Jason Sharpe
Detroit over Cleveland
Some teams and coaches take the NFL Preseason a little more serious than others, and then there is the Detroit Lions, who under head coach Jim Schwartz have been 'preseason killers,' easily the unofficial champions of the NFL exhibition season over the past five years. Since Schwartz has taken over the Lions, Detroit has gone 13-4 overall in their preseason games. Watch just one of the Lions preseason contests and you will see right away why this is as the Lions play a much more wide-open game than most teams during these contests. In their preseason opener Detroit threw the ball almost 40 times in the game, and these aren't safe normal throws either, but instead the Lions throw the football down the field. Much of their preseason success stems from the fact that the Lions have one of the top backup quarterbacks in the league, which is a must for preseason success.
The Cleveland Browns won their preseason opener also last week, but they didn't look as good doing so as most winning teams do. The Browns were outgained by a sizeable advantage and allowed more than one yard per play more than they gained overall. The key to the game was the Browns success on third downs, a big punt return for a touchdown and their 3-0 edge in the all important turnover category. Take those things away and the Browns were actually outplayed by the Rams in this contest. The first home game is always a big preseason opening game for a new head coach. It gives the fans a chance to see what the team will look like this season, etc. A big sense of excitement usually comes from this contest, and we saw it again last week with the Browns in their win over the St. Louis Rams. Things aren't nearly as important here in this second preseason contest, and it wouldn't surprise me that we would see a big letdown here in this game from the Browns.
Ray Monohan
Los Angeles Angels +105
The Angels got spanked yesterday which was a bit of a surprise with Jered Weaver on the mound. Today they have an advantage in a matchup between C.J. Wilson and Phil Hughes. Wilson is a solid 7-3 on the road this season and beat the Yankees in his lone start against them this season. He is on as good a run as he has had since joining the Angels in winning 8 of his last 10 starts and will not be intimidated at all by the surroundings. He is a professional and will continue to bring it in this lost season for Los Angeles. He just has to keep his free passes to a minimum. Smaller card today but good value on this small road underdog.
Doug Upstone
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8½
On Thursday, Play OVER on teams like the L.A. Angels when the total is 8 to 8.5, with an AL starting pitcher (C.J. Wilson 12-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.353 WHIP) whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games. Since 2009, this baseball total system is 51-21. For good measure, Wilson is 8-0 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 since joining the Halos.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres -137
I'll lay the juice on the San Diego Padres tonight as a home favorite over the New York Mets. Given the edge the Padres have on the mound, I'll gladly back them at this price.
Tyson Ross has been one of the best starters in the league that not too many folks have heard about. The right-hander is 3-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.208 WHIP in seven starts and 20 relief appearances.
Ross has gone 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in those seven starts this year, striking out 40 batters over 41 innings. He has been dominant of late, going 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three starts despite facing three of the best lineups in baseball in the Reds, Yankees and Diamondbacks.
The Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Padres are 10-2 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. San Diego is 13-5 in its last 18 games as a home favorite. The Padres are 4-1 in Ross' last 5 starts. San Diego is 13-5 in its last 18 home meetings with New York. Bet the Padres Thursday.
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L.A. Angels @ N.Y. YANKEESFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phil Hughes is a train wreck pitching at Yankee Stadium and becomes an instant fade when favored. In a season of ups and downs, Hughes’ is on a serious down point right now. Each of his past three starts has been brutal and he has lasted only a combined 11 innings in them and that includes a 2.2 inning stint in San Diego. During his last three games, Hughes has a 2.04 WHIP and a BAA of .412. Overall, he has a heavy 48% fly-ball tilt, which does not play well in his home ballpark. In 12 home starts this season, Hughes is 1-8 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 62.2 innings. The Yanks have won just four of Hughes’ last 15 starts and that tells us when he starts, the Pinstripes chances of losing are greater than winning.
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By contrast, the Angels have won eight of C.J. Wilson’s last 11 starts. When this guy pitches, the Halos, for whatever reason, give him tremendous run support. Over Wilsons’ past four starts, the Angels have scored 7, 5, 11 and 8 runs and prior to that they scored 13 and 14 runs in two of three starts. Wilson has 33 K’s over his last 32 innings and overall he has 143 K’s over 152 innings. Wilson has also had great success against the Yankees, holding current Yankee batters to a .218 BA over 239 career AB’s against him. The Yankees have scored 25 runs over the past two games and they’ve also won the first three games of this series. If the Angels have any dignity left in them whatsoever, they will come out focused and play hard. No team wants to suffer a four-game sweep in New York in such humiliating fashion and the Angels figure to dig down deep to avoid that.
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MILWAUKEE +125 over CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee has historically been one of the best home teams in baseball. The Brewers are having a miserable year overall but they’re just four games under .500 at home and that’s when couldn’t get out of their own way. Since the dust has settled in the Ryan Braun scandal and despite losing last night, the Brewers are playing some very decent ball right now. Back at home after a long road trip, Milwaukee offers up some tremendous value with Kyle Lohse going. It seemed Kyle Lohse was unlikely to duplicate his 2011 and 2012 numbers this year, much less improve on them from a skills perspective but that's precisely what he has done. Lohse rarely walks a batter. His groundball rate has increased this season to 44%, up from 40% over the past two years. Lohse is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA over his last seven starts at Miller Park and Milwaukee has emerged victorious in each. He's also 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five games overall and the Brewers have also won each of those. It gets even better. Against the Reds, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA over his last eight starts. Lohse and the Brewers are much undervalued here.
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Tony Cingrani is far too risky to back, but his surface stats may lead you to believe otherwise. In seven starts since July 1, his strikeout rate is solid and holding steady, but a 23% hit rate and 80% strand rate have helped him put up a 2.23 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, despite having a 4.42 xERA. Cingrani has tremendous potential but he has not learned to trust his stuff yet and that’s a huge hurdle that many pitchers never overcome. Cingrani is what we call a plate nibbler. He throws a ton of pitches per at bat and he is often in a 3-2 count. It’s not unusual for Cingrani to throw 100 pitches in five innings because he’s always nibbling. At this level you cannot allow hitter’s to see six or seven pitches every AB and expect to succeed. Cinci has lost six of Cingrani’s last 10 starts and in those starts, Cingrani has lasted five innings or less in half of them, not because he was whacked but because he threw a ton of pitches. The Reds have been terrific at home this year but on the road they are under .500 and in no way should they be this big a price in Milwaukee.
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Steve Janus
Boston Red Sox -122
I look for the Red Sox to bounce back from last night's loss and take the series against the Blue Jays behind newly acquired starter Jake Peavy. Peavy is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.086 WHIP over five career starts vs the Blue Jays (4-1 team record). Toronto will counter with Mark Buehrle, who has a struggled over his career vs Boston, posting a 4.64 ERA and 1.427 WHIP in 22 starts. Buehrle was tagged for 5 runs on 7 hits (3 HRs) in his only start at home against Boston this season.
Boston has been a great team to back coming off a close loss the previous time out. The Red Sox are a dominant 18-5 over their last 23 games following a loss by 2 runs or less. Even with last night's win, the Blue Jays are a miserable 3-13 over their last 16 home games vs a team with a winning record and are 0-4 in Buehrle's last 4 starts inside the division.
Big Kat Sports
Giants vs. Nationals
Take: Under 8.5
Two teams that had high expectations coming into season will meet this afternoon when the San Francisco Giants travel to our Nation’s Capital to take on the Nationals. Both squads are all but out of the playoff race and both were expected to contend for the 2013 Word Series coming into the season. The Nats will send Dan Haren to the hill this afternoon. Haren has struggle all season for Washington, posting a 7-11 record with a 4.99 ERA. He has been better than that as of late, posting a three straight wins while allowing just 3 runs in 21 innings during that stretch. San Francisco will counter with Ryan Vogelsong, who will be making his second start after returning from a broken hand back in June. He is 2-4 on the season with a 6.71 ERA but allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings in his first start off the DL.
Here are a few trends that have us leaning towards the under in Washington this afternoon:
•Under is 6-1-1 in Giants last 8 games as an underdog.
•Under is 9-3-1 in Giants last 13 overall.
•Under is 4-0-1 in Vogelsong’s last 5 starts as an underdog.
•Under is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
•Under is 4-1-1 in Haren’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Pair those trends with the fact that the Under has a 3-1-1 record in the last 5 head to head match-ups between these two teams and we’ll roll with under 8.5 runs, looking for one of Haren or Vogelsong to have a strong outing this afternoon.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees -115
The New York Yankees have struggled for offense the entire season. They are now getting healthy, and thus far have made what has been the best move at the trade deadline in picking up Alfonso Soriano. Soriano is on fire with 4 HRs and 13 RBI in his last two games. The Yankees' lineup looks a lot more threatening now with Granderson, Soriano, and A-Rod in the middle. The Bombers crushed Angels' ace Jered Weaver last night, as he allowed 9 runs. New York has now scored 25 runs in their last two games, and has won four straight. The Angels are just 3-15 in their last 18 as a dog, and the Bombers are 40-19 behind Hughes in his last 59 as a home chalk. Take New York.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Over in the Lions-Browns preseason game.
I love it in the preseason when I get a team that is in the midst of a starting quarterback competition, and that is exactly what we have going on with the Cleveland Browns.
Head coach Rob Chudzinski is looking at both Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell, and that fact assures us of a Cleveland offense that will be taking its shots at cracking the end zone.
The Browns did come up with 27 points last Thursday night in their 27-19 win at home over the Rams. The game also cracked the posted total of 35.
Detroit also has a successful preseason opener, winning at home over the Jets 26-17 in a game that also went over the total of 36 1/2 points.
The total for tonight's game is a little higher for both teams, but the stakes tonight are also a little higher for the Cleveland QB rotation.
Expect the points to be delivered as the Lions-Browns go Over the total.
3♦ DETROIT-CLEVELAND OVER
Brad Wilton
My Thursday free play is the Under in the Royals-Tigers game.
Big Under stats I am looking at as the Royals and Tigers get set to tee it up for the next 4 days, as these teams have held Under the total in 5 of their last 6 meetings this year, and 8 of their last 10 overall dating back to last season.
Kansas City hits Comerica Park on a 6-1-2 Under clip their last 9 games played, and will send Jeremy Guthrie to the mound as he looks to keep his mark clean against Detroit. Guthrie was the winner over the Tigers on July 20th, as he improved to 4-0 his last 5 starts against Detroit with an ERA of 3.86.
The Under is 4-2-1 the last 7 times Guthrie has been mound-bound.
Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers, and Sanchez has been very tough on the opposition of late, as Sanchez has won his last 3 with a 1.63 ERA along the way. At home Sanchez is 6-2 with a 2.08 ERA in his 8 starts this season.
The Under has gone 3-1-1 the last 5 times Sanchez has been on the hill.
Too many Under trends coming into this one, so play those trends and look for the Royals and Tigers to open their 4 game set with a low-scoring affair.
3♦ KANSAS CITY-DETROIT UNDER
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Eagles are going to struggle this year with a totally new offensive system, but in a preseason game like tonight I think they will run the ball well as they will have all of their running backs playing in this game. Vick and Foles have been on the team playing with this group of guys for sometime. There is an open QB competition this year so all the quarterbacks are going to be playing to win instead of going through the motions. I question the depth the Panthers have at running back and receiver this year. They are trying to make Cam Newton more of a pocket passer and I think that is going to take time. This will be a sloppy game filled with mistakes, but I think the Eagles get the win under new head coach Chip Kelly. Take Philadelphia.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
CLEVELAND -1.5 over Detroit: Both teams are of nice wins last week, but have to feel that Cleveland wants this game just a bit more. The New regime wants to build a winning attitude and I feel they will be taking the pre-season a bit more serious that some other teams in the league. Detroit beat the Jets last week but I don't feel that their defense played all that well, as they allowed a team with some of the worst QB in the league to put up 292 yards passing, while also being out gained in this game by 7 yards. This Jet's offense will struggle to score this year, yet they really had their way with Detroit in this one. Cleveland also had their problems vs the pass, but they also didn't take on a high school contingent of QB's as St Louis has a much better stable of QB's than the Jets do. Both teams should score some pints in this one, but I feel in the end that Cleveland will want this game just a bit more. What better way to win over fans than to win their first two pre-season games under a new regime at home.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -3 over Carolina: Philadelphia fans are not happy about last week's loss and neither is Chip Kelly. This guy is very competitive and hates to lose any game, and I see no difference even though this is a pre-season game. Kelly needs to get his fans back on his side so I expect the eagles to take this one just a bit more serious than the Panthers will.
Cleveland/ Detroit Over 41.5: As I stated in the writeup above, both teams struggled vs the pass in game 1. Detroit was just very bad vs much worse QB's then the ones they will see in this one. Cleveland allowed 304 yards passing to St Louis in their opener and could allow big yards vs Stafford and company. Both teams are passing teams and will look to air it out tonight vs a couple of suspect secondaries. 45+ points in this one. KEY TREND: Cleveland is 6-1 OVER in their last 7 games during week 2 of the preseason.
1 UNIT PLAY
BALTIMORE -4.5 over Atlanta: Just have to feel that Baltimore will come out an look to beat up on a very overrated Atlanta team. The Falcons might not even make the playoffs this year. Look for Baltimore to take this one by at least 7 points.
Joe Gavazzi
Chicago White Sox +120
Must reduce the rating on this play out of respect for the recent Chicago road record which finds the Pale Hose to be 7-29 on the road, including losses in their last 10. But every dog has its day in MLB. Such is true of the White Sox who are on a 6-4 run after taking 2/3 from division leader Detroit. Now we get a favorable pitching matchup with Rienzo who has posted a 1.38 ERA in 2 road starts. Far prefer the youngster over veteran Pelfrey who in his last 15 starts has gone 1-7 with a 4.95 ERA. That is even worse for the year at home where Pelfrey has 5.43 ERA and in 3 starts against the light hitting Southsiders, Pelfrey has posted a 7.80 ERA.
Tony Karpinski
White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Under 9
Lets back the White Sox and Twins UNDER the total of 9 runs here on Thursday night. Pelfrey was roughed up the last time he faced the WhiteSox last Saturday so I expect a much better effort and him to be focused tonight.WhiteSox start Rienzo is pitching better each start and gaining confidence. Look for both starters to do deep into this game and very few runs to be scored tonight.
Teddy Covers
Carolina vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Over
Philly’s game against the Patriots saw the total get steamed up, and it still went Over by two scores. The markets have pushed this total higher, but not high enough. Chip Kelly’s ‘one play every twelve seconds’ offense merits totals in the high 40’s, even in preseason.
Carolina is going to play at the Eagles pace tonight. The Panthers have practiced playing an uptempo style on both sides of the football all week. Philadelphia’s defense couldn’t stop anybody last week – horrible tackling, a limited pass rush, poor play from their rebuilt secondary, along with concerns about both depth and conditioning. A fast paced offense combined with a suspect defense is a strong recipe for Overs!
Both teams have solid QB rotations. Once Cam Newton sits for Carolina, they’ve got a pair of veterans ready to come in and light up second and third string defenders – Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen; a duo that combined for 184 passing yards on 24 attempts last week. For the Eagles, Nick Foles gets the start followed by Michael Vick; a legitimate battle for the starting QB job. Matt Barkley threw 22 passes in a backup role last week; and Dennis Dixon is the type of dual threat QB Over bettors love in the second half of preseason games. CJ Kinne has similar run/pass skills.