Trestman. Therefore the new head coach theory is a wash in this game although the Bears are coming off a better season, going 10-6 but still missing the playoffs. The quarterbacks did not look great as Jay Cutler tossed an interception, Josh McCown looked lost and while Matt Blanchard put up good numbers, he threw an interception that led to a touchdown and played against a lot of third string players. Overall, the quarterbacks were sacked seven times. I think there is a lot of value in this line for the underdog in what I consider a game with two evenly matched teams.

Freddy Wills

Milwaukee Brewers +123

The Reds have been red hot, but facing the Cubs can make any team get on a roll. Now they have to face Kyle Lohse and the Brewers on the road where they are 1-5 in their last 6 visits. The Brewers are still capable of getting wins despite the absence of a lot of their stars and Kyle Lohse is a huge reason as he posts a 2.50 ERA over his last 5 starts. What is even more amazing is that he has a 1.92 ERA over his last 8 starts against the Reds dating back to 2009. He is also on 5 days rest for this match up where he has a 2.62 ERA this year when on 5-6 days rest. The Brewers are also 7-0 in their last 7 home games and will face a lefty which their offense has hit well.

Tony Cingrani has been fantastic but he's on 4 days rest and he already struggles with control. The Brewers are facing him for the third time already which is a lot since Cingrani has not been starting for long. The Brewers are ranked 8th in OPS vs. LHP and over their last 10 games they are hitting .316 and scoring 10.70 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I think they could break out here again with some more runs while the Reds struggle against a quality pitcher that they have a history of struggling against and in case you are wondering the Brewers bullpen has been terrific posting a 1.93 ERA over the last 10 games.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Lance Lynn (1-2, 20.2 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.61 ERA)
Dan Haren (3-0, 21 IP, 0.67 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Tony Cingrani (1-2, 17 IP, 0.88 WHIP, 1.59 ERA)
Tyson Ross (2-1, 21 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Anibal Sanchez ( 3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 2.08 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Phil Hughes (1-2, 11 IP, 2.45 WHIP, 11.45 ERA)
Mike Pelfrey (1-2, 14 IP, 2.07 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 15.1 IP, 1.89 WHIP, 6.46 ERA)

Jim Feist

Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Under 7½

A pair of red-hot pitchers who have excellent control are on the mound. Cincinnati has Tony Cingrani (2.87 ERA), who has a 1.59 ERA his last three starts striking out 23 in 17 innings with only 5 walks! The under is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 road games. They face a weak Milwaukee offense and the under is 12-2 in Brewers last 14 home games. At least they have Kyle Lohse (3.26 ERA) going, who has a 2.50 ERA his last three starts. And when these teams meet the under is 19-6-3 in the last 28 meetings.

Art Aronson

Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 7½

AJ Burnett (5-8, 2.95 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Burnett is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out three over 5 2/3's innings in his team's eventual 6-4 setback at hitter friendly Coors Field on Saturday. Burnett has been as solid as you can expect this year though, with efforts likes his previous being a definite oddity (note that the veteran had given up just one earned run in each of his previous three outings). Burnett will bring his respectable 3-3 and sparkling 2.42 ERA road record into St. Louis to throw opposite Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.79 ERA) who was unfortunate to get saddled with a loss after giving up three runs off three scattered hits and five walks while striking out five over 6 2/3's innings in a 3-0 setback to the Cubs on Friday. Despite the unfortunate result, Lynn has given up seven earned runs spanning his last 27 2/3's frames of work. And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Lynn will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that in three earlier meetings vs. the Bucs this season he's for the most part absolutely dominated them, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (take note of Lynn's home numbers as well; a healthy 8-2 with a sharp 2.78 ERA). This series has featured some great matchups on the mound and this particular one is no exception; two quality hurlers facing off means that the "under" once again becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

Hollywood Sports

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Boston (72-50) is hoping that their recent acquisition of Peavy will reap dividends -- but the right-hander has struggled on the road all season with a 6.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .295 opponent's batting average as compared to his strong 2.59 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .208 opponent's batting average when at home. Toronto (55-65) has won 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. They counter with Buerhle who is 8-7 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been even better at home where he sports a 3.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .257 opponent's batting average as compared to his 5.90 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .290 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Blue Jays have won 7 of their last 8 home games with Buehrle on the mound. Additionally, Toronto has won 10 of their last 13 games with Buehrle pitching with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. He should fare well against this Red Sox team that has lost 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays +120

Jake Peavy has been a bit overrated since making the move to Boston. That has created a strong value play on the Blue Jays for today's matchup. Peavy has a 5.68 ERA in his last three starts and he has a 6.65 ERA on the road this season. For Toronto, Mark Buehrle has a 3.09 ERA at home and the Blue Jays are 9-3 in his 12 home starts.

Boston is at their worst when facing a left handed starter. Their scoring average drops from 5 runs per game down to 4.4 against lefties, and they go from a .273 batting average to a .260 batting average in those games. The Blue Jays have done a great job of putting runs on the board at home. They score 5.0 runs per game and should have no problem exceeding that average today against Peavy.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Eagles -3

This game fits a solid week 2 specific system we use that plays on home favorites off a straight up and favored home loss in week 1.The Eagles have won and covered all 3 times of late vs NFC South teams like Carolina and Philly has covered 5 of the last as a favorite. Carolina has failed to cover in 5 of the last game twos. The Eagles will be focusing on offense and had 452 yards in their opener. Chip Kelly plays to win and when asked about the offense and Qb situation he said the following."We're going to pull the trigger before we game plan for the (season opener against the) Washington Redskins," Kelly said after the game when queried about the QB competition. "We have to have a quarterback in place when we're really getting ready and getting into the meat and potatoes of what our game plan is going to be. That quarterback will be named." No vanilla offense here tonight, After those comments and the game Power System we will lean with Philadelphia.

Jesse Schule

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5

The Brew Crew will return home Thursday from a successful road trip, winning six of nine in San Francisco, Seattle and Texas. Scooter Gennette has been swinging a hot bat, the 23 year old came into last night's game riding a six game hitting streak. He was 8-for-15 with three home runs on the road trip. Kyle Lohse will toe the slab for the home side Thursday, and he's been very sharp in recent starts. Lohse (8-7, 3.26 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits, striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Mariners his last time out. He's 3-0 over his last five starts, and the Brewers have won all five of those games. His numbers at home are encouraging, with a record of 5-2, 3.21 ERA in 11 starts. He's 1-0 with a 2.94 ERA in two previous starts versus the Reds this year, with the victory coming at Miller Park. He earned a no decision in a 4-3 loss at Cincinnati. The Reds hand the ball to Tony Cingrani, who is putting up decent numbers for Cincy this year. The 24 year old doesn't log a lot of innings, and he allowed a pair of runs on just a pair of hits over five innings in a loss to San Diego his last time out. He lost to the Brewers at Miller Park back on July 9, allowing just two runs on three hits over seven innings in a 2-0 ballgame. With the Brewers swinging the bats well, and sending a hot pitcher to the mound, I like the home team as a significant underdog here on Thursday.

Bruce Marshall

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees

The Angels continue to fall further and further into the abyss, their latest losing streak at four games after being blasted for the second straight day by the Yankees. Only on Wednesday if was ace Jered Weaver getting roughed up in an 11-3 loss. To avoid the 4-game sweep on Thursday, the Angels need starter C.J. Wilson to perform better than he has lately, allowing 11 runs and 27 hits over 16 2/3 IP (5.94 ERA) covering his last three starts. That might be a chore vs. a rejuvenated Yankees lineup that has scored 25 runs the past two nights and ought to give starter Phil Hughes some needed run support this afternoon in The Bronx, where the Halos have lost 20 of their last 26.

Vegas Connection

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Pick: San Francisco Giants

Giants trying to turn it around as SF has struggled since the World Series celebration who has been resilant over the years. He was terrible went Japan for 2 seasons then came back to the States and became All Star pitcher. He was hurt earlier this year but will give 110 percent the rest of the way. Giants win in DC.

Bryan Power

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Cincinnati

The Reds have been kind to me in recent days. In fact, I've cashed them each of the last three days as a "free play" as they swept the Chicago Cubs. At the same time, I've gone 7-2 w/ my premium releases in MLB. Let's stick w/ Cincy Thursday as they open up a series with the lowly Brewers.

The Reds will throw out lefty Tony Cingrani tonight. I like the matchup. Not only is Cingrani 5-2 in his 11 starts w/ a 2.69 ERA and 1.021 WHIP, but he'll be facing a Milwaukee lineup that's only 11-24 vs. southpaw starters in 2013 while averaging only 3.6 runs per game. Cingrani has faced the Brewers twice this season with the team winning once and losing once. Interestingly, he pitched much better the last time when he lost. He struck out 10 and allowed just two runs in seven innings.

The Reds are a season-high 16 games over .500 and have a run differential of +81, which is the fifth best in all of MLB. Wednesday marked the pitching staff's 12th shutout of the season, matching last year's total, and was their second in three games. Overall, the team has won four straight and seven of its last eight. Cincinnati is simply much better at this point than Milwaukee.

Will Rogers

Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

It appears as if the Royals are slowing down. They come into Detroit having lost two straight games to Miami, at home no less. Needless to say, this is not the way you want to come in when getting set to play the best team in the American League. I see the Tigers rolling in Thursday's series opener.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Anibal Sanchez - The Tigers' starter has posted a 1.63 ERA his last four starts, all of them resulting in team victories. He has a 2.58 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He's actually made five consecutive quality starts, but was a hard luck loser to the Royals back on July 19th in Kansas City, losing 1-0. In three career starts vs. Kansas City, Sanchez has a 0.82 ERA.

2. Homefield Advantage - Detroit has won nine straight at Comerica Park, outscoring its opponents 53-10. Sanchez is 6-2 this year at home with a 2.08 ERA. He's pitched 56 1/3 innings and registered 70 strikeouts. Since the start of last season, the Tigers are an outstanding 24-5 at home as a money line favorite of -175 to -250. Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie is 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA his last eight road starts and has a 6.19 ERA his last three starts in the Motor City.

3. X-Factor - Kansas City is 0-3 as an underdog of +175 or higher this season with all of those games coming on the road.