Dave Essler
Tampa Bay -115
This is almost a total fade of the over-valued Dan Haren and the fact that the Rays were no-hit yesterday. No, they don't quite have the offense up-and-down the order the the Angels do, but what they DO have has had success against Haren. Price has given up more then three earned runs exactly twice this season, and not since about mid-May. If there's anyone that can re-focus a team after being no-hit it's Joe Madden. So, even if Haren DOES pitch reasonable, and Price DOES give up a few, there is a HUGE advantage in the bullpens. The Angels pen brings with it a 6.23 ERA over the last week, and both Isringhausen and Jepsen had to pitch last night, while over-shadowed but perfection was the fact that only Farnsworth had to come out of the Rays pen last night, leaving ALL the late inning guys very rested. We hit our free play on the Reds with ease yesterday, and look for a ballsweater with the Rays pulling it out late. Given all the offense the Angels have put up lately, Price is a road favorite for a reason.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
PITTSBURGH -126 over LA Dodgers: Boy has Pittsburgh been a frustrating team for me, but I did win yesterday by going against them, so maybe all is well now. This is a good spot for Pitt, as long as they play with some heart. The Dodgers have taken the first 3 in the series and Pitt should be playing hard to avoid the sweep. Pitt also has their best starter on the mound in this one. AJ Burnett is 14-4 with a 3.32 ERA on the year, while at home he is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA. The Pirates are 10-1 in his home starts and 17-4 in his starts overall. He is their slump stopper as the Pirates are 7-1 in his last 8 starts following a team loss.Joe Blanton has had a mediocre year, at 8-10 with a 4.61 ERA, including 1-4 with a 4.08 ERA in his last 7 starts. He is 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA on the road and 7-7 with a 5.05 ERA at night. In 2 starts for the Dodgers he is 0-1 with a 4.90 ERA. Joe has 2 career starts in this park and he has a 5.83 ERA with 2 no decisions. I feel a desperate Pirates team can hit him here, while the Pirate's stopper will cool down the hot Dodger bats. Look for Pitt play with heart salvage one here.
Arizona/ St Louis UNDER 8: Ump Change. Darling is behind home plate. Not Emmel. I have upgraded this play now. and this sucks. Really wanted to shock the world by going against the streak. LOL Anyway we have a solid pitching matchup on the mound in Trevor Cahill vs Kyle Loshe. Trevor has not pitched all that great in his own park, but out on the road he has been solid with a 2.88 ERA and his road starts have averaged just 7.3 rpg on the year. Trevor has faced St Louis just once is his career and it was in their park. He allowed just 2 ER's in 6 innings in that game. Kyle Lohse has been excellent at home and his games have been low scoring. Kyle Has a 2.40 ERA at home, with those starts averaging just 6.5 rpg. In his last 12 starts only 2 games have posted more than 8 runs and both were vs Colorado. Take out those 2 games and his other 10 games have averaged just 4.4 rpg. The D-Backs score well at home, but on the road they have averaged just 3.8 rpg and while the Cards put up 5.08 rpg at home overall, they have averaged just 4.09 rpg in Lohse's home starts. I really don't expect a lot of runs in this one.
Philadelphia -120 over MILWAUKEE: The Brewers looked to be playing well in their 3 game home sweep of the Reds, but then they went on the road for 6 games vs Houston and Colorado and went 1-5 on that trip. This is a team that has to be demoralized after that road trip and will be taking on a Philly team that is still playing hard, despite having no shot at the playoffs. Cliff Lee has not had a great year, but the Phils are still 3-1 in his last 4 starts, despite him having a 4.34 ERA over that stretch. One of those Phils wins was vs the Brewers, in a game in which he allowed 6 ER's and 12 hits in 7 innings. You can bet that Cliff will be looking for a better showing this time around. The Brewers offense was solid on their trip as they scored 5+ runs in 6 of the games, but it was their pitching that let them down as they allowed 6.2 rpg on the trip. Tonight's starter is Marco Estrada, who is 0-5 with a 4.36 ERA, and the Brewers are 4-10 in his 14 starts on the year. This Phils offense still isn't great, but they are playing very hard and with more heart than the Brewers are right now. Look for Cliff Lee to have a solid showing as the Phils take game 1 of this 4 game set.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. YANKEES -117 over Texas
Cheap price on the Yankees here against a team and pitcher they absolutely own at Yankees Stadium. The price is small due to Ivan Nova’s 6.16 ERA at home but we’re not buying into that poor ERA for a second.
Over parts of the previous two seasons, Nova established himself in the Yankee rotation as a groundball pitcher with a power arm that didn't quite translate to eye-popping skills. Nova showed modest progress overall last season but he has flashed a far more imposing arsenal thus far in 2012 minus the surface stats. He has 134 K’s with just 44 walks in 146 innings. He has a solid groundball rate of 46% and stands to offer even more upside if his fortunes take a positive turn. His xERA over his last two starts was 1.85. His xERA over his last five starts was 3.22 and his overall xERA is 3.55. Nova is primed for a strong stretch run and offers up more value than any other Yankee pitcher because he’s viewed as average but truth be told, the guy can throw.
Then there’s Derek Holland. Holland will try to stop the bleeding for the Rangers. That won’t be easy considering that the Yanks have won seven straight over Texas at this park. In seven regular-season games with six starts against the Yankees, Holland is 0-5 with a 9.26 ERA while allowing the Yankees to hit .340. Holland has been hammered by this team and he figures to be a bit anxious about this start. Combining their popularity with the best record in the AL, the Yankees are rarely underpriced but when they are, they are more than worthy of our endorsement.
Los Angeles +118 over PITTSBURGH
A.J. Burnett could certainly be considered the biggest surprise in the majors this season. With his performance so far, at the age of 35, Burnett is turning the clock back to his days in South Florida and his early years in Toronto. He’s 14-4 with a 3.32 ERA. He’s walked just 42 while whiffing 119 in 138 innings. However, gambling on a 35-year-old pitcher with a poor history down the stretch doesn’t come without risk. Burnett has allowed four runs or more in three of his last eight starts. He’s faced a slew of weak hitting opponents over the past six weeks that include the Astros twice, the Padres, the Giants, the Cubbies at Wrigley and the Marlins. He’ll now a Dodgers lineup that has 27 hits in 94 career AB’s against him for a BA of .287.
The Dodgers are heating up again. They’ve won the first two games of this series and have won four in a row and six of seven. Moves made at the deadline to boost their offense is paying dividends, as they’ve scored five runs or more in four straight for a total of 30 runs scored over their past four games.
Joe Blanton’s bad luck continued in his last start in Miami in which he allowed four runs in five innings. He’s maintained an ERA over 4.50 for most of the year but his solid skills don’t support that. Blanton’s 54% strand rate vs. righties is the worst among NL starters. His overall 66% strand rate is extremely low. Blanton has struck out 123 batters while walking just 21 in 144 innings for one of the best K/BB ratios in the league. He has a groundball bias profile and pitching for the red-hot Dodgers, he remains one of the best buy low targets down the stretch.
NFL Predictions
Bengals / Falcons Over 38
You aren’t going to see anywhere close to the full write ups I provide during the NFL regular season, but I will try and get some write ups going for any preseason picks I release. The Bengals are 1-0 in preseason play with a 17-6 home win against the New York Jets. LIke a lot of the Week 1 games we saw a low scoring game with both offenses trying to get on the same page. Andy Dalton went 4 for 9 for 54 yards, while Bruce Gradkowski went 5 for 10 for 86 yards and Zac Robinson completed 4 of his 5 attempts but for just 10 yards. Here in week 2 Andy Dalton and the first team offense should get a lot more than the 2 possessions they got in Week 1. After a three and out in their first possession the Bengals started to get some rhythm going on a 15 play drive that went 76 yards for a field goal. In 11 of their 16 games last season the Bengals scored 20 or more points, which included all but one of their road games. Atlanta also scored 17 points in their Week 1 meeting against the Ravens but lost 31-17. Matt Ryan looked great going 9 for 13 for 155 yards (1 TD, 1 INT), while 4th year pro John Parker Wilson also looked good going 8 for 13 for 69 yards and I expect him to get the most playing time tonight for the Falcon’s backup QBs. Look for Julio Jones to have another good game tonight at home to follow up on his 6 catches for 109 yards in one quarter last week. With the first team offense in for what should be the first half tonight we can expect the Falcons to put up some better numbers offensively. The Falcons scored 23 or more points in 7 of their 8 home games last season. That included 4 games of scoring 35+ points. Although Cincinnati’s defense played well against the Jets tonight will be a different test in Atlanta. Both offenses should get some good first half work in and help drive this total OVER 38 points.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Thursday night is on the Baltimore Orioles against the Boston Red Sox, and I don't want you listing either starting pitcher, I just want you playing the O's straight up.
Get the brooms out boys, history is about to happen.
The Orioles haven't swept the Crimson Hose at home and on the road, at Fenway Park, in the same season in more than 50 years. But in a season the O's are making a push for the postseason, and manager Buck Showalter is making his case for American League Manager of the Year, all things are possible.
Riding a three-game streak into this game, I love the Orioles tonight at Camden Yards, thinking they're going to be fired up for this sweep, before hitting the road for Motown and then Arlington. Baltimore has won nine of 11, and though it'll have its hands full in facing Boston righty Clay Buchholz, I'm more intrigued with the momentum the O's are on and will play the home underdog tonight.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Chuck O'Brien
Can't seem to figure out the Oakland Athletics? Don't worry, you're not alone.
The A's, who used a stellar month of July to make a run in the American League West and the Wild Card standings, suddenly can't hit the ball as well as they were, and I think that'll bode well for Kansas City starter Luke Hochevar.
The Royals' right-hander, who was tagged for three home runs at Baltimore last Friday, was on a positive swing before being beatdown by the O's, going 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA in his previous 10 starts. Tonight he is taking this personal.
He is 0-7 with a 6.96 ERA in his career against the A's, and I think this is a great shot for him to get that elusive first win.
Oakland is not only struggling at the plate, but it's suffering from injuries as well, and the last thing it needed right now was to be on the road.
Take Kansas City.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play comes in the preseason.
Cleveland and Green Bay Under the total is my call.
The reason for the jump in the total is simple... the Browns play the Eagles in next week's pre-season clash and then turn around and play them again in Week 1 of the regular season. That means Cleveland's starters will probably play more tonight than next week.
But that doesn't worry me, because the Packers are likely to keep their defensive starters in a little longer too, which negates anything the Browns think they are going to be able to do on offense.
Plus, stud rookie RB Trent Richardson is expected to miss all of the pre-season with an injury, so the "true" first team offense isn't really going to be playing.
Neither of these teams was great in their first pre-season game, but the Browns did play good defense in a 19-17 (36 points) win over Detroit. The Packers, on the other hand, lost 21-13 (34 points) to the Chargers and didn't look good at all.
Still, both results stayed under 40 points and I believe we are headed for a similar result tonight.
Lots of injuries, still, for both teams and I believe that leads to an UNDER in tonight's pre-season football game.
1♦ CLEVELAND-GREEN BAY UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Atlanta Falcons as the home favorite against the Cincinnati Bengals.
You have to wonder why a preseason line is this high? As always, the linemakers know best, and this number is telling me that the Falcons are the play.
For one thing, Cincinnati came out of their preseason opener with a ton of injuries, and even though they dumped the Jets at home 17-6, Andy Dalton did not impress.
As for Atlanta, their 31-17 home loss to Baltimore last Thursday is a little misleading, as the Atlanta starters did more than hold their own against the Baltimore starters. The Falcons built a 14-0 lead before the reserves came in and got steamrolled.
That will change tonight, as Mike Smith is expected to give his starters a little bit of a longer leash, and the fact that Smith's head is squarely on the chopping block as he break in a pair of new coordinators both on offense and on defense.
I do not think the Falcons will be fooling around tonight. Look for Atlanta to get out early in this one, and stay out in front come the final gun against a Bengals team that will proceed cautiously with all of the injuries they are working through.
Atlanta covers this number tonight.
3♦ ATLANTA
Chris Jordan
An unordinary line for a preseason game, as the modern-day preseason action generally garners a 3 or 3-1/2 point line. Not tonight in Atlanta, where the Falcons are laying 4-1/2 points. And I actually like the home team to get it done.
Last week in their first preseason game, against the Ravens, the first-team offense was runing roughshod through a pretty talented Baltimore defense, while the first-team defense gave varied looks, and looked like a dynamic unit that will have no problem adapting to different offensive schemes. That being said, the same cannot be said for the depth on this team, as it was vividly inexperienced, and, in a word, lost.
With the starters getting increased time this week, I suspect we'll continue to see some great things from Atlanta's team, especially since word out of the South is that Mike Smith needs to win with two new coordinators, otherwise, he could be the next NFL coach on the chopping block.
One of the most revealing things last week during Atlanta's time on offense was the Falcons' offensive line didn't crumble under pressure of an aggressive Ravens defense. It was the one unit that did excel with its depth. Atlanta will give the Bengals a very good test, as tonight will provide a nice measuring stick about where their cornerbacks and safeties are halfway through the preseason. Last Friday, in a 17-6 win over the New York Jets, the Bengals allowed a mere 97 passing yards. Make note, albeit he only missed a handful of plays, the Jets were missing receiver Santonio Holmes in that game.
Atlanta, on the other hand, will be at full strength. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White... heavy doses of those guys are on tap! And again, Atlanta's first-team units will play at least the first quarter against the Bengals.
Now, as high-flying as the Falcons are on offense, I expect to see some bigger things from the defense. I know the Bengals plan on giving sophomore Andy Dalton more reps in the Georgia Dome tonight, and we're probably going to see a huge passing attack from Marvin Lewis' boys, but I think Atlanta's defenders are more than up to the task. The Falcons will counter with Asante Samuel, Brent Grimes, and Dunta Robinson, so I'm going to be very interested in watching this defensive unit.
Take the Dirty Birds.
3♦ ATLANTA FALCONS
Matt Rivers
Going for free play winner #4 in a row tonight, and I do so with the Over in the Phillies-Brewers game.
Both teams coming off high-scoring Overs on Wednesday, as Milwaukee has now played Over the total in each of their last five contests.
The last time these clubs met at the end of July, the score ended up being 7-6 in all three of the showdowns, and obviously ALL three of those games did make their way Over the posted price.
13 of Cliff Lee's 19 starts this year have ended up playing Over, including four of his last five trips to the bump, while 10 of the 14 starts Milwaukee hurler Marco Estrada has made this campaign have landed high.
When the Phillies and Brewers meet at Miller Park, the games usually end up with more than a few runs on the scoreboard, as the Over is 8-3 the last eleven times these teams have met in Milwaukee.
No need to expect a pitcher's duel to break out, play the Over in the Phillies-Brewers series opener tonight.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA-MILWAUKEE OVER
Dom Chambers
For today’s winner, let’s go with the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the Los Angeles Angels.
The Rays just got beat by the Mariners with a perfect game thrown by Felix Hernandez.
They will get a few hits today.
David Price starts for the Rays, He has been very good this season.
He is 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts.
Dan Haren starts for the Angels. In his last three starts, he is 1-1 with a 4.11 ERA and a WHIP of 1.30.
The Rays get the pitching edge here.
The Rays are 7-2 in their last nine games, while the Angels have lost three of their last five games.
Take the Rays.
3♦ RAYS
Teddy Covers
Boston vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting on the Orioles against the Red Sox on Tuesday. We stepped it up a notch last night, cashing a Big Ticket report on Baltimore over Boston. And while today’s pitching matchup isn’t nearly as favorable for the Orioles, betting (and beating) baseball is most assuredly more than just isolating favorable pitching matchups! Given the current form of these two squads, Baltimore has no business as a home underdog despite the starting pitching edge for Boston.
Even if Boston has the starting pitching edge, the Orioles have a major edge when it comes to their bullpen and when it comes to finding ways to scratch out wins in coin-flip type ballgames. The O’s are 22-6 in one run games this year; while going 12-2 in games decided in extra innings. The Red Sox are just 2-6 in extra inning affairs and they’re a sub .500 club in one run games as well.
Why the differential? Baltimore’s bullpen ranks among the league leaders in ERA; Boston’s does not. And Orioles manager Buck Showalter is making the right moves in tight games while BoSox manager Bobby Valentine is not. Baltimore is in good current form; 9-2 in their last eleven ballgames. Boston is not; just 4-10 in their last 14, watching their playoff chances slip away.
As we’ve seen more than once in recent years, once the Red Sox start to fall apart late in the season, whatever perceived starting pitching edge they have doesn’t seem to matter very much. Boston just isn’t responding well to any adversity whatsoever these days…..Take the Orioles.
Sean Murphy
Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Over
It's not hard to make a case for playing the 'over' with Cliff Lee and Marco Estrada taking the mound tonight.
Excluding 'pushes' the duo have combined to post a 23-10 o/u record this season. Both bring poor form to the table.
Lee has been tagged for a whopping 18 hits and eight earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 15 innings of work. He just faced the Brewers on July 24th, and was crushed for 12 hits and six earned runs over seven innings. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged well north of eight runs per game this season.
Estrada got off to a solid start this season, but the wheels have come off lately. He's given up 28 hits and 12 earned runs over his last four starts, spanning only 21 innings pitched. His strikeout numbers have decreased dramatically, with only five over his last two starts combined. He's topped out at five strikeouts or less in four of his last five outings. Keep in mind, there was a stretch earlier this season where Estrada recorded at least 11 strikeouts in two of three starts. The right-hander faced the Phillies on July 25th, and gave up eight hits and five earned runs in only four innings.
Both bullpens have struggled all season, ranking near the bottom of the league in terms of ERA. The Phils 'pen has posted a collective 4.51 ERA while the Brewers relief corps have combined to record a bloated 4.85 ERA.
The first series between these two teams produced a grand total of 39 runs in three games back in late July. Now the scene shifts to Miller Park, where games are averaging over 10 total runs this season. Expect more of the same tonight.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's +108
The Oakland A's are showing solid value Thursday as an underdog to the lowly Kansas City Royals. They will be highly motivated tonight for a win after losing the first two games of this series to the 51-65 Royals.
At 61-55 on the season, the A's are still in the thick of the AL Wildcard race. I like their chances of avoiding the sweep tonight due to that motivation, and the fact that they'll be facing one of the worst starters in baseball.
Luke Hochevar is 7-10 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.404 WHIP in 23 starts this season for Kansas City. He allowed seven runs and three homers over 5 1/3 innings of a 1-7 loss at Baltimore his last time out.
Hochevar has never beaten Oakland, going 0-7 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in eight career starts against the A's. Bet Oakland Thursday.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -150
Fading the Mets, who are 9-23 in their last 32 overall and 0-5 in their last 5 versus Cincy. The Reds have won 5 in a row and are 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite. They are also 7-1 in Bailey's last 8 starts and 32-13 in his last 45 starts as a favorite. Bet the Reds.