Scott Rickenbach
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Buffalo vs Indianapolis
PICK: Under 34
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This early Week Two match-up features the two teams that gave up the most points in Week One. As a result, look for the defenses to get plenty of emphasis here. The Bills allowed 42 points in their ugly loss Friday and the Colts allowed 37 points in their bad defeat Sunday. Their defensive units will respond here while the Indianapolis offensive game plan, especially since this is a preseason game, is likely to be quite vanilla in this one. Also, with just three off-days between games, the Colts certainly weren't afforded the opportunity to do true strategizing for the offense. Additionally helping our cause here is that the Bills have one of the weakest offenses in the league while the Colts QB rotation certainly is not impressive behind Peyton Manning. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Buffalo on Thursday night!
Dunkel Index
Indianapolis at Buffalo
The Colts travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team looking to rebound from a 42-17 loss at Washington in the preseason opener. Buffalo is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bills favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3 1/2)
Game 401-402: Indianapolis at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 113.572; Buffalo 118.308
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 30
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 33
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: New England at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 118.808; Atlanta 125.566
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Over
MLB
Cleveland at Kansas City
The Royals look to follow up yesterday's 9-7 win and build on their 7-2 record in Kyle Davies' last 9 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Kansas City is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115)
Game 951-952: Washington at Atlanta (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.684; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.975
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-210); Under
Game 953-954: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.763; Cubs (Zambrano) 14.571
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); N/A
Game 955-956: Florida at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanabia) 14.713; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.193
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); Over
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 13.643; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.373
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Misch) 15.886; Houston (Norris) 14.673
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-105); Over
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wood) 16.164; Arizona (Saunders) 13.958
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.643; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 15.036
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over
Game 965-966: Detroit at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.639; NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.945
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-260); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+220); Over
Game 967-968: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.249; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.674
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-175); Under
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.283; Boston (Beckett) 15.081
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Over
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.762; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.964
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 14.059; Kansas City (Davies) 14.496
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Over
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 16.763; Oakland (Cahill) 15.942
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under
WNBA
Tulsa at New York
The Liberty look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in New York. New York is the pick (-15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: New York (-15 1/2)
Game 601-602: Tulsa at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 100.182; New York 118.239
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 18; 165
Vegas Line & Total: New York 15 1/2; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-15 1/2); Over
CFL
Winnipeg at Montreal
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings between the two teams. Montreal is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 19 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11)
Game 241-242: Winnipeg at Montreal (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 106.491; Montreal 125.759
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 19 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Montreal by 11; 56
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11); Under
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK METS / HOUSTON ASTROS
PLAY: HOUSTON ASTROS
The Mets have been plummetting, falling out of contention the last month with a rash of injuries and bad pitching. The Mets are a long way from home and limp into Houston with the fourth worst offense in the NL, third worst in on base percentage. Houston starter Bud Norris is quietly throwing well, with a 2-0 record his last three starts while fanning 23 in 19 innings, just 4 walks. The offense is improving, as we saw in that 18-4 win at St. Louis and last week scoring 10 against the Braves to start this home stand. Play the Astros.
Marc Lawrence
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Padres and Cubs close out a three-games series when Mat Latos matches serves with Carlos Zambrano at Wrigley this afternoon. Latos takes the hill 13-4 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 17 team starts. On the flip side, Zambrano is just 4-8 in his last 12 team starts, including 2-5 at home. With the Z-Man just 2-5 in his last seven home team starts during the month of August, look for the water cooler in the Cubs dugout to take another hit here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.
Steve Merril
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White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Over 7.5
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The White Sox and Twins have played two high-scoring affairs in Minnesota so far in this series. They'll finish the 3-game set on Thursday night with Carl Pavano and Mark Buehrle on the mound. Buehrle is 24-17 with a 4.02 ERA in 43 career starts against the Twins. This season, he has split two outings against them after giving up seven runs and 17 hits in 16 innings pitched. Michael Cuddyer (30-89), Denard Span (12-28), Delmon Young (10-27), Orlando Hudson (5-17), Jason Kubel (3-11), and Danny Valencia (1-3) all hit the lefty well. The Twins have gone Over the total in 28 of their 50 games against the rest of the division. They have gone Over in two straight games and they’ve scored at least four runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games. These two teams have played five Overs in eight games in Minnesota this season. Carl Pavano is 2-0 against the White Sox this season. He has given up four runs and 13 hits in 16 innings of work against Chicago. Pavano hasn't been as sharp lately giving up 26 hits in his last 19.3 innings pitched. Paul Konerko (6-23), Mark Kotsay (6-20), AJ Pierzynski (7-19), Alex Rios (5-18), Gordon Beckham (4-11), and Juan Pierre (3-10) all hit Pavano well. The White Sox have scored at least five runs in three straight games and in six of their last eight games overall. They have gone Over the total in three straight games and Over in four of their last five games as well. We expect another high-scoring game tonight so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the White Sox and Twins.
Rob Vinciletti
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LAA Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Boston qualifies in a solid 16-4 system tonight. Thus far they have taken all 9 games vs LA. The Angels are averaging just over 2 rpg the past week, while Boston is scoring over 6 rpg in that span. LA is 4-9 on Thursday and Boston is 8-2 at home when the total is 10 or more. The Angels have struggled vs winning teams at 5-14 in the 2nd half. J. Beckett for Boston is 3-1 vs AL West teams while, E.Santana has a poor 6.88 era in his last 3 starts. Boston makes it 10 straight tonight vs the Angels tonight.
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: San Diego Padres
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With its fourth straight win on Wednesday, San Diego has increased its lead to six games in the National League West and it is now definitely the team to beat. The pitching for the Padres remains absolutely outstanding as the team ERA sits at 3.18 which is the best in baseball by a decent amount. The Padres have allowed two runs or fewer in nine of their last 13 games as they continue to mow down the opposing bats.
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With the trade of Derrek Lee, the Cubs have pretty much gotten rid of every offensive player that was supposed to contribute for a playoff run this season. The team is a shell of what it was at the start of the season and playing at home is no longer a big edge for Chicago. The Cubs are 27-35 at Wrigley Field this season and they are on a dismal 4-17 run over their last 21 games including losses in six straight games at home.
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Chicago has been outscored 15-6 in the first three games of this series and that disparity continues today.
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The Padres send Mat Latos to the hill and he remains an under the radar pitcher with the season he is having. He has posted an incredible 2.32 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season over 22 starts, fifth and second in the National League respectively and he is a viable Cy Young candidate. He has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 straight starts as well as 17 of his last 18 trips to the hill. Take away one bad start against the Marlins and his ERA goes from 2.32 to 1.89.
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The Cubs counter with Carlos Zambrano who has been a mess this season. He got off to a horrible start this year and then was suspended from the team because of repeated outbursts. He has been better since his return but it has been far from efficient as he has labored. Still, he picked up his first win since June 20th in his last game against the Cardinals but don’t expect the run to continue.
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San Diego is 15-2 in its 17 games in the season half of the season against National League teams allowing 4.8 rpg or more while the Cubs are 9-19 this season against starters who allow 5.5 or fewer hits per start. The Padres are 10-1 in Latos’ last 11 starts against teams with a losing record. 3* San Diego Padres
EZWINNERS
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New York Yankees -245
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The Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello has had the sophomore slump this season. Porcello has managed to pitch back to back quality start for Detroit but I expect him to revert back to the struggles that he has had for most of the season in this game against the Yankees. Over his last 10 starts, Porcello is only 1-6 with three no-decisions and he has posted a 5-10 record this season with an ERA of 5.53. I expect the Bronx Bombers to do some serious damage against Porcello in this game. The Yankees send Phil Hughes to the mound for this start. New York's young righty started the season with a 10-2 record, but as cooled off since the start of July. Hughes looks like he might be back in good form as he he picked up his fourteenth win of the season as he allowed three earned runs on nine hits in Saturday's 8-3 win over the Royals. Hughes has had pretty good success against the Tigers lineup and I expect him to pitch well in this game. The Tigers are only 3-11 in Porcello's last fourteen road starts and the Yankees have won twenty five out of the last thirty five games played between these two teams in New York. Play on the Yankees.
CAJUN SPORTS
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds and Diamondbacks square-off in the desert for the final game of a three-game set on Thursday night. At the time of this writing the Reds are 32-25 on the highway and 68-51 overall this season. Cincinnati has had little trouble against Arizona winning ten of the last thirteen overall and six of the last seven in the desert. They will send left-hander Travis Wood to the bump with his 3-1 record and ERA of 2.65 on the season. The Reds are a perfect 4-0 when Woods starts as a favorite and 5-0 when he takes the mound on the road against teams with a losing record. Lay the short price with the Reds as they take this series on Thursday night over the Diamondbacks.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 6 Arizona Diamondbacks 3
Dan Bebe
LOS (-140) vs COL
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The Dodgers are going to win this series, especially with the way last night went down, and De La Rosa's awful career numbers against LA.
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The Dodgers gave up the winning run yesterday on a series of wild pitches, and that will not sit well. In addition, spectacular defense by the Rockies kept the game tied at 2, and Carlos Gonzalez hurt himself running into the outfield wall. I doubt he plays in this series finale, and we can capitalize on that note before the line shuffles, even if it's a tiny move.
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Both teams used up the bullpens, so that kind of puts us back at square one in that respect, and while Colorado likely has the bullpen edge, I think the starting pitching match-up is going to stick us back in the catbird seat.
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Ted Lilly has been tremendous since coming over to the Dodgers -- not only is he pitching well, but he seems to have a knack for pitching just as well as he needs to, to hand a lead to the Dodgers pen. He's been efficient, which is another huge note coming off the extra-inning tilt yesterday, since both teams are going to want some innings out of the starters. His lifetime ERA against the Rockies isn't all that impressive, but again, looking more closely, the Colorado regulars on this squad have done nothing against him - nada, zip, zilch.
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Meanwhile, Jorge De La Rosa is 0-5 with a 6.58 ERA against the Dodgers, and even a weak-hitting LA club will do a little damage. The Dodgers are going to need Matt Kemp to make contact, I believe, and I think he does put a charge into at least one De La Rosa offering.
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Dodgers take the finale -- it won't be pretty, yet again, but patience and just a hair of timely hitting will get LA the 4-2 win.
Play on the Dodgers!
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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Los Angeles over Colorado
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Lefty Ted Lilly (6-8, 3.44) of Los Angeles has pitched into some real tough luck this season. Still, the veteran has managed to hold back the opposition over his last five outings, giving up a total of 5 earned runs total. However, he has been limited to an average of 6 innings per outing. The Dodgers have won his last three starts supported by an effective bullpen. Behind lefty De La Rosa the Rockies are 0-7 versus this LA contingent. Finally, we find the Rockies just 7-22 in their recent games versus Los Angeles
Karl Garrett
G-Man all over it for free on Wednesday, as the Tigers and Yankees easily went OVER the total. Now a 15-9-1 comp play run the last 25 days.
Turning my attention to some preseason football, both the Patriots and the Falcons posted opening game home wins last week, but the edge tonight rests with the home team Falcons, as they do get to stay at home once again for the second straight week.
It should be noted that in coach Mike Smith's tenure as head coach, the home team is 6-1-2 in the 9 games that Smith has coached in the preseason.
New England has been taking it easy of late in these August exhibitions, as they are just 4-5 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 practice games.
Tom Brady does have a finger injury that figures to limit his playing time in this one, so it will be Hoyer and Robinson getting most of the reps for the Patriots.
Matt Ryan is also likely to have a seat on the bench early in this game, as Mike Smith is trying to settle on Redman, Wilson, or Shockley as his # 2 man.
With the Falcons backup QB competition at full tilt, and Atlanta at home for this one, the G-Man cannot pass up the small chalk tonight.
Lay it with the Falcons.
2♦ ATLANTA
Chuck O'Brien
Thursday’s complimentary selection comes from the NFL, as I’ll lay the chalk with the Falcons at home in a preseason battle against New England.
Atlanta has been terrific in August in recent years, going 14-8 SU and 15-6-1 ATS dating to 2005, including last week’s 20-10 home win over Kansas City as a 2½-point favorite. Just since 2007, the Falcons have covered the spread in 10 of 13 preseason contests.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have been mediocre in summer action in recent years, going 10-11 SU and 9-11-1 ATS since 2005. One of the main reasons is New England coach Bill Belichick is loathe to play his starters – and Tom Brady in particular – very long unless they’re coming off a sluggish effort. Well, the Pats opened with a 27-24 home win over the defending-champion Saints a week ago, so no reason to believe The Hoodie will force his guys to play extended minutes tonight.
As for Brady, he played two series in the win over New Orleans and was very sharp, but I’ll be shocked if he’s on the field longer than that tonight. In fact, because there’s a legitimate battle for the No. 2 QB spot between Brian Hoyer and rookie Zac Robinson, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brady sits this one out entirely (Belichick never reveals his playing-time game plan in the preseason).
At the same time, I expect to see a little bit more of the Falcons’ first-string offense than we did last week, when Matt Ryan threw just six passes (completing three for 34 yards) and RB Michael Turner (coming off an injury-plagued season) had just four carries).
2♦ ATLANTA
Joel Tyson
My FREE play for Thursday will be to play the Giants-Phillies game to hold under the posted total.
Cole Hamels will set the pace in this game, as the southpaw is coming off a pair of hard-luck losses, as he has allowed just 2 earned runs to score in his last pair of starts which have lasted a total of 15 innings, and all he has to show for it is a big 0-2 donut!
You can certainly assume that he will be on a mission tonight to shut this Giants team down.
Jonathan Sanchez is coming off a couple of short starts that have seen him go 0-2 while allowing 7 runs in just 9 innings of work, but the lefty has pitched some quality ball against the Phillies his last 3 starts against them, working 17 innings while allowing just 4 earned runs to score.
Both games this week have made their way over the posted total, but remember that the 3 games played between the clubs last year in Philly all went under the posted total.
I have a feeling we are due for a low-scoring game tonight.
Take the Giants-Phillies to hold low.
1♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
I handed out my second straight FREE winner on Wednesday as the Twins got the job done at home over the White Sox. Tonight I am dishing out a freebie on the Reds as they will take care of business in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona has absolutely no bullpen. These guys are terrible as obvious by their allowing eight runs in the final two innings of the 11-7 loss to the Reds on Wednesday after their offense got them a 7-3 lead. Bank on the Reds to beat the bad pitching again and win this Thursday game behind young lefty Travis Wood (3-1, 2.65 ERA).
Wood has a 3-0 record on the road with a 2.80 ERA and he looked good in his outing on Saturday with Louisville as he prepped with two innings of scoreless baseball. He made four straight road starts for the Reds in late July and early August and they won all four outings. He kept the Reds in each game and the offense came around and got him the victory.
Joe Saunders (1-2, 3.86 ERA) is on the mound for Arizona, making his fifth start in a D’Backs’ uniform. They have dropped three of his previous four, including Friday’s at Washington when he allowed four runs on 10 hits in six innings of a 4-2 loss. His last home start was ugly too as he gave up six runs in six innings to the Padres, losing 10-1.
Cincinnati has won seven straight games in the Arizona desert and they are 15-3 in the last 18 meetings overall with the D’Backs. The Reds are on further streaks of 6-0 on the road, 6-1 as favorites, 5-1 against the N.L. West and 22-8 when they are on the road against teams with losing home records.
Meanwhile, Arizona is on slides of 16-36 as a home underdog, 4-10 against winning teams, 8-21 in the third game of a series, 2-6 on Thursdays and 1-5 overall.
Arizona is just a bad team and not playing very good baseball. Go with Cincinnati to get the win and continue to dominate the D’Backs. Play the Reds.
4♦ CINCINNATI