Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August, 22

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

When the Cubs send All-Star Travis Wood to the mound against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals in the finale of this four-game series at Wrigley Field Thursday afternoon, Chicago will do so knowing Wood is back in sharp KW form with 15 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts. Meanwhile, Strasburg enters with a road ERA (5.11) that is 3.5 runs per game higher than his home ERA (1.58) this season. With Strasburg 1-5 in his team starts against the NL Central this season, we'll back the live home dog here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Chicago Cubs.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs +140

Travis Wood is one of the best, if not the best, pitchers in the Cub's rotation. He has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.099 WHIP this season. Many times the Cubs have failed to provide Wood the run support he needs to win more games, but that should not be an issue today. The Cubs are scoring 4.2 runs per game at home this season and they will have an easier time scoring runs on Stephen Strasburg that most people think.

Strasburg has pitched some sensational games this year, but the bulk of those games were pitched on his home field. On the road Strasburg has a 1-5 record in 11 starts to go along with his 5.11 ERA. The National's offense has struggled on the road, batting just .225 and scoring a mere 3.3 runs per game. With both the offensive advantage, and the starting pitcher advantage there is simply too much value to pass up with the Cubs today.

Tony George

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3

The Panthers won last week but after checking the box score and recaps it appears they might have been a little lucky. Have to go with SB Champs at home -3, with their offense clicking. Ravens at home with a coach that likes to win and Carolina was beat in week one on the road against a disorganized Eagles team. Ravens simply the better team.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs. Giants
Play: Under 7

Pittsburgh is no offensive powerhouse, 24th in baseball in runs scored, 19th in on base percentage with little power. They are in first place with pitching and defense. The under is 14-6-2 in the Pirates last 22 vs. a team with a losing record. They face San Francisco ace Matt Cain, who is on a nice roll with a 3.00 ERA his last three starts walking only 3 and fanning 16. The under is 4-0-1 in the Giants last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-1-2 in under the total in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Art Aronson

White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 7½

Jose Quintana (7-4, 3.66 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Quintana dominated the Twins on Friday, holding them to two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out one over 6 2/3's innings in his team's eventual 5-2 victory. Quintana has yet to beat the Royals this year, going 0-1 in three starts despite sporting a respectable 3.63 ERA in that span. Quintana though will take his perfect 3-0, 3.66 ERA road record into Kansas City to throw opposite James Shields (8-8, 3.19 ERA) who gave up three hits and four walks while striking out one over seven scoreless frames in his team's eventual 3-0 win over the Tigers on Friday. Shields is now 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts and while past success guarantees nothing in the future, he'll be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that for the most part he's dominated the White Sox this year, going 1-1 with a 1.73 ERA in four games. If you've followed along with my free picks in the past, you know that "recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and there's no question that each of these hurlers comes into this contest with considerable momentum; two quality starters facing off on the bump, there's no question that the "under" becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

Freddy Wills

Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -140

Clayton Kershaw needs no introduction that's for sure as I don't even think he's ever fallen out of our hot pitching report all season. Kershaw has a 1.50 ERA this year during day games alone and has always pitched better during the day games. He's got 6 career starts vs. the Miami Marlins and posts a 2.38 ERA. What's even more impressive is that the Dodgers are #1 in ERA during day games this year. Their bullpen is pitching as good as any of late posting a 1.80 ERA over their last 10 games and their offense continues to click especially vs. RHP. Miami on the other hand is last in the league in OPS vs. LHP and will have a hard time against Kershaw. I rarely bet the run line but the Dodgers run line on the road has been a money casher all season. They have won a total 37 road games and 30 of the 37 have been by more than 1 run. Overall they have been absolutely on fire on the road and I think it continues early on Thursday against a Marlins team that really does not care about the season.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Mat Latos (2-1, 22.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 0.81 ERA)
Andrew Albers (1-2, 23 IP, 0.91 WHP, 2.74 ERA)
Justin Verlander (2-1, 24.1 IP, 0.66 WHIP, 1.85 ERA)
Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 17 IP, 0.88 WHIP, 2.12 ERA)
Joe Kelly (3-0, 16.2 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 2.70 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Trevor Cahill (1-2, 14.1 IP, 2.02 WHIP, 10.05 ERA)
Jeff Locke (1-2, 14 IP, 2.29 WHIP, 7.71 ERA)
Paul Maholm (0-3, 13.1 IP, 2.25 WHIP, 10.12 ERA)

JR O'Donnell

Detroit Lions @ -1.5

We will go with the 1-1 Detroit Lions @ home vs the New England Pats Thursday the 22nd of August. We feel that Coach Swartz will get the D back together & playing well after last weeks torch job by Browns Qb Weeden. 8-12 last week and 2 tds. Last weeks performance was a train wreck for these Lions, poor O , poor D and special teams yet we believe in these Detroit Lion who have the talent. C J is a beast @ WO!!!! On the flip side these Pats come in 2-0 wins over Phila/Tampa Bay and the more we watch the Pats it is just that system they run. Huge Vegas Respect Move with these Detroit Lions @ -1.5. Play these Lions to roll .

Matt Fargo

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks

Cincinnati and Arizona have alternated wins in this series and the Diamondbacks are in need of that continuing so they can salvage the split before heading to Philadelphia over the weekend. Arizona is now five games over .500 on the season and it trails St. Louis and Cincinnati by six games in the Wild Card standings so this game amounts to a two-game swing depending upon the outcome. Trevor Cahill takes the mound for Arizona for his second start since coming off the disabled list. He struggled mightily prior to his DL stint which lasted over six weeks and in his first start back, he was far from sharp as he allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings at Pittsburgh. I expect him to put up a much better effort here though in his first career start against the Reds. Cincinnati moved back to within two and a half games of Pittsburgh in the National League Central with the victory last night. This team continues to battle the injury bug as the bullpen took another hit with the loss of Jonathan Broxton so the Reds are hoping Mat Latos can put together a lengthy outing today. He has been outstanding of late as he has tossed five straight quality outings, posting a 1.25 ERA in the process so while it may not seem smart to go against him here, the contrarian aspect is giving us a ton of value on a team that is not as far back as this moneyline is telling us. Arizona lit Latos up in his last start here a season ago as they scored five runs n four innings in a 7-1 victory.

Jeffrey Brandes

Rockies vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9

After three mostly competitive starts, Chad Bettis turned in a clunker Saturday night at Baltimore, when he gave up seven hits and four walks in 2 2/3 innings of a loss. But six of the eight runs against him were unearned. He will be making his 5th career start today. Three of the first four starts of Bettis' career have come on the road, where he is 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA. Kyle Kendrick has a 4.96 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3

There are no fancy systems like we have in the other game tonight. However the Ravens do apply to some solid Angles in this one. The Ravens have won and covered 4 of 5 in the Preseason series with Carolina and are 4-0 vs NFC South teams. Baltimore has covered in 6 of the last 7 at home in game three. They are off a big come from behind win last Week vs Atlanta. Now they take on Carolina who has lost 6 straight in their 2nd road game of the Preseason and the last 3 games played against AFC North Division teams. Carolina is off a close loss to Philadelphia in their last game. This the 3rd game and we can expect and extended look at the starters in this game. Carolina a could have a hard time stopping a Baltimore team that has put up 71 points in the first 2 games. We will back Baltimore in this one.

Jesse Schule

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The Braves won in extra-innings in New York yesterday afternoon, but they lost Jason Heyward who was hit by a pitch, suffering a broken jaw. The Cardinals will host Atlanta in Game 1 of a three game series on Thursday night, and St. Louis returns home from a successful road trip, winning four of it's last five. Joe Kelly will toe the rubber for the home team, and he's been on top form lately. Kelly (4-3, 3.01 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings allowing just four hits in a win over the Cubs his last time out. He's 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven starts since July 6, and the Cardinals have won six of those seven games. The Braves hand the ball to left-hander Paul Maholm, who makes his return from the DL. Maholm (9-9, 4.41 ERA) has been a Jeckyll and Hyde pitcher at home and on the road. He's 5-2, 1.93 ERA at home, but he's 4-7 with an ERA over 6.00 on the road. He hasn't faced the Cardinals this year, but last season he was 0-1 with a 5.92 ERA in three starts, allowing 11 runs over 17 innings. Carlos Beltran hit a home run yesterday, and he's hitting .375 with a pair of home runs in 24 career at bats versus Maholm. Allen Craig is 6-for-14 with three doubles and a homer lifetime versus the lefty. This isn't the greatest spot for Maholm to make his return to the rotation.

Bruce Marshall

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards might be shaking from their post-All Star game slump, winning four of five and scoring some runs in the process. That includes 25 of those the past four games, a welcome relief for a pitching staff that could have sued for non-support most of the past month. Not that it has much bothered Redbird starter Joe Kelly, a revelation for skipper Mike Matheny since joining the rotation from the bullpen; Kelly is 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA in seven starts since July 6 and matched a season high with six strikeouts his last time out, yielding four hits over six innings of a 4-0 road win over the Cubs on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Braves have cooled a bit since their 145-game win streak and now might be minus OF Jason Heyward for over a month after the broken jaw he suffered when hit by a pitch on Wednesday. Paul Maholm also makes his first start off of the DL after sitting out the past month with wrist problems, although his last few efforts were awful and his road ERA is a hefty 6.03 this season. He's also struggled in the past vs. the Cards, with an 0-3 record and a 6.18 ERA in his last five vs. St. Louis.

Alex Smart

White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 7.5

White Sox LH Jose Quintana (7-4, 3.66 ERA) vs. Royals RH James Shields (8-8, 3.19) Quintana the White Sox starting hurer today vs the Royals held the Twins to two runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings in his last trip to the hill, the eighth time in nine starts he has allowed three runs or less. In his career vs the Royals spanning 6 starts, he owns a solid 3.96 ERA against them. It must be noted that the struggling Royals have gone Under at a 5-0-1 rate in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter like Quintana. Overall the Under is 21-7-1 in Royals last 29 games vs. a left-handed starter.The Royals are in a huge offensive slump having only produced 18 runs in their L/9 games . and are hitting .118 (9-for-76) with runners in scoring position during that stretch. Meanwhile, Shields the Royals steady starter for this tilt is 4-1 over his last five starts and is currently in top form. Recently he shutout Detroit on three hits over seven innings and also shut down Boston allowing them just two earned runs over seven innings . Shields is 1-1 in four starts against the White Sox this season, but has held Chicago to one run or less in three of those appearances. The Under is 8-0 in White Sox last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter The Under is also 5-1 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Everything points to this being a low scoring tilt. Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Under is 11-1 in umpire Cuzzis last 12 games behind home plate.

Will Rogers

Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under

I'm not sure what happened to Jeff Locke his last time out for the Pirates, but it was an ugly result giving up eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings as the team lost 15-5 to Arizona. His numbers for the year remain solid though and with both Pittsburgh and San Francisco struggling to consistently score runs, I like tonight's game to go Under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Weak Offenses - Both teams scored only one run yesterday, each obviously losing. The Pirates, even though they are in first place and have one of the best records in MLB, are not a strong team at the plate. In fact, they average only 3.9 runs/game, which is 23rd in all of baseball. The Giants are even worse at 27th, averaging just 3.8 runs/game. San Francisco scored just four runs total in its three game series with Boston.

2. Pitching Matchup - Even with the rough outing his last time out, Locke still has a 2.90 ERA on the season. He's actually been better on the road with a 1.81 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 12 starts. Meanwhile, the Giants' Matt Cain comes in with a solid 3.00 ERA his last three starts and in 10 career starts vs. Pittsburgh, his ERA is 2.79.

3. X-Factor - Five of the last six times these teams have met in San Francisco, the Under has cashed.