Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday August, 23

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

It's not often we find ourselves making a case to play on Barry Zito but consider tonight an exception. For openers, Zito has dominated the Braves in his MLB career, going 5-1 all-time in his career team starts, including 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA the last five. On the flip side, Tommy Hanson has had trouble finding the plate of late, issuing 16 walks in his last four starts. With Hanson just 3-6 in his last nine August team starts, look for Zito to continue his winning ways in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Chris Elliott

Arizona vs. Tennessee
Pick: Over

The Cardinals will have a massive void to fill at left tackle as 2007 first round pick (5th overall) Levi Brown is likely out for the season due to a torn triceps. Brown is a beast at 6ft6 and 324 pounds. The 28 year old Brown was a 2 time All Big Ten in 2005 and 2006.

Skelton will get the start at QB in this game after Kolb started the last. The two QBs are in a battle for the number one spot with Skelton looking to be in the drivers seat. In Kolb`s last start against Oakland, Raiders DT Tommy Kelly accused Kolb of running around looking scared out on the field. Skelton was solid behind center vs. Oakland going 3-3 for 23 yards and a TD in limited snaps.

Beanie Wells is probable to play in this game however he has been unreliable recently with injury issues. Look for Ryan Williams to lead the ground game after running for 25 yards on 5 carries against Oakland. Early Doucet will sit out at WR with a back injury.

The Cards have a talented defensive front led by the likes of Dan Williams and Darnell Docket. Calais Campbell, Ronald Talley and David Carter. Free safety Kerry Rhodes is Arizona’s best DB. Backups James Sanders, Greg Toler and AJ Jefferson should see playing time in this game. Linebackers Daryl Washington and Paris Lenon were the top two tacklers last season unfortunately for Arizona, neither are expected to play in this game with minor injuries. O`Brien Schofield will not play as well resulting in a thin Cardinal Linebacker crew to battle the Titans. Look for Stewart Bradley and Reggie Walker to pick up the slack for the Cards.

For the Titans, 2011 first round pick (8th overall) Jake Locker has been named the opening day starter over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. Tennessee has to feel good with their QB situation right now as both pivots are reliable behind center and offer the team solid depth at the postion. Locker is expected to start in this game and see 40 to 50 reps. There is no QB controversy in town as Hasselbeck has accepted the back up roll and is looking to help Locker where possible with growing into an elite QB.

Chris Johnson is an elite RB in the league and he proved that once again last time out against the Raiders with 10 rushes for 46 yards and 2 TDs. Darius Reynaud looked awesome against the Raiders as well, rushing for an impressive 75 yards on 7 carries. Javon Ringer and Jamie Harper are projected to back up Johnson on the season and should get plenty of looks as well in this game.

Nate Washington looks to be the number 1 receiver in Tennessee with all the issues surrounding talented WR Kenny Britt. Kendall Wright has looked good in camp and will be penciled in as a starter if Britt is unable to go at the start of the season. Jared Cook is projected to have a breakout year at TE.

On defence for the Titans Cornerback Jason McCourty is back after leading the team in tackles last season, followed closely by strong safety Jordan Babineaux. Up front Tennessee will look to improve their run defence this season after finishing 24th a year ago. Defensive ends Kamerion Wimbley and a hopefully healthy Derrick Morgan should provide more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Starting safety Jordan Babineaux is questionable for Thursday's game with a shoulder injury.

Look for Skelton to come out strong in this game and establish himself as the clear number 1 QB in Arizona. Larry Fitzgerald is a top 5 receiver in the game, look for him to break down a Titans secondary that will be thin with Babineaux limited at best. For Tennessee, Locker and Hasselbeck will likely see 90% of the snaps as we inch closer to the start of the season. The strong Titans run game should open up the downfield for the speedy young Titans receivers. Look for a blowout in this game as I expect both offenses to shine. Take the "Over" to win!

David Chan

Arizona vs. Tennessee
Pick: Over

The Cards are in Tennessee on Thursday night. Week 3 is considered the dress rehearsal for the regular season, and as a result I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between these two non-conference combatants.

Arizona lost the Hall of Fame game 17-10 at New Orleans.

It would lose 27-17 in Week 1 of the preseason at Kansas City.

The Cardinals finally put it all together in their third game of the year with a 31-27 victory at home over Oakland.

The HOF game went "under" the number, but the Card's next two soared over the posted total.

QB John Skelton gets the nod as the starter here, meaning that he's almost certain to be under center in the regular season opener. Skelton was unbelievably efficient in his limited time vs. the Raiders, going 3 for 3 with a TD.

Kevin Kolb though will still get a chance to play with the starting lineup, and is obviously fighting for his career right now.

The Titans are 1-1 so far in the preseason, losing 27-17 at Seattle in Week 1, and then crushing the Buccanneers in Tampa Bay 30-7 last week.

The Game 1 total soared above the number; the Game 2 total stayed below the posted number by a .5 point.

The QB controversy is over in Tennessee, as the Titans have named Jake Locker as their starter.

Locker was just 4 of 11 for 21 yards and an INT vs. the Bucs, but will have plenty of time to try to pick apart the Cards suspect secondary in front of the home town crowd tonight.

Ultimately though, I expect these two teams to open up the playbook, and look for the defenses to take a back seat to a high-scoring shootout; consider a second look at the "over" in this one!

Jim Feist

Blue Jays vs Tigers
Pick: Over

A pair of strong offenses meet as Toronto heads to Comerica Park to play the Tigers. Justin Verlander is an ace but the Blue Jays have battered him in his career, with a 5.18 ERA against them in 40 innings. The Detroit offense will score, however, off the banged up Toronto staff that goes with J.A. Happ (9-10, 4.88 ERA). He has a 5.06 ERA his last three starts. The over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8 home games and 6-2 over the total in their last eight against the American League East. Play the Jays/Tigers over the total.

Scott Spreitzer

Reds at Phillies
Play: Under

Johnny Cueto takes the mound for the Reds tonight, putting up great road numbers on the season. He's pitched extremely well over most of his last eight starts, overall, and the Reds have made it count, allowing just 2.5 rpg to the eight opponents. The team enters this one on an 8-1 Under run when Cueto throws on just four days rest. The Phillies will counter with red-hot Cole Hamels. The Philly righty has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 25 2/3 innings of work (three starts) and he's been virtually untouchable against the Reds. Hamels owns a 1.44 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a .164 BAA in nine career starts against Cincinnati. The Phillies enter this one on a 5-0 Under run with Hamels on the mound. And finally, for what it's worth, Cory Blaser is the expected home plate umpire in this one. The total is 8-1-1 to the Under the last 10 times he's called balls and strikes. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Reds & Phillies on Thursday.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Los Angeles Angels

We won with the Angels last night and we will come back with them tonight as the pitching matchup is again in their favor. Every game is big for Los Angeles as it trails the Rangers by 8.5 games in the American League West and while that is likely dead, the Angels are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card with four teams in front meaning wins are all that counts. The Angels improved to 9-0 in their last eight games against teams with a losing record. The Red Sox season is pretty much in the books as they are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card and it would take a record finish to get back into that. They have dropped six of their last eight games and while most of those were on the road, playing at home has not been on walk in the park as Boston is 2-8 in its last 10 games at Fenway Park. C.J. Wilson started the season as the second ace the Angels were hoping for but it has been a struggle for a while now. Over his last nine starts, he has put up three duds but at the same time, he has tossed five quality outings over that stretch but the problem is that the Angels are 1-8 in those nine starts including losses in five straight. That is actually in our favor here as we catch a better number going contrarian and in five career starts against Boston, Wilson is 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA. He will be opposed by Franklin Morales who has had some good and bad starts this season and he is coming off a couple of the latter. He allowed eight runs in 10.2 innings in those two games and was hurt by allowing five home runs. In 29.2 innings at home this season, Morales has a 5.16 ERA and 1.52 WHIP and the Angels offense should again be able to be very productive at the plate.

Sean Murphy

Jacksonville vs. Baltimore
Pick: Jacksonville

The Ravens have never been a team that lays all of its cards on the table in the preseason, certainly not under the guidance of head coach John Harbaugh.

That hasn't changed this preseason, as Baltimore has split its first two contests, not surprisingly winning in the underdog role in its opener in Atlanta before losing handily as a favorite at home against Detroit last week.

There's no real sense of urgency in Ravens camp right now. They've been one of the winningest teams in football over the years, and will be in the mix as a Super Bowl contender again this season. While this is 'dress rehearsal' week, this game means little to Baltimore in the grand scheme of things.

The same can't be said for the Jaguars. They're a franchise in transition, and in need of any sort of positive spark to carry into the regular season. They've got exactly that through two games, rallying to defeat both the Giants and Saints.

All indications are that first-year head coach Mike Mularkey will play his starters for the better part of the first three quarters tonight, and that in itself should give them a significant edge, with the Ravens expected to play their first units for the first half only.

The Jags have displayed a well-balanced offense, and an agressive, attacking defense in their first two games - two keys to success here in the preseason. Starting QB Blaine Gabbert appears to be progressing nicely in his second NFL campaign, and we're seeing a bit of a battle developing for the backup job, with Chad Henne and Jordan Palmer fighting it out. While Maurice Jones-Drew remains a no-show, Rashad Jennings has done a terrific job in his place, running for over five yards per carry. The defense has given up its share of points, but it has also made plenty of big plays, and has shown a knack for coming up big in crunch time.

Last year we saw the Ravens pull out a narrow 34-31 win in their Week 3 'dress rehearsal' against the Redskins. In fact, they've won by more than four points in their third preseason game only once in the last six years. Look for that trend to continue against a feisty Jaguars squad tonight.

Tom Freese

Houston Astros vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

The 67-56 Cardinals are at Home in St Louis for game 3 of their 3 Game series with the 39-85 Astros on Thursday. 1-5 Keuchel gets the call for Houston while 12-9 Westbrook gets the nod for St Louis. Keuchel tosses his first pitch with an ERA of 4.99 giving up 32 earned runs in 57.7 innings of work while allowing 28 walks with 25 K's. On the flip side of the coin, Westbrook starts his Day off with an ERA of 3.50 giving up 60 earned runs in 154.3 innings pitched allowing 41 walks with 95 K's. The Astros are 10-42 in their last 52 Road Games against Right handed Starters and 9-42 in their last 51 Road Games. Also, 8-45 in their last 53 games as an Underdog. The Cardinals are 19-7 in their last 26 Home games and 8-1 in their last 9 Home games against Left Handed Starters. *Keuchel's last 3 Road games = 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA* Westbrook and the Cards win this game very easily today!

Dave Cokin

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Neither of these teams is treating the pre-season with much urgency, as they're both 2011 playoff teams more focused on the games that will count. I see more energy from the home team here, so I'll give the edge to the Bengals.

JR O'Donnell

TB Rays -110

The Oakland A's (66-56 & 28-29 road) visit the TB Rays (68-55 & 34-28 home) at 7:05 PM EST tonight in a game that has two second place teams in their respective divisions. A's 4.5 games out in the AL West and the Rays 3.5 games behind in the AL East. Oakland sends out Tyson Ross (2-8. 6.35 ERA & 1.75 WHIP) to the mound, and he has been bad all year, but horrid at late. In the last "5" starts he has averaged less than "5" innings, surrendered "20" earned runs, "5" homers and walked "16" while striking out "18"! Oh, and did I say he went 0-4 for that stretch. TB counters with Alex Cobb (7-8, 4.74 ERA & 1.35 WHIP), whose last start was bad, but previous to it he had four straight mound appearances when he got to the "7th" inning or more. He is 3-1 in those last four, and had a 1.79 ERA for the last three before the last debacle. Rays are 50-35 vs RHP and hold opponents to 3.4 r/g at home, and the A's are the 2nd lowest scoring team in the NL.

Dave Essler

Cardinals / Titans Under 42.5

Lost in all the discussion about the QB battle(s) on both teams, obviously one of which has been resolved, is the fact that both of these teams have well above-average defenses. Yes, I do like Jake Locker but now there's a bit more pressure on him and he's going to face an actual "scheme" of sorts from Arizona. I expect the Titans to win this game, late if not early, since they'll have a clear advantage at QB late, but having the very key number of 42 covered, my money is on the under. Add to that the replacement referee's that have called an inordinate number of drive-killing penalties, this one stays under the number.

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +3 +100 over TENNESSEE

Titans coach Mike Munchak chose upside over experience when he announced on Monday that Jake Locker would be the starter to open the year. Locker attempted only 66 passes as a rookie reserve and last week in a 30-7 loss to Tampa Bay, he completed just four of his 11 throws for a mere 21 yards and was intercepted once while directing the offense for nearly all of the first half. Locker is learning. He may turn out to be decent. However, he completed only 55% of his passes as a senior at Washington and in his brief NFL career, that percentage is even lower. Now that he has the starting job locked up, the goal tonight will be to get comfortable taking snaps and getting rid of the ball in a timely manner.

Arizona’s starting QB job is still up for grabs. That’s a good thing heading into this game, as both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton will see significant playing time. Skelton will start and likely play into the second quarter. Kevin Kolb will then take over, reversing the order of appearance in last week's game against the Raiders. It's not the only position Ken Whisenhunt and his staff will be evaluating Thursday, as starting left tackle Levi Brown could be out for the season after suffering a torn triceps tendon last week against the Raiders. D.J. Young will start at left tackle. D'Anthony Batiste will start at right tackle then move to the left side before starters leave the game. With so many jobs up for grabs, including QB, one has to trust that the Cardinals will have more players fighting hard to solidify their positions than the Titans.

These pre-season games mean nothing. The Titans are pretty much set to open the season while the Cardinals are not. Expect to see more real time NFL plays from the visitor while the Titans will reveal very little. That scenario prompts us to take anything being offered here.

SPORTS WAGERS

BOSTON +100 over L.A. Angels

The Angels have lost eight of C.J. Wilson’s last nine starts. Among the final scores in that group of losses were 10-8, 10-4 and 15-9. Wilson has given up home runs in five straight games and overall, he’s walked 72 batters in 159 frames. Wilson is a reliever turned starter. After five years of pitching in relief, Wilson has thrown 204, 223 and 159 innings over the past three years. Fatigue is setting in big time and while he’s shown that he can be a very effective arm, the arrow is currently pointing down.

Franklin Morales has been one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox’s pitching this year, as he's taken his skills to new levels. His walks are down, his strikeouts are up and the result is the best numbers of his career. Morales has pitched well, both as a starter or reliever and he’s currently being used as both. Given how well he's pitched and the state of Boston's rotation, it should be just a matter of time before he's getting a regular turn. We’ll buy now while the price is still low.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Angels -107

The Angels went into their current series with the Red Sox riding a 4-game losing streak, but have got back on track with back-to-back wins over Boston. Los Angeles is clearly playing with a purpose in this series, and I fully expect them to finish off the sweep with another win tonight.

The Angels have the clear advantage on the mound in this one, as they send out C.J. Wilson against Franklin Morales.

While Wilson has struggled a bit of late, this is a perfect spot for him to get back on track. He is a respectable 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA on the road this season, but that's not the kicker. Wilson is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox. His team has won each of those five starts.

Morales has been up and down since joining the rotation. In 8 starts, he is 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA. He enters into this game off back-to-back poor showings, giving up 3 runs in 5.3 innings vs Cleveland and 5 runs in 5.3 innings vs NY Yankees.

Los Angeles is 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record, while the Red Sox are just 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.