Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August 28

DUNKEL INDEX

Carolina at Pittsburgh
The Steelers wrap up their preseason at home against a Carolina team that lost at New England (30-7) last week. Pittsburgh is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2)

Game 101-102: Atlanta at Jacksonville (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 117.478; Jacksonville 118.770
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 4; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4); Under

Game 103-104: Detroit at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.771; Buffalo 123.728
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 7; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-4 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 121.526; Cincinnati 120.363
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3); Under

Game 107-108: St. Louis at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.113; Miami 122.084
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 109-110: NY Jets at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 117.967; Philadelphia 123.029
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Kansas City at Green Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 1120.586; Green Bay 120.458
Dunkel Line: Even; 36
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Under

Game 113-114: New England at NY Giants (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 121.281; NY Giants 126.654
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3 1/2); Under

Game 115-116: Washington at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.972; Tampa Bay 121.924
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 117-118: Carolina at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 115.199; Pittsburgh 123.116
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

Game 119-120:Minnesota at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.531; Tennessee 123.442
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+2); Under

Game 121-122: San Francisco at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 121.486; Houston 122.352
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: Chicago at Cleveland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.434; Cleveland 123.300
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 39
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 5; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5); Under

Game 125-126: Baltimore at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 123.717; New Orleans 129.012
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Denver at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.958; Dallas 122.920
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Seattle at Oakland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.320; Oakland 124.286
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 33
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+5 1/2); Under

Game 131-132: Arizona at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 118.631; San Diego 123.715
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Over

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at NY Mets
The Mets look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they close out the series against a Braves team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105)

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Arrieta) 16.332; Cincinnati (Axelrod) 14.621
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.854; San Francisco (Petit) 14.616
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+165); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.032; NY Mets (Niese) 16.199
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over

Game 907-908: NY Yankees at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.687; Detroit (Lobstein) 15.813
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.276; Baltimore (Norris) 15.304
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Over

Game 911-912: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Milone) 14.561; Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.785
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-155); Over

Game 913-914: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carrasco) 15.571; White Sox (Danks) 14.027
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-150); Over

Game 915-916: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 13.804; Houston (McHugh) 15.442
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-150); Over

Game 917-918: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.843; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.518
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Over

Brandon Shively

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Play: Under 57½

I like this game to stay UNDER the Total on this Thursday Night as the College Football season in finally underway. This game is tricky for the linesmakers to set the 'total' because of the differences in both teams style of play. In 2013, Texas AM's lowest total was 63 and that was vs. Alabama. We saw a high total of 81 posted for them when they played SMU. The average total for the Aggies last season was 72.5 and they ended up averaging 76 total points scored. For South Carolina, their average Total last season was 52.5 . The highest total was at 63 when they played Clemson and the game went UNDER by 15 points, 31-17.

Looking at this game, the Total of 58 is about 2 touchdowns less for Texas AM from last season. I do think that these 14 points are warranted though as Johnny Manziel is worth every bit of 2 -3 touchdowns in my opinion. Not only is Manziel gone, but so is WR Mike Evans who was a #1 Draft Pick. Evans was Manziel's favorite target as he caught 12 touchdowns and seemed to catch anything thrown in his vicinity. Now the Aggies more than likely will be starting a rFR in Kyle Hill. Regardless of who gets the start, I do not see the offense putting up more then 20-24 points in this game on the road in a rowdy environment. I will also note the Gamecocks have only allowed an average of 20 ppg over the last 4 seasons. I can see a lot of Texas AM drives stalling out and settling for field goals as touchdowns will be hard to come by.

For South Carolina, they lose QB Connor Shaw who was a dynamic dual threat that threw for 24 TD's and ran for 6 more last season. The replacement is Dylan Thompson who is not as agile and is more of a pocket passer. South Carolina will rely on their running game behind one of the nation's premier backs in Mike Davis who will be running behind an offensive line that returns 113 career starts. I look for Spurrier to call a conservative game for Thompson and this in turn will see more clock usage because of the majority of running plays.

A&M's defense was terrible last year, but they return 9 on defense this season. They should have one of the better offensive lines in the nation as everybody returns after allowing 222 rushing yards a game in 2013, they can only improve as everybody has another year under their belt. Also, I like the secondary for Texas A&M to make big improvements as well and I see them holding South Carolina to 27-30 points in this game for an easy UNDER.

In closing, I expect both offenses to be conservative and not efficient in the red zone with new starting quarterbacks. I clearly feel the loss of Manziel will be huge to the Aggies as it will take time for this offense to find an identity. Look for the Texas A&M defense to play inspired tonight as well as they got torched last year and HC Sumlin is under pressure to make the proper changes this season.

There are some key trends as well that we will use to our advantage for this game. The UNDER is 5-2 in Texas A&M' last 7 road games. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in South Carolina's last 8 Thursday games and South Carolina ended the season on a 4-0 UNDER run in conference games.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Bryan Leonard

Tulsa -5

Green Wave are starting a redshirt freshman Tanner Lee at quarterback After Tulane took a five game jump last year from 2 wins to 7 we expect regression Over the prior 8 seasons the Green Wave never won more than 4 games in a season The defense last year was 17 points better than the previous season The last four times these two have gotten together in Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane won by an average of 37 points Tulane beat Tulsa last year 14-7, holding them to a season low in points The previous four meetings had Tulsa scoring 45, 31, 52 and 37 points

In last years game Tulsa out gained Tulane but lost the turnover battle by two Tulsa stepped back defensively last year allowing over 10 points more than the previous season They have 10 returning starters to that side of the ball After winning 11 games in 2012 the Golden Hurricane won just 3 last year In 7 of the previous 8 seasons Tulsa won 8 games or more Tulsa has a strong program that has something to prove in 2014

Dave Essler

UL Monroe +2.5

These two teams met last year at Wake, and ULM actually beat them SU as a +2.5 point underdog. So, one would think Wake has revenge, but not on the road. ULM did lose some in the off-season, but they gained a QB. Senior transfer (from NC State) Pete Thomas, who went to ULM when Dave Doeren (new Wolfpack coach) said that Jacoby Brissett would start the next two years. Brissett is a Florida transfer. Thomas also played at Colorado State for two years, so he's got something to prove. He's not the be all, end all, or he'd still be in NC State, but he's a far better QB than a true Freshman (John Wolford) starting his first career game on the road. Dave Clawson comes from Bowling Green to be the first year Deacons coach, so we've got a first year coach and a true Freshman QB on the road. Yes, Wolford broke all Tebow's High School Florida records. But, this is a quantum leap. Wake brings back NONE of their starting backfield and only three offensive lineman. Not good, IMO. And they bring back ZERO of their defensive line. ULM brings back almost their entire defense, and defenses are almost always ahead of offenses early on, and Wake couldn't score LAST year with everyone that departed. Wake in their last 20 road games are 5-15 SU and not much better ATS. ULM has won SU three of their last four as a +4 underdog or less, and the loss of Price for Wake is far more significant than the loss of Browning for ULM. Wake was awful last year, and although ULM wasn't a juggernaut, Wake shouldn't be favored here, not with their lack of offense or defense from last season, minus the graduates.

Early thoughts on other Thursday games.

Being a Gamecock fan I am trying to be unbiased here. The loss of Shaw might be bigger than people think. Dylan Thompson simply isn't going to run, although he does have a better arm and they do have skill position players on offense. I suspect Spurrier may play it close to the vest here, not wanting to put Thompson in harms way early. Their defense without Clowney will obviously suffer, but their DB's are simply raw, IMO. So, no Manziel or Mike Evans, either. I still wouldn't lay the points at this point in time, and think it does stay under.

Unusual for Tulsa and Tulane to open with a Conference game. Tulsa lost at Tulane last season 14-7, which is one reason why the total may be so low. Both teams bring back most of their starters, so I actually lean over a little. We'll wait and see what the line does. 5 is a dead number, and if we took the points we'd want +6 and if we took the over we'd want it at less than 48.

I will almost always fade SEC teams on the road (or at home) against non-conference teams. They're almost always over valued, and this is probably no exception. Mississippi hasn't been a double-digit road favorite in quite some time, and that current total of 56 may be a bit too high. I do expect Ole Miss to have a great defense, so IMO right now that may be the best play in the game.

The best numbers are gone if you wanted to take Temple, and after what Vanderbilt did last season they're clearly going to be an early public team, so that early scalping of +17 isn't unexpected. Right now I don't like this game much at all.

Rutgers always has a good defense, but they don't play teams like Washington State very often. Rutgers goes to the B-10 and brings a ton of people back, while WSU brings a ton back, especially on offense. I can see this game staying reasonably close for the 1H, but the speed at which WSU runs their offense may wear out Rutgers in the 2H if they can't create some turnovers. Every WSU game will have a big total for obvious reasons, so we'll wait and see here. Perhaps I could tease Rutgers to more than +14, and we rarely tease totals.

Lee Williams

Ole Miss vs. Boise State
Play: Ole Miss -9½

We like Ole Miss -9½ here as we are getting 2 teams that certainly have a gap in talent level and an Ole Miss team that looks like it is ready to contend for SEC Title and certainly give Alabama a run for money.The Rebs had some issues with pass rush last year, but it looks like Freeze has tools in place to correct this and even with some new starters on offensive line, this Rebel team still has superior weapons at skill positions. This is a spot we expect Ole Miss to win by double digits!

JR O'Donnell

Temple +16

Temple Thursday night the 28th as let's look to this down right nasty dog + 16.... Temple will stay inside the 16.... Vandy welcomes a coach Mason from Stanford, new QB and lost the top WR a weapon.. Yes the Commes will be a good ball club imo just not the first few ball games. Temple has a quiet /young strong QB in PJ Walker from Elizabeth NJ.. 20 Tds to 8 ints and PJ who I followed in HS is a beast ... last season in 9 games and started the final 7 as a true frosh setting school records for touchdown passes and passing yards by a freshman. He really turned some heads @ the Manning Passing Academy.. Tale the Owls +16... Vandy Wins/Temple covers

Wunderdog

Mississippi vs. Boise State
Pick: Mississippi -10

There is something that looks odd here. Ole Miss has not had the national spotlight on them very often, while Boise State has lived under it for over a decade. Things sure look different with Boise State coming in unranked, and Ole Miss coming in at #19. There is a lot to look forward to for Ole Miss this season. Last year they lost five games, but four of those were to the top teams in the SEC that finished with a combined record of 44-9. They managed to beat LSU, and lost in the Egg Bowl to in-state rival Mississippi State. They went on to get a big Bowl win over Georgia Tech. Ole Miss has an experienced QB in Bo Wallace, and they return some key weapons along with a deefense that was above average a year ago, and should get better with 10 starters returning. Boise State lost five games last year - the most since 1998. The Broncos start anew under new head coach Bryan Harsin. While Bise State may win a lot of games with a favorable schedule, this is not a good spot for them here. The Rebels are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 outside the conference, and will be up to their "A" game against a named program that isn't what it was just a couple of years ago. lay the points on Ole Miss.

Ray Monohan

Ole Miss vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State +10½

This matchup between the Rebels and Broncos is an interesting one. If Ole Miss is as good as people say they are they should win with ease but I am not writing off Boise State so quickly now that Chris Petersen has moved on. New coach Bryan Harsin knows what winning is all about up in Boise and the Broncos always play smart football. Plus this is a neutral site contest in SEC country which means that just as many might be rooting against the Rebels as for them. The Broncs are a great underdog.

Carolina Sports

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Play: Texas A&M +10½

This is the first ever meeting between the Aggies and Gamecocks. Everyone knows that the Aggies lost two key offensive weapons in Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans. However, the cupboard is not bare for these guys. With 5 returning starters back on offense from a team that avg 44.3-ppg over the last two seasons, they will still be good this season. Kenny Hill will take over at QB this season and he extremely athletic. The defense needs to get better and it will with 9 returning starters back. This unit will improve as the season progresses.

The Cocks are loaded this year especially on the defensive side of the ball. The offense will be improved this year as we look for the 34.1-ppg numbers to get better with 8 starters returning on offense. Dylan Thomspon is no slouch at QB for the Cocks as he filled in nicely for Connor Shaw when he was injured. Offensively, the Cocks will be led by RB Mike Davis. Look for him to put up big numbers this year. Defensively, the Cocks are loaded with talent. Last year it was all about Jadeveon Clowney and no one talked about the other contributors. The defense only allowed 20.3-ppg last year and those numbers will improve this season.

Texas A&M is 12-30 on the road since 1992. Spurrier usually does his best in conference games as he is 90-65 ATS as a head coach with Florida and South Carolina. Texas A&M falls into a negative 9-50 ATS stat indicator in this one. Look for this game to be a shootout as the public is on South Carolina. Our ratings have South Carolina -10 so the line is fair but our computer is calling for a 4-point Cocks win. South Carolina wins this by a touchdown. South Carolina 34 Texas A&M 27

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Boise State/ Mississippi Under 54.5: The Mississippi Rebels return QB Bo Wallace, but also lose 2 of their top 3 WRs from last year and the replacements are rather inexperienced. The Rebels also have some questions along the offense and their running game is average at best. this is not a team that will win many games with just their offense. Its a good thing they don't have to because they have a defense that will have one of the best in the SEC, if not nation. Led by the Nkemdiche brothers this defense is stacked with 9 starters back, while overall they return 85.4% of their tackles from last year, which is 3rd in the nation. The Boise offense does not look like it will be as explosive as in years past. They do have Grant Hendrick back at QB and their top WR and top RB from last year do return, but this is also a team that is going through a coaching change,plus they have questions along the OL, where just 26 career starts return, which is 121st in the nation. Defense is not what one thinks when they think of the Broncos, but every year this defense is underrated and have allowed 18.7 ppg or less in 5 of their last 6 years. Last year was their worst as they allowed 24.8 ppg, but also had just 4 starters back. This year they have 8 starters back and overall return 82.8% off their tackles, which is 8th in the nation. The Under is 4-1 in Mississippi's last 5 games on Thursday, while the Under is 4-1 In Boise's last 5 games on Fieldturf. I see this one in the mid to lower 40's at best.

BEST OF THE REST

Temple +14 over VANDERBILT: Going with the Owls here. Experience is a huge factor early in the season and the Owls have it as the Commodores are ranked 124th in the nation in experience. Vandy will be breaking in a new QB, while The Owls have PJ Walker back after he ignited their offense in the 2nd half of last year, helping them average 33.3 pg in their last 6 games. The Owls also have a pair of solid backs and a group of WR’s that will be much better this ear with PJ in their the whole time. The commodores not only lost their QB, but their top 2 WRs as well. On defense the Commodores bring back just 4 starters, while the Owls have 8 back on that side of the ball. Temple will be an improved team this year, especially on offense with PJ Walker being in there for the whole year. The Owls also have a big edge in experience and the commodores have gone through a coaching change. Look for the Owls offense to put up enough points to keep this one close. KEY TREND: Temple is 6-0-1 ATS their last 7 games in August.

Marc Lawrence

Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play - Tulsa.

Edges - Hurricane: 8-1 ATS in this series, including 4-0 ATS home, and playing with revenge from 7-point loss as 3-point road favorite last season. Green Wave: 9-26 SU last thirty-five games. With Tulsa having gone 25-11-1 ATS in seasons after suffering a losing campaign the previous year, we recommend a 1-unit play on Tulsa.

Steve Rosen

Ole Miss vs. Boise State
Play: Ole Miss -10½

Boise didn't beat any good teams last year and lost 5 games. The best in the mountain west ought to get a beat down going on the road against a loaded SEC team with a good senior QB.Bo Wallace the Mississippi QB is very good when healthy, he has gotten banged up during the SEC season each year but he should be just fine for this game.Defensively, the Rebels are led by sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (eight tackles for loss), senior free safety Cody Prewitt (six interceptions) and sophomore safety Tony Conner (66 tackles). There are 2 main reasons I love this game.New coach and systems for Boise in Week 1 will having them running around like chickens with no heads. Ole Miss D will be very talented and very hungry to win this game.

Oliver Alonso

Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play: Under 47

Tulsa will host a familiar foe in a new conference when Tulane visits Thursday night in their American Athletic Conference debuts. The Green Wave beat the Golden Hurricane 14-7 last year in a Conference USA matchup, snapping an eight-game losing streak to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are looking for a clean slate in the AAC after following their 2012 Conference USA championship with a disappointing season.Tulsa had a very hard time picking up wins last season and ended up with a 3-9 record. They only threw for 191.4 yards per game in 2013, which ranked them outside of the top 100 in the country.

Last year Tulane was much better team thanks to their very good defense and this year they have an underrated defense that must not have much problems to stop Tulsa. Tulane's starting QB will be the freshman Tanner Lee. I don't expect a big game of this man the thursday in a rivalry game on the road.