Chuck O'Brien
I guess I should have rolled with the Seattle Mariners yesterday, right? Oh well, what's done is done, and I lost with the Detroit Tigers on the Run Line. Today the Tigers are going to get it done for me, as they're my free play today against the Toronto Blue Jays. I know it's a steep $3 price on the Tigers, and even sort of steep in laying $1.45 with the run line, but I'm rolling with the streaking Tigers.
Manager Jim Leyland's boys remain two games behind the American League Central-leading Chicago White Sox, and are still very much in the mix for a wild-card spot, sitting one game back of Tampa Bay and Oakland. And these are the types of games the Tigers need to take advantage of, while making their late-season run.
I really think they have a good chance in handing the ball to Justin Verlander, who is in after holding the Orioles to three runs on six hits through six innings. Verlander, I think, is a bit overdue for a dominating showing, and this is a good day to do so. The Jays have lost four straight and now have to play a matinee game to close this series. The momentum is in the Tigers' favor.
Even though left-hander J.A. Happ is 2-1 in his last three starts, his 5.06 ERA leads me to believe he will be hit hard in this game, and could be gon by the fourth inning.
Take the Tigers on the run line.
4♦ DETROIT -1.5
Matt Rivers
Last night I gave you a free play winner on the Reds.
Tonight's free play comes in the NFL, as Jacksonville and Baltimore put up enough points to take their game Over the posted total.
This preseason has been a high-scoring one for the Jaguars, as week one against the Giants saw a 32-31 final and an easy Over. Last week in their game at New Orleans it was a 27-24 Over.
Tonight they make it 3-for-3 in the Over column, as the points continue to pile up.
Baltimore won a 31-17 week one practice game in Atlanta to open their preseason, and last week's home game versus the Lions missed the Over by a hook, as the 27-12 loss the Ravens absorbed saw 39 1/2-points listed as the over/under.
This week is normally the week the starters get their longest looks, and even without Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield, I still like the Jags to be able to find the end-zone with regularity as Blaine Gabbert has actually looked like he may be making strides for the season to come. Hey, it is only "practice", but Gabbert has thrown three TD passes against no picks this summer.
Looking at a total of about 41-points, and I am easily seeing these teams combine for six touchdowns and the Over in Charm City tonight.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE-BALTIMORE OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie may seem obvious, but it will be a winner, and that is to play the Reds and Phillies to conclude their four game set with an Under.
Two of the first three games in this series have played Over the total, but last night's game was a tight 3-2 Under, and tonight's game will also be an Under.
Two of the premiere pitchers in the senior circuit this season, John Cueto and Cole Hamels will toe the slab, and I doubt the runs will be piling up.
John Cueto sports a 2.44 ERA for the year, and an even lower 1.96 ERA over his last 23 innings pitched. Two of his last three starts have ended up playing Under the posted price, and 10 of his last 13 starts overall have also played Low.
As for Cole Hamels, his season ERA stands at 2.94 for the season, and he brings a 3-0 run with a 1.05 ERA for his last three starts into this home contest this Thursday night. Each of Hamels' last five starts have ended up going Under the total, as have eight of his last ten starts overall.
The runs were hard to come by last night, and they will be hard to come by again tonight.
Pitchers dominate this one, Reds-Phillies Under the total as Cueto and Hamels duel late into the night tonight with plenty of goose eggs on the board.
1♦ CINCINNATI-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Chris Jordan
This has to be a big year for the Green Bay Packers, after watching the New York Giants stroll through the NFC en route to another Super Bowl title last season. There are several question marks with this team, coming into this season. And I think they somewhat or another must be answered tonight, in the most pivotal week of the exhibition schedule.
First and foremost, how will this defense respond after being the NFL's worst statistically in 2011? General Manager Ted Thompson spent his first six draft picks this spring, looking to upgrade his stop-unit. My eyes will be on first-round OLB Nick Perry tonight, and how he'll be able to assist Clay Matthews III, who had a career-low six sacks last season. I expect to see better leadership and inspired play by Charles Woodson, who must ignite his secondary unit.
The next issue that needs to be addressed has to be the runnin game, specifically with newly signed Cedric Benson in the backfield, and whether or not he can have an immediate impact and be the balancing act to counter James Starks' inconsistency and Alex Green's inexperience. And it's not that Green Bay needs a dominating rushing attack, but one that can compliment MVP Aaron Rodgers' aerial game would be nice. I'll be interested to see what Benson can do for the Packers.
There are always going to be more issues with teams, but those are my biggest ones for tonight, and I'm betting with the oddsmakers, who have installed the Packers as the cheap chalk. I think we see an all-around good game from Green Bay in this one.
2♦ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Wunderdog
Colorado at New York Mets
Pick: Colorado Rockies +140
The New York Mets were hanging around the playoffs picture, but have really become an unmotivated, ugly-looking team. This is a team that was a healthy seven games over .500 and has now gone 11-28 in their last 39 games to fall out of the playoffs chase at 10 games under .500. The offense has now gone stagnant and has not produced more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. The Rockies have won 8 of their last 10 games, including the first three in this series. Six of those eight wins have come as a dog, where they are also 6-0 in their last six as an underdog. The Mets have been lost at home where they are 5-18 in their last 23 and also an ugly 1-11 in their last 12 as a favorite. The Rockies have owned The Big Apple with seven straight wins here. Play on Colorado.
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta (71-53) beat the Nationals in Washington last night by a 5-1 score last night and they have then won 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Braves have also won 4 straight road games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. They send out Hanson who is 12-5 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. Hanson has been more effective on the road this year given his 3.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .242 opponent's batting average. Atlanta has won a decisive 15 of their last 18 road games with Hanson facing a team with a winning record. The Braves have also won 6 straight games with Hanson pitching as a favorite. In fact, not only has Atlanta won in Hanson's last five starts, but they have also brought home the victory in 11 of his last 12 outings. San Francisco (69-55) counters with Barry Zito who is 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. But over his last five starts, the veteran left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.37 ERA. The Giants have lost 5 of their last 7 home games with Zito on the mound. And San Fran has lost 4 straight home games as an underdog. Take Atlanta with the money line in this one.
Tony Stoffo
Reds vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7
Cincinnati at Philadelphia With Johnny Cueto matching up with Cole Hamels here makes for a solid release on the under - as all the money, trends, and bio analysis all points towards a lower scoring game in this spot. First off Cueto continues to shine as in his last 3 starts he has allowed just 5 runs and 12 hits in 23 innings pitched while striking out 20. While id there is one team that Hamels dominates it's sure the Reds as he has a 6-0 record against them with a 1.26 ERA and 0.837 WHIP. so add this all up and you can definitely see how the Under this posted total is the way to go here this evening. Under is 5-0 in Cuetos last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 8-1 in Cuetos last 9 starts with 4 days of rest. Under is 8-1 in Cuetos last 9 road starts. Under is 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 starts overall. Under is 6-1 in Hamels' last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Under is 20-5-1 in Hamels' last 26 starts vs. National League Central. Umpire trend - Under is 8-1-1 in Blaser's last 10 games behind home plate.
Andre Gomes
Blue Jays / Tigers Under 7.5
The Tigers are coming from a game where they had problems in putting a struggling LH pitcher in trouble, where they had just 5 hits and 3 runs. Now they will face another LH pitcher, but in much better form than Laffey. Happ won his last two starts and he is coming from a great performance against Texas, where he limited the Rangers to just one run and two hits, while striking out eight batters in six innings. In three starts for Toronto, he faced Texas, the Yankees and Tampa Bay, allowing just 1, 4 and 4 runs in the process! If we count his bullpen games, Happ just had a FIP higher than 4 once in his last 7 appearances! With Detroit being just #14 against LHP, I believe Happ will have another great performance today.
On the other hand, Detroit will start their ace Verlander today, in a game where he allowed three runs and six hits, while walking four batters. This wasn't a great outing for him and he had to throw 116 pitches in just six innings. However, Verlander has a good spot for today and Toronto's offense has been missing in action. They are also lacking patience by being #28 in the league in BB% in August with just 5.0%, while they are also the #3 worst team in the league in K% with 22.8%. These two stats combined show me that Verlander will crush the Blue Jays batters today, especially when they are just hitting .165 BA and .541 OPS against him.
With Verlander absolutely dominating Toronto today, while Happ should also have another good performance today, I believe this early game will be a low scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Braves -116
The San Francisco Giants are coming off a 3-game sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After winning three straight games over their biggest rivals, this is a big letdown spot for the Giants.
The Atlanta Braves clearly have the edge on the mound tonight with Tommy Hanson over Barry Zito. Hanson has been on his game of late, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.78 ERA in 12 road starts this year as well.
Zito is 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 24 starts this season. The left-hander has posted a 5.62 ERA over his last three outings. Hanson is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.
The Braves are 15-3 in Hanson's last 18 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 10-1 in his last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, 7-0 in his last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Atlanta Thursday.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -173
Fading the A's with Tyson Ross on the mound. The Athletics are 1-5 in Ross' last 6 starts, 1-5 in his last 6 road starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the American League East and 0-7 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 4-0 in Alex Cobb's last 4 starts. They have also won their last 6 series openers. Bet Tampa Bay.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -145
The Astros have lost 6 in a row, and each of those 6 defeats have come by at least 2 runs. They are just 1-7 in Dallas Keuchel's last 8 starts, and 6 of those losses came by 2 runs or more. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 5-1 in Jake Westbrook's last 6 starts, and each of those 5 victories came by at least 2 runs. The Cards have also won Westbrook's last 3 starts against the Astros with those 3 wins coming by 2 runs or more. St. Louis have won 4 straight versus Houston, and the last 3 wins have all been by at least 2 runs. Take the Cards on the run line.
Joe Gavazzi
Arizona / Tennessee Over 41
Each of these teams is in good offensive form. With the Cards putting up 48 pts. in a pair of high scoring games, that total 58 and 44 points. Tennessee has been solid offensively as well scoring 47 points including 30 last week at Tampa Bay. With quality reserve QBs in Kolb (Arizona) and Hasselbeck (Tennessee) seeing meaningful second half playing time, it should be flying footballs on ESPN tonight. Last week, the OVER was 13-2-1 vs. the opening line. The average game score was 44.6 PPG the highest in recent memory for week 2 of preseason play.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta -116 over SAN FRANCISCO
Melky who? The Giants have taken the league by storm since Cabrera was suspended for testing positive for testosterone. The Giants lead the majors in runs scored in August and they’re coming off a three-game sweep in Los Angeles. The Giants/Dodgers rivalry is to the NL what Yanks/Red Sox is to the AL. Not only are the Giants in tough here, they’re also in a letdown spot with Barry Zito on the hill.
The Giants are 3-0 in Zito’s last three starts, which is more proof of just how misleading W/L records truly are. Zito gave up four runs in four innings in San Diego in his last start but the offense bailed him out with an 8-7 victory. Two starts back, the offense rallied again for a 9-6 win over Colorado at AT&T. Zito’s last three homes starts resulted in a 9-6 Giants win and a pair of losses by scores of 10-0 and 9-1. Zito allowed 15 runs over 15 innings in that trio. If Zito wasn’t being paid 19M this year, he wouldn’t be anywhere near the hill.
The Braves were defeated by the Giants 9-0 in Atlanta the last time Zito faced them and they’ll use that embarrassing loss for extra motivation here. Tommy Hanson is 2-0 with 2.70 ERA over his past three starts. He’s 8-2 on the road with a 3.78 ERA. Current Giant hitters have 10 hits in 62 AB’s against him for a BA of .161. Still, it would not matter which pitcher was going for the Braves, as this one is all about fading Zito and not having to lay a big price to do so.