Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday August, 16

Carlo Campanella

Cincinnati vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -3½

It was only their first preseason game, but NFL teams don't want to allow 31 points ever. After losing 31-17 to the Ravens last Thursday, you can be sure that Atlanta HC Mike Smith will have his team ready for a better defensive effort in front of a home crowd. That loss wasn't as bad as the score indicates, as Atlanta held the Ravens to only 7 points in the first half, and things didn't get out of hand until the backups gave up 17 third quarter points. Lay the points as the Falcons are 9-1 ATS as preseason favorites after losing by 10 points or more.

John Ryan

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals

5* graded play on Bengals as they take on the Falcons in NFL exhibition action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, August 16, 2012. Both teams have played one exhibition game with completely differing results. The Bengals defeated the New York Jets 17-6 and easily covered the 1 ? point favorite line. The Bengals gained 86 rushing yards on 36 carries and completed 13-of-24 pass attempts for 127 yards. Most important for the Bengals is that they had no turnovers in the game.

The Jets played poorly and not surprising given the media frenzy and on field distractions involving brawls taking place at practice. The Jets gained 116 rushing yards on 27 carries and completed just 12 passes of 20 attempted for 57 passing yards. I think pretty much any NFL can defeat the dysfunctional and unfocused band of football players from New York right now.

The Falcons got it handed to them 31-17 by the Baltimore Ravens and failed to cover as skinny one point favorites. The total easily played OVER the posted total of 35 points. The Falcons gained 71 rushing yards on 21 attempts and gained 273 passing yards on 24-for-43 passing. The defense allowed the Ravens to gain 118 rushing yards on 35 carries and 203 passing yards on 24-for-44 passing. The difference in this game was that the Falcons had four turnovers to the Ravens one.

Simulator Projections

The simulator shows a high probability that Bengals will lose this game by three or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-33 for 66% winners since 1993. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing three points or less in the first half last game.

First Half Wager Opportunity

The current line for the first half shows most shops to have the Falcons installed as two point favorites. This supporting first half system has produced a 31-11 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2002. Play against favorites using the first half line in non-conference games and are off an upset loss as a home favorite.

The Bengals will look to make significant strides on offense in order to compete with division foes Pittsburgh and Baltimore this season. In 2011, the defense played solidly and ranked ninth allowing 211.6 passing yards per game and 10th allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game. It was the offense that sputtered and ranked 20th gaining 208.8 passing yards per game and 19th averaging 111.1 rushing yards per game.

On defense, there have been further improvement. One of the surprises and ?good feel? stories is the emergence of linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who showed at camp as undrafted free agent. He had several problems while attending Arizona State and simply took his projected first round draft status for granted. Well, he gained far too much weight, didnt work out, and when he was looked at during the combines put in some very weak efforts. The results was that he was not even drafted among the 253 players in 2012. Well, that has been a blessing for the young man and he has gotten his act together and head coach Lewis has said that unquestionably he will be a starter this season.

The Bengals are already very deep at linebacker and will augment an improving defensive unit. Keep an eye out for him tonights game as he will be a playmaker in this game. Take the Bengals.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels

Tampa Bay has their ace on the mound but this is a tough situational spot playing their 7th straight road game and the last four out West, 3,000 miles from home. That's a lot of road travel and crossing several time zones. The Angels are home playing their 7th straight home game. Tampa Bay has a popgun offense, ranked 21st in runs scored and 26th in slugging. LA goes with righty Dan Haren who is 7-3 with a 2.60 ERA against the Rays, including a 1.50 ERA this season. Play the LA Angels.

Marc Lawrence

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: New York Mets

The Mets and Reds put the wraps on this three-game series in Cincinnati where Matt Harvey matches serves with Homer Bailey. The glaring stat in this matchup is Bailey's lousy current form as he enters tonight's fray with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. Bailey also sports a home ERA (5.35) that is nearly 2.5 runs worse than his road ERA (2.92) this season. With the host in Bailey's career team starts 0-3 in this series, look for the Mets to improve to 12-1 on Thursdays, their best day of the week this season, here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Hollywood Sports

San Diego at Atlanta
Prediction: Under

Atlanta (68-49) will be a heavy favorite at home for this contest -- and they have played 5 straight home games Under the Total as a favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. The Braves have also played 8 straight home games Under the Total with the number in the 7-8.5 range. They send out Medlen who appears entrenched in what will currently be a six-man rotation for Atlanta. For the season, Medlen is 3-1 with 2.28 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in his first year coming off Tommy John surgery. Over his last three starts since joining the rotations, Medlen has been outstanding with a 2-0 record along with a 1.62 ERA and a strong 16:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Braves' last 5 home games with Medlen on the mound. San Diego (52-67) counters with Marquis who is 8-10 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.41 combined this year with the two teams he has pitched for this year. But since coming over to the National League with the Padres, Marquis has been a solid 6-6 with a 3.66 ERA -- and over his last six starts, the veteran right-hander sports a 5-1 record along with a 3.60 ERA. He should fare well against a Braves team that has played 5 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. Take the Under in this one while listing both starting pitchers.

Scott Spreitzer

Rangers at Yankees
Prediction: Over

I've posted the Yankees on these pages each of the last two days and we won both games. And while the Rangers have truly struggled against teams with a winning record since June 1, I don't trust Ivan Nova enough to call on New York for the third straight game. But I do believe we have a solid shot at cashing the Over. Derek Holland and Nova are both in tough situations today. Neither has much success in afternoon starts and Nova has been roughed-up for a 6.16 ERA & 1.58 WHIP in nine home starts this season. Holland owns a horrible, 9.26 ERA & 2.03 WHIP in seven lifetime appearances (six starts) against the Yanks. He was crushed by them early this season in a 7-4 Yankee win and I expect more of the same in this one. The Yankees plate nearly 6 rpg against lefthanders this season, while the Rangers average 5.3 rpg in road day games against righthanders. I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Rangers & Yankees on Thursday.

Matt Fargo

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds

It has certainly been a run of streaks recently for the Reds as they went on a 15-1 run only to follow that up with five straight losses but they have responded to win their last five games. They have taken control of the National League Central as they have a seven-game lead over the Pirates and the Cardinals so barring any sort of complete meltdown, they are looking pretty good. The pitching has been outstanding of late as Cincinnati has allowed a total of three runs over its last four games and it could use some more of that tonight with Homer Bailey on the mound. He has struggled over his last three starts as he has allowed 14 runs in 14 innings but this is a good spot to come out of that funk. He tossed five straight quality outings prior to this so the potential is there for a rebound. The Reds have won seven of his last eight starts. New York has seen a once promising season go up in flames as they have lost 23 of their last 32 games to fall totally out of the playoff picture. The Mets offense has really struggled as they have scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games so that only helps Bailey's cause. They send Matt Harvey to the hill and this is just his fifth start of the season. Three of his first four have been good and he is coming off a quality outing in his last game. The issue is that he following up his first quality start by allowing five runs in five innings at San Diego and now he faces one of the hottest teams in baseball.

Stephen Nover

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Milwaukee Brewers knew they would have to overcome the free agent loss of Prince Fielder if they were going to challenge again for the NL pennant. What they didn't know was that they have a huge hole at shortstop due to injuries and that their bullpen would blow a major league-worst 23 games. The Brewers return to Miller Park after dropping five of six on the road to the lowly Astros and Rockies. Their bullpen cost them another game last night. Returning home from a road trip usually can be mentally draining and it's doubly worse here as morale is shot for the Brewers. Their closer situation looks hopeless with John Axford, Francisco Rodriguez and now Jim Henderson all failing to do the job. Ryan Braun is batting .143 in his last 10 games. The Brewers' lack of heart is evident in their 4-12 record following a loss and 6-18 record the past 24 times they've been an underdog. Cliff Lee isn't having a Cliff Lee type of season. But he still rates a stronger edge than this line when facing Marco Estrada, who has a 4.36 ERA. Estrada has failed to win during his last 14 starts. He has a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances against the Phillies. The Phillies have defeated the Brewers seven of the past eight times at Miller Park.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: New York Mets

The Reds fit a system where home favorites have lost all seven times the last nine seasons. We want to plays against any home favorite off a home dog win if they had 10 or more hits, vs an opponent off a road favored loss and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits and left 2 or less men on base. The system only comes up 7 times in 9 years but the dog has won all seven times. M. Harvey makes the starts and he has been decent for the most part in his few starts. His 3.86 era is decent compared to the 5.35 home era that Reds starters Homer Bailey has this season. Bailey has struggled of late with an era near 9 the last 2 starts. He has a 7.41 era vs the Mets and allowed 9 earned runs in 4 innings in his only home starts against them. The Mets are a nice 11-1 on Thursday this season. The Reds may struggle with a hard throwing right after facing knuckle baller R.A. Dickey last night. Look for the Mets to surprise the Reds tonight.

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels

I successfully played against the Rays yesterday. They were blanked at Seattle, failing to record a single hit. While I respect Price, this looks like another solid spot to go against them.

These teams have gone in opposite directions of late. The Angels recently lost five of six. However, they've snapped out of their funk by winning each of their last two games, both victories coming in convincing fashion.

The Rays, on the other hand, recently won seven straight. However, they've since followed up that winning streak with consecutive 1-run losses.

Both pitchers have had success against today's opponent. Price is 3-2 with a solid 3.48 ERA and 1.273 WHIP vs. the Angels. Haren has him beat in that category though, as he's 7-3 (teams are 9-3) in 12 starts vs. the Rays and as he's got an outstanding 2.60 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in those games.

The Angels bullpen has been significant better at home than the Rays' bullpen has been on the road. The Angels are also a better hitting club. Currently listed as a slight underdog, consider LA.

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The Blue Jays have not handled lefties of late, while the Chisox have. Francisco Liriano is the ultimate "ya never know" pitcher, but I'm taking the White Sox tonight.

MLB Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies -118

These two teams have similar and disappointing records this season with the Phillies at 54-63 and 28-30 on the road, while the Brewers are 52-64 and 33-26 at home. They've met three times this year in Philadelphia with the Phillies winning all three by the exact same 7-6 score (in some crazy games). Philadelphia lost 9-2 yesterday with Halladay on the mound, but have won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Milwaukee blew their lead in the bottom of the 9th yesterday to lose 7-6 against Colorado who swept away the Brewers, who have now lost 5 of their last 6 games. Cliff Lee is just 2-7 on the season but he has good numbers with a 3.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. He is 2-2 on the road with a 3.21 ERA. Marco Estrada is 0-5 with a 4.36 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .258 opponents batting average. The Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a favorite, 5-2 in their last 7 as a road favorite, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. The Phillies are 12-3 in Lee's last 15 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take note that the Brewers are just 6-18 in their last 24 games as an underdog, 4-12 in their last 16 games following a loss, and 1-5 in Estrada's last 6 starts. The Phillies are 23-9 in these two teams last 32 meetings overall, and 7-1 in their last 8 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Phillies to win.

Marlins / Rockies Over 10.5

After being shutout three straight games the Marlins got their bats going in a 9-2 win yesterday. The Rockies have had no problems scoring runs as they swept the Brewers in three games scoring an average of 8 runs per game. The Rockies have scored 6+ runs in 4 straight games. These two teams have played three games against each other in Miami this year with totals of 12, 13, and 11. Dating back to last season the OVER has hit in 7 straight meetings, and their last 3 game series in Colorado resulted in totals of 17, 11, and 11. Ricky Nolasco is 9-11 with a high 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and .293 opponents batting average. Alex White is 2-6 with a 5.82 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and .292 opponents batting average. Note that the OVER is 9-1-1 in the Marlins last 11 games vs a team with a winning % below .400 and 11-3-1 in their last 15 road games with a total set between 9 and 10.5. The OVER is also 6-1 in Nolasco's last 7 vs with a total set between 9 and 10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5, 34-16-3 in their last 53 home games, and 39-19-2 in their last 60 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. Take the OVER for a unit.

Frank Jordan

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

Despite a pair of homers from their big fella Josh Hamilton Texas lost their 8th straight game in the Bronx. With a day game on Thursday Ivan Nova gets the ball in hopes to keep the winning streak going and solid starting pitching. Look for Nova to continue to pitch well during the day and complete the sweep as the Yankees bats continue to come up with key hits. Play NY Yankees

JR O'Donnell

Pittsburgh Pirates -135

Today the LA Dodgers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. Dodgers (65-53 & 32-28 road) lead the NL West by one game, while the Pirates (64-53 & 36-23 home) are "7" back in the NL Central and sitting in second place! Dodgers send recently acquire Phillies Retread & poor poor Joe Blanton (8-10, 4.61 ERA & 1.20 WHIP) to the mound, and since coming to LA he has "2" starts with "11" innings pitched and allowed "6" earned runs for a so so slate. The Bucs send out their ace AJ Burnett (14-4, 3.32 ERA & 1.19 WHIP) who is 4-1 in his last "5" starts, and his last loss was only his second in his last "10"! Pirates are more successful vs RHP with a 46-39 record to LA 39-35. They score more at home and surrender less, and have their Solid ace on the mound.