Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals at Nationals
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St. Louis entered Pittsburgh on a "heater," but left without scoring a run over their last 21 innings of action. I believe they're going to have a rough time scoring runs again. Edwin Jackson takes the bump for the Nats and the righty has posted a 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .217 BAA in 10 home starts this season. Jackson has allowed just 15 earned runs and 52 base runners in his last seven starts, overall, spanning 46 1/3 IP. The Redbirds will counter with Jaime Garcia. The lefty has allowed just 2 walks and 1 home run in two starts since returning to the rotation. He'll face a Nats' lineup averaging just 3.9 rpg in home night games against southpaws. St. Louis is on a 5-0 Under run when Garcia throws on four days rest, while the Nationals are on a 5-1 Under run when Jackson starts on five days rest. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Cards & Nats on Thursday.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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They Rays have Dominated the Jays winning 9 of the 11 games this season. They are averaging over 7 runs per game here and have won 10 of the last 15 vs teams under .500. Toronto has lost 8 of 10 as a home dog from +125 to +150 and are hitting .221 the past week. Tampa Bay is 27-4 if they are favored by -120 or more and lost by one run in their starters last appearance if they scored 2 or less runs in that loss and the starter has six or less days rest. Toronto has Villanueva on the mound tonight and Tampa has hit him hard in his 2 starts against them. He has a 11.42 era vs Tampa Bay. They Rays counter with Matt Moore. In his 2 starts vs the Jays Moore has a solid 2.53 era winning both starts. Look for the Rays to Clip the Jays tonight.
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Detroit vs. Kansas City
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Detroit has lost the first two games of this series and it cannot afford to get swept by the Royals tonight. The Tigers trail Chicago by three games in the American League Central with a three-game home series starting tomorrow against the White Sox and they need to head in there with some momentum. Detroit had won seven of the first eight meetings this year against Kansas City and the Tigers are now still 21-8 in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record. Rick Porcello looks to stop the bleeding and while his year has been pretty up and down, he is coming off consecutive quality outings for the first time since the end of June. He tossed a quality start in his only game against the Royals this season and in two trips to Kansas City last year, he posted a 3.09 ERA. The Royals are riding that two-game winning streak and they have now won five straight games at home while going 8-1 over their last nine at Kaufman Stadium. This is actually helping us out with the price and it is hard to overlook the fact that Kansas City is still five games under .500 at home on the season. Jeremy Guthrie was absolutely horrible at the end of his Colorado stint and the start of his time for the Tigers but he then tossed four straight quality starts to begin August including the final three where he allowed no runs. It was not long lasting as he was tagged for seven runs in just 2.2 innings against the Red Sox last time out. Guthrie is 0-2 with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts against Detroit.
Bryan PowerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego vs. San Francisco
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I successfully played the 49ers Over the total last Sunday as they went into Denver and came out a 29-24 winner over Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The game sailed past the number for me by a double digit margin as San Francisco eclipsed its scoring output from the previous two games combined! I'm looking for another relatively high scoring affair this Thursday when the team concludes preseason play against the San Diego Chargers.
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Obviously, the final week of preseason is when you expect to see the familiar names the least, but in the case of San Diego, we will be seeing QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates - at least for a little while. That's according to head coach Norv Turner (how does he still have his job?), who wisely decided to sit Rivers last week vs. Minnesota, a 12-10 snoozefest over Minnesota, as the team was missing three starting offensive linemen. Gates did not play either. Despite some relatively "ugly play" this month, the Chargers have found a way to somehow go 3-0 as they've been greatly aided by opponents turnovers (11 of them). While not all of this applies to Turner and the current crop of Chargers, for what it's worth the team is 22-8 Over in preseason action following an Under the previous week.
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San Francisco's second string offense has been producing better than you'd expect and most of the credit goes to QB Colin Kaepernick, last year's 2nd round draft pick out of Nevada. A multi-dimensional threat, Kaepernick is not someone opposing defensive coordinators have been wanting to prepare for and I can't see San Diego offering up much more than a "vanilla" front against him here. Last week vs. the Broncos, Kaepernick came in and immediately did damage with four completions for 80 yards and two runs for 11 yards. I view the 49ers defense as slightly overrated as last week Manning passed for 10.2 yards per attempt. Rivers can do some damage early.
Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Chicago White Sox
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The 72-57 White Sox are in Baltimore for game 4 of their 4 game Series with the 71-58 Orioles on Thursday. The White Sox give the rock to 5-2 Quintana while 3-1 Britton gets the nod for Baltimore. Quintana starts his day with a 2.86 ERA Overall giving up 35 earned runs in 110 innings of work and allowing 27 BB's while striking out 62. On the other side of the diamond, Britton begins the day with a 5.59 ERA giving up 23 earned runs in 37 innings pitched allowing 21 BB and recording 28 K's. The Orioles are 1-4 in Britton's last 5 Starts as a Favorite. The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 Overall games and 4-1 in their last 5 games as a Favorite. The White Sox win easily Today.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -154
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At 62-69 on the season, the Boston Red Sox have essentially packed it in. They've lost seven of their last 10 games overall and traded away three of their best players. This team is clearly looking ahead to next season.
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At 68-62 on the year, the Los Angeles Angels have a lot still to play for. They are doing their part in making a push for the postseason of late, winning six of their last eight games overall.
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Zach Greinke is having yet another solid season, going 11-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in 27 starts this year, including 5-2 with a 3.34 and 1.073 WHIP in 11 home starts. Greinke has also had solid success in five career starts against Boston, posting a 3.03 ERA and 1.255 WHIP.
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Jon Lester has been a big reason why the Red Sox have struggled all season. The left-hander is 8-10 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 26 starts this year. He was supposed to be their ace coming into 2012.
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Greinke is 16-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. Greinke is 25-3 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in all home games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Angels Thursday.
Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA vs Rice
Pick UCLA
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Rice never has many athletes, and that has not changed. Their experience equaled opportunism last season, but this is now one of the greener teams in the land. UCLA could be pretty good if they master the new offense and avoid stupid turnovers. Bruins ought to roll here.
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Boston Red Sox +149
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The Angels are going for the sweep here, a spot in which they have been a terrible investment. LA simply has trouble vs a team they have beaten. The Angels are a horrific 8-24 at night game vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. on the average, LA was minus-132 on the moneyline in these 32 games. If we insist that they are a 120-plus favorite, LA is 1-11 with their only win coming when Jered Weaver beat the Twins as a 240 favorite.
Note that in their last four they never even held the lead and they were significant favorites in each.
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In addition, the Angels are 0-5 THIS season at home vs an AL foe that is seeking immediate revenge for a five-plus run loss.
Note that EVERY loss was by multiple runs and that they were an average of minus 154 on the moneyline.
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In Lester's last outing, he battled the Royals for seven innings and the Sox came away with a 4-3 win. All the signs are positive, as Boston is 14-1 with Lester when he is off a win in which he faced thirty-plus hitters.
Note that his only loss came back in 2008 on the road vs Roy Halladay.
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Lester walked four batters vs the Royals and he recovers nicely from this type of problem. The Red Sox are 25-4 in franchise history with Lester when he is off a start in which he allowed at least four walks.
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Finally, the Angels are 0-4 with Greinke as a favorite vs a team that has averaged seven-plus strikeouts per game season-to-date. The Sox have the line value here.
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MTi's FORECAST: Boston 4 LA ANGELS 3
JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tigers / Royals Under 9
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At 8:10 PM EST tonight we have the Detroit Tigers (69-59& 30-33 road) visiting the KC Royals (57-71 & 27-33 home). Both teams send out pitchers with bulbous ERA. Detroit (Porcello 4.60) and KC (Guthrie 5.71 ERA) with a combined record of 14-21. So your thinking that likely this means over the total of "9" for tonight, right? The answer is NO because in his last "5" games in "31+" innings pitched, Guthrie has allowed "9" earned runs, and that includes one bad night of six and "3" shutouts. Porcello is inconsistent, but we still believe in the UNDER here!
Wunderdog
Eastern Michigan at Ball State
Pick: Eastern Michigan +3.5
The Eastern Michigan Eagles have pretty much been an automatic win for opponents for quite some time. This is a team that won four games or less, and a total of 42 games over the last 15 years. That is less than three per season. Last year they went 6-6 for the first time since the 1995-96 season, and may have turned the corner. They have a lot back from that team, including QB Alex Gillet who passed for over 1500 yards, and ran for another 700+. He also cut down his INTs from 13 to 7. He should continue to improve. Ball State has not been very impressive since their big year, winning no more than six over the last three seasons. They could likely be improved this season, but Eastern Michigan is starting from a higher place, and have already learned how to play on the road, at 6-2 ATS in their last eight. The Cardinals have no magic at home where they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21. Take the points on Eastern Michigan.
DAVID BANKS
BYU -11.5
Controversial former Texas Tech Coach Mike Leach is now the new head man of the Washington State Cougars, but his first game at the helm is a tough one vs. the BYU Cougars Thursday night from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT at 10:15 ET on ESPN. This Battle of the Cougars features two teams that figure to be on the opposite end of the spectrum, as Leach will be implementing his offense on a Wazzou team that went 4-8 last season while BYU is looking for bigger things following a nice 10-3 campaign.
The BYU offense returns seven starters on offense, with those being senior quarterback Riley Skinner, his top three receivers from last season and three members of the offensive line. The one major loss on that offensive line was four-year starter Matt Reynolds, but the passing game should still be successful as long as Skinner stays healthy. Skinner split time with Jake Heaps last year, yet he still managed to throw for over 1700 yards on only 116 attempts (8.5 YPA) with 19 touchdowns passes, and having all of his favorite targets back helps. The running game needs to replace Josh Quezada and J.J. Di Luigi, but that duo only combined to rush for 882 yards last year. Junior Michael Alisa now tops the depth chart after averaging 5.4 yards per carry as a sophomore, and he could end up being an upgrade after all is said and done. The BYU defense also returns seven players including five starters on the back seven, which is significant because that defense ranked 32nd nationally against the pass last season, permitting only 200.9 passing yards per game.
Thus, this seems like a difficult defense for the pass-happy Leach to make his debut against. The good news is that although Washington State won only four games in 2011, at least the offense returns seven starters including last year's leading receiver Marquess Wilson, who accounted for over 1400 receiving yards. One player not returning is quarterback Marshall Lobbestael, but new starter Jeff Tuel is a senior that completing 64.4 percent of his attempts in limited action in 2011. Leach went through quite a few quarterbacks in his days with the Red Raiders, and almost all of them put up great passing numbers in his system without having much success in the NFL. The big question thus becomes how quickly Washington State can learn the system, and whether the players he inherited are the right fit. Perhaps we should wait for Leach's first major recruiting class in the next year or two to proclaim whether his hiring was a stroke of genius or a mistake. Wazzou also returns seven starters on the defensive side, but after allowing 31.8 points per game last year and ranking 82nd in total defense surrendering 410 yards per contest, is that a good thing?
BYU was an underrated team last year that finished 9-4 ATS, bringing it to 16-5 ATS in the last 21 games overall. Washington State went a rather surprising 7-5 ATS despite the losing record, probably because it was a big underdog so much and it is now 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog of +10 or more.
Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: New York Mets
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The Mets are going for the sweep and for the fifth in a row and fight to stay out of the basement and just enjoy beating up on their rival. The Mets have Jonathon Niese who is a 10 game winner and is 2-0 in four starts against the Phillies as he allowed just seven runs in those four starts. Philadelphia counters with Kyle Kendrick who is under .500 on the year at 7-9 and has an era over 19 against the Mets and a batting average against over .450. Look for the Mets to spank Kendrick around . . . again and Neise to cast his spell of the woeful Phillies. Play NY Mets
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San Francisco vs. Houston
Pick: San Francisco
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The Giants' (73-57) Ryan Vogelsong (11-7, 2.90 ERA) is set to square off against the Astros' (40-90) Jordan Lyles (3-10, 5.47 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Vogelsong got back on track in his last start, and I look for the big right-hander to carry that momentum over into this contest; Vogelsong gave up three runs off four hits over 6 1/3's frames of work in his team's eventual 5-3 win over the Braves on Friday; he struck out five and walked one. Note that Vogelsong has been particularly effective on the road this year, going 5-3 with a respectable 3.47 ERA thus far.
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Lyles is coming off his first win since June 26th, giving up one run off three hits in his team's 3-1 win over the Mets last Friday; he struck out four and walked two. I'm going to caution reading too much into that anomalous effort though, as the beleaguered 21-year old had gone 0-6 with a brutal 6.79 ERA over his previous nine starts. Note that home field advantage has been anything but for Lyles this year, going 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.15 ERA in nine outings at Minute Maid Park.
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San Francisco is in a race to the end right now, so picking up victories that it's "supposed" to, is obviously crucial at this stage of the season.
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Houston continues its spiral down the proverbial crapper, having hit just two long-balls over its last six games, while losing four straight and 11 of 12 overall.
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You'll want to keep your eyes on the Giants' Hunter Pence, who is hitting .370 with four home runs in seven games vs. the Astros.
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I feel Vogelsong is well worth the price of admission in this matchup; how about you?
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Kansas City -1½ over GREEN BAY
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There’s a reason that the Chiefs are favored in Green Bay for the final warm up before the regular season kicks off. The Packers couldn’t give a rat’s behind about this game while the Chiefs need to do something positive this preseason to provide some confidence.
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The Chiefs have allowed 74 points against in the past two pre-season games against Seattle and St. Louis respectively. They’ve looked awful in both games and they surely don’t want to drag that kind of stench into the regular season. Expect the starters to play longer than Green Bay’s.
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The real kicker here is Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. Since he arrived in Green Bay, the Packers are 1-5 straight up in the final preseason game. The Packers showed nothing in the first two preseason games but in the all-important third preseason game against Cinci last week they cruised to a 14-point win. That’s more than enough for McCarthy, who will use Aaron Rodgers and company for one series and that’s it. The Chiefs are obviously not supposed to be favored in Green Bay but the fact that they are is information that should not be ignored.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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VANDERBILT +6½ +100 over South Carolina
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Right off the bat, in a televised ESPN Thursday night college opener, we see a ranked team as a road favorite against an unranked opponent. The Gamecocks come in as the #9 rated club in the nation. Coach Steve Spurrier is an incredible 21-1 all-time in season openers as a head coach. South Carolina also set a school record for wins last season with 11. With Spurrier coaching, with momentum carrying over from last year and with one of the best backs in the nation in Marcus Lattimore returning from a season ending knee injury (he hasn’t played in a year), there is a lot of hype and big predictions for the Gamecocks. Such sentiment has inflated this number.
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Vanderbilt was just 6-7 a year ago but they aren’t without talent. They too have a stud running back, as Zac Stacy rushed for 1,193 yards and scored 14 TDs, while averaging six yards per attempt. QB Jordan Rodgers also returns. You may have heard of his brother, as his brother Aaron is the starting QB for the Green Bay Packers. The Commodores went 5-2 against the number when Rodgers started last year. In those games, Vandy averaged 31 points. Aaron has been working extensively with Jordan this past summer. The left side of the offensive line returns intact and defensively, the Commodores should be in decent shape with seven starters back. The Commodores went 7-0 at home against the spread a year ago. They have experience and talent on both sides of the ball.
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NCAA football provides opportunities, such as this one, to fade overhyped ranked teams playing on the road against unranked opponents, especially early. An upset would not surprise but we’ll gladly accept the generous points being offered.
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N.Y. Mets +100 over PHILADELPHIA
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The Mets have suddenly come to life. After a string of nine games in which they scored 15 runs, they’ve scored 12 in the last two here. New York has remarkably won 10 of 14 games between these two this year, outscoring Philly 81-65 in those contests. In addition, the Mets have now won four straight.
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Jonathon Niese is quickly becoming one of the most reliable and consistent pitchers in the game and yet, few talk about him. He’s pitched seven full innings or more in nine of his past 11 starts. He’s walked just 40 batters all year while striking out 134 in 159 frames. His skills, which primarily consist of control, groundball % and strikeout rate has increased each season over the past four years. Niese’s ERA is 3.51, which is right in line with his xERA of 3.46. Niese is 4-1 in day games with a 2.85 ERA and a BAA of .213.
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The Phillies are 16-23 against southpaws. Kyle Kendrick is just one of those pitchers that is good enough to round out a rotation but will never dominate. He comes in with a 7-9 overall record and a 3-6 mark with a 4.76 ERA at home. With runners on base, he really struggles with a .295 BAA as oppose to a BAA of .209 with the bases empty.
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Oakland/ Cleveland Under 8.5: Cleveland is still having some big problems scoring. The Tribe has scored just 2 runs in the first three games of the series and have been held to 1 run or less in 7 of their last 10 games, averaging just 1.5 rpg over that stretch. Thisd is not a good offense right now and will have problems scoring on Jarod Parker, who has pitched very well for the A's this year. He doe have a 5.04 ERA on the road, but in his lone start vs the Tribe this year he allowed 0 ER's in 8 innings of work. Even though the Tribe hasn't been scoring of late their pitching hasn't been all that bad, allowing just 4.6 rpg in their last 10 games. Their weak pen has been solid of late with a 3.34 ERA in the last 10 games and they should also get a good start out of Masterson, who has a 3.14 ERA at home and has allowed 2 ER's or less in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. Justin did get shelled vs Oakland last week but the pen came in and shut down the Oakland bats and just 7 total runs were scored in the game. The A's have a pen ERA of 0.72 in their last 10 games and shouldn't allow late runs in this one, while Oakland's offense should struggle vs Masterson today.
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Angels/ Boston Over 7.5: The Angels have feasted of Boston pitching this year, averaging 8.4 rpg vs them in the 5 games played so far. Overall the Angels come in averaging 6 rpg in their last 10 games and they have averaged 4.3 rpg at home on the year. For LA it hasn't been their hitting that has them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, but it has been the pitching that has the worst ERA since the break. In their last 10 games the Halos have a 5.26 ERA overall, including a 5.06 ERA form their pen. Zach Greinke has not pitched well for LA since the trade, as he has a 5.22 ERA overall and a 5.40 ERA at home. Zach also has a 4.57 ERA at night for the Halos, with those games averaging 10.7 rpg, while his home starts have averaged 9.3 rpg. John Lester has been pitching well lately and he does have a 2.99 ERA on the road, but he does struggle at night with a 5.04 ERA and 9.1 rpg being scored in those games and as stated above, he will be taking on a hot offense. The Boston offense has been hot as well, as they come in averaging 5.4 rpg in their last 10 games, while their pitching has also struggled, allowing 6.6 rpg over the same stretch. These teams have really gone at this year with a lot of runs being scored (13.8 rpg) and I see more of the same tonight.
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St Louis/ Washington Under 8: This is a big 4 games series for these two teams and I feel it will have to be won by pitching as the offenses are struggling right now. The Cards come in having been shut out in their last 2 games, while Washington has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Jaime Garcia has struggled on the road this year but I see him having a good showing tonight vs a Washington team that has averaged just 2.8 rpg in their last 10 games. Jaime also has 3 career starts vs the Nats and has allowed just 3 totals ER's in those starts. Edwin Jackson has pitched well vs the Cards as he has a 3.46 ERA in 4 career starts vs them. Jackson has pitched very well at home with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP and his home starts this year have averaged just 6.9 rpg. We also have a couple of pens that have been pitching well, as the Cards have a 2.05 ERA in their last 10 games, while the Nats pen ERA is 2.16 over the same stretch. I look for pitching to dominate hitting tonight.