SPORTS WAGERS
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Houston +1.60 over PHILADELPHIA
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Note the 1:05 PM EST start. Wandy Rodriguez is on fire and the fact that he and the Astros are taking back +1.60 is somewhat ridiculous. Rodriguez has been ace-like since July 1: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP. He also has a 2.99 xERA during this period, so this is no surface stat fluke. He has a wicked curve that could be hugely troublesome for a struggling Philadelphia offense. The Astros have won the first three games of this series and will come into this one completely relaxed with all the pressure in the world on the Phillies. Houston also beat Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels and Roy Halliday and they’ll take a huge step down in class against Kyle Kendrick. Remember, Kendrick was sent down to the minors and was recalled just about a month ago only because Jamie Moyer was put on the DL. He spent almost no time in the minors but if Moyer stayed healthy, Kendrick would still be there. Kendrick had been largely ineffective up to that point with a 4.82 ERA and he’s not been better since. He’s been torched in two of his last three starts with only decent outing over that stretch being in New York against the Mets. Against both the Nats and Dodgers he was ripped apart and overall in four August starts, Kendrick has a BAA of .341. In seven starts at home this year, Kendrick has an ERA of 5.46. The Phillies are seeing BB’s again, Kendrick is a start away from being sent back down and the Phillies are –1.70? Overlay. Play: Houston +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
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WASHINGTON +1.78 over St. Louis
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The Cardinals have dropped seven of its last 10 and that includes series losses to both the Pirates and Cubbies. Good news for Cardinal fan is that Tony LaRussa is not likely coming back. LaRussa actually believes in his own mind that batting the pitcher eighth is working. He really believes he’s smarter than any manager that has ever managed. He’s like a dog owner that feeds his dog human food. Millions and millions of dollars has gone into the research of dog-food and dog-owner thinks that feeding his pooch some bacon and eggs is a good idea. Well, hundreds of thousands of games have been played and there’s a reason why the batter hits ninth. But not to that genius, he has it all figured out. Most of you are likely too young to remember but way back in the early 80’s while managing the A’s, LaRussa went through a stretch where each of his four starters were asked to pitch three innings in every game. It lasted about six weeks and he finally gave in after the A’s were getting creamed every game. Anyway, this really has nothing to do with today’s game but the point is managers will not win many games for a team but they sure can lose a bunch and that’s precisely the case with that whisky-loving manager of the Cards. Chris Carpenter needs no introduction. He’s solid and dependable and could absolutely breeze through this one. However, with the return of Jordan Zimmerman and the chance to play spoiler, perhaps the Nats will show some life here. Washington management announced Monday that Zimmermann, who has spent the season rehabbbing from Tommy John Surgery, is to be activated. Zimmermann has compiled a 1.59 ERA in 10 minor-league appearances spanning 39.2 IP, with a 31/6 K/BB and a .193 batting-average-against (BAA). While he has only a half-season of previous Major League experience, Zimmermann flashed some impressive skills in 2009 prior to his season-ending TJS. The small minor-league sample this season indicates that the impressive 2009 skills (108 BPV, 3.68 xERA) may be virtually intact upon return. Zimmermann is clearly one to watch and with a big take-back against a squad that just lost two straight to the Pirates, the Nats are worth a shot. Play: Washington +1.78 (Risking 2 units).
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Arizona/SAN DIEGO under 7½ +1.02
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The first thing to note here is that this is a day game after a night game which means there’s a strong chance some reserves will get in the lineups. Kevin Correia is considered to be the Padres weak link in the rotation but he’s been the recipient of some bad fortune. Fact is, Corriea has a rock-solid GB/FB ratio of 48%/29% and that’s one of the best splits in the majors. He’s also thrown a shutout in two of his last four starts and has not allowed a single jack in any of his last four starts. Correia is not an "ace." but with a combination of a solid fastball, a hard sinker and a developing changeup, his skills suggest a potentially strong finish and it’s not like he’s facing the Reds. The Snakes are 13-29 on the road vs righties and their inability to hit righties has largely led to that awful record. Ian Kennedy has 15’s K’s in 10 innings and a 2.70 ERA against the Padres this season. When he pitched in San Diego earlier in the year he allowed zero runs on two hits in five full innings. This guy has logged a lot of innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field so a start in San Diego is surely a welcome one. The Padres have had one day off in its last 15 and with a comfortable 6½-game lead, with some reserves likely getting some playing time and with Philly in here tomorrow, the Padres might not be as juiced up as we've been accustomed to. Play: Arizona/San Diego under 7½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Stephen Nover
I am now on a 60-40-1 run with my baseball free picks, after my hot streak continued last night with an easy winner on the Diamondbacks-Padres going 'Over' the total. Tonight I will stick with a total and play the under in the Tigers-Blue Jays matchup.
He doesn't get a whole lot of attention, but quietly Max Scherzer has become one of the best pitchers in the American League.
Scherzer always had talent. Now he has consistency. He has an ERA of 1.72 in his past 12 starts. That impressive ERA gets shortened to 1.35 if you just count Scherzer's last five starts. The hard-throwing righty has given up 27 hits in his last 35 innings during that span.
The Blue Jays are going with Ricky Romero, who is tough at Rogers Centre where he's 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA.
The under has cashed six of the past seven times the Tigers and Blue Jays have met in Toronto.
2♦ DETROIT/TORONTO UNDER
Joel Tyson
Interested in playing the Rams-Patriots contest to go over the posted total this preseason Thursday.
The Rams are still trying to figure out who can best lead them this regular season, and QB's Bradford, Null, Feeley, and Lewis have ALL be seeing playing time through their first 2 games.
St. Louis was able to scratch out 19 points this past Saturday in a 19-17 road win at Cleveland, and with a short work week in front of them, expect the Rams to be vunerable on defense.
New England has been consistent this preseason, scoring 27 and 28 points in winning their first 2 preseason games, and with Tom Brady firmly entrenched as the starting QB, expect Brian Hoyer who has looked good this preseason to get his chance at putting up some numbers on the scoreboard.
Both teams have played overs in both of their preseason games, and I see no reason to buck that trend Thursday night at Gillette Stadium.
Rams-Patriots over the total it is!
4♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Lost a close one on Wednesday when the Twins fell short in Arlington against the Rangers. Tonight, I'm dishing out an easy FREE winner as I go with the Mets at home against the Marlins.
Florida got the narrow victory on Wednesday, but they won’t get it done against Mets’ lefty Jonathon Niese (8-5, 3.33 ERA) who’s been near unhittable lately. So go ahead and pay the small price to go with the Mets behind Niese.
The Mets’ hurler has a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts and he’s allowed one run in four straight outings, five of his last six, six of his last eight and seven of his last 10. Niese has been just fabulous lately, be it at home or on the road. His last home start was August 11 when he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings.
This season, Niese has already faced the Marlins three times and given up a combined six runs in 15 innings. Last time he saw them was June 5 when he allowed one run on six hits over seven innings of a 6-1 victory.
Anibal Sanchez (10-8, 3.16 ERA) is on the mound for the Marlins and he’s struggled against the Mets lately. Florida has lost three of his last four outings against the Mets, including June 4 when he allowed four runs in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 loss.
Florida is just 1-4 in Sanchez’s last five outings against the N.L. East and 1-4 in their last five meetings in the Big Apple. The Mets are on positive streaks of 8-3 at home, 7-3 when Niese is a favorite, 5-2 when he faces a winning team at home and they are 12-4 in their last 16 home games against teams with winning road records.
I’m going with the red-hot Niese and the Mets in this one. Play New York.
3♦ N.Y. METS
Karl Garrett
The Tigers had their 5 game winning streak snapped in extra-inning yesterday afternoon, and now it is back on the road to Canada to face a Toronto team that is feeling pretty good about themselves.
The Blue Jays just won 2 of 3 off of the Yankees to improve to 34-27 on the year at home, and tonight they are playing a team that is 19 games under .500 on the road for the season.
Detroit comes into the Rogers Centre at 20-39 away from home this year, and starter Max Scherzer is just 2-6 on the road this season with a 4.67 road ERA.
His counterpart Ricky Romero is a solid 5-2 at home with a home ERA of 2.63.
This will be the first meeting of the season between the teams at Toronto, and last year, the Jays won 3 of the 4 meetings played in their ball park against Detroit.
Long weekend series starts with a Toronto win over Detroit.
3♦ TORONTO
BRETT ATKINS
Jumped back on the winning track with a free play on the Cubs Wednesday as they beat up the Nationals, improving my run to 8-1 with my last nine freebies. Tonight, I'm on the gridiron with a comp winner coming on the Colts as they are getting points in Green Bay.
Indianapolis has been unstoppable with the first-team offense on the field. These guys look like they are in mid-season form. And with the third preseason game always the one you see the starters the most, I expect to see the first-teamers in the game through the first half and for a series in the second.
Indy might put up 28 points in that time as they’ve looked fabulous against the Niners and Bills the last two weeks. I’ll even give credit to backup QB Curtis Painter who seems to be getting it and had 97 yards and a TD against Buffalo last week.
Green Bay has scored plenty of points this preseason, but the Packers have also struggled to stop teams. If they aren’t playing well defensively, the Colts will light them up.
I’m going to grab the points and play Peyton and the Colts in this one.
4♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Jack Jones
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Oakland Athletics
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I'm taking the A's at an excellent price Thursday as they continue trying to climb their way back in the AL West race by playing great baseball. Oakland is 6-2 in their last 8 games overall and have dominated the hapless Indians in the first two games of this series, winning 5-0 and 6-1 while outscoring Cleveland 11-1. The Indians can barely field a major league team right now with all of the injuries they've been dealt. Cleveland is 0-5 in their last 5 games, getting outscored 4-30 in the process. Dating back further, the Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 games.
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Vin Mazzaro has been a very effective starter this season for Oakland. In 15 starts this year, Mazzaro has gone 5-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.280 WHIP. I'll gladly fade opposing starter Justin Masterson, who is 4-12 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.631 WHIP this season. Masterson just hasn't been able to find his control all year, and the Indians are 8-17 in his 25 starts in 2010. Plus, the A's have had his number. Masterson is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.750 WHIP in 2 career starts vs. Oakland, allowing 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 8 innings. I expect Masterson to struggle again tonight and Mazzaro to be good enough to win. Roll with the A's Thursday.
Info Plays
3* on New York Mets -112
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Reasons the Mets win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (FLORIDA) - off a one run win over a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. This is an 83-33 ML System hitting 72.5% since 1997 while gaining +52.1 units. This system is 6-1 this season. Bet the Mets at home.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -1.5 +136
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The Padres own the D-backs, especially at home where they are a perfect 8-0 against Arizona this season. What's even more impressive is that all 8 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. The Padres are 11-0 in home games vs. NL teams allowing 5.3 or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 6.3 to 1.9. They are also a perfect 8-0 with Correia on the mound vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 8.4 to 3.1. We also can't ignore the fact that Arizona is 0-9 in road games off 3 straight losses to division rivals this season, losing by an average score of 2.6 to 5.6 in these spots. I'm taking the red hot Padres on the run line tonight.
Doug Upstone
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Detroit Tigers +1½
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The Detroit Tigers had their five-game winning streak snapped yesterday and look to get back to .500, heading north of the border to face Toronto. The Blue Jays will give the raised thread sphere to Ricky Romero (10-7, 3.50 ERA) who is trying to match a career high fourth straight win. Romero has 144 strikeouts and has permitted 154 base hits in 167 innings of work.
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Detroit will send Max Scherzer (9-9, 3.73) to the mound, whom has really been in a great groove since being sent to Triple-A earlier this season. Scherzer has 1.72 ERA in 12 starts since June 20 and could supply the Tigers with a road edge in specific situation.
Look to Play On underdogs on the +1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +165), against a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start, when their own starting hurler has ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This is highly profitable system with 116-36 record since 2006.
Lenny Del Genio
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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Same thing as yesterday. The Padres have good pitching, the Diamondbacks can't hit. The price isn't too outrageous so might as well fire on San Diego as they aim to sweep their division rivals. Arizona is now 0-8 at Petco Park this season following last night's 9-3 loss, which we forecast right here. San Diego is a phenomenal 17-2 this season as a favorite of $1.50 or more. That includes a 14-1 mark when priced between -150 and -200. Since the 1997 season, Kevin Correia, tonight's starter for the Padres, has a 23-6 team start record when favored. Take San Diego.
David Chan
Cardinals @ Nationals
PICK: Cardinals -1½
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Look for Chris Carpenter to put a stop to the Cardinals' recent woes. St. Louis is just 3-7 in its last 10 games, falling 3 1/2 games behind Cincinnati in the NL Central. The Cardinals won't be overlooking Washington after losing two straight to Pittsburgh.
The Nationals, though, are in a far worse place as once again they are playing the string out. Washington was listless in getting swept by the Cubs at home.
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The Nationals have dropped four in a row scoring just five runs in their four defeats. Now they have to face ace Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter is a perfect eight-for-eight in quality starts since the All-Star break. He's 5-1 since then with a 1.99 ERA.
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The Nationals' two most dangerous hitters - Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn - are a combined five-for-34 versus Carpenter.
St. Louis has dominated Washington, winning 13 of the past 15 times, including six straight.
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Jordan Zimmerman is making his first big-league start for Washington since undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Zimmeran is an excellent young prospect, but he's not ready to match Carpenter and his pitch count will be closely monitored.
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It's obvious the Cardinals are a strong play. The problem is laying such a high price. The high juice can be lifted by backing St. Louis on the run line as this game should not be close.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Oakland A's -117
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The Indians have now lost 5 straight, and I expect them to fall again tonight. The Athletics are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings in this series, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and we also can't ignore the fact that Cleveland is only 1-11 in Masterson's last 12 starts with 5 days of rest. The Athletics are 5-1 in Mazzaro's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record, which is just another reason why they get the call tonight.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago White Sox -1.5 +111
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We'll take the White Sox to get revenge on the Orioles from last night's disappointing 2-4 loss. This is a hot team at the plate right now, and one slow night will not cool them off. Chicago has recorded double-digits hits in 10 of their last 11 games. Edwin Jackson gets the start for the White Sox, and he has been nothing short of spectacular since being traded from Arizona. Jackson is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts for Chicago this season. Jake Arrieta is just 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.570 WHIP this season for Baltimore, and he has terrible control. He has walked 43 batters while striking out just 37 in 79 innings this year. The White Sox are 19-4 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in these spots by 3.1 runs/game. Take the White Sox on the Run Line.
John Ryan
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Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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5* graded play on the Mets as they take on the Marlins set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Mets will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 87-33 making 52.1 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a one run win over a division rival and with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. This system is 6-1 this season. Two strong starters going head to head tonight with Sanchez up against Niese. In Niese’s last four start she has allowed one earned run in each of them. Mets bullpen has been quite strong posting a 0.66 ERA and a 0.732 WHIP spanning 13 2/3 innings over the past 7 games. The Mets will get to Sanchez in this game. Take the Mets.