Doug Upstone
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals
On Thursday, PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the White Sox, a below average AL hitting team (batting average .265 or less) against a good AL starting pitcher (James Shields, 8-8, 3.19 ERA) with an ERA of 3.50 or lower, with a starting pitcher (Jose Quintana 7-4, 3.66) whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season. In the past five years, this baseball system is 102-28, 78.5 percent.
Vegas Sports Informer
New England / Detroit Under 46
A big total posted on this Thursday night matchup between the New England Patriots traveling to the Detroit Lions. Last week the Lions scored only 6 points against the Cleveland Browns, and the only bright spot I saw on the Lions was their defense. Detroit gave up only 14 points after the first quarter, so their backups played hard, and I see them playing hard again. The Patriots need to improve on their defense as they gave up 21 points to the Buccaneers last week, so look for the Patriots to improve on their "D" Thursday night. Again, I'm shocked to see this total so high as I know the starters are playing more in Week 3 but, really, posting the total at 46 is a bit shocking. Take the under in this one.
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MONTREAL +8½ over B.C. LionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions would be the obvious choice for most bettors because they are considered to be vastly superior to the Als and Montreal is a banged up squad. However, the Lions are not in a good spot at all. They’re coming off a huge, hard-fought game against the Stampeders on Saturday and will now travel on four days rest. That’s not a favorable situation to be spotting road points in. The Lions squeaked out a rather fortunate four-point win last week but once again, they looked out of sorts on many of their drives. Also note that Lions' quarterback Travis Lulay hasn't broken the 300-yard passing plateau in any game this year and that the Al’s defense really did a good job against what was considered an explosive Saskatchewan offense last week in Saskatchewan.
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It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Alouettes here. Anthony Calvillo is out. Josh Neiswander is in to make his first CFL start. Trouble is, Calvillo wasn't the only Alouette injured. Also going down were receiver Brandon London (concussion), linebackers Bryn Roy (knee), Jonathan Beaulieu-Richard (ankle) and Kyries Hebert (knee), long-snapper Martin Bedard (shoulder), tackle Josh Bourke (knee) and safety Mike Edem (shoulder). Earlier this month, veteran receiver Jamel Richardson suffered a season-ending knee injury. London, Hebert, Bedard and Bryn won't play versus B.C. Neither will running back Brandon Whitaker, who continues to recover from a separated shoulder. The Alouettes are ranked last in total offensive yards, passing and fumbles lost, tied for last in interceptions and are second-last in points scored. This is hardly an ideal situation for a young quarterback to come into. And that's not taking into consideration facing a veteran Lions' defense that's tops in the CFL in fewest yards allowed and second overall in fewest points allowed. All those numbers stand out and give plenty of reason to back the favorite but the oddsmakers have the same information as we do and then some and they rarely put out a soft number. This is truly a buy low opportunity on the Als, who probably haven’t been a 8½-point home dog in 15 years or thereabouts.
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Let’s also not forget that back in Week 5, the Lions traveled east to face Toronto and got blown out by another first time back-up QB by the name of Zach Collaros. Collaros completed 21-of-25 passes for 253 yards and three TDs in a 38-12 romp over these same Lions. Prior to defeating the Stamps last week, B.C was at home to the lowly Blue Bombers and won by just seven points. The Lions biggest margin of victory has been by 14 points and that came in a rain storm versus the Eskimos. They’ve not been sharp the entire season and they have had four days to prepare for a QB they’ve never seen after a hugely emotional win last week. And it’s not like Neiswander doesn’t have credentials. He’s been on the Al’s sidelines for two years learning the game from the best QB in CFL history. He left Angelo State as the most prolific passer in school history, having established 18 single-season and career passing records for the Rams. He passed for 8,212 yards and 61 touchdowns, 27 in his senior season. He passed for 2,983 yards as a senior. In his final collegiate game, against Central Oklahoma, he threw for 391 yards and five touchdowns. He passed for more than 300 yards eight times in his career. Even more impressive is the fact he earned a Master’s Degree in business administration at the same time, taking his graduate classes at night, following football practice. So Neiswander has the discipline and determination to succeed. He also has a full game minus one quarter under his belt and will use that learning experience here. So yeah, on paper and considering the Als injuries, the Lions look like an easy winner but this guest has not been an easy winner the entire year. Furthermore, the Als are looking better with each passing quarter since they made a coaching change and got back to playing Montreal Alouettes football. They may surprise some folks tonight and grab a victory or at the very least, keep it scary close.
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Big Kat Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Take: St. Louis Cardinals -145
The St. Louis Cardinals will look to bounce back from a three game sweep at the hands of the Braves in late July when the two teams start a 4 game series tonight in St. Louis. Joe Kelly has been lights out for the Cards in his 8 starts this season after coming out of the pen to start the year. He has posted a 4-0 record with a 1.57 over his last six outings. The Braves will counter with Paul Maholm, who has just been average this season, going 9-9 with a 4.42 ERA in 20 starts. He was awful in July before going on the DL, going 0-3 with an ERA over 10. RH hitters hit the lefty well and if he can’t locate his pitches, he could be in for a long night. Pair that with the fact that Atlanta will be a bit shorthanded with Jason Heyward being put on the DL yesterday with a broken jaw and Justin Upton possibly out for a third straight game with a bad back. Look for the Cards to roll tonight in St. Louis.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals as pretty sizable dogs on the money line.
Strangely, the White Sox have waited way too long to finally start stringing wins together.
I remember when they took three straight from the Yankees back in early August and I thought it was a mirage.
They've kept on trucking through their opponents and have now won five straight and 11 of 16 since a 10-game losing streak, but the season was over long ago. They are simply playing out a string of games to end the season and prepare for 2014.
The Royals, on the other hand, are heading in the opposite direction, having dropped four straight and seven of nine after appearing they might challenge for at least a shot for the second Wild Card spot.
James Shields (8-8, 3.19 ERA) hopes to help stop the bleeding for the Royals today, but the problem with him is that no matter how good he's been, he's not getting any run support (3.61 runs per game).
Chicago counters with Jose Quintana (7-4, 3.66 ERA)... one of their better pitchers.
In his last outing vs. Kansas City, Quintana allowed two runs over seven innings of work in a 3-0 loss to Shields.
2♦ WHITE SOX
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Yankees on the run line over the Blue Jays.
New York has just owned Toronto.
12 straight home wins over the Jays after last night's 4-2 victory.
21-2 overall run in the Bronx against Toronto too!
The Yankees are gunning for the 4 game sweep today, and Andy Pettitte takes the hill against J.A. Happ.
Pettitte is on a 3-1 run versus Toronto with a 3.13 ERA his last 5 starts versus this division-rival.
Happ has looked good in his 2 starts back after getting hit by a comebacker, but with Toronto just totally snakebitten when playing the Yankees, I have to back New York on the Run Line this afternoon.
Yankees feeling as if they not only have a shot at a wild card spot, but could also win this division.
Take the Yanks on the Run Line.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Thursday will be to play the Patriots and the Lions to hold Under the total in their preseason game from Ford Field.
True, New England has played a pair of Overs thus far in the month of August, but both of those Overs came when the Patriots held joint team practices with the opposition - Philadelphia Week One, Tampa Bay Week Two - that is not the case this evening, and the total set for this contest is way too high for a preseason affair.
The Lions only managed to score 6 points in their 24-6 loss in last week's preseason game, and while they may get a few more tonight, I do not think it is going to be enough to help combine to get this game Over the total.
With the starters going a little deeper tonight, expect the points to be a little harder to come by.
Patriots-Lions Under the total.
2♦ NEW ENGLAND-DETROIT UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the St. Louis Cardinals minus the money against the Atlanta Braves.
I'm not going to go long with this analysis, as I'm simply putting this on St. Louis starter Joe Kelly, who out of nowhere, has become the Cardinals' best pitcher lately. The young right-hander has been holding it down for the National League Central division leaders, and hasn't been scored upon in three of his last five starts. Also, the Cardinals have won six of the seven starts he's made since becoming a permanent rotation member.
I want you listing JUST Kelly, as I think he'll dominate the Braves and justify the oddsmakers making him such a big favorite over the National League East leaders.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in this game I want you listing Matt Cain ONLY.
I know we're facing a Pirates team I've been a huge advocate of this season, but we're talking about Cain, who is coming in after throwing his fifth consecutive quality start. And I have to admit it, the right-hander has looked more like a staff ace during the second half, as opposed to a rough first half. He has a 2.25 ERA in his past five starts (nine earned runs in 36 innings) since July 26.
He should have no trouble outdueling Jeff Locke, the young left-hander who has seen a reverse trend than Cain, struggling in the second half. The left-hander's opponents' batting average has gone from .196 to .233 while his ERA has gone from 2.11 to 2.90 in that stretch, spanning six starts.
Take the Giants, and list Cain only though, cause I don't really care who goes for the Bucs.
1♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals -165
At 64-61 on the season, the Kansas City Royals need a big finish to make a run at the AL Central Title and AL Wild Card spots. That motivation, coupled with the edge they have on the mound tonight, allows me to feel confident laying this juice on the Royals.
James Shields gets the ball looking to build on an impressive season thus far. The right-hander has been the clear ace of the Royals' staff, going 8-8 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.265 WHIP over 26 starts. He'll be up against Jose Quintana, who is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA this year.
Shields has been absolutely dominant in four starts against the White Sox in 2013. He has gone 1-1 with a 1.73 ERA in those four starts, allowing just five earned runs over 26 innings. Quintana is 0-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six career starts against Kansas City.
The White Sox are 13-38 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-7 in Quintana's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 12-3 in Shields' last 15 starts overall. The Royals are 9-1 in Shields' last 10 starts as a favorite. Bet Kansas City Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox +157
The White Sox, winners of five in a row, are a solid value play against a Kansas City club that has lost four straight and seven of nine. Chicago's Quintana has been very reliable on the road where he's 3-0 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 starts. Kansas City's Shields' has been at his worst at home where he's 2-5 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 starts. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Look for them to pull off the series sweep against the struggling Royals.
Dave Price
White Sox/Royals Under 7.5
Each of the first two games of this series have come in under the number, and that should come as no surprise. These two have finished under the total in 21 of their last 27 meetings overall and nine of their last 12 in Kansas City. We have seen six total runs scored or less four of the last five times Shields has faced the White Sox as he's limited them to two earned runs or fewer in four of those starts. We have also seen seven total runs or less scored four of the last five times Quintana has faced the Royals as he's limited them to two earned runs or less in four of those starts. Take the Under.
Joe Duffy
Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Carolina Panthers +3
Joe Duffy’s Picks has been obliterating the bookmakers since our scorephone days. Another great MLB season is in full swing with select underdogs continue to make you and me substantial takings.
Regular season college football is just one week away, but now we start out the best week of preseason, week 3, which most emulates regular season, with our Preseason Game of the Year on the Patriots-Lions. But first a free pick on the Carolina Panthers (+3) to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens Joe Flacco is pretty consistent: legendary postseason quarterback, average regular season, poor preseason QB. Without his two tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson who are injured, he has been atrocious this exhibition season. In three quarters this preseason (eight total drives), the Ravens’ starting offense has produced one touchdown, two turnovers (both interceptions) and three three-and-outs.
They have no No. 2 WR. Literally every player fighting to start along Torrey Smith has failed miserably so far.
Add that to the fact a rebuilt defense minus middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed is also highly questionable, the Ravens may be the most overrated team in the NFL.
Their 2-0 straight up record is deceptive. Going against undefeated preseason teams in virtual pick (+/- three points of pick) is 53-27.
With Carolina stating how important it is to start the season much better than last year’s terrible start, strong finish and the Ravens off a Super Bowl win and with a misleading 2-0 preseason mark, the Panthers will certainly have a larger sense of urgency.
Take Carolina and the points.
Vegas Connection
Rockies at Phillies
Pick: Over
Colorado sends out Bettis who has been hit and hit hard 21 hits in 18 inns. Phillies have won 2 of the first 3 in the series 4-3 5-4 and Col won 5-3. Kendrick Over is 8-1-1 in Kendricks last 10 starts vs. Colorado.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT -2 over New England: Interesting to note here: Week 3 is supposed to be the dress rehearsal. The week that teams play their starters the most, yet the Pats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games during week 3 of the preseason. Hmmm. lets throw in the fact that teams want to beat the Pats, not matter what game it is and the fact that Detroit really played lousy last week and I feel we have a good recipe for a Lions win here.