Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 26, 2010

Marc Lawrence
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Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Houston Astros
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The Astros wrap up a four-game visit to Philadelphia this afternoon when they send Wandy Rodriguez to the mound against Kyle Kendrick. Rodriguez enters this contest with five walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. He also owns a super-sharp 1.04 ERA in his last six starting efforts. With Kendrick sporting a 6.38 ERA in his last three starts, look for the him to fall to 0-2 in his career team starts against the Astros here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.

Frank Jordan
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Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins
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Both pitchers in this match up have multiple starts against the other team Anibal Sanchez, for Florida is 1-1 against the Mets and Jonathon Niese, of New York, is 1-2 against the Marlins. Look for these two pitchers to throw their best games of the year against the opposing team with the Marlins pulling off a late rally against the bullpen of the Mets. Play Florida

Tony Stoffo
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St. Louis Rams vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -7.5
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You rarely see a line this big in the preseason, However with A.J. Feeley out this week, Sam Bradford, and Keith Null will be getting the majority of the snaps against the Patriots. This sure doesn't fair well for the Rams as Bradford, and Null were a combined 9-28 for 70 yards last week against the Browns. Plus throw in the fact that the last time the Patriots played a dress rehearsal game at home they won 41-0 and I can see another blowout win on tap for this evening especially against a shorthanded Rams squad coming off of a short week of preparation.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays fit a nice system that plays on certain homers off a home dog win vs an opponent off a home favored loss at -140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. Detroit saw their 5 game win streak go up in flames yesterday in extra innings to KC. Tonight they have M.Scherzer on the hill. While he has been better of late,he is still just 2-10 with a 4.67 era on the road this year. Toronto counter with lefty Romero tonight. Romero has a solid 2.62 home era and went 6 innings allowing just 2 runs against Detroit in his only start here vs the Tigers. Toronto is 7-3 as a home favorite in this range and Detroit is 11-26 on Artificial turf including 0-4 this year.

BIG AL
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Marlins @ Mets
PICK: Over 7.5
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It seems like it's a case of one step forward, one step backward for the Mets right now. That may actually be an improvement over what we were seeing from this team in the beginning of the month when it was more like one step forward and three or four steps backward. At least they have shown a game or two recently where they can score more than two runs. In the Pittsburgh series, they actually scored 12 runs in the first two games but then reverted back to the anemic Mets in the third game of the series. And they did a bit of the same in the second game of this series after scoring six in the opener. Tonight they are sending a lefthander to the mound in Jon Niese and while that may seem like a good thing based on Niese's last outing, it could actually prove to be a bit of a problem against the Marlins, who are currently the second-best hitting team vs. southpaws in the National League, ahead of the Cardinals, Reds, and Phillies in that category. If there's some good news for the Mets (other than the fact that they can actually send more than two runs across the plate lately), it's that they will be facing righthander Anibal Sanchez, who has had his troubles against this team in the past. Sanchez is just 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight career starts against New York. While the Mets lost yet another game on Wednesday night, at least they made it interesting scoring a fourth run in the bottom of the ninth before finally going down. The team is showing signs of life, even if it's too late in the season to really help them much. Take the 'over.'

Scott Rickenbach
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St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
PICK: St. Louis Rams +7.5
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The first line we saw on this game was a 6.5 and the line then moved up to a 7.5 as of Monday afternoon. We see big dog line value here as a result. After losing by 21 points in week one of the preseason, the Rams bounced back with an outright win as an underdog at Cleveland in week two. As for this big line, it's simply over-inflated because the Patriots have won each of their first two preseason games and scored 55 points in the process! Note that the Rams have only lost two of their last ten preseason games by more than 7 points! As for the Patriots, their 18 point win in week two was just the 2nd time in their last ten preseason games that they've won a game by a margin of more than 3 points! Yes, the starters play more in week three but, for preseason action, this line is still overinflated and we'll grab the big points. Consider a small play on the Rams plus the points on Thursday night.

Matt Fargo

Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Oakland Athletics

The Indians continue their rough season as they are now 26 games under .500 for the year including nine games under .500 at home. Cleveland is finding it very hard to score runs right now and I don’t see that changing Thursday. The Indians, losers of five straight games, have scored more than one run only once over this span and have plated a total of just four runs over this five-game stretch. Going back further, Cleveland is 3-13 over its last 16 games, scoring three runs or fewer 10 times.

Oakland had a successful homestand prior to this roadtrip and it is continuing right where it left off. The pitching has been outstanding and coupled with the Indians inability to score, it sets up another great spot at a reasonable price. The A’s have allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of their last 21 games and they have allowed no more than five runs in any game over that span. This has improved the team ERA to 3.48 which is the best in the American League.

To no surprise, Oakland has the starting pitching advantage again Thursday.

The A’s go with Vin Mazzaro and he has been spot on for a while now. He has tossed four straight quality outings as well as quality performances in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. His ERA over this 11-game stretch is an outstanding 2.76. On the road this season he has a 3.88 ERA which is only that high because of one bad game and six of those eight road starts have been quality versions.

He allowed one run in 7.1 innings in Cleveland in his lone start against the Indians this year.

He is opposed by Justin Masterson who is having a very tough time this season. He has a 5.33 ERA on the year and of his 25 starts, only nine have been quality outings. To no surprise, Cleveland is just 8-17 in those games. He has pitched much better at home but he still is not getting the wins despite decent run support. That run support will diminish here and in two career starts against the A’s, he is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. Masterson is 3-10 in 17 nighttime starts on the season.

Cleveland is 1-11 in Masterson’s 12 starts in the second half of the season over the last two years against American League teams with a batting average of .265 or worse while also going 4-16 in his 20 starts with a moneyline between +125 and -125. 3* Oakland A’s

Jim Feist

Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: Under 9

Chicago is a good pitcher's park and a pair of weak offensive teams meet. The White Sox are in the middle of the pack in the AL in on base percentage, while the Orioles are 12th, plus second to last in runs scored. So you are more likely to see a pitcher's duel. Jake Arrieta of the Orioles has a respectable ERA his last three starts (4.34) and Chicago has never faced him. Edwin Jackson of the White Sox has a sizzling 1.35 ERA his last three with 24 strikeouts in 20 innings, just 5 walks. Play the Orioles/White Sox Under the total.

EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -191
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Coming into the 2010 season many people thought that the Cardinal's starting pitcher Chris Carpenter was on the decline. Carpenter has answered those critics and has put together another great season for St. Louis posting a 14-4 record with a 2.88 ERA in twenty seven starts this season. I expect Carpenter to have another outstanding performance in this game against the struggling Nationals. Carpenter has dominated this team in his career posting a 6-1 record with an ERA of 3.30 in eleven starts. The Nationals will give the start to Jordan Zimmermann, who has not pitched in the majors since July 18 of last season as a rookie. Zimmermann is an elite pitching prospect but is coming off Tommy John surgery. We've seen in the past that it takes almost two full years for a pitcher to recover from this surgery and velocity is usually an issue the first year back. I expect the Cardinals to be able to give Carpenter some solid run support as he picks up his fifteenth win of the season. St. Louis is 13-3 in the last sixteen meetings between these two teams and the Cardinals are 9-2 in Carpenter's last eleven road starts against a team with a losing record. Play on St. Louis.

Luke Anthony

Twins vs. Rangers
Play: Under 8

Everything here is pointing to the under on paper. The under is 11-4-1 in the Rangers last 16 home games and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Both these teams are sending out their aces in a important AL battle between Liriano for the Twins and Lee for the Rangers. I think both of these pitchers go deep into this game with one bullpen blowing it in the end. Take the under and watch it hit easily!

Jimmy Moore

Florida @ New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

Niese was very good last time out against Florida giving up only 1 run in 7 innings of work. Also in his last 4 starts he has given up only 1 earned run each game. The Mets are much better at home than on the road, look for them to get the win against the Marlins.

Wunderdog

St. Louis at New England
Pick: St. Louis +7.5

There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Spagnuolo has issues to deal with here as he attempts to change the culture of losing with the Rams. He has a 4-2 mark in the preseason which includes finishing on a winning note a perfect 2-0 in week three and four. Yes, this is the most "real" game of the preseason, with starters typically seeing the most action. But, 7.5 points is a ton in the preseason. Lines above 7 have occured only three times in the past seven years. The ATS record of the dog in those games? 3-0.

Tom Freese
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Marlins at Mets
Play: Under
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Florida starter Anibal Sanchez has allowed 4 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Marlins are 23-11-2 UNDER their last 36 games as road dogs. The Fish are 18-6-2 UNDER in the last 26 road starts made by Sanchez. The Marlins are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 road games. New York starter Jonathan Niese has allowed 4 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Mets are 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games overall and they are 18-7-1 UNDER off a loss. New York is 35-15-2 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 7-3 UNDER when Niese pitches with 4 days of rest.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -116
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Off back-to-back losses to the lowly Pirates, expect the Cards to bounce back strong against the struggling Nats tonight. St. Louis is 13-2 against the Nats over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 2 runs. The Cards will be in good hands with Carpenter, who is 6-1 lifetime with an ERA of 3.30 against Washington. He is also 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA since the All-Star break. With Strasburg going back on the DL, the Cards will get to see Jordan Zimmerman in his first MLB start since Tommy John surgery. I look for the Cards to win this battle, just as they did last season when they hit 3 home runs off of him in a 6-2 win. Take the Cards on the run line.