Steve Janus
Milwaukee Brewers +146
This is a great price to back the Brewers against division rival Pittsburgh. Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo is a solid 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts. All three have resulted in wins for the Brewers. Gallardo is 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA over 17 career starts vs Pittsburgh (14-3 team record). That's more than enough reason to back Milwaukee at nearly +150.
Adding even more value here is the Pirates send out one of their weakest starters in Gerrit Cole, who is just 4-4 with a 4.36 ERA at home and 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last three starts. Cole also has a 4.50 ERA and 1.833 WHIP vs the Brewers.
Milwaukee is 8-2 over their last 10 games following a loss and 4-1 in Gallardo's last 5 vs the NL Central. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 0-5 in their last 5 in Game 3 of a series.
Chip Chirimbes
Baltimore Ravens vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams -6½
The defending Super Bowl Champs get no respect as the winless St. Louis Rams (0-3) are huge favorites at home. Now granted the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall but the difference between these two and their power rating compared to this line tells me Baltimore is more concerned with their opening night contest at Denver next Thursday night. The Rams haven 't been impressive but this 'line' is telling.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays have slipped 2.5 games behind Boston in the race for the American League East. They have a bit of a cushion on the Wild Card spot but I am sure they don’t want to play in a single elimination game. Yesterday they beat the Angels and this is the final game of their set at home against L.A. before they start a crucial series at Oakland. Jake Odorizzi take the hill and he has not been good for Tampa this season. However, I think he is going to be facing a lifeless Angels team just looking to get the heck out of town this afternoon. Day game after a night game with nothing to play for, perfect spot to mail it in.
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North Carolina vs. South CarolinaSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: North CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line is generous on North Carolina in this game so they are worth a small look. The Tar Heels are in their second year under HC Larry Fedora, and they return QB Bryn Renner. North Carolina’s offense improved by 12.6 points per game from 2011 to 2012, and that was in Fedora’s first year. The Tar Heels know the system better now, and we expect big things from their offense in 2013. South Carolina is a very strong team out of the SEC, and they could possibly make a run at the national title. However, they play at Georgia next week in a big showdown game which may keep them from playing their best tonight. The line is generous on North Carolina in this game so they are worth a small look.
Art Aronson
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The visiting Royals will send Bruce Chen (5-2, 2.88 ERA) to the mound as the team goes for the sweep in Minnesota here. Chen did not fare well in his last start out; giving up seven earned runs in just 3 2/3’s innings in loss to the Washington Nationals. In fact the left-hander has given up 13 runs in his last nine innings. Chen has had his fair share of troubles as well in Minnesota. Last year Chen gave up 12 runs over just 8 2/3’s innings while losing both games last year at Target field. While there hasn’t a lot of bright spots for the Twins this year, Sam Deduno (8-7, 3.69 ERA) has been consistently solid all year. The right-hander allowed just one run on three hits over six innings in a 5-1 win over the Indians last Friday. Deduno won his first three career starts versus Kansas City with a 0.93 ERA, but gave up four runs and 12 hits in a 5-2 road loss Aug. 7. The Twins aren’t certainly the underdog here but their looks to be a lot of factors going the teams way with Deduno versus Chen matchup on the mound. The Twins likely don’t want to suffer the embarrassment of getting sweep at home here. I expect a more motivated Twins team to finally get a win here and snap a four game losing streak. We are also getting good return money here on the underdog.
Doug Upstone
Rutgers vs. Fresno State
Play: Fresno State -11
Fresno State returns 15 starters and should hit the ground running this year. They have a tremendous home field advantage as well. Look for a 2 TD victory, at least. Lay the 11 points.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles +142
The Orioles are showing value at this price with Tillman gripping the pill. He has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.97 ERA, and he has been lights out against the Red Sox, going 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last five starts against them. He's won his last two meetings over them by throwing 13 scoreless innings. The Orioles are 13-4 in Tillman's last 17 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 road starts. In addition, the Orioles are 7-0 since the beginning of last season in his starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are 6-0 this season in his starts versus clubs that outscore their opponents by 0.5 runs or more per game. Tillman has clearly been at his best against the stiffest competition. The Red Sox are just 1-5 in Lester's last 6 starts versus the Orioles. Bet Baltimore.
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UTAH (-2.5) over Utan StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The college football season is here and there will be more than 30 games played this weekend. Today, we look at a game from Thursday's card where we will back the revenge-minded Utah Utes in an early season in-state battle. Utah usually hammers State annually winning the last 12 games by an average of 22 points! But last year the Aggies stunned Utah in overtime 27-20. Utah is not going to get many wins this year playing their second year in the tough Pac-12 but they will win this one easily. Take the Utes to get revenge.
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Bowling Green + over TulsaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While several other MAC coaches have turned one big season into a bigger gig, Dave Clawson has made steady progress in four years at Bowling Green despite getting little attention. Last year the team finished 8-5 despite a tough schedule and the Falcons have covered in the opener all four years under Clawson including two S/U underdog wins. This year's team is loaded with experience and the defensive numbers were very impressive last season, allowing less than 17 points per game and less than 300 yards per game. Tulsa is certainly a tough early test for the defense as the Golden Hurricanes are routinely among the national leaders in many offensive categories. Tulsa has much more prominent games with Colorado State and Oklahoma ahead and this game could get overlooked however. Tulsa has lost its opening game three straight seasons including losing twice as a road favorite and the Tulsa defense could take a big step back this season with very little experience. Tulsa lost seven of its top nine leading tacklers from last season and the while the offense still has several prominent weapons, the offensive line is being completely rebuilt this season. Backing a MAC team as a favorite against a team that won 11 games last season looks a bit questionable but the Falcons will be ready for this opportunity. Bowling Green has covered in six straight season openers while Tulsa has struggled in the road favorite role.
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Brewers / Pirates Under 7.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even with opportune recent acquisitions, Bucs continue to be defensively-oriented as they batten down the hatches in their quest to make the MLB postseason for the first time in more than two decades, and not sure just what this Brewer lineup can do about it. Under 7.5, it is.
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UNLV vs. MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: UNLV +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be out for a bit of revenge tonight when they travel to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers to open the college football season. These two teams met in Vegas to open the 2012 campaign and Minnesota escaped with a 30-27 Triple OT win, failing to cover the 8.5 point spread. The Rebels had chance after chance to win the game but they just couldn’t get over the hump against the Gophers. We feel that a more experienced Rebel team will show up tonight and give the Big 10 squad all they can handle. This is a do or die year for UNLV HC Bobby Hauck and anything less than a 6-6 record and a bowl game will probably cost him his job. The Rebels return most of their starters for 2013 including QB Nick Sherry and RB Tim Cornett, who is a top back in the MWC. He is 4th on the list of active players with 100 yd rushing games with 11 and we should see a heavy dose of him tonight. Two TD’s seems too much to lay on a Minnesota team that scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games that 2013 QB Philip Nelson started in 2012. UNLV hasn’t won a road game since 2009 (22 straight losses) and we’re not crazy enough to say they can win tonight but staying within 14 points of a pretty weak Big10 team doesn’t seem like too big of a task here. It’s yet to be seen if the buzz here in Vegas for this UNLV team is for real but playing a close game against a BCS school tonight will go a long way in silencing some of the local critics. Look for a spirited revenge filled effort from the kids from Vegas tonight, keeping the game well within the 14 point spread.
Mike Lineback
Minnesota Twins 1st Half +0.5 -125
KC start Bruce Chen is normally streaky good or bad, and right now he is struggling, giving up 13 runs in his last 9 innings, spanning two starts - both losses. Meanwhile, Twins starter Samuel Deduno, got back on track his last start versus Cleveland, giving up only 1 run, 3 hits in 6 innings of work. Plus, Deduno has fared well vs. the Royals, winning 3 of 4 starts from the visitors, including two starts this season. He has allowed only 2 runs in his three Royals wins, spanning 14.1 innings. Prefer to play F5-innings, given this starting matchup & KC's superior edge in the bullpen.
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UNLV +14 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bobby Hauck is 6-32 at UNLV but for those looking to fade the Rebels, we say don't let the smooth taste fool you. This is the best UNLV squad since John Robinson's 2000 edition that whipped Arkansas in the Vegas Bowl. Bowl contention and a finish in the upper half of the division standings are eminently reachable goals. In fact, you may want to play the Rebels over 4 regular season wins (+100) because frankly that is a grossly underpriced win total. The Rebels are dangerous. They return more starters than any program in the Mountain West, a total of nine such performers on both sides of the ball and they have a QB, Nick Sherry, that was well on his way to breaking some MWC records before going down with an injury. We'll back the Rebels with more enthusiasm at home this year, but two touchdowns from a ball-control Gophers team without much explosiveness is enough to induce a nibble right out of the gate.
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Minnesota’s offense can’t be trusted spotting points like this. The Gophers enter the season with the second youngest and most inexperienced quarterback group in the country. Philip Nelson is the only one with starting experience and he’s no Johnny Manziel. Nelson completed a pedestrian 49% percent of his pass attempts and had just as many TD’s as he did picks. That’s not a ringing endorsement. The Gophers will once again attempt to control the clock by running right, running left and running up the middle. The Rebels might just be the most undervalued squad in the country and taking back 14 points with the far superior QB is almost always worth a bet. That applies here. Upset possibility.
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North Carolina +12 over SOUTH CAROLINASERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re always on the lookout for value and overpriced teams, especially in the early going when people have to rely on what they read. South Carolina comes in as one of the early favorites to reach a BCS Bowl. You’re going to read that Steve Spurrier is 22-1 in Week 1 over his career and how the Gamecocks ferocious defense is going to dominate games. That may be true but 12 points is a lot of points to be spotting a Tar Heels offense that is very capable of lighting it up. We also have the ranked team versus unranked angle here and that means that when you wager on a ranked team with so much hype, you are going to pay a premium to do so and that’s something that can be rarely endorsed.
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The Tar Heels return QB Bryn Renner and all he did as a junior was help UNC score an average of 40 points a game. Renner is a year older, he’s as comfortable back there as any QB in the nation and he seldom backs a bad decision. In fact, Renner threw just seven picks all of last season while hitting for 28 passing TD’s. The knock on the Tar Heels was a defense that did not match the offense but they figure to be better this season with seven starters returning.
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South Carolina is the more balanced team here, at least that’s what the experts say but there are concerns. The hype surrounding its defense last season was warranted and it all starts with Jadeveon Clowney, who had the best single-season in school history last year. Still, the unit lost several players this year and return just four starters from a year ago. That’s significant, as defenses thrive as a group and this group has plenty of inexperience. The Gamecocks offense is also very efficient with QB Connor Shaw. Shaw is entering his senior season and is the program's all-time leader in completion percentage at 668. However, opposing defenses had to deal with Marcus Lattimore a year ago, arguably the nation’s best back but he’s now departed and that’s a big void to fill. The Gamecocks still have plenty of talent but there is no denying that UNC has as many offensive weapons as the Gamecocks, an outstanding QB and more returning starters on defense. That’s more than enough for us to step in on the underdog here taking back a juicy 12 points. If you are on board for this one, wait until later in the day because it’s quite possible we will be getting 13 points by game time. We will update this one later on with the price we’re taking back but we are definitely on the pooch here.
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L.A. Angels/TAMPA BAY Over 8½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jason Vargas missed almost two months of action after undergoing surgery on a blood clot. He has made three starts since his return and was whacked in the first two back against the Yanks and Astros, not exactly the cream of the crop. Vargas was solid in his last start but that was at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field in Seattle at a time the Mariners were struggling at the plate. Vargas has made no noticeable skills gains. He's been the same mediocre pitcher four years running and he now faces a Rays’ squad that his second in the majors with a .279 team batting average against southpaws. In eight road starts, Vargas is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 47.1 IP and his chances for success here are slim.
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The fact that Jake Odorizzi is a -152 favorite here strongly suggests that the oddsmakers expect the Rays to score some runs because Odorizzi is surely going to give up something. Odorizzi has made four appearances this season with three of those coming as a starter. He’s allowed 22 hits and 12 runs in 18 innings. He’s also a fly-ball pitcher and that has resulted in three balls leaving the yard and plenty more coming damn close. Odorizzi has a BAA of .297, a WHIP of 1.44 and while he has upside to be sure, he’s not major-league ready yet. He is often guilty of overthrowing and elevating his heater and has been completely inefficient with gunning for Ks as opposed to pitching to contact. He was called up in May to fill-in for David Price and he’s doing the same here, as Price’s start has been pushed back a day. We’re not asking for anything crooked here. Both these offenses are more than capable of putting up some runs while both these pitchers have at least a 50% chance each of blowing up.
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ATLANTA -1½ +156 over ClevelandFFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians offense has checked out a month early. Cleveland has scored twice so far in this series and over their past 15 games they are hitting a putrid .214. Over that aforementioned 15-game stretch, Cleveland has faced a bevy of very mediocre pitchers that include, Mike Pelfrey, Paul Maholm, A.J. Griffin, Liam Hendricks, Nathan Eovaldi and Sam Deduno to name a few. Struggling to hit the ball, the Tribe will now face a pitcher in Atlanta that they have a combined nine AB’s against in their careers. Kris Medlen is shaping himself up for another strong finish. His post-All-Star break skills have been elite with eight K’s per nine innings and just 1.4 walks per 9 IP. Since the break, Medlen also has a 51% groundball rate and everything is his skill set is trending in the right direction. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Medlen has walked just five batters while striking out 24. He has an xERA of 2.96 since the break with a miniscule 25% fly-ball rate.
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Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the rare starters whose skills are much better against opposite-sided batters. Check out his stats and skills vs. LH bats: 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.8/3.4 K/BB per 9 IP, 40% groundball rate. His control falls apart against righties: 4.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and seven walks per nine innings. Atlanta is loaded with right-handed batters and that spells trouble for Jimenez. Jimenez is coming off a 10 K performance against the Twins but trust us when we tell you it was not a thing of beauty. He escaped many jams that day and need 114 pitches to get through six innings. He was constantly behind in the count. Those 114 pitches he threw tied a season high. The last time Jimenez threw 114 pitches, he was whacked for eight hits five innings in his subsequent start while walking three. Cleveland has dropped three of Jimenez’s last four games by scores of 10-0 to Miami, 7-2 to the Angels and 5-1 to the Twinkies. Why should we believe this one to be any different?
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Utah State vs. UtahFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Utah State +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah State’s Keeton is getting lost in that shuffle a little bit, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be. Last year in his first full year as a starter he completed nearly 68% of his passes for almost 3,400 yards with 27 touchdowns and he ran for eight touchdowns in his last seven games. This could be a real coming-out party for Keeton against an imperfect Utah squad, and I’m excited to see what he can do. Five offensive linemen are also back for them. Utah and their defense has to rebuild its front four without DT Star Lotulelei, and it will take time. Utah is young and does not have the talent to stay with Utah State and the points are a bonus here Thursday night.