Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 25,2011

BIG AL

Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

Two lefthanders go to the hill in Toronto tonight as Toronto's Brett Cecil faces off against KC's Jeff Francis, but these are two southpaws apparently headed in different directions. Cecil has pitched very well lately, but a lack of run support has him without a victory for the month of August. In his last three starts, Cecil has a 3.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with nothing to show for it as he is 0-2 during that time and over his past nine starts, Cecil has seven quality outings and a record of just 3-3. In those starts, Cecil has faced some pretty good teams, including the Red Sox, Angels, Rays, and Rangers - twice and that will obviously not be the case tonight against the hapless Royals. Francis on the other hand, has been mostly awful lately with an 8.62 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his last three starts and not surprisingly he is 0-3 during this time. It's also not surprising that Francis' overall record on the season is a dismal 4-14 and for the month of August, Francis has allowed a whopping 36 hits in only 20 2/3 innings in his four starts so far. Toronto has dominated this series at home recently, taking 21 of the last 28 meetings at the Rogers Centre. Take the Jays.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals

Arizona is 3,000 miles from home, crossing several time zones, and goes with 24-year old Wade Miley (11.25 ERA). Miley allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks over four innings against the Braves to take the loss in his MLB debut Saturday. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington starter John Lannan (3.61 ERA) has been solid all year and is 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA against Arizona. The Nationals are 5-2 in Lannan's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 in his last 10 home starts. Play the Nationals!

EZWINNERS

San Francisco Giants -235

The San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong has thrived at AT&T Park this season where he is 6-2 with an ERA of just 1.82. Vogelsong has had a great season and is biding to become the first Giants pitcher to lead the National League in ERA since Jason Schmidt in 2003. I like Vogelsong's chances to pitch up the win against a struggling Astros team. Houston is by far the worst team in Major League Baseball and they will be sending AAA pitcher Henry Sosa to the mound to make this start on three days rest. Sosa is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.35 since being called up by the Astros and the Giants got a look at Sosa just four days ago in Houston. Sosa pitched five innings against the Giants on Sunday and gave up for runs as San Francisco batted around in the second inning of that game. I like the Giants to provide Vogelsong with the run support that he needs, and its usually not much, to get the win in the opening game of this series. The Astros have won just eight out of the last twenty eight games played between these two teams by the bay, and I don't look for them to have any success in this game. Play on San Francisco.

Tom Freese

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals

Even though they beat Milwaukee 2-0 yesterday, the Pirates are still struggling. They are 3-15 following a game where only two combined runs or less were scored. They've lost 19 of 26 games and going back to last year have some terrible road numbers. They are 28-67 in road night games and are just 36-96 as a road underdog of +150 or more. They are 5-10 L15 games at St. Louis and the Cardinals are going to be an angry bunch after getting swept by the Dodgers. Edwin Jackson has a 2.72 ERA at home this season. Pirates starter Charlie Morton has a 6-20 TSR as an underdog of +100 to +150.

Vegas Experts

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

This looks like a very good spot to lay the price with the Blue Jays at home vs. Kansas City. The Royals picked up a rare road win last night and start Jeff Francis, who has an 8.62 ERA his last three starts. His last two have been really bad with 11 runs and 21 hits allowed in just 8.7 IP. KC has a 15-37 record as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 price range. Francis has a 2-13 team start record in that same price range. Toronto is averaging 5.4 runs per game vs. southpaws. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 2-15 this year on the road vs. lefties. Look for Brett Cecil to shut KC down.

David Banks

Pirates / Cardinals Under

The St. Louis Cardinals are running out of time to once again become relevant within the NL Central, but it can do so by getting off to a good start in Game 1 of their four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday night; first pitch from Busch Stadium will air live on the MLB Network at 8:15 ET.

If you take a look at the standings all the way back on July 18th of 2011, you’d find manager Clint Hurdle’s Buccos atop the NL Central by half a game over both the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh was 50-44 on that day and up a boatload of money for its wagering supporters. Fast forward to the current time and you’ll find the Pirates sitting at 60-68 for the season and a whopping 16.5-games in back of the Brew Crew for the top spot in the division. PIT’s pitching was only able to take it so far, as the hitting has been poor all season long evidenced by its 3.84 RPG average (#27) and .245 team batting average (#25).

St. Louis is more than likely fighting an uphill battle it will just never get the best of, but that hasn’t stopped the Redbirds from ripping the cover off the ball. The trio of Albert Pujols, Matt Holiday and Lance Berkman have slugged their way to earning the Cards top 5 ranks in both batting average (.270) and OPS (.759). Their 4.65 RPG average is good for the 6th best mark in the league and the 130 HRs launched is good for #11. Unfortunately, the sticking spot for the Cardinals has been the pitching as they rank middle of the road in both ERA (3.87) & WHIP (1.32) and have only managed 66 overall quality starts (#20).

These teams most recently locked horns at beautiful PNC Park at the beginning of last week with the Buccos taking two of the three contests; the ‘over’ just came up short of cashing in all three games (2-1). For the year, Pittsburgh holds a 5-4 overall advantage with the ‘under’ holding a slim 5-4 tally; all three of the teams 2011 Busch meetings combined to go ‘under’ the closing number. St. Louis has taken nine of the L/12 meetings between these division rivals in the Show Me State but dropped two of three in early April.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Atlanta -114 over CHICAGO: The Braves are 20-9 in their last 29 games vs the NL Central and 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs a right-handed starter. The Braves lost a tough one last night as they fell 3-2 to the Cubs, who got a solid outing from Randy Wells. Well I think they will get it back today. Brandon Beachy has pitched very well for the Braves as he comes in 6-2 with a 3.32 ERA overall and 3-0 with a 2.07 ERA with an 0.99 WHIP in his last 5 starts. Very nice numbers. He will be facing a Chicago team that is hitting just .226 and scoring 2.4 rpg in their last 5 games. Matt Garza has also pitched very well as he comes in with a 3.62 ERA, despite a 6-9 record. He is just 4-4 at home, but with a solid 2.61 ERA. He just hasn't been given good run support (3.79 rpg). The braves offense hasn't been that good of late as they have averaged just 3.6 rpg and have hit just .234 in their last 10 games, but they have scored 5/.6 rpg in Brandon's last 5 starts and 4.67 rpg in his road starts this year. Atlnata does come in at 8-2 in their last 10 games and as you can see it's not really due to their offense, but their pitching has been dominant as they have a 1.78 team ERA over that stretch. They need to keep winning as they build momentum for the playoffs so look for them to bounce back today with a solid win. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Cubs are 4-24 since August of 2009 at home off a win in which they scored more than 2 runs and their opponent left fewer than 14 men on base.

3 UNIT PLAYS

TORONTO -1.5 (+120) over Kansas City: I had the same play yesterday and I was wrong, but I will come right back with it here. Yes Brett Cecil is 2-0 vs the Rangers, but 2-6 vs the rest of the league. He comes in pitching very well with a 3.86 ERA and an 0.95 WHIP in his last 3 starts, despite an 0-2 record. Jeff Francis has not pitched well this year as he is 4-14 with a 4.89 ERA overall and 2-8 with a 5.79 ERA on the road. He's struggled even more lately as he comes in at 0-3 with an 8.62 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Even more troubling for Francis is his day start stats over the last 3 year, as he is just 3-11 with a 4.98 ERA in his last 21 day starts, and this year he has gone 0-9 with 5.57 ERA in his team day starts, with the Jays being outscored by 2.88 rpg in the process. Toronto like to hit lefties at home as they have hit .266 and have scored 5.41 runs per 9 innings, while the Royals have struggles vs southpaws on the road, hitting .254 and scoring just 3.74 runs per 9 off of them. Let's also note that the Royals are 4-16 vs the RL since 2004 in the last game of a series if they are off a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 2 or more runs. The Jays clearly have the pitching advantage and the hitting advantage vs lefties, so I look for an easy 2+ run win here.

NY YANKS -1.5 (+105) over Oakland: The yanks couldn't get swept at home by the A's, could they? I don't think so. After a rough start to his year, Phil Hughes is starting to looke like the guy that posted 18 wins last year. In his last 3 starts he has gone 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and an 0.66 WHIP. In his last 5 team the wins the Yanks are 5-0 vs the RL and have out scored their opponents by a count of 42-19. Holy Crap. Phil is also 2-0 in three starts vs the A's despite a 5.40 ERA, with the Yanks going 3-0 vs the RL in those starts. For Rich Harden he is 2-2 on the road this year and actually won here (4-3) last month, so I expect the Yanks to look for payback. Rich though hasn't fared well overall vs the Yanks going 2-3 with a 5.00 ERA in 8 star5ts vs them, including a 1-2 mark with a 5.29 ERA in 3 starts in NY. In his 4 team losses vs them he is 0-4 vs the RL. Lets also note that the Yanks are 34-8 in day games this year and have outscored their opponents by a 229-139 count in those games. The Yanks are 30-8 vs the RL when they win at home this year and they have been swept just twice at home this year (both by Boston), plus they reall can't afford these losses or the Sox will just walk away with the division., so I look for a focused yanks team to get the job done today.

2 UNIT PLAY

Tampa Bay/ Detroit Under 7.5: The Under is 9-1 in Detroit's last 11 games as a dog, while the Under is 55-20-3 in the Rays last 78 as a home favorite. Doug Fister has struggled with his record this year, but he still has a 3.49 ERA overall and a 3.98 ERA on the road, despite a 1-7 record. He has been given better run support as a member of the Tigers but he is still getting just 2.84 rpg overall this year and 2.46 rpg (3.5 as a Tiger) on the road this year. His starts have averaged 6.68 rpg overall and 7 rpg at home. Jeremy Hellickson has a 3.04 Era overall and a 2.40 ERA at home. 9 of his 10 home starts have gone under the total with an average of just 5.7 rpg being scored. The offense have been decent of late, but I feel that pitching will win out here.

Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals -165

The Cardinals have not been playing all that great since they got buried in the NL Central, but I really like their chances of pulling out a win against the Pirates on Thursday. St Louis is 10-5 against Pittsburgh at home over the last three seasons, and are going up against a starter that they have had some solid success against in the past.

The Pirates will send out Charlie Morton, who has pitched effectively this season with a 9-6 record and 3.42 ERA. However, Morton is just 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.920 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals, who are definitely looking for a starting pitcher to let out their frustrations on. Pittsburgh is just 7-22 in Mortons last 29 starts as a road underdog.

The Pirates are 3-22 in road games after having lost 18 or more of their last 25 games over the last 2 seasons and 3-15 after a game with a combined score of 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. While it isn't a greatly important trend, St Louis is 16-5 in their last 21 Thursday games.

Jack Jones

Royals/Blue Jays OVER 9

I'm siding with the OVER in this game Thursday between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays. Two below-average starters go at it tonight in Jeff Francis and Brett Cecil. Francis has struggled on the road, while Cecil has been owned at home.

Francis is 2-8 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. The lefty is 0-3 with an 8.62 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last three starts, yielding 15 earned runs and 30 base runners in 15 2/3 innings. Cecil is 1-4 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in seven home starts this year.

The OVER is 5-0 in Cecil's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The OVER is 5-2 in Blue Jays last 7 home games. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Blue Jays last 7 Thursday games. The OVER is 7-3 in Royals last 10 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +128 over WASHINGTON

The D-Backs have won two straight and that changes everything. They scored four times last night but had eight hits and two walks and a few opportunities to score more. The Snakes are coming back to life and the additions of Aaron Hill and John MacDonald are good one’s indeed. MacDonald is not good with the glove, he’s incredible and Aaron Hill could get hot at any time at the plate. The D-Backs infield is now three former teammates in Toronto, Lyle Overbay, Hill and MacDonald and instantly there is a comfort level. Miley began '11 in Double-A before his promotion to Triple-A in early July. The former supplemental first round pick in '08 lacks a high ceiling, but he flashes three solid- average offerings that give him the potential to become a mid-rotation starter. He generally pitches off his 88-95 mph sinker and efficiently mixes in a slider, curveball, and changeup. Because of the movement on his fastball, batters hit a high number of groundballs against him. Miley may not have a plus pitch to project to a high K rate, but his three main pitches are effective. He and the D-Backs are a significant pooch here because Miley was somewhat ineffective in his first major-league start against the Braves. However, he struck out five in four frames and posted a xERA of 3.72, which is dramatically lower than his actual posted ERA of 11.25. John Lannan scares nobody. Lannan has been absolutely dominant against LH batters, however, his numbers nosedive against righties and the D-Backs are loaded with righties. He does not have a strikeout pitch against right-handers and his xERA against right-handed batters is 6.82. That’s a number that should not be ignored and on their worst day the D-Backs have a great shot to win their third straight. Definite overlay. Play: Arizona +128 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +201 over N.Y. YANKEES

The A’s may not win here because not many sweep in New York but one also can’t overlook the big overlay here. Phil Hughes is 1-2 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 7.66. He recently pitched a game in New York against the A's and was knocked around for nine hits and seven runs in 4.1 frames and that’s with a 12-run lead after three innings. The next game out he was whacked again by the light-hitting M’s but got away with leaving a bunch of guys on base and allowing just two runs on nine hits in six innings. Rich Harden has a 3.33 ERA with an outstanding strikeout rate over his last five starts. Harden can blow up at any time and he’s a bit of a risk because he’s simply not the same Rich Harden of years gone by. However, Phil Hughes does not deserve this billing and it’s also worth noting that the A’s have the second best OPS in the league since the all-star break. They could score a bunch more today. Play: Oakland +201 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit +160 over TAMPA BAY

1:05 PM EST. Jeremy Hellickson does not have the skills to support his nice surface stats. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher because he’s not. He has a ton of upside but he still has a lot of learning to do and there are going to be growing pains along the way. Hellickson has an awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 32%/21%/47% and that means some balls are going to leave the yard against him in the final five weeks of the year. He also has an average strikeout rate (95 k’s in 142 IP) and he has not struck out twice as many batters as he’s walked (51). Those numbers in no way support a 3.04 ERA and his xERA of 4.36 is a more accurate account of how he’s pitched thus far. Doug Fister has been consistently good all year. He has outstanding command, a good strikeout rate, a groundball bias profile and a good ERA and xERA. Tigers can hit, Rays cannot and this is undoubtedly another overlay. Play: Detroit +160 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +158 over ST. LOUIS

The genius has now lost four in a row and eight of 10. They just got swept by the Dodgers at Busch and they’re pretty much just going through the motions right now, as most players don’t even want to look at Tony LaRussa and Mark McGwire, let alone play hard for them. You can tell when a team is just going through the motions when they start ignoring the little things like backing up throws, missing cutoff men, not hustling down first on routine grounders and the Cards are guilty of them all right now. Charlie Morton is among the best in the league in inducing groundballs, as his 60% groundballs will attest to. Morton has trouble with lefties but the Cards are completely stacked with right-handed bats. Edwin Jackson is good but he also has to be dialed in to succeed. We’ve seen this guy lose focus on so many occasions and with the current state of mind of his teammates, he just might implode here. The Pirates continue to play hard and that alone makes them a much better play taking back a big tag than the Cards are laying a big one. Play: Pittsburgh +158 (Risking 2 units).

CINCINNATI –2 over Carolina

These two just might be the worst in the game this season and both will be hard-pressed to win three games all year. The Panthers already won a preseason game, as they beat the Giants in their home opener while the Bengals are 0-2. Cinci will play its home opener here and losing is not an option. The Bengals have to show the fans something to keep them interested otherwise they will not come out. Preseason games mean absolutely jack to most but this is actually a crucial game for Cinci after they were blown out in two previous preseason games. They have been outscored 61-10 in the two preseason games. They’ve also turned the ball over six times. They haven’t lost, they’ve been embarrassed and now, even before the season begins, the media is all over them. In June, ESPN The Magazine ranked the Bengals as the worst professional franchise of the four major sports in North America. Two weeks ago, ESPN’s NFL writers had them last in their preseason rankings. And yesterday, in Scouts Inc.’s rankings of the Top 200 Players, the Bengals have an NFL low one player as left tackle Andrew Whitworth comes in at No. 85. These things can’t be sitting well with the team and they’ll use it for motivation, especially the Scout Inc’s ranking that says they’re a bunch of nobodies. Forget about who is playing and for how long. It does not matter. The Bengals need this one badly to get them kick-started and it’s not like they’re playing a powerhouse. Carolina might actually be worse than the Bengals and they come into this third preseason game with a lengthy injury list. Carolina’s only goal is to get healthy. Play: Cincinnati –2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Cleveland +7 over PHILADELPHIA

The NFL and its teams and players are under the microscope from the first day of training camp right up to the final snap of the Super Bowl. The media and fans can’t get enough of this stuff and locally every sports talk show on radio is talking football 24/7. Perhaps no team is getting more coverage than the Eagles. Already they’ve been coined the “team to beat” and the betting public pays attention. The media has influence on the line and when you wager on immensely popular teams you’re going to pay a premium to do so, even in the preseason. What we know for sure is that Andy Reid couldn’t give a rats ass about preseason or the negative press the Eagles received after a poor showing versus the Steelers. What we also know is that the Browns are looking pretty sharp these days, especially on offense in which they’ve scored 55 points in two preseason games against the Packers and Lions. Cleveland will play Colt McCoy for at least a half and perhaps into the third quarter. Mcoy has struck for five TD’s on nine preseason possessions and this Eagles defensive line is a serious work in progress. Look for Seneca Wallace to close it out. For the Eagles, the starters will play almost three full quarters and that includes Michael Vick. Big deal. Vick threw three picks in four possessions last week. He also threw six interceptions in the Eagles last five regular-season games and he’s not likely to be running with the ball in the preseason. Vince Young will play the final quarter and there’s also a chance Mike Kafka will get some playing time. For the Eagles, this game has nothing to do with a win or loss. Again Andy Reid couldn’t care less. It’s a chance for Vick to make the right reads and be crisper on his passes and for the linebackers to improve dramatically. For the Brownies, they’re looking forward to playing Vick and the Eagles and they’ll show up, just like they’ve done in every preseason snap thus far. Play: Cleveland +7 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves lost a tough one last night which snapped their six-game winning streak but I expect them to get it back this afternoon. Brandon Beachy takes the hill as he has been as solid as they come. He has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP through 19 starts and on the road, his ERA drops to 3.27 while his WHIP remains nearly the same at 1.17. Of his nine road starts, seven have been quality outings including two of his last three. The Braves are 4-1 in his last five starts as a favorite.

The Cubs counter with Matt Garza who has been pitching a lot better after a tough start to the season. His ERA has dropped to 3.62 through 24 starts but he is still not getting many wins as he is just 6-9 on the season. Poor run support is to blame as the Cubs are just 2-4 in his last six home starts and they have averaged a mere 2.3 rpg in those contests. These two pitchers met in Atlanta 11 days ago and the Cubs came away victorious but Beachy put together the better start only to see the normally solid bullpen take the loss. 3* Atlanta Braves

Charlie Scott

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Carolina Panthers +3

I'll take a shot with Carolina here for a couple of reasons. First and foremost is betting against bad teams as Favorites and the Bengals are definitely a bad team. Next keep in mind that this is Carolina Head Coach Rivera's first time as a Head Coach and he has stated that he wants to win in the Preseason and is treating Tonight as a dress rehearsal for the regular season and has installed a gameplan for Tonight's game. The Bengals have No game plan tonight except to try and avoid injuries with a team that has little depth to start. Nothing Finer than a Carolina Cover !

Ultimate Sport Picks

Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -7

The self-proclaimed "Dream Team" takes the field again tonight for the first time since the Steelers dismantled them. A lot of people are quick to jump off the band wagon from this team after the ugly loss. I on the other hand think there is nothing better that could of happened to the Eagles than to get slapped back down to earth. Tonight you should see a refocused and redeticated team. The Eagles still have all the talent in the world and should be eager to prove it. The Browns have looked good behind Colt McCoy (4 touchdown passes- 0 interceptions) so far this preseason, But tonight they run into the wrong team. The Browns may be able to hang around and possibly make it interesting, but the Eagles team speed and home field advantage will be too much for them. Take the Eagles to win by a touchdown or more. This would be a good game to buy down from 7 to 6.5.

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals fit a 27-7 system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs at -140 or higher if the total is 8 or less and they scored 4 or less runs, with our opponent cones in off a win and had 1 or less error. The Cardinals have won 10 of the last 15 here at home vs the Pirates and 15 of the last 22 as a home favorite in this range. C. Morton goes for the Pirates and he has a mediocre 6.21 era vs the Cardinals. For St. Louis its E. Jackson and he is 2-0 at home vs the Pirates. Look for the Cardinals to break their losing streak in game one of the series tonight.