River City Sharps
Braves / Reds Over 8
At the All Star break, the Cincinnati Reds were sitting in a pretty good spot to not only contend for a wildcard, but possibly win the NL Central. Oh how the times are changing! The Reds come home reeling, losers of eight of their last nine games and now finding themselves 6.5 games out of the NL wildcard. The Reds will give the ball to Triple-A lefty David Holmberg to take on the Atlanta Braves and Julio Teheran (11-9, 3.06) Holmberg will be making just his second major league start of the season and was shelled in his first one, a loss to the Chicago Cubs. While Teheran has been solid for the Braves this season, the road has not been real friendly for him as he is sporting a 6-7 mark with a 4.27 in his road starts. The Over is a perfect 8-0 in the Reds last eight games as the underdog and 9-2 in the Braves last 11 games when they face a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or greater. We think the Braves are going to hit Holmberg early and often, but we also expect some home cooking to help the Reds wake up a bit and get to Teheran. We have this one Over the posted total, so fire away.
LT Profits
Arizona vs Washington
Pick: Under 7.5
Gio Gonzalez is having a disappointing year for the Washington Nationals but he has been better lately and is facing an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup he can handle. He allowed a total of five runs over his last two starts with 15 strikeouts, he limited the D-Backs to two runs in 6.1 innings the last time he faced them and he is facing an Arizona lineup batting a putrid .157 vs. lefties the last 10 games, averaging 2.31 runs against them. Fellow southpaw Wade Miley had a rough outing three starts back where he allowed 10 earned runs to skew his stats, but that was one of just two times in his last nine starts he allowed more than three runs. He also held the Nats to one earned run in seven innings the last time he faced them. The ‘under’ is 12-4-3 in Miley’s last 19 road starts.
Sleepyj
Atlanta -1.5 +110
This Atlanta team has been red hot. They have more runs over the last week than i can remember in a good amount of time. It's always nice to back a team who is hitting the ball well up and down the lineup. On the other hand Cincy has struggled. They have lost the 5 games they have played. Atlanta will face LHP Holmberg tonight who hasn't yet proved himself in the majors. I think it could be a rough outing as the Braves have been hitting the LHP quite well for a stretch. The combination of Tehran and the Braves run support tonight really makes us like this play. Cincy is coming back home tonight and i think we will see a rather relaxed team here tonight with Cincy. The Braves have really just been getting after it all around and it has show with the recent success of wins. There may be some rain in the forecast as well so be aware of that. This is more of a play here on a red hot Atlanta team. Let's back the Braves tonight as i think we see a rather lopsided game tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels -1½ +138 over BOSTON
Their leading hitter at .294 is Brock Holt, who bats leadoff and is currently in a 0-8 slump. The bottom four in the order are hitting .194, .250, .225 and .214 respectively. Cleanup hitter, Yoenis Céspedes, the dude they traded Jon Lester for, is batting .252 on the year but has just five hits in his past 27 AB’s and hasn’t had more than one hit in a game in his last 15 games. There’s a good chance that both Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will sit this one out, as both have minor injuries and Napoli missed last night. The Red Sox are down to their third string catcher, David Ross. Xander Bogaerts has one hit in his last 19 AB’s. Boston has dropped four in a row and five of six with its only victory over that span coming against the Astros. Rubby De La Rosa gets this start and he’s done his best work at Fenway Park. In six starts at home, De La Rosa is 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA. However, that is where the positives end, as only one of his past seven starts were of the pure quality variety. De La Rosa has a 14/15 BB/K split over his past 27 innings. He has a WHIP of 1.93 over his past five starts. His swinging strike rate is getting worse, as batters are starting to lay off his pitches because he can’t throw strikes. De La Rosa fooled some Angels on August 10 in Anaheim but he’s not going to fool them again now that they’ve seen him. Over his last seven starts, De La Rosa has a 1.72 WHIP and a 5.83 xERA. His actual ERA of 3.79 on the year and 3.25 ERA at home is nothing but fool’s gold.
By contrast, Matt Shoemaker has been very consistent for a rookie pitcher, allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Four of his six starts on the road have resulted in pure quality starts. Shoemaker is 5-1 on the road with an unappealing 5.70 ERA but his high ERA away from the “Big A” is a direct result of unfortunate hit and strand rates. In 42 innings since July 1, Shoemaker is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 xERA, 8.6 K’s/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44% groundball rate. The Angels have a big edge offensively, they have an edge on the mound with a pitcher that throws strikes opposing one that doesn’t and from a state of mind standpoint, L.A.’s edge is massive. Get out the brooms.
Atlanta -1½ +109 over CINCINNATI
The Reds have two wins over their past 12 games and both victories occurred with Johnny Cueto starting. Cincinnati has also lost five straight and the pitching staff has allowed 38 runs over that span. The bullpen is not only garbage but they’re also running on fumes and they figure to be needed early in this one. Enter David Holmberg, who is ready to serve as an emergency call-up due to last Sunday's doubleheader. His only other start this season was also the result of a doubleheader. Holmberg started the back end on July 8, allowing five earned runs and three jacks in just 2.2 innings. His results at AAA-Louisville don't warrant a promotion. In 17 starts at Louisville, covering 87.1 innings, Holmberg went 1-6 with a BB/K split of 32/50, a 4.64 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. Holmberg is a lefty and the Braves .267 BA against southpaws on the road is the second best mark in the NL. After this game, Holmberg will be headed back down to Louisville and he may never return.
Julio Teheran is a case study in why post-hype targets can be profit centers. This former top prospect's K surge came with full swing and miss support and his three years of improving control tells us he hasn't reached his ceiling yet, even if xERA points towards some minor regression. In 177 innings, Teheran has a BB/K split of 41/153. Current Reds have just seven hits in 38 career AB’s against Teheran for a BA of just .184. There’s a good chance that Teheran will be throwing some easy innings if the Braves score early. Judging by Holmberg’s brutal profile, only severe good fortune will prevent the Braves from scoring early and often.
Pass NFL
Tony Stoffo
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 6.5
With David Price matching up against Alex Cobb in this early start today sure makes for an extremely lower scoring game and a highly recommended play on the under in this spot here. Price faces his old team here; he is 1-0, 3.18 iu three starts for Detroit. Cobb is 4-0, 1.55 in his last seven starts. Under is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8 games following a win. Under is 8-2-2 in the Rays last 12 overall. Umpire Trend - 10 of last 14 Little games stayed under total.
Larry Ness
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
The San Diego Padres may be glad to miss Zack Greinke but instead they'll draw Clayton Kershaw and they can't be too happy about that. Kershaw (14-3, 1.86 ERA) was moved up to give Greinke (elbow) extra rest. The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner threw a shortened bullpen session Tuesday and will be pitching on regular rest thanks to Monday's day off.
He's looking to bounce back after suffering a rare loss Saturday against Milwaukee. The left-hander, who had posted a 1.16 ERA in winning his previous 11 decisions, threw a five-hitter but allowed two HRs (for the first time this season) and struck out 11 in the 3-2 defeat. "He's the best pitcher in baseball and he's been on a historically great run. It's incredible," Brewers slugger Ryan Braun told MLB's official website. "It's kind of fun to watch from afar. It's obviously extremely difficult to beat him. It hasn't happened much this year."
Kershaw had a 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP (232-52 KW ratio with opponents batting .195) last year in winning his 2nd Cy Young. His ERA is 1.89 this year (WHIP is 0.84) plus his KW ratio is 174-19 with opponents batting .198. Those numbers are pretty similar but the HUGE difference is, while the Dodgers were 19-14 (minus-$642) in his starts last year, they are 16-4 (plus-$882) so far in 2014. That's QUITE a drastic improvement!
The Dodgers have dropped FIVE of seven after falling 4-1 on Wednesday and their lead over San Francisco has been reduced to three games. Eric Stults threw five strong innings for San Diego, which improved to 11-6 this month. The Padres haven't posted a winning record in any full month since going 16-11 last September. Tyson Ross (11-11, 2.70 ERA) starts opposite Kershaw in this one and had allowed two ERs or less in 10 consecutive starts before Friday's 4-2 loss at St. Louis. The right-hander yielded three runs and four walks over six innings, dropping to 2-4 with a 3.44 ERA in his last six road outings.
"Plain and simple, I just didn't have fastball command the first inning," Ross said after walking the first three batters he faced. "It's hard when you shoot yourself in the foot like that." Ross has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 in his last four starts despite a 2.63 ERA (Padres are 1-4 in his five career starts vs LA / Ross' ERA is 2.51). He's struck out 31 over 24 innings during those showings but received just a combined two runs of support.
Kershaw has made 22 career starts vs the Padres, posting a 2.38 ERA, so I wouldn't expect Ross to get much support here, either. The price is high but justifiable.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Indians -139
Cleveland comes into this matchup having won each of the first two games of the series and are a scorching 7-2 over their last 9 overall. I see no reason why the Indians won't finish off the sweep with one of the league's hottest starters taking the mound. Cleveland's Corey Kluber has a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP over his last 3 starts and an impressive 1.31 ERA over his last 8 outings. Kluber has won 7 straight decisions.
The Twins will counter with Phil Hughes, who has also been pitching well of late. However, Hughes has an ugly 4.79 ERA over 13 home starts. Cleveland comes in hitting right-handed starters well, as they are averaging 4.7 runs and hitting .261 as a team. Hughes is due for a bad start and I look for him to struggle knowing that he has to pitch well with Kluber on the mound for the Indians.
Cleveland is 22-6 in Kluber's last 28 starts as a favorite, 15-3 in Kluber's last 18 starts after scoring 5+ runs last time out and 6-1 in his last 7 during game 3 of a series. Minnesota is 31-81 in their last 112 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-5 in Hughes' last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
There's also a solid system in play backing Cleveland. Favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings are 222-103 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Indians.
Mike Lundin
Atlanta vs. Cincinnati
Play: Over 8
The Braves and the Reds will open a four game set in Cincinnati tonight. The over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings at Great American Ball Park, and I expect this one to go over as well.
The 23 year old David Holmberg (0-0, 16.88 ERA) will make his second appearance in the major leagues for the season. He's only tossed 2 2/3 innings verus the Cubs so far, allowing five runs on seven hits, with three walks and three home runs.
Julio Teheran (11-9, 3.06 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Braves, and he's been hit hard on the road all season long, going 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA over 13 starts. His last outing away from home was a disaster, as he surrendered six runs on nine hits over six innings in a 7-3 loss at Seattle.
All of the Reds last five games has gone over the total.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
How focused can the starting two running backs for Pittsburgh be if they are caught in a car together with a ton of pot. Don’t get me wrong I think this country should worry about more severe things than guys catching a little puff from time to time, but laws are laws and these guys are dumb dumbs. I don’t know if the Steelers are going to play these two tonight, but there is a good chance they hold them out. If that is the case you have to love the Eagles chances with the rest of the Steelers backs having no experience. The Eagles have yet to get their high powered offense going, but trust me it is coming. There is no way the same unit from last year with a few upgrades is not going to prosper. This team just doesn’t need to give anything away on film. Tonight they should put up some points on declining Steelers Defense.
Pass MLB
Rocketman
LA Angels vs. Boston
Play: LA Angels -122
The LA Angels take on the Red Sox in Boston on Thursday night. The LA Angels are 75-50 overall this year while Boston comes in with a 59-70 overall record on the season. LA Angels are 41-15 this year against teams with a losing record including 19-5 in the 2nd half of the season. Boston is 6-17 last 3 years as a home underdog of +100 to +125. Angels are 7-1 last 8 games overall while Boston has lost 5 of their last 6. Angels are allowing only 3.1 runs per game their past seven games overall. Boston is allowing 5.7 runs per game their past seven games overall. Matt Shoemaker is 11-4 with a 3.84 ERA overall this year, 9-3 with a 3.76 ERA in all starts this year, 5-1 on the road this year and 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 7-2 at Boston past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels tonight!
Sports Atari
Angels -122
The Angels continue to have their way with the Red Sox as they go for the 4 game sweep in Fenway. LA has a decision to make here; cry about the loss of their best pitcher (Richards) to a knee injury yesterday or fight back with a stronger, more motivated push under the “next man up” way of thinking similar to the NFL.
LA has won 7 of 8 games while the Red Sox continue to sit at the bottom of the AL East after dropping 5 of 6. Matt Shoemaker is in a great spot to show his team that he’s the next best pitcher and the next man up. A 3-1, 2.66 ERA in his last 4 adds to a solid 11-4 season with an overall ERA of 3.84. The Angels are 5-1 when Shoemaker starts on the road in his last 6 attempts and 11-4 overall in his last 15 starts.
De la Rosa on the other hand is an ugly 1-2, 6.00 ERA in his last 5 starts despite decent numbers for the year at 4-4, 3.79. He is regressing and we’re catching him at the right time after giving up 6 runs, 9 hits, 4 walks in only 4 innings of work to the Astros in his last start. I don’t see him capable of handling the driven LA bats tonight who continue to lead the AL West with the A’s breathing down their neck.
Kevin Rogers
Braves at Reds
Play: Reds
The Reds return home after getting swept by the Cardinals, as Cincinnati hosts Atlanta. Julio Teheran shut out the Reds the last time he faced them earlier this season as a -105 home favorite against Johnny Cueto, as tonight Atlanta is a heavy road favorite while going 2-10 in their past 12 road games. David Holmberg makes his third start for Cincinnati, but this can benefit the Reds since the free-swinging Braves haven't seen the lefty yet. I'll back Cincinnati here to beat Atlanta.
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH (+3.5) over Philadelphia
The Eagles free agent acquisitions and draft were mostly centered on their defense but so far this preseason, they have not stopped anybody. Steelers generally lay down during the preseason but not during week three. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS during Mike Tomlin’s reign in all important week three games when the starters play more and with more intensity. The fact that 2 Steelers running backs were arrested yesterday for smoking weed will have no impact on this game as their teammates will put this minor indiscretion behind them and focus on earning jobs and continuing to improve their defense and no-huddle offense. Take Pittsburgh.
David Banks
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
The Battle of Pennsylvania will be televised on NFL Network on Thursday when the Philadelphia Eagles seek their first win of the NFL Preseason when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off of their first win, from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 7:30 ET. The Eagles have been on the short end of two shootouts so far, losing 34-28 to the Chicago Bears opening week and then 42-35 to the New England Patriots in Week 2, with both of those games being on the road. The Steelers opened with a road loss to the Giants before nipping the Buffalo Bills 19-16 on a last-second field goal last week.
Week 3 is normally the regular season dress rehearsal for most NFL teams with the starters seeing the most action they will see the entire preseason, and the Eagles may have added incentive here seeking their first win of 2014, especially with this being their first game at home. Their quarterbacks did a fine job last week for the second straight game with starter Nick Foles completing 8-of-10 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown and backups Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley combining to go 20-for-24 for 249 yards and three touchdowns, although each backup did throw an interception. Philadelphia will take a much longer look at Foles this game, not that he has much to prove after an amazing ratio of 27 touchdown passes vs. two interceptions in his breakout season last year, and they will look for a lot more from the running game.Yes the Eagles averaged 4.2 YPC vs. the Patriots, but that was primarily because third string running back Henry Josey gained 56 yards on his eight carries. At least Josey showed that he is capable in the event that starter LeSean McCoy is limited in this game or is held out entirely, which is conceivable as he is battling turf toe. The Eagles even acquired a running back this week in Kenjon Barner that played for Chip Kelly at Oregon and is thus familiar with the Eagle offense.
Pittsburgh Head Coach Mike Tomlin had been one of the best preseason coaches in football over his first six seasons with the club going 19-6 straight up over those years, but then his Steelers went 0-4 last preseason and made it five straight preseason losses in Week 1 before breaking through last week. This is a veteran team that is not accustomed to playing offenses that play as the blazing fast tempo that the Eagles do, and when you add in Philadelphia's probable determination to win a game to please its home fans, the Steelers may have their hands full on defense. And with the Steelers' probably not having the same urgency to win this game now that they got their win out of the way, look for them to be more concerned with running their normal offense when their starters are in the game as they prepare for the regular season than with trying to match the rapid-paced Eagles point for point, so expect to see heavy doses of running backs Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount as just about the only unknown on the Pittsburgh roster right now is how the carries between those two running backs will be allocated this year, although indications right now are that Bell should be the man between the 20s and Blount looks to be the goal line back.
The Eagles are 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS in their last nine preseason Week 3 dress rehearsals.
Bryan Power
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever
Play: Washington Mystics +5½
I'll be taking the points in Game 1 of this 1st round playoff series as anything above the requisite three points for home court advantage is a premium as far as I'm concerned. The WNBA's Eastern Conference was terrible this year w/ only one team finishing better than .500. The idea of laying this many points in a playoff setting w/ a sub-.500 team just doesn't seem very appetizing.
I have the Mystics rated as the better team in my own personal power rankings. While the Fever did win three in a row to lock up home court advantage for this series, prior to losing the meaningless regular season finale, they lost here at home to Washington back on August 8th laying an almost identical number. The final score of that game was 74-61, so it really wasn't even close.
The points look even more attractive when you consider that the road team won all four regular season matchups these teams played. The Mystics' two wins here in Indiana came by a combined 29 points! The extra rest should help Washington here as they're 5-1 ATS the last six times taking the court w/ 3+ days off. Take the points.