Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August, 29

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Seattle at Houston
The Mariners look to snap a 6-game losing streak and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Seattle is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martin) 14.960; NY Mets (Torres) 14.017
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under

Game 903-904: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 14.562; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.960
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.890; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.019
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+140); Over

Game 907-908: Oakland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.098; Detroit (Scherzer) 16.663
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under

Game 909-910: LA Angels at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.970; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.187
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Over

Game 911-912: Kansas City at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.811; Minnesota (Deduno) 13.794
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-135); Under

Game 913-914: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.001; Boston (Lester) 15.485
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over

Game 915-916: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 15.579; Houston (Lyles) 14.124
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.424; Atlanta (Medlen) 17.074
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Over

WNBA

Connecticut at Seattle
The Storm look to build on their 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home games. Seattle is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7)

Game 601-602: Connecticut at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 101.318; Seattle 117.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 16; 137
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 7; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Teaser: South Carolina -3.5 & Under 64SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks have a lot of swagger in their step as we approach the 2013 season, and for good reason. South Carolina returns five starters on an elite defense that ranked 11th in the nation in 2012.
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They will have both quarterbacks Dylan Thompson and Connor Shaw back for another season, but of all the 12 starters returning in 2013, none are more important than Jadeveon Clowney on defense.
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There are few players in college football that are more highly touted than Clowney who had 13 sacks in 2012. Reports out of training camp are that expectations are even higher in 2013 (he was clocked running a 4.4-second 40-yard dash this summer).
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They open the season at home, where they were 7-0 last season. They host the Tar Heels who finished in a tie for first in the ACC Coastal division.
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North Carolina has to be happy with it's first season under Larry Fedora, they finished with a record of 8-4, including some big wins against the likes of Miami, Virginia Tech and rivals N.C. State. Quarterback Bryn Renner returns after setting a single season school record with 28 touchdown passes in 2012.
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This is a tough road game versus an SEC opponent though, so an upset would appear unlikely. The Gamecocks won the last meeting by a score of 21-15 at Chapel Hill back in 2007. South Carolina has taken four of the last five contests dating back to 1988.
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The listed total is in the mid fifties, and by adding 7.5 points with a teaser we push it well into the sixties.
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South Carolina only saw the total exceed 61 points once in 13 games last year. Their strength isn't in putting points on the board in a hurry, but rather in controlling the clock and shutting down opponents with their elite defense.

FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HUGE revenge game for Ole Miss's 19 returning starters who blew a home game to these guys last year, despite being up 26-20 late. In fact, they are now 0-3 vs. Vandy, and the seniors ARE NOT going to be swept 4-0 by these Commodores.

Justin BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ole Miss vs. VanderbiltFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ole Miss -165FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt's offense took a big hit this year with their 2nd best WR being dismissed from the team during an ongoing investigation. Vandy is only returning 6 players on the defensive side of the ball so there will be many questions to be answered at the start of this season. They should have a pretty good team, but I do not think they will be able to match their success from last season considering all the drama around the team right now.
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Ole Miss finished 7-6 last season, but their record does not show how good the team really was. They let a couple games get away from them against Texas A&M and LSU. They lost to Vanderbilt last season, so this game will be all about revenge. Mississippi is returning all 11 starts on defense and 8 players on offense. This team is stacked this year, so look for a strong showing on the road.

Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rutgers vs. Fresno StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Fresno State -9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights make the long trip across country to open the 2013 campaign against a pack of Bulldogs that take care of business when installed as chalk. Rutgers returns just ten starters from a year ago. Fresno State returns fifteen starters including fifth year senior QB Derek Carr who has thrown 63 touchdowns to only 16 interceptions over his career at Fresno State. His main target also returns sophomore WR Davante Adams who caught 102 passes as a freshman and reeled in TD’s passes in their last eight games to end the season. Based on our TPR Index Fresno State has a 3.8-point advantage against a current line of -10. We note that home favorites in this price range with a 3.5 or more point advantage have cashed the winning ticket at a rate of 14-6-2 ATS the last twenty-two qualifying contests. Bulldogs HC Tim Deruyter is 10-4 SU and 11-2 ATS since taking the job at Fresno State. We also note Deruyter is money when installed as a favorite with his team a perfect 9-0 ATS in that role. Lay the chalk with the Dogs
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Fresno State 36 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 20

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi vs. VanderbiltFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Mississippi -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both sides were solid last season but while the Rebels are using it as a springboard to bigger and better things the Commodores have likely peaked. Ole Miss has a greater number of returning starters and is looking for some revenge for a one point loss at home last season. The Rebels need this one desperately to achieve their goals this season and because this is their lightest FBS opponent before an end of October tilt versus Idaho. They will be ready.

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North Carolina vs. South CarolinaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 56½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a big total for a first game of season and will almost call for perfect execution on both teams to be reached.We simply dont think offenses will be this sharp and N.Carolina should make significant improvement on defensive side of ball.A lot of this number is based on some of Tar Heels poor defensive showings last year.Take Under here

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC at HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Hawaii will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. The news out of LA that the Trojans will run the offense with two quarterbacks is certainly not a solid decision in my opinion. Even the great Steve Spurrier could not make that work, so I find it even more difficult t think Kiffen truly has a handle on this situation. Both quarterbacks are inexperienced sophomores as well. Two quarterbacks can easily split a team and divide a locker room so this will be quite interesting to see how it unfolds once the schedule hits conference play. The quarterbacks will have Lee targeted often in their schemes and for good reason. He broke the PAC-12 conference record getting 118 receptions and gaining 1,721 receiving yards.He is hobbled though by a shoulder injury and is listed as probable for the game. Hawaii brings back 16 starts with 8 each on offense and defense. The OL will be much improved from last years' debacle. They allowed the seventh most sacks in FBS and the offense was horrid due to eight season ending injuries. I like the experience that Hawaii brings back and I expect them to give USC a bit of a battle in this game. Take Hawaii.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ole Miss/ Vanderbilt Under 53.5: I really wanted to make Ole Miss a top play, but with all the negatives surrounding the Vanderbilt program, the though of them rallying around the situation and getting a win kinda scared me off. I may still make Ole Miss a lesser play as we get closer to Thursday, but for now I will go with the Under in this game. Vanderbilt will be all about defense early in the year. Last year this defense was one of the better in the nation allowing just 18.7 ppg and 334 ypg on the year. They do have some questions along the DL this year, but are very stout in the back 8 and they have one of the better secondaries in the SEC and the 23rd rated secondary in the nation, which should do well vs the Rebels passing game. The Vanderbilt offense will struggle in the early going. I do like Carta-Samuels as their QB but it will take a bit of time to get this offense rolling. Vandy is also now without Chris Boyd, who had 50 catches for 774 yards last year. The running game could also be a problem out the gate as they have to replace 1000 yard back Zac Stacy from last year. Phil Steele Vandy QB's rated 14th in the SEC their RB's listed 10th and the OL listed 13th. He does have the WR's listed 3rd, but obviously that was before they lost Boyd. This popgun offense will now face an Ole Miss defense that is looking to improve on last year and with 10 starters back they should do just that. Phil Steel has this defense rated 4th of better in all three categories (LB, LB, DB) in the SEC. This will be ne tough defense this year. The Only chance that Vandy has to win games in the early part of the year is low scoring defensive battles. They just don't have the offense to get in higher scoring games. Their defense will be tough this year and so will the Rebels. Dating back to 2006, the last 7 meetings between these teams have failed to put up more than 53 points and I see this one keeping with that pattern.
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UNLV/ Minnesota Under 51: Last year I was one of the many that had the Under in this game and it was looking pretty good even at 13-13 heading to OT, but 31 points later and it turned into a loss. Lets hope for no OT in this one. Last year the Spread was Minnesota -8 and this year it's -14 so the chances of OT are less than last year. The Golden Gophers have 10 starters back on offense, but this is still a ground-it-out Big 10 offense that will run the ball more than throw it and that will eat plenty of clock. Last year the Gophers put up just 169 yards passing and 150 the year, so clearly Jerry Kills philosophy is running the ball. Last year the Gophers defense wasn't bad, allowing 24.7 ppg, while their pass defense was one of the better in the league, allowing 187 ypg through the air. This year with 6 starters back and more depth, the should be even better. UNLV's offense won't scare many teams this year, even with 9 starters back. Last year they put up just 22 ppg and while they did have 219 ypg through the air, they only completed 53.4% of their passes. That's the 3rd year in a row that they completed 54.4% of their passes or less. This is not a team that will score quickly. If they score it will be long time consuming drives, and that's the same way that Minnesota will have to score, especially vs a UNLV defense that has 9 starters back from a group that improved by more than a TD over 2011. The Under is 5-1 in UNLV's last 6 games in August, While the UNDER is 8-2 in Minnesota's last 10 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 games on Thursday. Provided no OT, this game should be played in the upper 30's or maybe eve the low 40's at best.
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2 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UTAH -2.5 over Utah State: Utah State should be a very good team by year's end, but they should struggle in this one vs Big Brother, who has revenge on their minds. The Aggies bring back Chuckie Keeton, but his top 5 targets are gone from last year and they must replace 1500 yd back Kerwynn Williams. I feel the Utes defense that should be improved will be able to stop this group, that will need some tome to gel, especially learning a new offense under Matt Wells. Utah may or may not make a bowl game this year, but they are an improved team and should take care of business in this revenge spot.
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1 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulsa +3.5 over BOWLING GREEN: I know the Falcons will have a good year, but Im not so sure about this line move. Tulsa is a good experienced ball club and are pretty solid on both sides of the ball, while Bowling Green should struggle offensively in the early going of the year. Vegas had the right side favored when this game came out and I will go with Tulsa, expecting an out right win from them.

Joe DuffyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina +13FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina’s fast-paced offense will challenge USC’s (yes that’s what they call them in Columbia, SC) defense. Both head coach Larry Fedora and defensive coordinator Vic Koenning say the defense is so much more ready for this year.
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They play a unique 4-2-5 defense, something few if any played anything close to at any level. Many injuries further disrupted the defense. Well at Clemson, Kansas State, and Illinois Koenning’s defenses showed substantial improvement from year No. 1 to year 2.
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Even on offense, it was a big adjustment. But now the Tar Heels have a proven solid QB in Bryn Renner and a nice running back crew of A.J. Blue, Romar Morris, Kris Francis. This reminds me of when the ‘Cocks opened up against Troy, another fast-paced offense. The back door was open, Troy made a late run.
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UNC will catch some teams off-guard. A double-digit underdog winning outright is very possible.

Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi at VanderbiltFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vandy will likely have to rely on their defense in this one as they break in a new starting QB, a new RB, and a couple of offensive linemen. They certainly don't want to get into a shootout and I believe they have the talent on defense to keep Ole Miss from busting out. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze has done a tremendous job bringing in top talent on both sides of the ball in Biloxi, led by DE Robert Nkemdiche, the best of the incoming recruits, in my opinion. These teams are 6-1 to the Under in their last seven meetings with an average total of 46. In fact, only one of the last seven meetings has seen a total posted higher than 49. I'm recommending a play on the Under between Ole Miss & Vamdy on Thursday.

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Seattle Mariners at Houston AstrosFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Seattle sends Erasmo Ramirez to the mound against Jordan Lyles and the Astros in Houston Thursday night, the Mariners will do so knowing Ramirez is in solid KW form with 20 strikeouts and 4 walks his last five starts. In addition, Ramirez's road ERA is nearly 2 runs per game lower than his home ERA this season. With Lyles home ERA (6.38) almost 3 runs per game higher than his road ERA, look for the Astros to fall to 2-9 in their last 11 games behind Lyles here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yovani Gallardo is throwing well for Milwaukee with a 2.65 ERA his last three starts. He is also 10-4 with a 2.77 ERA against the light hitting Pirates, who are 25th in baseball in runs scored, 19th in on base percentage with little power. The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 games as a favorite and go with Gerrit Cole, who has a 4.24 ERA his last three starts. The team is 3-6 his last nine starts and he's only 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA at home.

Vegas ConnectionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois St at Ball StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Ball StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ball State comes in ready to attack the MAC conf but first they get a tune up vs the Redbirds. Cardinals 9-4 in 2012 return 7 offensive players including QB Wenning they win this one by 3 TDs.