Scott Delaney
My free choice for Thursday night will be the White Sox over the Twins, and I want you listing both pitchers - Mark Buehrle and Carl Pavano.
They just met on July 17, and Buehrle pitched well enough to win, lasting eight innings and giving up just three earned runs. But Pavano was just a little bit better.
Today Buehrle gets revenge, as he comes in on the heels of nabbing career win No. 146, and looking to up his win total against the team he has his highest win/loss total against at 24-17.
He is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his last five outings, and has thrown a quality start in nine of his last 10 starts.
After losing a marathon last night to the Twins, look for the White Sox to prevail tonight - be sure to list both.
3♦ CHICAGO
BRETT ATKINS
Back-to-back free winners after the Phillies destroyed the Giants on Wednesday night and cashed our ticket. Tonight, I'm going with the White Sox on the road in Minnesota to salvage one game of this three-game set.
The White Sox have backed themselves into a corner here tonight as they dropped the first two games of this series and they’ve fallen five games behind the Twins in the race for the A.L. Central division.
Ozzie Guillen and the boys know they’ve got to put an end to this and it has to be lefty Mark Buehrle that gets it done for them tonight. He has held the opposition to three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, including on Friday when he limited the Tigers to three runs in 6.1 innings of an 8-4 victory.
Carl Pavano goes for Minnesota tonight and he was hit hard on Friday when he gave up 10 hits in 6.1 innings of a 4.3 victory. The Twins are just 4-11 on Thursdays and 1-5 the last six times Pavano has started on Thursday.
Chicago is on streaks of 8-1 on Thursdays, 5-0 when Buehrle gets five days of rest, 5-2 when he starts the third game of a series and 5-2 against division rivals.
The White Sox will come out swinging as they are backed into this corner. Play Chicago and look for Buehrle to deliver a gem.
2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
JAY MCNEIL
Cleveland at Kansas City
The Royals will win their fourth straight tonight with ease, as they've dominated the Tribe this season.
Having won five straight against the Indians, Kansas City is playing with a wealth of momentum right now, and that's something I like to look for in the second half of the season: the right teams, in the right spots, with the right momentum.
I won't list either pitcher, this is simply a straight shot on the Royals at a decent price.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Craig Trapp
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Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Would even lay the run line for half this bet as the LAD have big pitching advantage. Lilly has won all three of his starts for the LAD going 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA. For COL they turn to really up and down DeLaRosa who has been really down in his career vs LAD. The Rockies are 0-8 against the Dodgers when the left-hander pitches, with De La Rosa going 0-5 with a 6.56 ERA in seven starts and one relief outing. If thats not enough add to the fact that the LAD are finally starting to hit again. This one look very easy as trends don't lie in this one!
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -114
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The Indians are struggling, having lost 8 of their last 10. Plus, they have lost their last 5 meetings with the Royals. I expect Cleveland's struggles to continue with Talbot on the hill. The Indians have lost each of his last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 7.71. The Royals, winners of 3 straight, are in better hands with Davies. They are 6-2 in his last 8 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of just 3.37 over his last 3. Davies is also 3-1 in his last 4 starts against Cleveland while Talbot is 0-1 against the Royals. Talbot's loss to KC came earlier this season when he was shelled for 6 runs in 6 innings. Take KC at home at a nice price.
Tom Freese
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Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Dodgers starter Ted Lilly has won all 3 of his starts since coming to the Dodgers in a trade. In those 3 starts has allowed just 4 runs total. Los Angeles is 54-26 their last 80 home games vs. the Rockies. The Dodgers are 38-15 their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. Colorado starter Jorge De la Rosa has not pitched past the seventh inning in any start this year. The Rockies are 16-36 their last 52 games as road underdogs and they are 0-7 off a win. Colorado is 1-4 in the 5 road starts made by De La Rosa and they are 4-11 their last 15 road games.
Lenny Del Genio
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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox beat the Angels 7-5 yesterday to make it 9 straight wins over LA this season. Tonight, the Sox send Beckett and he's had an injury riddled season and hasn't been able to get on track. In his 13 starts although he's posted an 8-5 team start record his ERA is an awful 6.51. He?s opposed by Santana who?s been unable to get anyone out of late with a 6.88 ERA in his last three starts. Something has to give tonight and we think the Red Sox will beat up Santana and once again give Becket the run support he needs. When pitching against the Red Sox Santana has a very lofty 5.05 ERA and the Sox bats are hot hitting .289 and scoring 6.1 runs per game over their last seven games. The Angels pen blew a save last night and LA doesn't bounce back well as they are 1-11 this season after a game where their bull pen blew the save. We?re playing the Sox.
Sac Lawson
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OAK (-130) vs TAM
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Short and to the point with this freebie. Andy Sonnanstine does not have a spot in the rotation for the Rays. It's only a matter of time before they become healthy and hedge him outta there. He was roughed up a bit in his first start back with the big club, but the stat sheet doesn't quite do that performance justice. I do not like Sonnanstine's style, he's wild while at the same time being hittable. The A's can plate runs at home, don't be fooled.
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On the other side, Cahill has been a monster this season and has given up just one earned in his last 32 innings. Just crazy. Gotta ride the hot hand until he shows us otherwise!
JR O'Donnell
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LOS (-145) vs COL
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Let's break this baby down as the Rockies poor righty Jorge De La Rosa brings a terrible 0-5 mark with a 6+ ERA tonight. The 61-60 Dodgers need to win here boys and Ted Lilly will spin a gem tonight @ home vs the Rockies. The last outing Ted Lilly spun a nice 3 hit 6+ inning performance, He is a Rock and the Los Dodgers play well behind him, The Rockies are banged up and losing confidence, This Lefty De La Rosa is not the answer for the Rocks on the road tonight. JR O has nice power stats @ a 2.88 run difference and the pure fact that De La Rosa gets shelled by the Dodgers puts us on this nice sharpie.
SPORTS WAGERS
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HOUSTON –1.04 over NY Mets THESPREAD.COM
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One has to believe that Bud Norris has a much better chance of pitching deeper into this game than Pat Misch and that’s significant because both pens are running on fumes after last night’s marathon. Misch has made one start this season and while it was a decent one, don’t put too much emphasis on it. At the age of 29, Misch is pretty much a career minor-leaguer and his time in the big leagues has been unimpressive at best. Last season he went 3-4 with a 4.48 ERA in 62 IP for NYM/SF. That was discouraging and his performances continue to free-fall. When his control waffles, he's tossing batting practice and he’s no better vs LHB, so he can't even fall back on situational work. He got very lucky last week vs the Phillies with a 90% strand rate, a 1.67 WHIP and he struck out just two batters. Incidentally, the Astros are so much better when facing a lefty, as their 18-14 record will attest to. Bud Norris should be back on your radar if he's not there already. The potential to dominate is there and he also showed a strong groundball tilt in July (52%). Norris has to develop another pitch because he’s basically a two-pitch hurler and that’s why he runs into trouble. However, the Mets offense is laboring badly and there’s a great chance David Wright will sit this one out after being pulled in the 12th inning last night because of dehydration and light-headedness. Regardless of whether Wright sits or goes, the price on the Astros is a cheap one. Play: Houston –1.04 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
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Washington +1.92 over ATLANTATHESPREAD.COM
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Note the 1:05 PM EST start. The Braves picked up Derek Lee but he’ll stay in Chicago and wait for the Braves to arrive there for the weekend series. A big acquisition usually doesn’t sit too well for the first few days because there are guys in the dugout that have been playing their butts off and now this move takes away their playing time. It’s not like the team was slumping either, as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight and that makes the part-timers feel even worse. This is absolutely a vulnerable spot for Atlanta. Derek Lowe’s ERA has been around 4.50 all year. He’s capable of an implosion at any time because he relies heavily on one pitch and if that pitch isn’t working, he’s in big trouble. It usually is working well but as a 2-1 favorite, it’s too big a risk to take. Let’s also not forget that he’s 37 and he rarely makes it past the sixth inning. Lowe has a .276 BAA, a below average WHIP of 1.41 and he’s 0-2 vs the Nats this year with a 6.75 ERA. The terrible start to the season landed John Lannan back in AA-Harrisburg, where the Nationals hoped he would regain some confidence. What he needed to regain was the ability to command his pitches, as a greater number of walks than strikeouts is not a recipe for success. In three games back since the demotion, Lannan has walked just four batters in 18 innings and has an ERA of 3.00. He also has a high groundball rate of 49% and he also has his confidence back. The bottom line here is that there’s too much value against Lowe to ignore this one, as the Nats have a very legit shot at a win here. Play: Washington +1.92 (Risking 2 units).
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Winnipeg +11½ over MONTREALTHESPREAD.COM
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The Winnipeg Blue Bombers could be the most undervalued team in the CFL. Sitting at 2-5, it is easy to see why its stock is so low but a turnaround appears imminent and tonight’s matchup could be a step in the right direction. Steven Jyles will start tonight and he’s a far better option than Buck Pierce as Pierce’s fragile frame leaves instability under center. Jyles relieved Pierce last week and despite going 14-22 for 229 yards, the Bombers were simply too far behind to make a comeback against the Ti-Cats. Jyles has been steady having not thrown a pick since his first start and he also owns the second-best QB-efficiency rating in the CFL. While the Bombers offense has underachieved, it remains a talented group. After getting rocked last week in a game they were favored by 4½, they’re now getting 11½ in Montreal, which is a pointspread turnaround of 15-points. The Alouettes might be the most overvalued team in the league. Most expect them to bounce back from a rather embarrassing loss to the Argos but don’t count on it. They’ve been quite average all year and have performed miserably for six straight quarters now. The Als are 5-2 but could just as easily be 2-5 after very close calls against B.C., Edmonton and Saskatchewan. The Montreal’s defense is weaker than it’s been in years and that should allow Jyles and this potentially potent Bomber offense many scoring opportunities. Jyles and the Bombers have been a missed pass away from pulling off two upsets this season, one against the TiCats and one against the Stampeders and they could be in a similar situation tonight. Upset possibility but the points are extremely juicy. Overlay. Play: Winnipeg +11½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Rocketman
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres
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San Diego is 72-47 overall this year and in 1st place in the NL West. Chicago Cubs are a disappointing 50-71 overall this season. San Diego is 7-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this year. San Diego is 36-26 on the road this year. San Diego is 25-13 this year in day games. San Diego is 34-16 this year against teams with a losing record. San Diego is 15-4 this year in the 2nd half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record. San Diego is 9-1 their last 10 overall games. Chicago Cubs have lost 10 of their last 13 games overall. San Diego bullpen has a 2.80 ERA overall this year and a 3.13 ERA on the road this season. Mat Latos is 12-5 with a 2.32 ERA overall this year, 8-3 with a 2.40 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA his last 3 starts. Carlos Zambrano is 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego has won all three meetings this year. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego today!
BIG AL
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Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
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This series could be billed as the battle to get out of the basement of the AL Central however the future is considerably brighter than the present for both of these teams. A nucleus of talented, young players give both the Royals and Indians hope that they will not be perennial cellar-dwellers every season for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately for Cleveland, one of those bright, young players, catcher Carlos Santana, is lost for the season after putting up numbers that would have put him in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors had he stayed healthy. Tonight's starter for the home team, righthander Kyle Davies has pitched very well since the beginning of July, as in April through June, the veteran starter had eight starts (out of a total of 15) in which he had allowed four or more runs. But in his eight starts since July, Davies has only had one such outing, and that one was in the Bronx against the best offense in the league, a game in which Davies surrendered four runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Royals still won that game, and in fact they have been victorious in six of Davies' eight July and August outings. Righthander Mitch Talbot is having the opposite season that Davies is. Through June, Talbot was 8-6 with a 3.88 ERA for the Tribe, but since then he has been getting hit hard and he enters this start at 8-10 with a 4.25 ERA and he is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three. Heading into Wednesday, the Royals are 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Take KC.
Nelly
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Texas / Baltimore Over
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Brian Matusz continues to struggle for the Orioles, allowing four of more runs in four of his last seven starts. Only twice in that span did Matusz pitch more than five innings and his record at home is 1-7 on the year. Opponents are batting over .270 against the left-hander and Texas hit him hard the last time these teams met as Matusz allowed four runs in just three innings, walking four batters in the process. Baltimore has played much better ball in the last two weeks but the bullpen is still an ongoing issue, featuring a 4.48 ERA for the season. The Texas bullpen has blown up in the last week as well with a 6.06 ERA in the past ten games. The Rangers have allowed at least three runs in ten consecutive games and the first place Rangers are just 6-9 so far in August, leaving the door open for one of the other west teams to make a move. Texas was swept by the Orioles at home just before the all star break and this will be a key series for the Rangers. Colby Lewis has been pitching well in recent weeks but he has benefited from starts in Oakland and Seattle. Overall Lewis owns a 3.52 ERA away from home and while he has been a strong 'under' pitcher, this should be a more difficult scenario as the Orioles have been producing great recent numbers against right-handed pitching. The trends point to the 'under' but the contrarian's play looks promising with the Rangers playing as heavy road favorites in a revenge series coming off a sour performance in Tampa Bay.
Wunderdog
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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres have 72 wins on the season - more than any NL team, and the 72 wins are just shy of the Yankees’ and Rays’ 74. The oddsmakers simply don't treat this team with the same respect that they do the Yankees, but the bottom line is that they have shown with their 72 wins to be just as good. They are not only good, they are hot as they are 9-1 in their last 10. So if the Yankees were here behind Sabathia what would the moneyline be? Much higher, but Matt Latos is having a much better year than Sabathia, with an ERA almost 1 run lower. The Padres are also 10-4 on the road behind Latos. The Cubs meanwhile, appear to have mailed it in at 4-17 in their last 21. I like San Diego here.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -148
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The White Sox are now just 6-21 in their last 27 meetings with the Twins. They are also just 5-22 in their last 27 meetings in Minnesota. In addition, the Sox are only 1-5 in Buehrle's last 6 road starts vs. the Twins. Meanwhile, Minnesota ace Carl Pavano is 5-1 in his last 6 starts against Chicago, holding the Sox to 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Twins are 7-1 in Pavano's last 8 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the American League Central and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The White Sox are just 5-14 in Buehrle's last 19 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Twins.