Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 18,2011

SPORTS WAGERS

OAKLAND +110 over Toronto

Ricky Romero is hot. He’s surrendered just four runs in 31.1 innings during his current four-game winning streak and he’s also 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four career starts versus the A's. Trevor Cahill is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three games this month. Looks like an easy choice, doesn’t it? Not so fast. The books have made the Jays a very enticing small favorite (line actually opened up at –113) and that’s always a red flag. In other words, they’re looking for Jays money and they’ll get plenty of it. What we do know for sure is that Ricky Romero has always struggled after the all-star-break. Over the past three years after the break he’s posted an ERA of 4.63 and he’s also better at home than he is on the road. He’s showed better durability this season but his history is one that should not be ignored. Also note that they A’s own the second-best OPS in the league (.812) since the break and they just scored 14 more runs in their past two games. Furthermore, the Jays pen is weak and that, too, is a concern. Back to Cahill. He’s had a lot of good games this season, especially at home where he sports an ERA of 2.62. The A’s have lost seven of his past nine games but only because of a lack of run support. Over his past 11 starts, Cahill has allowed three runs or less eight times and the Jays are five games under .500 against right-handed pitchers. Blue Jays could be the “sucker” play of the day. The line says so. Play: Oakland +110 (Risking 2 units).

Texas +134 over ANAHEIM

The Rangers go for the sweep tonight and don’t think it can’t happen. They beat one of the hottest pitchers in the majors last night by a score of 4-3 but they also had 12 hits and stranded 11 runners. The score was flattering to the Angels. Anaheim has now lost five straight and seven of eight and are now seven games out. After scoring two in the first inning last night, the Halo’s didn’t get a man past second base until the ninth inning. This is a team that is pressing big time, they’re fragile and they’re mentally beat before they even take the field. Jered Weaver is solid but just like Santana last night, when your team is losing and not producing, you feel like you have to be near perfect to win and again, those are tough conditions. Colby Lewis is about as mediocre as they come when facing a strong left-handed line-up. However, the Angels possess a dominating right-hitting line-up and Lewis has been lights out against these right-side dominating line-ups. Having said that, this one has really nothing to do with the pitching match-up. This one is all about playing the red hot Rangers against an extremely fragile club. Play: Texas +134 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO –3 over Saskatchewan

Laying three points with teams in last place is usually not recommended but the Riders also are in last place and they can’t even win at Mosaic Stadium. Saskatchewan’s lone win came at Montreal in a game in which Anthony Calvillo was knocked out of and that’s the only reason they won. Fact is, the Roughies can’t stop the matching band. The defense is allowing a ton of points and a ton of yardage and they’re always playing catch-up. Not only is that demoralizing but it takes its toll big time. The Argos are close, real close to putting it all together and running off some wins. Cleo Lemon has clicked in. He’s always had the talent but the CFL game takes some time to adjust to and Lemon has found game. He’s thrown back-to-back 300+ yards and he should thrive again this week. The Boatmen have been close in two of its last three games and should’ve beaten both Hamilton and Edmonton. They are on the verge of getting over the hump and this is an opportunity to do just that. The Argonauts play a very decent brand of defensive football and when you put it all together, this is likely the week the Argos break out and get a much deserved win. Don’t be surprised to see a blowout win either. Play: Toronto –3 (Risking 3.06 units to win 3).

Matt Fargo

Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals

We won with the Reds last night but we will be switching sides here and backing the home team. Jordan Zimmerman had a tremendous run going as he had a string of 11 consecutive quality outings but he has run into some trouble since then. He has only two quality efforts over his last seven starts but the good news is that both of those came at home where he has tossed seven quality games in 10 starts. His last home start resulted in six shutout innings against the Mets and the Nationals are 4-1 in his last five home starts. The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who is coming off a quality start last time out but he has not put together consecutive quality outings since early June. Over his last nine starts he has a 6.75 ERA which has upped his overall ERA to 5.31. On the road, Arroyo has a 5.58 ERA in 10 starts and amazingly is 4-1 but he is getting it done with a lot of fortune as he has gotten runs support when he has pitched his worse. He has three quality outings in his last six starts against Washington but those other three games were disasters. 3* Washington Nationals

Steve Merril

Yankees vs. Twins
Play: Over 8

New York heads to Minnesota to take on the Twins on Thursday night. CC Sabathia looks to turn around his struggles as of late. He has given up 12 runs and 19 hits over his last 14 innings pitched while taking losses to the Rays and Red Sox. He beat the White Sox back on August 1st despite giving up 10 hits in eight innings. The last time he pitched in Minnesota, Sabathia gave up 4 runs and five hits in six innings. The Twins are 19-19 in games against left-handed starters while hitting .259 in those games. Minnesota returns home where they hit .256 as a team. Brian Duensing is struggling as a pitcher. He has lost three straight starts giving up at least 3 runs in each game. The lefty is 5-5 with a 5.20 ERA in 11 home starts this season. Duensing is 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA in three career starts against the Bronx Bombers. Robinson Cano (2-7), Derek Jeter (2-6), Andruw Jones (2-5), Nick Swisher (2-4) and Mark Teixeira (2-6) all hit the southpaw well. New York has scored 29 runs in their last four games and they are hitting over .300 in their last eight games. They will feast on a Twins’ bullpen that is 9-10 with a 5.12 ERA at home blowing 7 of their 21 chances. We’ll recommend playing the Yankees and Twins Over the total in this game tonight.

Charlie Scott

Patriots vs. Buccaneers
Play: Over 36.5

Check weather as there is a 30% chance of rain. However, I lean to playing Over with a low total and a New England team who's defense is not very good, but has a high powered offense that throws often with a QB rotation of Brady,Hoyer & Mallett. Plus Patriots Coach Belechick has shown he does Not care about public perception and is Not adverse to running up the score in PreSeason. The Patriots are 6-1-1 Over the last 2 seasons of PreSeason. Go Over !

Craig Trapp

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: San Francisco Giants

Both teams are so similar build on pitching and defense. Today huge advantage has to be to SFG with Lincecum on the mound. SFG bats seem to be heating up as the games become more important. ATL looks like all the extra inning games lately have worn them down.

Steve Janus

Diamondbacks +133

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing some great value at +133 against the Phillies on Thursday. Arizona had won seven straight before falling last night, including a 3-2 win over Roy Halladay on Tuesday.

Both teams will send out outstanding starting pitching, as Ian Kennedy takes the rubber for Arizona against Vance Worley. While both starters have been great, Kennedy comes in pitching much better of late. He is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in his last three starts, while Worley is just 1-0 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in his last three.

Kennedy has a 1.06 ERA and 0.471 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies, while Worley will make his career debut against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League East, 9-1 in Kennedys last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, and 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Ben Burns

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Toronto Argonauts
PICK: Saskatchewan Roughriders +3

The Riders have certainly gotten off to a disappointing start to the season. This is a game they can win though and one they know they have to take advantage of.

The Riders won 27-16 here last season, as four point favorites. The previous season, listed as three point underdogs, the Riders won 46-36 here.

Including that "upset," the Riders are an outstanding 100-63-3 ATS the last decade or so, when getting points.

As for the Argos, they're just 1-5 ATS the last six times they were laying points; a role which they are largely unaccustomed to. Going back further finds that they're also just 6-12 ATS the last 18 times that they were listed as home favorites of three or less.

Consider grabbing the points with what should be a highly motivated Saskatchewan side.

Nick Parsons

Indians @ White Sox
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Coming into Wednesday the Indians are 60-58; 33-25 at home and 27-33 on the road.

Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 56 of 112 (with six "pushes").

Justin Masterson (9-7, 2.69 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Masterson gave up five hits and two runs over 7 2/3's innings his team's 3-2 victory over the Twins last Friday.

Masterson has been masterful since the All-Star Break as he's now 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in seven starts since the Midsummer Classic.

Note that in three starts vs. Chicago this year he's 1-2 with a sparkling 1.23 ERA.

In the other dugout: Coming into Wednesday the White Sox are 61-60; 27-33 at home and 34-27 on the road.

Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in just 65 of 112 this year (with nine "pushes").

Philip Humber (8-8, 3.67 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Humber is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs and 11-hits over six innings of work; his team lost 6-4 to the Orioles last Wednesday.

Humber started the season strong, but has been inconsistent of late; he gets another big opportunity in this game to prove he belongs in the starting rotation.

Bottom line: Consider a second look at the "under" in this contest.

David Chan

Rangers @ Angels
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and believe this contest has all the makings of a classic "pitchers duel".

Colby Lewis (11-8, 4.01 ERA) gets the start for the Rangers.

Lewis went 6 1/3 frames on Saturday vs. the A's, giving up one run on three hits in the 7-1 victory:

"Not giving them the momentum to start the game off ... it was big," said Lewis. "I don't know what the percentage is on that scoring but for me it was a big deal leaving a man on third base and keeping the score 0-0 for a while."

Lewis is just a single win away from matching a career high.

He'll be opposed by Jered Weaver (14-6, 2.13 ERA) who is coming off his worst start of the year; after serving a six-game suspension, Weaver uncharacteristically gave up three dingers, including a grand slam to Adam Lind in his team's 11-2 setback to the Jays last Saturday.

Suffice to say, I'm not the only one who thinks that Weaver will instantly "return to form":

"He's been lights out all year," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "This is one where it just wasn't there for him. He'll be ready for his next start."

A matchup vs. the Rangers is just what the doctor ordered as Weaver is a lights-out 2-1 vs. Texas this season, posting a sparkling 2.05 ERA in three starts.

All signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Hollywood Sports

Indians at White Sox
Prediction: Under

Cleveland faces off against White Sox's Phillip Humber who sports a solid 8-8 record with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP this season -- and the Indians have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Cleveland has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. The Total is set at 8 for this contest -- and the Indians have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when the Total was set in the 7-8.5 range. With them sending out Justin Masterson who enjoys a strong 9-7 record, 2.69 ERA and 1.17 WHIP frontline numbers, the Under certainly looks solid from the visitors perspective. Cleveland beat Chicago by a 4-1 score last night -- and the Under is 12-3-2 in the White Sox's last 17 games when they failed to score more than two runs. The Under is also 7-0-2 in Chicago's last 9 games when Humber was taking the ball after a White Sox loss. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the White Sox's last 13 games when Humber was pitching as the underdog. Considering that the Indians have played 4 straight games Under the Total when favored with Humber on the hill, there is more than enough evidence to suggest that the Under is a solid proposition here while listing both starting pitchers.

Tom Freese

Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres

Florida is 5-21 this season if they have lost eight of their last 10 games. Tonight, they face Padres starter Tim Stauffer, who has a 2.64 ERA at home this season. Overall, the Marlins have lost 11 of 13. They are also 2-9 last 11 vs. the Padres. 10* on San Diego.

David Banks

Giants / Braves Under

The finale of the four-game series between the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves is set to conclude Thursday night with Tim “The Freak” Lincecum opposing Mike Minor; first pitch is set for 7:10 ET live on the MLB Network.

Since taking two of three from the Marlins in Florida, the Giants have dropped back-to-back gut wrenchers to the Braves heading into Wednesday night’s battle. Monday night saw closer Brian Wilson blow the save in walk-off fashion, and then the Braves won 2-1 in extra innings on Tuesday night. The pair of defeats now finds the defending champion Giants trailing the NL West leading Arizona Diamondbacks by 3.5-games after they battled back in the 9th to steal one from Roy Halladay and the Phillies in the series opener. San Francisco checks in a game under .500 as a visitor (31-32, -$60) with Wednesday’s game pending.

The two wins to open this series were very much so needed for manager Fredi Gonzalez’s squad after it shockingly dropped two of three to the Chicago Cubs last weekend. The Braves have tallied wins in seven of their L/10 games played, but still trail Philadelphia by 7.5-games in the NL East. That said; Chipper Jones and his mates are the current NL Wild Card owners and hold a six-game lead over the Giants. Though nowhere near as dominant as in 2010, Atlanta still possesses a 37-24 home record that’s banked $219 for its betting supporters on the year.

The Braves have made it a point to take care of the Giants in 2011 after San Fran bounced them from the postseason in four games last season. Atlanta has won all five of the team’s clashes to date with the ‘over’ posting a 3-2 tally in those contests. San Francisco has won each of Lincecum’s L/6 starts against NL East opposition and has taken care of business 18 of the L/25 times the offense stared back at a lefty on the road. Atlanta counters with an 8-2 record its L/10 versus the NL West, and has won each of Minor’s L/5 trips to the bump. The ‘under’ has cashed eight of the L/10 times these teams battled one another at Turner Field.

Sports Picks Direct

Philadelphia / Pittsburgh Under 34

In the first week of the Pre-Season both of these teams provided us with winning plays as the UNDER was victorious as I expected, and neither the Pittsburgh/Washington or Baltimore/Philadelphia game total were really ever in doubt.

In week 2 of the Pre-Season for both teams I believe we have a few variables that may work in our favor here including some strong trend history. Expect both of these teams to utilize their starters for most, if not all of the first half and I think that provides us with a stronger play. With that in mind this game should be a defensive struggle. The Steelers defense will be bolstered this week with the expected return of LB James Harrison and S Troy Palamalu. Both of these teams will be shuffling several bodies on their offensive lines, a definate area of concern for both coaches at this point in the season which is an advantage for both defenses. More specifically, the Eagles will be without several offensive linemen for this game. Philadelphia will welcome back Deshan Jackson who will play his first Pre-Season game but they will also be without Jeremy Maclin and Steve Smith. Expect Mike Vick to be used sparingly in this game and the bulk of the snaps be taken by back up quarterbacks Vince Young and Mike Kafka. We may also see several handoffs to the Eagles RB Dion Lewis, who will be competing for the third string running back spot. Conversely I believe the focus for the Steelers in this game will be Backup RB Isaac Redman.

In the Steelers previous 22 Pre-Season games dating back to 2007 the UNDER has been the correct side in 82% of those games and I expect the trend to continue tonight in Pittsburgh.

Jim Feist

Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Florida Marlins

Florida is weak at home, but has a winning road record. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Javier Vazquez goes here and has been on a roll, with a 2.25 ERA his last three starts walking 4 with 18 Ks in 20 innings. The Padres are 18-40 in their last 58 home games vs. a right-handed starter and starter Tim Stauffer has a 7.16 ERA his last three starts. The Padres are also 11-27 in their last 38 during game 1 of a series. Play the Marlins.