Cajun Sports
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -10.5
This will be the first meeting between these two clubs even with A&M having been in the SEC for two seasons. The Aggies are without Johnny Football and key receiver Mike Evans who both make their home in the NFL. Those are two key players missing on a unit that will be tested by a front seven of the Gamecocks that are still very talented even with the loss of two AA’s in Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcey Quarles. There are questions in the secondary because they lost both starting corners but they have talent ready to step in and a few with game experience. The A&M defense will struggle against a Gamecocks OL that could be one of the best in the nation. South Carolina has an eighteen game home win streak that will be extended to nineteen games on Thursday night in Columbia.
Sleepyj
Rays / Orioles Under 8
Today we have a nice pitching matchup here in Baltimore. The O's will send RHP Bud Norris to the mound with his 3.91 ERA and a 11-8 record. Norris lost his last outing on the road and will look to add another win to his credit here tonight. His last outing lasted just 2 innings as the Cubs really handed it to him. Norris hasn't seen this Tampa lineup since May 7th. I think this will help Norris Vs. the Devil Rays lineup. Tampa has struggled to put a solid game together as this road trip has moved along. Tampa did get the win last night which makes me even more confident that Norris will come with a focused effort. The O's had to face LHP Smyly last night and now have to face RHP in Hellickson. I think the timing may be off a shade here for the O's as they flip flop here with the oppositions arms. Hellickson has dropped his last 3 starts but hasn't had a bad game. He only allowed 13 hits and 5 runs in those 3 games. His strikeouts have actually gone up as he recorded 19 in those last 3 games. I'm sure we will get a solid effort on his end tonight. Baltimore is in the drivers seat right now in the AL East and i'm still not convinced the bats are working to there capability. The O's have only plated 9 runs outside of a 9 run game the last 6...last night was the 3rd 1 run game in those 6 games. I'm just not sure seeing a LHP last night, and now back to a RHP they will be able to hit a solid effort from Hellickson. I see this one staying under the total of 8. I can see 6 run game here tonight guys.
Scott Spreitzer
New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New York Jets +3
While Jets' starters are expected to sit, the Eagles will go even a little deeper, not only not playing their starters, but also sitting several key second-string players. The Eagle defense has been horrible in the second half of preseason games, at least the reserves, who're the players we'll see on the field tonight. Philly will reportedly start Matt Barkley at QB, while Michael Vick will see a little action early-on for Rex Ryan. I do like the rotation for the Jets slightly, after tonight's starters take a spot on the bench. The Jets fit a 35-14 preseason NFL spot. You play on teams with a winning SU record if they're underdogs to a team with a preseason win percentage of .250 to .400. The teams fit the bill. We'll recommend a play on the Jets plus the points on Thursday night.
Jimmy Boyd
Temple Owls +14
Vanderbilt should not be laying two touchdowns against Temple tonight. This is going to be a difficult year for the Commodores, who have just 10 starters back (6 offense, 4 defense) and lose one of the most underrated coaches in the country in James Franklin. Not to say Derek Mason won't end up being a good coach, but he's bringing in new schemes to an inexperienced bunch that lost their starting quarterback and big time playmaker in wide out Jordan Matthews.
While Temple is picked to finish near the bottom of the American Athletic, I look for the Owls to be greatly improved in year two under Matt Rhule. One of the big reasons I'm high on Temple is sophomore quarterback P.J. Walker. Once he took over as the starter the offense took off. In their final three games of last year the Owls lost to UCF by just 3-points, Cincinnati by only 7 and crushed Memphis on the road 41-21. Temple was clearly playing their best football at the end of last season and I look for that to carry over to the opener.
Rhule is 8-1 ATS when listed as an underdog as the head coach of Temple, 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games overall and the Owls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in August. These combine to form a Dynamite 21-2 system in favor of the Owls.
Art Aronson
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -143
The visiting Texas Rangers will have Nick Tepesch (4-8, 4.45 ERA) toeing the rubber tonight; Tepesch gave up six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings on Saturday in a loss to the Royals. Note that Tepesch has just two wins since the beginning of June and is only 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.97 ERA in all road starts to date. The home side counters with Collin McHugh (6-9, 3.02 ERA) who is coming off a very solid stretch of pitching, the right-hander has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and has won two of his last three overall. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the last place Rangers after their massive offensive output in Seattle yesterday. Note that the Astros have taken four of six from the Rangers when hosting this matchup this season; also note that Texas is just 28-40 away from friendly confines this year. McHugh gets the nod on the bump, I think that’s enough to warrant a second look at the home side in this matchup.
John Ryan
Tulane vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -6½
The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will win this game by 10 or more points. The one item I don't like is that the public has been backing Tulane since the line came out weeks ago. However, it is not at a level that would generate a 'red flag' situation. In those situations, more than 76% of the betting public is on the same side. The public doesn't always lose, but they certainly lose more than they win overall as a composite total. Tulsa returns just 5 starters on offense and I strongly believe they will struggle mightily in this game. The SIM projects that they will score 15 to 21 points. In past games, where Tulane has allowed this range of points they are 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-9 ATS since 1992. Further supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2003. Play against home teams (TULSA) first month of the season and after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games and with 5 offensive starters returning. In this brief report, it shows clearly that Tulane is the play.
Patrick Webb
Wake Forest vs. UL-Monroe
Play: UL-Monroe -2
This game opened with ULM a 4 point dogs at most books and has steadily been moving towards ULM in a 6 point swing to this point. I don't think this will reach the key number of 3, as the line is trending back towards Wake. I would not take ULM at anything higher than -2.5 and think it will be possible to get this at pick or -1.
Both of these teams are extremely young, but ULM has a serious experience edge in terms of returning contributors. ULM is looking to temper the youth movement with a 5th year transfer QB Pete Thomas taking the reigns from star Kolton Browning who carried the offense on his back last season. Thomas won't be as much of a running threat as Browning was but should get a bit more help from the skill spots as nearly everyone returns outside of Browning. RB DeVontae McNeal was lost for the season, but he may be missed more as a returner than as a rushing threat. ULM was a heavy pass driven team last season and will likely be so again this year as they return a talented slot receiver in Rashon Ceasar who accumulated 936 yards on only 64 catches and had a solid 67.7% catch rate. If Thomas can establish some chemistry with Ceasar early that should lead to some opportunities for the rest of the receiving group against a defense that will likely struggle to generate a threatening pass rush versus a veteran offensive line (79 starts among 3 returning starters).
Wake's new coach Dave Clawson is a turnaround specialist coming off a very good rebuild of Bowling Green. He inherits an incredibly young team and is starting a true freshman QB tonight. John Wolford isn't going to be surrounded with a lot of veteran talent as the top two rushers and receivers are gone from last season's squad. Wake was a team that struggled to generate a consistent rushing attack last season and may struggle again this year. Wake returns several lineman with starting experience and will remain fairly young on the front line.
ULM returns a ton of experience on defense and really played well down the stretch last season. This is the third year in the system for many of these players and ULM held Wake to 19 points at Wake last season with a four year starter at QB. ULM runs a 3-3-5 that constantly shifts making Wolford's job even tougher. Compound that with Wolford making his first start on the road and the ability for ULM to run in a ton of players in expected 90 degree heat, ULM's defense has a big advantage in this game when Wake has the ball.
Wake returns a lot of experience to the back seven, but are thin along the defensive line as they transition from a 3 man to a 4 man front. Wake's secondary is talented and is headlined by two solid corners in Kevin Johnson and Merrill Noel who combined for 6 picks and 18 pass break ups last season. The issue is they won't likely match up with Ceasar and Wake is going to struggle to provide a pass rush against ULM's scheme and line.
Special teams are a likely wash in this game. Neither of these offenses are likely to be consistent or explosive, but ULM's experience along the lines and especially on defense gives them a pretty solid edge to go along with their first home game opening weekend in years. I look for ULM to take an early lead they never relinquish and win this game by 7 to 10 points.
Doug Upstone
Temple vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -13½
Play On favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like Vanderbilt in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more straight wins, with four or fewer defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. How this has worked in the past is the carryover effect of winning, especially against what is typically weaker non-conference competition which is weaker. Eventually, this likely catches up with these favorites but early in the campaign not so much which is why they are 22-3 ATS, 88 percent.
Hollywood Sports
Temple at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Temple
Temple was just 2-10 last season -- but they suffered five net close losses of eight points or less which was the most in the FBS last season. This team will not be intimidated traveling to face an SEC team as they played Notre Dame, Louisville and Central Florida last season (and they lost by only a 39-36 score to the Golden Knights). Sophomore QB P.J. Walker returns after leading the Owls to 33 PPG in his last six starts of the season after he took over the starting job.
Vanderbilt is likely to regress from their 9-4 season that benefited from three net close victories of eight points or less along with two net upset victories. Now the Commodores must replace five All-SEC players as well as their head coach James Franklin who transformed the program. Too much turnover for Vandy to cover a near two-touchdown point spread against an underrated Owls team. Take Temple plus the points.
Bryan Power
Colorado vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The Giants have finally gotten in gear w/ B2B home victories over the Rockies. I had them Tuesday and then last night they prevailed in walkoff fashion. Considering Colorado's road woes, I see San Francisco making it three straight this afternoon.
The Rockies actually swept the Giants here at AT&T Park back in June. Revenge was a big reason I took San Fran in each of the first two games of this series. They lost the opener, but now seem to have read the memo about how awful Colorado is on the road this year. They're now 19-46 away from Coors Field, easily the worst such record in the league. They've lost 21 of 25 (on the road) and were held to one hit Tuesday.
For a bad team like the Rockies, it's pretty tough to get back up after such a painful loss. They'd even tied the game up in the top of the ninth after again being held w/out a hit through five innings. The offense has just 12 hits total in the series and as I said earlier in the week is far less potent on the road (3.4 rpg, .233 BA). Yusmeiro Petit's recent struggles aren't enough to scare me off the Giants here. Rockies' starter Jordan Lyles certainly is no better.
Bob Balfe
New York Mets +105
When these teams get together we usually see low scoring games that end up very close in score. These teams are really mirror images of each other in talent which is not that much this year. The Braves just happen to have a few more wins. Niece is a better pitcher in this one and I don't like how the Braves have been hitting the ball the last few games. Take the Mets
Greg Smith
Ole Miss vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State +11
This is not Bryan Harsin (new head coach of Boise State) first rodeo. Harsin was the Offensive Coordinator and QB coach for the Broncos back when they won 2 BCS bowl games. Normally I would not like a first year coach on the road (or at least not at home), but he's getting an experienced quarterback and team. He is familiar with this program and it's staff, which always helps. With the Broncos coming off a humiliating defeat to Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl, I'm looking for a much focused Bronco effort against Ole Miss. Take the points!
NFL Predictions
Denver -3
I had the Broncos last week, in what equated to playing roulette in the 4th quarter. It was pretty well a tossup late before the Texans scored a touchdown and then completed the 2-point conversion to win the game. The Broncos will go up against another Texas foe, the Cowboys. Brock Osweiler will assume the backup role in this game, or I suppose, you can say starter since Manning will be gone quickly in this game. These preseason games are important for the 2nd year pro out of Arizona State who was taken in the second round. Second round picks are expected to produce, and I think Osweiler has showed glimpses of why he can be a starting quarterback. However, he’s been too inconsistent for my liking. Preseason is really the only time he can showcase his talents so it is important for himself. He’s been adequate this preseason, there have been moments of good football and average football. Osweiler was on point in game 2, passing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 10 of 13 passing. Last week he didn’t look so great, going for 43 yards and a pick on 4 of 11 passing. Zac Dysert, who many think has a chance to be a good quarterback, will follow Osweiler. Dysert was taken in the seventh round of the draft last year, but many people believe he should have been taken earlier. He passed for 63 yards on 8 of 11 completions, chipping in with a touchdown as well against the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. Look for him to get more playing time this week, as he sat last week giving Osweiler all of the playing time with Manning.
The Cowboys will be just fine on offense this season under Tony Romo. Romo will get the brunt of the blame for which should be another inconsistent season, but I don’t think it’ll be deserved. The defense in Dallas is going to be bad, with a chance I think, to be the worst defense in the NFL. The secondary should be able to get beat with ease. It isn’t only the starters here, but there is no depth to be found exactly anywhere on this roster. Defensive line scares me as well with this unit. Osweiler and Dysert should be able to move the ball against them. The defense has been steamrolled already and it is only the preseason, showcasing the lack of depth throughout. They gave up 27 to the Chargers, 37 to the Ravens, and 25 against the Dolphins. That gives us an average of 29.6 points per game, in the preseason! Preseason is typically a time for the defense to look good given no teams game plan, but Dallas has had problems nevertheless.
I like the quarterback rotation of Osweiler and Dysert here over Brandon Weeden and Caleb Hanie. Weeden is in a position he should be, in a backup role, but what he is going to do any given week is anyone’s guess. I give the edge to the Broncos’ defense, too. The Cowboys should get exploited right off the bat, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bronco first-stringers get a touchdown or at least a field goal before they exit. I like the Broncos to win this game by a score of around 27-17. Consequently, the point spread of -3 on Denver at even money looks pretty enticing to me
SPORTS WAGERS
Temple +13½ over VANDERBILT
In 2012, Temple won just four games. Last season the Owls regressed and won just two games. The Owls stock is extremely low to start the year and that’s going to allow us to step in and take back these significant points. QB P.J. Walker stepped in for Temple last year in Week 6 but by that time the Owls were in a serious hole, which allowed Walker to fly far under the radar for the remainder of the season. All Walker did was throw for over 2000 yards and 20 TD’s and in the process he kept the Owls in most games. Walker is also a dual-threat, as he rushed for 322 yards and three more TD’s. The Owls possess a solid running game as well. What really sticks out, however, is that the Owls with Walker at QB, ranked No. 21 in points per drive started inside their own 20-yard line. That’s significant when taking back these points because it limits the opposition’s possessions.
The Commodores closed the season in 2013 with five straight wins to run their record to 9-4. That run boosted the Commodores into the #25 spot in the rankings. They went onto the Compass Bowl, where they thumped Houston, 41-24. Now Vandy starts the year with high expectations and that makes us instant sellers. Truth be told, the Commodores are a real wild-card this season with a new head coach in Derek Mason, filling in for James Franklin, who left for Penn State. Mason is the former defensive coordinator for Stanford and while the Commodores defense figures to benefit, their offense may not. Vanderbilt had six QB’s at camp and ultimately penciled in Patton Robinette as the man to take over from Austyn Carta-Samuels. Robinette played sparingly last season, attempting just 88 passes. He threw four TD’s but was also picked off five times and now Robinette will take over an offense that lost plenty. Jordan Matthews, the SEC's all- time leading receiver, is in Philly playing for the Eagles while Jonathan Krause (42 receptions, 714 yards, three TDs) graduated. The Commodores do not have a star RB. Only three starters return on the defensive side of the ball for the Commodores. They lost all four of its starters in the secondary and that should bode well for Temple’s accurate and methodical passing game. That’s not to say that the Commodores will regress badly, as they have recruited well, but in the first game, with a new coach, an unproven QB and a huge turnover in personnel, this is simply too many points to be spotting to an undervalued Owls’ squad in the first game of the season.
Tulane +6½ over TULSA
Do you really want to spot 6½ points with a team that is likely to have trouble scoring 14 points? One of the problems most folks have with backing the Green Wave is that there have been some off-field distractions with the arrest of senior RB Robert Kelley a couple of days ago for robbery and battery. The arrest alleges that Kelley beat up a student and stole his bike. Kelley’s lawyer says no but dude has been suspended and he was Tulane’s go to guy in the backfield. Yeah, it hurts but it also provides opportunities for others and this Green Wave coaching staff is so good that they can prepare a team to step up in the face of adversity. The job that Head Coach Curtis Johnson and his staff did last season for the Green Wave was one of the best in the country at maximizing talent. The team's talent was average, but it was led by an aggressive defense that forced negative plays and created turnovers. Another problem that folks see for Tulane is that they have a new QB in Tanner Lee, who has never even attempted a pass at the collegiate level. We say big deal. Lee replaces a complete stiff in Nick Montana and has looked very good in camp. Said one NFL scout regarding Tanner Lee, “I like the film I have seen on QB Tanner Lee. He has the most physical QB gifts on campus since J.P. Losman. I like his movement skills and the way the ball comes out of his hand. The Green Wave may be a lot better on offense than projected but even if that’s not the case, their outstanding defense will keep them in games. Remember, this was a top-20 defense last season and most of the starters return, including Lorenzo Doss, an almost sure bet to be on an NFL roster within the next two years. Tulane is an up and coming program that is on the right track while the same can’t be said for Tulsa.
Tulsa's quarterback Dane Evans has not protected the ball well in the past, so there is a chance for Tulane's defensive opportunistic to prove itself to start the season. Evans started five of Tulsa’s last six games a year ago and impressive he was not. He connected on just 43.1 percent of his pass attempts, while throwing 10 interceptions and only four touchdowns. Trey Watts, Tulsa’s top receiver (and dual threat) is gone, which leaves a weak receiving corps with an erratic QB trying to get the ball to them. The Golden Hurricane had a great year in 2012, losing just three times in 14 games. Last year, they won just three times in 12 games and many believe that last year just went horribly wrong and a bounce back this year is likely. We don’t see it that way at all. We see a Golden Hurricane team with a ton of question marks and a horrible offense. Tulsa’s defense is decent but no defense can stay on the field all game and expect to thrive. Overall, the Green Wave is better on both sides of the ball and in a game in which the dog probably has a better chance of winning than the chalk, we’ll scoop up these generous points with confidence.
Oregon Under 10½ +135
When we think of the Oregon Ducks we think of blowouts and its high octane offense that seemingly puts up points at will. The Ducks not only win frequently but they cover the spread almost every week. In fact, it’s been 11 years since the Ducks had a losing against the spread (ATS) mark, meaning if you bet them every single week since 2002, you would be up a small fortune. Because of that, we get a great opportunity to apply our sell-high angle to this season wins total.
Oregon Coach Mark Helfrich was handed a juggernaut when Chip Kelly opted out for greener pastures but things are going to be much more difficult for Helfrich this season. Indeed, he gets star QB Marcus Mariota back but until the injured Bralon Addison returns, the Ducks are missing their top four pass-catchers from a year ago, along with left tackle Tyler Johnstone. That’s not all the Ducks are without. In fact, Oregon is not structured in the same way that we’re used to seeing, as the program must endure a major turnover in personnel this season with an incredible 40 newcomers on the roster. Even more difficult to overcome is the fact that the top-three coaches have a combined two years' experience in their positions. Defensively, the Ducks are without six starters from a year ago and they’re also without longtime defensive boss Nick Aliotti. Furthermore, the Ducks are in an extremely tough conference, as the PAC-12 is loaded with talent, strong teams and accomplished coaches.
The Ducks come in as the #3 ranked team in the nation but that ranking is not only generous but it’s based on years of success. When we look at the Ducks schedule, we only need to find two losses to cash this ticket and we can find many more potential losses than that. The Ducks host #8 Michigan State in Week 2. They could very well be the underdog in Week 6 when they travel to UCLA. If the Ducks are favored against the Bruins, it will be by 3 or less. The following week, in a letdown spot they host #25 Washington. In Week 9, the Ducks host #11 Stanford and in no way can that be considered a gimme. Oregon closes out the year on the road against in-state rival Oregon State and that’s not a sure win either. Last season, the Ducks needed a last-second touchdown and two-point conversion to win by a single point at home over the Beavers. The Beavers return 14 starters and the visitor in this series has won just four of the past 17 games. We’ve highlighted five potential losses and while the Ducks surely won’t lose them all, there’s a great chance they lose at least two. This does not take into consideration any other upsets that often occur, not to mention injuries to key personnel that always occur. In the end, we’re extremely confident that the Ducks are not going to be the dominate force that they’ve been in the past decade during the regular season and we’d be absolutely shocked to see them run the table or go 11-1 during the regular season. Sell high.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland -1½ +115 over CHICAGO
This is the tale of two starting pitchers headed in complete opposite directions. John Danks went 4-14 with a 4.75 ERA in 138 innings for the White Sox a year ago. He returned in mid-May last season from a year off (shoulder) but left his velocity on the DL. The result was a soft-tosser with limited upside and while Danks has had some nice games this year, things are starting to get ugly for him. The South Side has dropped each of Danks’ last four starts. One of those was a 16-0 loss against Texas. Over his last five starts, Danks has walked 15 batters in 27 frames while striking out just 12. Danks was perhaps a bounce-back candidate entering the season but his surgically repaired shoulder seems to have sapped his upside. His fastball usage and velocity continue to slip, as he's had to rely more on a changeup to induce swings and misses, which obviously isn't the answer. He piqued some interest with a four-win June, but he's had no gems since and all of his skills have been terrible. Danks’ groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% puts him at risk of a serious HR spike given his bandbox home park (+19% LHB HR). Throw in his putrid control over the past two months and Danks has to be considered one of the biggest blow-up risks in the game right now.
Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco has been on fire. Carrasco earned a spot on Cleveland's Opening Day staff, but was swiftly banished to the bullpen after four rough (albeit unlucky) April starts (17 ER in 24 IP). He's recently emerged from the pen after some August roster shuffles, seemingly a changed pitcher and his dominance is less surprising than you'd think. Although his 2013 strikeout rate only slightly improved in composite, his 9K’s/9 in 72 Triple-A innings may have been a sign of things to come. His fastball velocity is higher than it's ever been, touching 97 mph. Carrasco has issued just three walks in five August starts, carrying over the improved control he displayed while in the pen. The combination of outstanding control, high K rate and elite groundball rate of 54% is a recipe for success. Lefties hit Carrasco hard in '11 (.888 OPS) and '13 (.980 OPS), but a .605 OPS versus lefties this season suggests he's figuring them out. Time in the bullpen has allowed Carrasco to pitch more to his strengths. After throwing his slider (his best pitch, inducing whiffs 30% of the time) just 9 percent of the time in April, he's throwing it 20% of the time in August and it's clearly producing results. Carrasco's swing and miss rate of 15% since being reinserted into the rotation is one of the best marks in the league among qualified pitchers in August. His pitch counts have been on the safe side thus far, but that's a quibble in comparison to the ERA boost and profit he's likely to provide over the remainder of the season.