Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday August, 30

MLB

Detroit at Kansas City
The Royals look to build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100)

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.822; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.802
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.906; Cubs (Raley) 15.253
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); N/A

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.540; Washington (Jackson) 14.068
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-105); Over

Game 957-958: San Francisco at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.568; Houston (Lyles) 13.118
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.146; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.018
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-215); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+185); Over

Game 961-962: Oakland at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.572; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 15.387; Baltimore (Britton) 16.739
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

Game 965-966: Seattle at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 15.194; Minnesota (Duensing) 14.799
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.934; Toronto (Villanueva) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.184; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.211
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Over

Game 971-972: Boston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.679; LA Angels (Greinke) 15.606
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under

WNBA

Connecticut at San Antonio
The Sun look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Connecticut is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+7)

Game 601-602: Indiana at New York (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.444; Washington 109.574
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 150
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-3); Under

Game 603-604: Washington at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 103.829; Atlanta 115.416
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Over

Game 605-606: Connecticut at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.484; San Antonio 116.562
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 155
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 160
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+7); Under

Game 607-608: Los Angeles at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 120.867; Tulsa 107.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 13; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 9 1/2; 164
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-9 1/2); Under

Game 609-610: Phoenix at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 96.841; Seattle 114.214
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 17 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 14; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-14); Under

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South Carolina / Vanderbilt Under 45.5
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I have leaned to the under since this total came out at 46.5 but it's still solid IMO as long as it's at or above the key number of 45. I do think the offenses will be a bit rusty, and am still undecided as to who wins this ATS. Obviously if it's under I do lean Vanderbilt a little, but regardless of that even if the Gamecocks get a lead Spurrier simply is not going to do what he did at Florida, which is air it out. For one thing, they simply don't have the weapons to do so, at least not this early. I get that Vanderbilt has done some great things and return most of their offense, but people failed to realize how stout SC's defense was last year and may be underestimating them this season just because two of their studs, Ingram and Gilmore, are now in the NFL. The Commodores simply lack the talent/depth to go mano a mano here, and unless they've got gimmicks they're just not going to drive the ball. Lastly, since what will then be the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac may well be a factor, the weather could be terrible. That obviously helps "unders" (although I have seen cases where it's a turnover fest in your own territory leading to cheap points) so let's just go ahead and call it now.

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Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State
Play: Eastern Michigan +3.5
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Anytime you get a proven winning coach like Ron English getting points versus a team that is only 2-9 at home the last 3 seasons that is just too good to pass up.Eastern Michigan continues to surprise after getting 6 wins that nobody seen coming last year and they continue to improve.Take Eastern Michigan with bigger,faster,and stronger athletes than they have had in their painful decades of football with a senior quarterback to kickoff your college football season with a freeplay winner.

Wunderdog

Atlanta at Jacksonville
Pick: Atlanta +3

The Jacksonville Jaguars opened NFL exhibition with a pair of wins, but when the dress rehearsal was on in week three vs. the Ravens, they were thrashed 48-17. That's enough to take the life out of a team when you put your best on the field, lose by 31 points, and now face a meaningless game. Mike Mularkey is coaching his third preseason week 4, and he has dropped his last two. So certainly the point of emphasis here is not on winning. The Falcons' week four result last season was very misleading as they were beaten on the scoreboard by Baltimore 21-7. That didn't tell the true story. Atlanta outgained them 343-175, but it was four turnovers that did them in. They doubled-up the Ravens' offensive output, and I think they are going to do the same here to Jacksonvlle with a different ending. Consider that the Falcons have put up narly 400 yards per gaem thus far in these "meaningless" games. Play on Atlanta, getting points that we may not need.

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San Diego vs. San Francisco
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I successfully played the 49ers Over the total last Sunday as they went into Denver and came out a 29-24 winner over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The game sailed past the number for me by a double digit margin as San Francisco eclipsed its scoring output from the previous two games combined! I'm looking for another relatively high scoring affair this Thursday when the team concludes preseason play against the San Diego Chargers.
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Obviously, the final week of preseason is when you expect to see the familiar names the least, but in the case of San Diego, we will be seeing QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates - at least for a little while. That's according to head coach Norv Turner (how does he still have his job?), who wisely decided to sit Rivers last week vs. Minnesota, a 12-10 snoozefest over Minnesota, as the team was missing three starting offensive linemen. Gates did not play either. Despite some relatively "ugly play" this month, the Chargers have found a way to somehow go 3-0 as they've been greatly aided by opponents turnovers (11 of them). While not all of this applies to Turner and the current crop of Chargers, for what it's worth the team is 22-8 Over in preseason action following an Under the previous week.
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San Francisco's second string offense has been producing better than you'd expect and most of the credit goes to QB Colin Kaepernick, last year's 2nd round draft pick out of Nevada. A multi-dimensional threat, Kaepernick is not someone opposing defensive coordinators have been wanting to prepare for and I can't see San Diego offering up much more than a "vanilla" front against him here. Last week vs. the Broncos, Kaepernick came in and immediately did damage with four completions for 80 yards and two runs for 11 yards. I view the 49ers defense as slightly overrated as last week Manning passed for 10.2 yards per attempt. Rivers can do some damage early.

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Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers and Royals wrap up a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium Thursday evening where Rick Porcello takes the mound for Detroit knowing he he cashed in each of his last four team starts in this series, as well as each of his last three in this park. With Porcello in great KW form with 16 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last four starts, look for the Tigers in make in 9 wins in their last 11 games in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

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Bears vs. Browns
Play: Under 37.5
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Top rated total release for the final week of the preseason - One scenario I always look forward to in the preseason is when the Bears and Browns match-up in their final preseason game. This has occurred the past 9 years with the Under going an amazing 7-2. Both organizations just want to get through this game and run run run the ball all game long. So let's jump all over the under in this spot as the odds makers have posted a favorable number for us in this spot.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers bring a very strong offense into Wrigley Field, a great home run park. Milwaukee has Shaun Marcum going, who has a 3.19 ERA fanning 82 in 87 innings. He is 4-0 in his career against the Cubs, 2-0 this season with a 2.77 ERA. He faces a terrible all around Chicago team, one stuck with young pitcher Brooks Raley (1-2, 6.64 ERA). The Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. the National League Central, while the Cubs are 6-20 in their last 26 overall. And the Brewers are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. Play the Brewers.

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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns Aug 30 2012 7:30PM
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
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Cleveland (2-1) lost their first preseason game of the year with their 27-10 loss at home against the Eagles in a game where the first string starters were outscored by a 17-3 margin at halftime. Look for the Browns to bounce-back with a strong effort in front of their home fans as they look to build some momentum for the regular season. Cleveland has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 preseason after failing to score more than a field goal in their last preseason game. Rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden will not play in this game -- but the Browns still have a lively quarterback battle for the backup position between Colt McCoy and Seneca Williams who can both put points up on the board (especially against backup defenders). The loser of this battle will likely be traded or released so except both competitors to be focused for this contest. Cleveland also has a running back battle going on between Monterio Hardesty and Brandon Jackson for the backup job behind Trent Richardson -- so there are plenty of talented and motivated players that will be seeing plenty of action in this preseason game. As it is, the Browns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home preseason games with the Total in the 35.5-38 point range. Chicago (2-1) has won two preseason games in a row after their 20-17 win at New York against the Giants -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 preseason games after two straight exhibition game victories. While the Bears rushed for 94 yards last week on a subpar 3.5 YPC effort against the Giants, the problem for them (and their continually struggling offensive line) is that this was their best rushing effort of the preseason. In exhibition games with vanilla offensive schemes, the failure to run the ball effectively spells trouble relative to the point spread. Furthermore, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 preseason games after a victory by 3 points or less in their previous preseason contest. Lay the points with the Browns in this one.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Florida vs. Akron
Play: Central Florida -23½
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This is a lot of road chalk to be laying, but my system formulas have this as a strong lean and looking over this there is just too much I like. First off Akron is coming in with a completely rebuilt offensive line and they have had lackluster performances in practice. They may have some capable players on offense but we won't know it against an aggressive linebacker led defense from Central Florida. Akron was bottom ten in the nation in rushing, passing, defense against run and pass and came up with just 11 sacks. On defense they lost their do everything LB Brian Wagner.
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Central Florida comes in with a new look and are favorites to win their conference as George O'Leary made a change with the better Blake Bortles and he's got the most talent at the skill positions than ever before with a trio of talented running backs that will be able to have their way with the Akron defense. Overall the speed and athleticism will be too much for an Akron team that brings in a new coach.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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UCF -23.5 over AKRON: Terry Bowden takes over at Akron and he has his work cut out for him as he and new DC Chuck Amato will have to build this team from the ground up, and they don't have many talented players to do this with just now. Controlling the line of scrimmage is huge in both the pros and CFB and that is where the Knights have a HUGE edge. The Zips are very weak across the lines rating as the worst in both departments in the MAC and in the bottom 10 of the country in both departments. They are undersized on both lines and lack depth there as well. Tonight they will be taking on a UCF team that rates as having the best offensive and defensive line in Conference USA. The Knights OL outweights the ZIPS DL by an average of 38 pounds per man and not only are the Zips undersized along the line, but they are starting 2 redshirt freshmen there as well. Last year the Zips allowed 220 ypg on the ground and could allow more than that in this game. The Knights put up just 160 ypg on the ground last year, but did rush for 4.3 ypc, while Akron allowed 4.9 ypc. I really feel that the Knights will have their way with this defense in this one. On offense last year the Zips put up just 12.9 ppg in the MAC and that was vs some bad defenses. They have a big question mark at QB and the OL in not very good and I don't expect them to put much on the board vs this UCF defense that rates as the top defense in Conference USA. I know that UCF has Ohio State on deck and may not show their full hand here, But I still feel that they have more than enough to win this one by at least 28 points.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ball State/ Eastern Michigan Over 59: This will be a fun game to watch. Last year these teams put up 64 points and I expect more of the same In this one. both of these offense are stronger than last year, while both defenses are weaker. The Eastern Michigan Eagles put up just 21.3 ppg last year, but they have 9 starters back and 24 of 29 lettermen so I will look for this team to be more explosive this year. This team is loaded at the skill positions as they have all of their ball carriers back from last year and 5 of their top 6 pass caters, plus SR QB Alex Gillett who should have a much better year than last year. The OL also returns 4 of 5 starters and rates as the 2nd best in the league.The Ball State spread offense put up 25.3 ppg last year and with 8 starters returning from that group they should be even better offensively this year. E. Michigan on defense allowed just 24.3 ppg last year, but they only bring back 5 starters and they lose some key players from last year. Defensive end Andy Malumba is the only returning player from the front four. Cy Maughmer and Travis Linser are the projected starting interior defensive linemen despite their lack of any collegiate game experience and that will make it hard to put pressure on Ball State QB Kieth Wenning. Last year Ball State allowed 510 ypg and 34.7 ppg, and with just 5 starters, 12 of 22 lettermen and 1 of their top 5 tacklers back this unit will struggle once again. Both offenses will score plenty in this one and there is always the chance for OT as well as the last 3 in the series has been decided by 3 or less points. Look for the mid 60's in this one.

ParlayJoe

Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 Thursday night baseball games and also 7-1 in Porcellos last 8 road starts versus a team with a losing record. We love the match-up here and our play is on the Detriot Tigers at -110.

Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA -15FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This may seem like a big number to lay on UCLA, especially considering the Bruins are just 8-27 on the road over the last six seasons. With that said, this is a new era at UCLA.
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New head coach Jim Mora is the real deal. The Bruins didn't just get a great head coach. I'm really excited about the additions of offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and defensive coordinator Lou Spanos. Mazzone spent the last two years at Arizona St. The Sun Devils were coming off back-to-back seasons where they averaged just under 23 ppg (22.8 & 22.3). In his two years at Arizona St, the offense put up 32.3 & 33.2 ppg. Spanos is a disciple of the great Pittsburgh Steelers defenses of the last two decades, having spent 15 seasons as an assistant there. He spent the last two years as the linebackers coach for the Washington Redskins, and I expect him to make some big improvements to the UCLA defense in his first year.
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UCLA decided to go with red-shirt freshman Brett Hundley over returning starters Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut at quarterback. This should certainly tell you something about what Mora and Mazzone think of Hundley. The kid has all kinds of talent and they really like the athleticism he brings to the table. When a play doesn't go as planned, Hundley will be able to use his speed and ability to make something happen on his own.
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They big key to this game is the lack of talent the Owls have coming back in 2012. With just 10 starters total, five on each side of the ball, this is clearly a rebuilding season for Rice. What really sticks out to me, is the fact that the Owls have just one starter back on both the offensive and defensive line. Look for UCLA to dominate the trenches, which in turn should allow them to completely dominate this game and cover the 15-point spread. The Bruins should be able to establish the run and Hundley figures to have all day to throw the football. I expect UCLA to score at will in this game, which is what you have to have in order to cover a spread this big.

MTi Sports

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

The Twins are 17-0 (+3.7 rpg) as a home favorite when they are off a shut out win, as long as they were not a 150+ favorite in that win. Consider laying the price with Minnesota.