Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -1.5 -104
The Giants don't score a lot of runs, but they are still showing value on the run line with Vogelsong on the hill. He's 6-2 (8-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.90 at home this season. His last 4 home wins have all come by at least 2 runs. Henry Sosa has made 3 starts for the Astros. He's 0-2 (0-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 6.35 in those outings. Houston has lost 2 of the 3 by 2 runs or more. The Giants have won 5 of their last 6 at home against the Astros, and those wins have come by an average score of 6.0 to 2.0. It's also worth noting that Houston is 1-15 in road games in the 2nd half of the season this season vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game. It is losing to these clubs by an average of 2.7 runs. Take the Giants on the run line.
Info Plays
3* Washington Redskins
--SYSTEMS IN PLAY--
*Washington is 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
*Washington is 16-7 in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
*Washington is 7-1 in Lannan's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
*Arizona is 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Teddy Covers
Astros @ Giants
PICK: Giants -1.5
Astros rookie hurler Henry Sosa has been bouncing around the minors since 2006, not exactly a ‘hot prospect’. Since coming to Houston before the trade deadline, Sosa threw three starts at AA and one at AAA, after spending the first part of the season working out of the bullpen. Here in the big leagues, Sosa has allowed four runs in each of his first three starts, including a mediocre (at best) outing against this same Giants lineup last weekend. A second look short turnaround for the Giants against Sosa isn’t likely to help his chances of victory tonight, especially with Carlos Beltran starting to hit.
To make matters even worse for Houston, Sosa is going on three days rest in an effort for Houston to protect their prized prospect (Jordan Lyles) at the expense of their journeyman minor leaguer. Expect a short, nasty and brutish outing from Sosa here. The Astros suspect bullpen behind him is in particularly lousy shape tonight after spending the week getting lit up by the Rockies. After yesterday’s soul crushing extra inning defeat – losing on two walks and two wild pitches in the tenth -- this is not a good spot for this disheartened underdog.
Ryan Vogelsong has been dominant on this field all year: 6-2 with a 1.82 ERA. Each of his last six wins have come by multiple runs; and five of those wins have come by three runs or more. He threw seven innings of four hit ball against Houston last weekend, primed for another shutdown effort here. San Fran’s bullpen behind him – even without closer Brian Wilson – is still in excellent shape to finish the game following Tim Lincecum’s gem against the Padres last night. Take the Giants Run Line.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
5* graded play on the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Texas rangers set to start at 8:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game and take three of the four games of this series. Boston has won two straight while the Yankees flounder at home losing tow to the As. Boston now has a one game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees and both teams will make the playoffs. In the AL West, the Rangers lead has shrunk to just 2 1/2 games with Anaheim winning six straight games. The Angels have a far easier schedule than the Texas Rangers over the last 32 games. Both teams have feasted on sub-500 teams this season with Texas posting a 39-21 mark and the Angels a 36-26 mark. Against winning record teams both the Rangers and Angels have posted similar records. The Angels will play only 13 games of the remaining 32 games against winning record teams. Six of those 13 games will be head-to-head against Texas with a three game series beginning this weekend in Arlington and then a three game set at home to close out the season September 26-28. Moreover, this is nine fewer games facing winning record teams than Texas will face. I think that the Texas team is beginning to feel the pressure of this situation and it is negatively effecting their play. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-13 making 22.9 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 after two straight wins by six runs or more against an opponent after a loss by 8 runs or more. Boston is an excellent situation for a win noting they are 23-6 making 17.4 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game this season; 22-7 making 13.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing teams whose hitters draw three walks or less per game in the second half of this season. Both teams rank very high offensively in the majors this season, but Boston has a significant advantage with their bullpen. Boston ranks first in all four of the major offensive categories with 694 runs scored, a .279 team batting average, a .349 on-base-percentage, and a .455 slugging-percentage. Texas trails Boston modestly ranking third with 662 runs scored, second with a .276 team batting average, and fifth with a .333 on-base-percentage, and third with a .444 slugging-percentage. Overall pitching stats are comparable, but as the data shows Boston has a superior bullpen. Boston ranks 16th with a staff ERA of 3.89, 25th with 64 quality starts, ninth with a 1.26 WHIP, and fifth with a .243 opponent batting average. Texas ranks 15th with a staff ERA of 3.84, fourth with 80 quality starts, 11th with a 1.27 WHIP, and 10th with a .248 opponent batting average. Boston ranks eighth in the majors with a 3.44 ERA while Texas ranks 25th with a 4.20 ERA. It will be the Texas bullpen that will be the downfall of this team and allow Anaheim to keep closing the gap in the AL West. For this game take the Boston Red Sox.
Derek Wynne
Eagles -7
After getting a major ass kicking to the Steelers last week, the Eagles need to bounce back big. With that in mind, a source has informed me Vince Young's job as backup QB is in jeopardy because he is failing to learn the Eagles system while Kaftka is making great strides each week and knows the system like the back of his hand. With this in mind, you can expect both QBS to be at the top of their games tonight. The Browns have been extremely conservative this week in getting ready for the Eagles with numerous player injuries, they are practically expecting to lose this game.
Panthers/Bengals: Under 34
Cam Newton is expected to play 3 quarters tonight in the game, this is going to prove what he is worth. As many bettors are pounding the over against a shaky Bengals Defense in the preaseason I am not. The Bengals de Antwan Odom suffered a gun shot wound in a home invasion two days ago and the franchise is fired up and ready to prove they can play defense. This is going to be a tough defensive battle tonight and will look like a regular season game.
Redskins/Ravens: Over 33.5
Loving the over in this game, the Redskins have been praising QBS Beck and Grossman for their preseason performances, Shanahan has been taking Beck and Grossman out to dinners to show his appreciation. Now tonight they will get a true defensive test which in my opinion will result in two ways. They throw good and score or they throw bad and the Ravens get quick pick 6's. The Ravens will also test their running game tonight with the addition of their new tackle McKinnie. I feel confident about the over, bet this as a much lighter bet in comparison between my first two picks.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Carolina +2.5 over CINCINNATI: during the off season Cam Newton had some workouts and unofficial practice time with Steve Smith, plus they have been working together on their own after practices of late. Steve Smith missed the first 2 games, but he is back in the fold now and eager to go. Neither offense has been great this year, but the edge has to go to Cam and Jimmy over Dalton and Co. The other advantage that Carolina has had is that Derek Anderson (who has played in this offense) has been mentoring the two young signal callers. Both Cam and Jimmy say that he has been a big help. Neither defense has played well this preseason so far, but again I have to give the Edge to Carolina as they come in allowing just 15 ppg, compared to the 30.5 ppg the Bungals have allowed. Neither team will be great this year, but right now the Panthers are way ahead of Cincy and they should get the outright win here.
Washington/ Baltimore Under 33.5: The Skins defense has been tough in the their first 2 games as they have allowed just 5 ppg and 168 ypg so far. Defense has been a focal point for this team after having a rough showing last year, that saw them allow 24 ppg and 389 ypg. The offense hasn't been good for the Skins in the early going as neither Beck no Grossman seem to be the answer and they will be going up a tough and rejuvenated Baltimore defense that has allowed just 13 ppg so far. Last week Baltimore put up 33 points on KC, but that's misleading as they were held in check til the last 3 minutes or some before getting a couple cheap TD's. Let's also note that the under is 7-17 since 1993 when the Skins take on an AFC North opponent, while the Under is 14-36 in Baltimore's games vs the NFC. I don't see Much more than 28 Points in this one.
Philadelphia/ Cleveland over 40: The Over is 7-3 in the Eagles last 10 games vs the AFC, while the over is 8-1 in Cleveland's last 10 preseason games overall and 6-1 in their 7 preseason games with an OU line of 35.5 to 42. It's week 3 in the preseason (The dress rehearsal) so it's time for this Eagles offense to wake up as they have put up just 327 ypg and 13.5 ppg thus far. They should get it going vs a Cleveland defense that that has not been good so far, allowing 374 ypg and 23.5 ppg. That defense could also bee weaker as both starting safties (Ward & Young) and starting LB Chris Cocong will be out for this one. The Cleveland offense also has some injury problems, but they have still put up 27.5 ppg and will be going up against an Eagle defense that has allowed just 15 ppg, but 358 ypg so far. The Eagles. Vick had a horrible game last week and I look for him to bounce back strong, while the Browns should be good for at least 17 in this one. Easy Over here.