Doug Upstone
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Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers ran into a blitz in Tampa Bay usually reserved for the Buccaneers and were swept, being outscored 24-11. Their road trip continues, with four games against Baltimore. Having incentive in crap cake-land shouldn’t be an issue since the Orioles took all four games in Texas just over a month ago.
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The Rangers are 41-19 vs. clubs with losing records and Baltimore has reverted to being, well Baltimore and is 2-18 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span this season. Strongly consider all money line favorites of -110 or higher after allowing eight runs or more two straight games, against opponent off a loss by two runs or less. This system has won 76 percent of the time the past 13 years and is torching the books since 2008 with 19-3 mark.
Info Plays
3* on Los Angeles Angels +136
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Reasons the Angels win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL). This is a 35-15 ML System hitting 70% since 1997. This system is 2-0 this season.
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2.) Josh Beckett has posted a 6.51 ERA in 13 starts this season. Clearly, he is off his game and cannot figure anything out. Ervin Santana sports a 3.70 ERA in 11 road starts this season. The Angels will be playing for serious pride tonight after losing 9 straight meetings this season to Boston. Bet Los Angeles on the road.
Tony Stoffo
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Cincinnati Reds
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Strong release on the Reds here tonight as we have a double streak play in effect here, and tonight's pitching match up favors them also in a big way here. First off Cincinnati is playing solid as of late having now won 5 straight, just the opposite can be said for the Diamondbacks as there are on a current 3 game losing streak. So the Reds definitely get the nod in this category. Plus I also can see the Reds easily getting to the Arizona starter Joe Saunders tonight. Saunders in his last 2 starts against the Nationals and Padres has given up 10 runs, and 18 hits in only 12 innings pitched. While Travis Wood is pitching great right now as in his last 3 starts he has given up only 5 earned runs, and 11 hits in 18+ innings pitched resulting in a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. Add this all up and you can see why Cincinnati becomes the right side in this spot.
DWAYNE BRYANT
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OAKLAND -120
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I just couldn't make a big play on the A's three days in a row without feeling like I was going to the well once too often. But I feel they're worth a small action play in this situation tonight. The Rays played yesterday afternoon in their St. Petersburg, FL home and had to travel cross country for this game, while the A's played at home yesterday afternoon. The Rays have to face Trevor Cahill, who just so happens to own a sick 1.66 ERA & 0.95 WHIP in his 10 home starts this season. Sonnanstine faced the A's once last season (in Oakland) and got rocked for 7 runs & 10 hits in just four innings. Cahill got rocked by the Rays last year, too, but I have more faith in Cahill at home tonight (given his home dominance this season) than Sonnanstine on the road. The A's pen is normally solid at home, yesterday's collapse notwithstanding.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics Oakland
Pick Oakland Athletics
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Trevor Cahill is one of the most underrated starters in the league. Oakland's Ace is 12-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.981 WHIP this season, 7-2 with a 1.66 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 0.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. Andy Sonnanstine has not been able to hold a spot in Tampa Bay's rotation. Sonnanstine is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five career starts vs. Oakland.
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Coming off a big series sweep against the Texas Rangers, I look for the Rays to suffer an emotional letdown Thursday as they head out to Oakland for Game 1 of a 4-game set. Tampa is just 9-27 against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 5 game span since 1997. The A's have won 15 of Cahill's 21 starts this year. The A's are 7-0 in Cahill's last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 14-3 in Cahill's last 17 starts as a favorite. That includes an 8-1 record in Cahill's last 9 starts as a home favorite. Bet Oakland Thursday.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Oakland A's -120
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I won't hesitate to back Cahill tonight. The guy is 7-2 w/ an ERA of 1.66 at home this season, and his ERA is an even lower 0.37 over his last 3 starts. The Rays are just 14-38 in their last 52 meetings in Oakland, and they should continue to struggle against the A's with Sonnanstine on the hill. In fact, the Rays are 0-6 in Sonnanstine's last 6 road starts. Take the A's.
Insider Angles
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
It is no big secret that the Indianapolis Colts are one of the worst preseason teams in the entire NFL, but this may be their best chance to get a win this preseason as the Buffalo Bills were atrocious in their opener and do mot merit being favored by more than a field goal here.
The Bills gave up the most points in Week 1 of this exhibition season, as they wee annihilated 42-17 by the Washington Redskins, and to add insult to injury so to speak, they lost running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch both to injury. This leaves them very thin at the position with the talented but raw rookie C.J. Spiller now topping the depth chart, and the lack of a running game won’t make things easier for Buffalo’s mediocre at best quarterbacks.
Now the Colts obviously do not care about preseason, as they were 10-20 under Tony Dungy and are now 1-4 under Jim Caldwell, but remember also that Buffalo coach Chan Gailey’s previous NFL coaching experience was with a Dallas Cowboys team that also does not take preseason seriously, so it could simply be that the Bills’ dismal performance was due to Gailey being more interested in seeing what he had on his roster than with being competitive.
As bad as the Colts are at this time of year, they do fall into a fantastic preseason Week 2 system that says to take any Week 2 underdog that lost in Week 1, as this has gone 48-15-2, 76.2 percent against the spread since the 2000 season! Even the Colts have gone 3-2-1 ATS in this situation, and their only preseason win last year did come in Week 2.
Besides that, preseason underdogs getting +3.5 points or more are 35-25, 58.3 percent against the spread and this is one of the few cases where the Indianapolis reserves are not overmatched by the reserves of their opponents.
With the all-important hook on the three here, take the points with the Colts.
Pick: Colts +3.5
Glenn McGrew
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Rays at A’s
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Tampa Bay is a very live dog, thick in the middle of the pennant races while Oakland is way out of it. The Rays go with Andy Sonnanstine, who is 3-1 overall and sports a 3.48 ERA his last three starts. He doesn’t walk anyone and allows fewer hits than innings pitched. Tampa Bay has been a sensational road team all season. Play the Rays.
O.C. Dooley
Falcons -2.5
Tonight marks the final HOME game of the preseason for an Atlanta contingent that dating all the way back to the 1993 season made bettors a pretty penny (25-12 ATS) when playing inside a DOME facility. The Falcons successfully covered the spread in their home opener even though the “first team” offense put just 3 points on the scoreboard, which gives you an idea how potent the various reserves on this squad can be. The fact of the matter is that New England is flat out running out of reserves as there is a shot they will suit up just 62-to-65 players. Normally at this early stage of the preseason with expanded rosters teams in general have “80 man” rosters, but the Patriots have already announced that 13 different injured players will NOT be in attendance and a few other may not suit up as well including linebacker Thomas Williams. Veteran receiver Wes Walker did make the trip for New England but with knee problems most likely will be held out for a second consecutive preseason contest, especially since tonight’s game is being played on a “hard turf”. In week one defensive end Ty Warren suffered a devastating season-ending injury which is a major issue for the Patriots who already have a young secondary. New England entered this season relying on their defensive line to shoulder the load but with Warren shelved they will have to plug the hole on the left end of their defense, while hoping the pass rush does not suffer. The problem for tonight’s visitor is that the defensive pass rush was not all that strong in 2009. New England headed into last week’s preseason opener dealing with plenty of adversity as Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins was demanding to be traded over salary issues. The interior of the New England offensive line is extremely thin with few quality reserves. The Patriots are also thin at the outside linebacker slot as 2 players did not make the road trip while veteran Derrick Burgess was a training camp “no show”. Getting back to Atlanta keep an eye on tonight’s price tag as the Falcons are a solid 27-13 ATS long term in near “pick em” spots (+3/-3) like this