Sean Higgs
Temple vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Temple +14
New HC Derek Mason takes over Vandy. I try to fade new coaches taking over programs. New schemes and styles. I don't think Vandy should be laying 10 to anyone, even Temple. The Owls were 2-10 LY. Now in his 2nd year, HC Matt Rhule will look to build with 13 returning starters. They have their QB and top RBs back. I am not saying they steal one here, but I expect them to be well within the number.
Dave Essler
South Carolina -6 1st Half
Been waiting on anything under -7 and lo and behold. Aggies just too young an inexperienced to play at W/B in the season opener. The crowd will be a huge factor. I love this much better than the game. Spurrier had been known to go conservative after a lead, and with Thompson I suspect he does. Also, a game w.ECU next week and Spurrier will play everyone, getting ready for week three against Georgia.
Steve Janus
Baltimore Orioles -119
This is a great spot to jump on the Orioles at home against the Rays. Baltimore will be sending out Bud Norris, who is 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.200 WHIP over 9 home starts. While Tampa Bay Jeremy Hellickson has looked sharp since returning to the rotation, he's had his troubles slowing down the Orioles. Hellickson had a 6.29 ERA over 4 starts last year against Baltimore, including a 9.00 ERA in his two outings on the road. The fact that the Orioles lost last night at home is also a big plus for this matchup, as they haven't dropped consecutive games at home in two months.
Key Trends - Norris is 12-4 in his last 16 starters against AL teams with an OBP of .330 or worse on the season, 8-1 in his last 9 against division opponents and 17-6 in his last 23 at home after a loss.
System - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.50) (AL), after a combined score of 4 runs or less are 41-21 (66%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Stephen Nover
Tulane +7
Curtis Johnson did a magnificent job with Tulane last year. He greatly improved the Green Wave defense to the point where Tulane forced 35 turnovers. Tulsa, by contrast, had a terrible season last year going 3-9. I'm not convinced the Golden Hurricane have turned things around. I'm not a fan of Tulsa QB Dane Evans, who is turnover prone. Tulane forces turnovers and has a very good secondary. The Green Wave are very dangerous as 'dogs under Johnson. They went 7-2 ATS in that role last season and enter this matchup with a great deal of confidence. Now that the line has reached 7, I'm going to back them.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Oakland Athletics
Oakland's Sonny Gray shook off a few so-so efforts with 8 1/3 quality innings of work last Friday vs. the Angels in the A's eventual 5-3 win. That was Gray's second solid outing and win vs. the Halos this season. Oakland has again caught up with the Angels in the AL West and won two of three meetings at the Coliseum last weekend. Halos starter C.J. Wilson rarely goes much beyond six innings, and the overworked Angel bullpen is almost sure to be called upon once again at the Big A.
Jack Jones
Temple +14
Vanderbilt is coming off a second straight 9-4 season, which seemed impossible with how this program struggled prior. In 122 years, Vanderbilt football saw one 9-win season. That total has jumped to three thanks to James Franklin, who has bolted for greener pastures at Penn State. Franklin will be replaced by Derrick Mason, who served as the defensive coordinator the last three years at Stanford.
Temple had won eight or more games from 2009 through 2011. After falling to 4-7 in 2012, the Owls plummeted even further in 2013 with a 2-10 campaign. Head coach Matt Rhule is squarely on the hot seat and needs to return this program to relevance. Al Golden was responsible for their success from ’09 to ’11, but he is now with Miami. Rhule will get at least one more season to try and turn it around.
A closer look at Temple last season shows that it was nowhere near as bad as its 2-10 record would indicate. In fact, it lost five games by a touchdown or less, including seven by 10 points or fewer. This team really started turning things around once freshman P.J. Walker took over at quarterback. He is among 13 returning starters on what should be a vastly improved Owls squad.
Walker ended up completing 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,084 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while also rushing for 332 yards and three scores. He threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to UCF (36-39), showing what he could do against one of the better teams in the country. He also completed his first 16 passes against SMU and threw for four touchdowns in a 49-59 loss. The defense needs to get better, and it should with eight starters back.
I am way down on Vanderbilt this year. The Commodores only return 10 starters and lose Franklin, who is simply irreplaceable. The losses are real big on offense with QB Austyn Carta-Samuels and the top three receivers gone from last year, including the SEC’s all-time leading receiver in Jordan Matthews (112 receptions, 1,477 yards, 7 TD last year). The defense only has four starters back and loses six of the top eight tacklers.
Asking the Commodores to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is asking too much. Temple is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. The Owls are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Temple is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
The Real Animal
Rutgers +8
This line looks suspicious to me. How is Washington State, a team with a cumulative 18-56 record since 2008, more than a touchdown favorite against a 2013 bowl qualifier? The Cougars have only been favored three times against a BCS opponent in the Mike Leach era. Last year they were chalk of exactly 1.5 points against California and Utah, who combined finished 6-18 straight-up. Rutgers has 16 starters back including senior QB Gary Nova as they prepare for life in the Big 10. Washington State loses three starters on the offensive line and that’s big considering the Cougars have allowed 276 sacks the last six years (most in the country). They are completely one-dimensional having finished DEAD LAST or #123 in rushing producing just 53.4 yards per game. They are abysmal defensively having allowed 32.5 points and 458 yards a game last year. Not good considering their out-of-conference schedule included Southern Utah and Idaho, two teams they outscored 90-10! So imagine how many points they allowed against teams with a pulse! How about 55 to Stanford, 52 to Oregon State, 62 to Oregon, 55 to Arizona State, and 48 to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl. Look on principle alone you shouldn’t be favored by over a touchdown alone if you allow 48 to CSU. Rutgers returns 99 career starts on their offensive line plus their top rusher and top receiver from 2013. The Cougars were #102 in total defense a year ago and have allowed 31.8 or more points in seven consecutive years. Certainly Coach Leach has improved this team offensively but they are still a disgrace on the defensive side. This trip shouldn’t be intimidating for the Scarlet Knights. They traveled west to open up the 2013 campaign-a one-point verdict at Fresno State. Former Maryland coach Ralph Friedgen is now the offensive coordinator at Rutgers. That should help Nova. Washington State is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in lined openers the last seven years. Washington State QB Connor Halliday piles up a ton of statistics with a favorable pass-first option attack but also throws his share of interceptions (22 last year). Note: This game is being played in Seattle where Washington State has been outscored 150-64 in their last three games here.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON STATE (-8) over Rutgers
Your FREE WINNER is Washington State who returns all of their skill players on offense led by QB Connor Halliday. Rutgers doesn't play a lick of defense and gave up 50 & 51 points in their first two games last year and we expect more of the same tonight against the high powered Cougar offense.
Jeff Alexander
Oakland A's +102
The A's are showing value in the underdog role with Gray on the bump. Gray has owned the division, going 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA this season. The Athletics are 11-1 in his last 12 starts AL West starts going back to last season. They've won each of his 3 career starts versus the Angels. Gray has been awesome on the road where he has a 2.71 ERA. LA's Wilson has an ERA of just 4.11 at home. The Angels are 1-5 in Wilson's last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record.
Marc Lyle
Mississippi State vs. Boise State
Play: Mississippi State -10
We have two teams that I truly believe are going in different directions. Mississippi State is coming off a 8 win Season in the SEC west and they truly believe they can contend for a title this season. Miss is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 ATS on a neutral field. Im not saying Boise State will be horrible this season but they have a brand new coach tonight against a hungry SEC team that wants to come out and make a big statement.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -119
Hellickson has looked pretty good through his first seven starts, but the Rays have lost his last three, and I don't trust him versus Baltimore. He has a 6.29 ERA in his last four starts versus the Orioles and a 9.00 ERA in his last two starts in Baltimore. Norris has been rock solid at home where he has a 2.86 ERA in nine starts. He's been at his best in division play with the O's winning eight of his nine starts versus AL East foes behind his 2.62 ERA. The Rays are 2-7 in Hellickson's last 9 road starts while the Orioles are 10-4 in Norris' last 14 home starts.
Scott Delaney
For once, Houston isn't the worst team in the league. Which means it's not the worst team in the Lone Star State. And the Astros are enjoying being able to dominate Texas when the American League West rivals get together. That's why Houston is my free play.
I want you listing the pitchers in this one, as I see Collin McHugh doing a much better job than Nick Tepesch tonight at Minute Maid Park.
I know Tepesch is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in three career starts against the Astros, but with as hot a bat as Chris Carter is carrying lately, I don't know how long the right-hander will last. Besides, he is 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA in seven games since the All-Star break and is 2-4 with a 4.97 ERA in nine games on the road this season.
Instead, we're backing a right-hander who has had a solid August, going 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in five starts. He's surrendered just one run in four of those starts and two runs in his most recent start Saturday at Cleveland. Look for him stymie the Rangers' bleak lineup tonight.
Take Houston and list both.
3♦ ASTROS
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they make their Big 10 debut in an out-of-conference game against the Washington State Cougars from the Pac 12.
Rutgers has a small chip on their shoulders coming into the Big 10 this year because they were picked dead last in the 7-team East division of the conference and many believe they aren't big enough or physical enough for this style of play with the players they've recruited.
I disagree.
When Greg Schiano was coaching there, that was his philosophy... he knew he was never going to get the tallest or fastest or most talented players in the country, so he knew he had to be the toughest/strongest team. The players on the roster today still believe that so this conference, and especially tonight's game, shouldn't be a problem for them.
Both teams return several starters from 6-7 teams a year ago, but Rutgers is going to rely heavily on a running game that is led by junior Paul James... who rushed for 881 yards and 9 TDs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. And more good news for this offense is the fact that former Maryland coach, Ralph Friedgen, was hired this season as the new OC in hopes of helping QB Gary Nova become much more efficient.
Take Rutgers to keep it close and cover the number as your free play of the day.
2♦ RUTGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Under in the Rays-Orioles series finale.
Both Tuesday and Wednesday's meetings held Under the total, and I see Jeremy Hellickson and Bud Norris keeping the scoreboard quiet tonight as well.
Hellickson sports a 2.61 ERA in limited action this season, and is getting his first look at Baltimore this season.
Norris is 5-2 at Camden Yards this season with an ERA under 3. He allowed 2 runs in his 5-plus innings in his lone start against the Rays this season back in the month of May.
Baltimore is on a 9-3-1 Under run their last 13 games, and I expect them to end the night with another Under as they conclude with Tampa this Thursday night at home.
3♦ TAMPA BAY-BALTIMORE UNDER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Minnesota Twins over the Kansas City Royals, and I want you listing Tommy Milone and Jeremy Guthrie in this one.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Twins - Tommy Milone just faced the Royals on Aug. 17, and he took the loss in Kansas City's 12-6 thumping in Minneapolis. Jeremy Guthrie was on the hill, so revenge is on the brain.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Royals - I know Jeremy Guthrie has won five of his last six starts, but he also has a 3.57 ERA in those outings - which I feel his higher than it should be - and I'm wondering why the price isn't higher.
In conclusion, why MINNESOTA is my SMART PLAY in this game - The Twins have played well enough to win the first two games in this series, and this is the perfect spot for a breakthrough. In the series-opener, the Royals were getting shut out until the ninth inning, but Alex Gordon delivered a two-run homer for a 2-1 win. Last night, Minny's Phil Hughes was dominant through seven innings before the Royals got their offense going in the eighth. Look for Minnesota to pull off the upset in this one.
2♦ MINNESOTA