Timothy Black
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -10½
South Carolina returns a great defense and they will look to feast on a new QB making his first road start. A&M finished 0-4 ATS in road games last year with their experienced offensive fire power, so it's not too much of a stretch to see that continue into the start of this year.
The Aggies defense has been very bad and starting on the road against South Carolina's offensive line, and RB Mike Davis, will do them no favors. The Gamecocks also start a new QB, but Dylan Thompson does have some experience and has more talent and experience around him, not to mention the comfort of the home crowd.
Playersbet
Tulsa -5.5
We are firing on Tulsa as we have them winning this game by double digits. Last year was an ugly performance by Tulsa as they lost 14-7. This year they get revenge and take it to the Green Wave. Tulane is also just 2-9 S/U on the road in two seasons under Curtis Johnson. Prior to last year this had been an automatic play on Tulsa each year as we won several LPS playing on them. Despite an avg line of -17, Tulsa was a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS in this series winning by an avg of 31 ppg (+217 ypg). The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and this trend will continue. Tulane is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tulsa and 1-8 ATS in their last 9. Lets start off this CFB season on the right foot as we cash our 1st play of the year.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ San Diego
Pick: Arizona +3
Arizona coach Bruce Arians is an outstanding coach with his teams at 5-2 ATS in preseason. Three potential starters and important backups will get their first significant playing time of the preseason. Guard Jonathan Cooper (turf toe) and linebacker Kevin Minter (pectoral muscle) will play and the team is hopeful that cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and nose tackle Alameda Ta'amu, who suffered knee injuries last December, make their preseason debuts. Cooper, Minter and Mathieu were expected to be starters this year, and Ta'amu split time a year ago with Dan Williams. The Arizona defense is deep, allowing 16.8 points per game. San Diego (1-2) had a weak defense last season and has not looked sharp, allowing 21 and 41 points the last two weeks. San Diego coach Mike McCoy admitted this week that they weren't going to show many things. This makes sense as Arizona and San Diego close out the preseason this week and then open the regular season 11 days later in Glendale, so the value is with the dog. Take Arizona.
Larry Ness
Rutgers at Washington St.
Prediction: Rutgers
Rutgers makes its Big Ten Conference debut Thursday when it meets Washington State at Century Link Field in Seattle. The Scarlet Knights have been picked to finish last in the seven-team East Division by Big Ten writers. Rutgers' challenge will to be able to match the physical play prevalent in the Big Ten. Head coach Kyle Flood said his team is up to the challenge. "We've played physical offenses before, we've played bigger teams before," Flood told reporters. "We've never built our team to be the biggest team. It's not philosophically how we go about things. But when we've played at a high level, we've been able to compete with anybody in the country."
The Cougars, playing in the Pac 12 (picked to finish fifth in the league's six-team North Division), are not known for physical play. However, led by record-setting QB Connor Halliday, they can surely put point son the board. Halliday set school records for completions (449) and attempts (714), and equaled the school record with 34 TD passes. Halliday also threw 22 interceptions last season and almost has to get improvement from his running game for Washington St to make any real strides.
The Cougars finished last in the nation at 53.4 rushing YPG last season but the hope is that the emergence of freshman RBs Gerard Wicks and Jamal Morrow could help take some pressure off Halliday. Getting a more balanced offense will help but the defense had better improve, as well. Washington State allowed 458 yards per game in 2013, 102nd among the 123 FBS teams (also allowed 32.5 PPG). It returns its entire defensive line (is that good news?) but must replace three in the 2ndy.
Rutgers opened 4-1 in 2014, losing only its opener at Fresno St, which was one of 2014's best games (FSU won 52-51 in OT, as Rutgers' two-point try failed). However, by the 1st week of December, the Scarlet Knights needed to beat USF, just to become bowl-eligible. They did that but lost 29-16 to Notre Dame in The Pinstripe Bowl. QB Gary Nova threw five TD passes vs Fresno St but by year's end was on the bench.
Rumor has it that Ralph Friedgen, who coached Maryland from 2001-10 but has been unemployed for three years before be hired as offensive coordinator, has been an excellent influence on Nova.
I've decided to 'bite' on that prospect. Century Link Field, home of the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, is nearly 300 miles from Washington State's campus in Pullman, so this is hardly a home game for the Cougars. Mike Leach is prone to brain cramps (is it possible to forget the fiasco in the New Mexico Bowl last December?) and Rutgers has won four of its last five season openers (only blemish is last year's overtime setback at Fresno State).
Take the points and run!
Sam Martin
Tulane at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa
Since joining Vegas Experts five years ago, we've backed Tulsa against the spread against Tulane every season in this annual rivalry and we suffered our first loss last season. That 14-7 outright loss was not only the first time Tulsa lost outright in the previous nine years, but also the first time they failed to cover the spread in this rivalry game.
Tulsa hadn't just been beating Tulane, they were blowing them out. The previous eight games saw Tulsa win by margins of 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35, and 24 points. It's no wonder they are against listed as the favorite here despite coming off a three-win season a year ago and breaking that streak, however, given the series history there is still value backing the side and ALMOST always wins big!
Tony Karpinski
Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulane +7
The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes, coming in off a terrible season, have to play with a strong effort that they absolutely need behind their running game, I expect a healthy dosage of Zack Langer throughout. Tulane needs to keep moving guys around on the defensive side of the ball, and I trust them to get things done in Tulsa, mainly by stopping the expected running game.
Brad Diamond
Rutgers vs. Washington St
Play: Rutgers +8
I am making this call knowing I did radio for many years in ear shot of the Scarlet Knights campus. Would love to see the Rutgers alumni and students finally settle into a conference where they can compete at a high level, but the Big-10 is not their best chance of success. Dancing in the Big East for 2+ decades, the AAC for a brief stint and now the Big-10 has to, initially, complicate the schools approach to recruiting 4* and 5* HS student athletes? Washington State plays in their second home, the daily concubine of the Seattle Seahawks of the NFL. A little unearthing stat to play havoc with your mental processing, the Cougars are 0-6 SU in the Super Bowl Champions building.
HC Kyle Flood (15-11) brings back 16 starters to the Rutgers football team, whereas HC Mike Leach (93-59) of Washington State returns 14 starters form 2013. The Scarlet Knights are more run oriented than the Cougars who only run out of sheer boredom. In 2013 RU averaged 26.5 points per game, while allowing 29.8 points per game. Washington State put together an offense last year that rolled to 31.0 points per game, defensively allowing 39.5 points per. WSU gave up 4.5 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per pass. With those numbers it’s amazing they beat USC (10-4) and Arizona (8-5). Overall Rutgers has a solid DL and LB corpse, but lacks the secondary to stay with the Cougars wide outs. Washington State has many issues on defense, but in the early going within the environment at Seattle, they should win this SU. Now the key point, who grabs cash? If the Scarlet Knights can go on the road to Fresno State (11-2) and lose by one-point 52-51 in game #1 last year, they should cover here as a road puppy 17-8 ATS L25 in that role.
Jim Feist
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Play: New England Patriots +3
The Patriots have a real strong QB rotation for 2014 and rookie Jimmy Garrappolo will play the whole game. The kid has looked and he'll be facing NY Giant backups. Garoppolo has played well this preseason, throwing for 334 yards on 24-for-37 passing with four touchdowns and no interceptions. And this Patriots defense is deep. New York is playing its 5th preseason game and has little to prove at 4-0. The defense has allowed 26 and 24 points the last two weeks and the rotation behind Eli Manning isn't impressive with Curtis Painter and Ryan Nassib. With Odell Beckham Jr. still injured and Marcus Harris now on Injured Reserve, the wide receiver corps is thin. Their offensive line is a problem: Outside of J.D. Walton at center, the rest of the offensive line is in flux.
Carlo Campanella
Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5
Seattle knows they have a target on their backs after winning the Super Bowl and they've lived up to the challenge by rolling through their competition during Preseason play. We wagered on them during Week #2 and Week #3 this exhibition season and cashed both times, as they easily beat the Chargers, 41-14, and followed that victory up with a 28 point victory over Chicago, 34-6, last Friday. Seattle heads to Oakland for their final Preseason game this Thursday knowing that they're 8-0 ATS in their final exhibition game of the season, including 4-0 ATS in their final game behind Head Coach Pete Carroll. Seahawks roll into the Regular season with a third straight exhibition victory.
Freddy Wills
Wake Forest vs. Louisiana Monroe
Play: Under 45½
Defense is always ahead of offense at this point in the year and for both Wake Forest and LA Monroe, I think offense is going to be their biggest uphill battle in the early going especially since they both have to replace a veteran starting QB. These teams met in a 21-19 battle last year and I don't see any of these offenses putting up much. Wake lost all of their top offensive starters and only averaged 18.3 per game last year while their defense is in good shape particularly in the secondary which just didn't give up big plays a year ago.
Dave Clawson takes over for Wake Forest and has a history for turning programs around, but not in year 1. This will be an ugly game I think Wake will hang in there with their defense, but LA Monroe will hold on. Wake is under 31-15 in their last 46 non conference games and 21-7 on the under in their last 28 overall.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Detroit Lions +4½
The Lions are taking over 4 points here and have won and covered the last 6 in the series vs Buffalo. Detroit is 17-5 to the spread vs AFC Teams in Preseason play and have covered and won 6 straight in game 4 of the Preseason. Buffalo is laying points but is 1-13 straight up vs NFC teams and has failed to cover 6 of the last 8 on Thursday. Look for the Lions to keep this one close and no surprises if they pull the upset. Take the Points with Detroit. On Thursday jump on as we are using the Most Powerful data in the industry. There is a 15-0 NFLX Top play up and 3 more NFL plays all with systems cashing 90% or higher, There is also the first big College football play this season and MLB. Start off big in football. For the free play take the Detroit Lions.
Tony Stoffo
New York vs. Philadelphia
Play: Over 43.5
Even though it's week #4 while the starters sit - I still feel Kelly and the Eagles will push the ball down the field with Mark Sanchez, and Matt Barkley getting the majority of the snaps.While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the over to the winning play since 2010 making them the perfect opponent for this game to sail over this posted total. This two met in New York in their final preseason game with a combined 47 points being scored. I look for nothing different in this spot this evening.
EZWINNERS
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks -2
Wake Forest and Louisiana-Monroe both have a lot of rebuilding to do on the offensive side of the ball, but the Demon Deacons look like they might be one of the worst in college football this season and yet they opened up as a favorite on the road in their opening game. Both of these teams are replacing starting quarterbacks, but for Wake the running game also looks to be in pretty bad shape. Last year the Demon Deacon defense fought hard and were the keys to Wakes four victories last season. This year with an offense that will also struggle to score points they only return five starters on the defensive side of the ball. There are a lot of hole in this year's defense that will need to be filled by incoming freshmen and I don't expect them to play at a high level in the first game of the season on the road in an unfamiliar environment. Especially at the quarterback position where Wake will start true freshmen John Wolford who will be taking the job after just two months on campus. The Warhawks will have to replace Kolton Browning at quarterback, but ULM does have a strong receiver corp to help the new quarterback that is led by junior Rashon Ceaser who had 964 receiving yards last season. On the defensive side of the ball, Monroe should have one of the stronger units in the defensively challenged Sun Belt conference. I like this group to come up big in this home opener against a Wake Forest offense that doesn't strike much fear into an opposing defense. I should have jumped in this when Wake was laying points, but I think the right team is favored now in this game. Wake lost to ULM at home last season 21-19 and they are just 4-12 straight up on the road the last three season. Lay the points.
DAVE COKIN
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT NEW YORK GIANTS
PLAY: NEW YORK GIANTS -3 (-120)
This is all about gathering information and playing an advantage, so there’s very little analysis involved here. The Patriots will treat this game as nothing more than a warmup for the regular season. Bill Belichick got a really crisp effort from his regulars last week and this will simply be an evaluation exercise to determine perhaps one starting offensive line spot and the final cuts.
It’s a little different story for the Giants. Their new offense still needs reps, and it appears as though the ones are going to play somewhere between 15-18 snaps. That’s 2-3 series where the Giants will have starters on the field, while the Patriots will be countering with backups.
There’s really nothing more that I need beyond that information. In a game that doesn’t count in the standings, if I can get that many snaps with regulars vs. reserves, I’m going to be taking the team playing the first unit guys. In this case, that’s the Giants, so I’m laying the points tonight.
Chase Diamond
Wake Forest vs. UL Monroe
Play: Wake Forest +2
This game features Wake Forest at UL Monroe and has some very huge line movement in this game. Wake opened up as 7 point favorites in this game and public money has pushed it all the way to Wake +2. Looking deeper into the numbers you will see 70% of the public on UL Monroe plus I haven't seen one capper on Wake Forest and a ton on UL Monroe. Everyone knows what happens when everyone is backing one side. Take Wake Forest plus the points.