River City Sharps
Baltimore Orioles +104
The Toronto Blue Jays try and get a game closer to the lead in the AL East tonight as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the final game of their three-game set. The Orioles will give the ball to Miguel Gonzalez (5-6, 3.93) to be opposed by the Jays J.A. Happ (8-5, 4.34) The Jays took a 5-1 decision on Wednesday night, but these teams have seemingly been moving in different directions over the past couple of weeks. The Orioles have been red hot and have been playing particularly well on the road, winning five of their last seven games. Showalter's team has been pretty solid in bouncing back off a loss this season, posting a 35-16 record in their last 51 games following a loss. Thursday's have been good as well for Gonzalez as the Orioles are 7-1 in Gonzalez's last eight Thursday starts and 4-1 in his last five games as the road dog. We expect the Orioles to get another bounce back win here tonight.
Steve Rosen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -130
The Pittsburgh Pirates are down one All-Star with Andrew McCutchen banged up, but another, Josh Harrison, is doing his best to pick up the slack. Harrison looks to extend his hitting streak to 11 games when the Pirates host the Miami Marlins in the rubber match of their three-game series on Thursday. Harrison has recorded multiple hits in six of his last 10 games and went 3-for-4 with a pair of runs scored as Pittsburgh grabbed a 7-3 win on Wednesday!The Pirates are in the middle of a pair of playoff races as they trail first-place Milwaukee by 1 1/2 games in the National League Central while sitting one-half game behind St. Louis for the second wild-card spot. The Marlins are three games below .500 and have dropped five of their last seven to make their fledgling postseason chances seem even more unlikely. The offense is the big problem at the moment for Miami, which has scored more than three runs once in its last seven contests and sits 6 1/2 games behind first-place Washington in the NL East.
Flynn was recalled on Tuesday when the team designated Jacob Turner for assignment and will be making his first major-league start of the season and the fifth of his career. The 24-year-old came out of the bullpen against Oakland is his lone previous major-league appearance of 2014 on June 27 and was reached for two runs on four hits in three innings. His stats are awful his entire career and will shit the bed tonight! There is no doubt in my mind.On the other side Volquez allowed a total of three earned runs in 30 innings over his four starts prior to the All-Star break but has not been able to find that form since returning to action.I see him returning to his old form tonight! Volquez never has lost to Miami, going 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA in six career starts.
Chase Diamond
NY Yankees +113
This game has the 62-49 Tigers and the 59-54 Yankees. We have ridden the Yankees for 3 straight wins and I'm confident in them finishing off the sweep today they are red hot right now and believe they can make the playoffs.Shane Greene has been very strong in his first 5 starts and I think this line looks fishy Vegas is trying to get as much Tigers action as possible early and it's working as 68% are backing them yet the line has moved 9 cents the wrong way showing major sharp action on the Yanks.
EZWINNERS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2
Carolina had a great turn around season last year posting a 12-4 record, but I expect regression this season. Since 2002 there have been thirty six teams that posted ten or more wins following a losing season like the Panthers did last year and out of those thirty six teams, twenty nine of them regressed by at least one win the following year. Carolina is a whole different team on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Cam Newton had off season ankle surgery and he has a whole new cast of receivers to get used to playing with since Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn are all gone. Carolina will be counting on a rookie, Calvin Benjamin who is still very raw to be their top receiver. To make matters worse, the Panthers already shaky offensive line will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross who has retired. Tampa Bay is a team on the rise. New head coach Lovie Smith will improve a Tampa Bay defense that was near the bottom of the league last season. Star cornerback Darrelle Revis is gone, but Tampa Bay snagged two of the top defensive free agents with defensive end Michael Johnson from Cincinnati and cornerback Alterraun Verner from Tennessee who is a better fit in Lovie Smith's zone defense. The Bucs also added defensive tackle Clinton McDonald from the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Offensively I also expect the Bucs to be much improved after finishing at the bottom of the league in total offense last year. Former Bear's quarterback Josh McCown will be under center after a huge year as a backup to Jay Cutler last season. McCown had a lot of success last year throwing to big receivers in Chicago and that is exactly what he will have here in Tampa with Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans along with rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Bucs will also have a healthy running back in third year player Doug Martin who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and also Charles Sims who has a diverse skill set coming out of the backfield. The Buc's offensive line will also be improved with the addition of center Evan Dietrich-Smith and left tackle Anthony Collins. Carolina had one of the best defensive units in the league last year, but if their offense struggles to move the ball and keep them off the field they won't be nearly as effective this season. The Panthers defense also suffered losses in the secondary as Mike Mitchell ( signed with Pittsburgh) is a critical loss at safety and Captain Munnerlyn's (signed with Minnesota) presence will be especially missed in the slot. Also star defensive end Greg Hardy added to the off season distractions as he was arrested following an alleged incident of domestic violence and there is a good chance he won't play in this game. This also a very bad technical spot for the Panthers as playoff teams laying points in week one against a non playoff team have been huge money burners. This is a big home game for the Bucs and Lovie Smith to get off to a good start and Carolina has lost their first road game of the season the last five years. I like Tampa in this one. Take the points.
Green Bay Packers +5.5
I really like the Packers on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs to kick off the new season. Its not about the Packers remembering Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson throwing an interception to win the game, even though that will be on their minds, I really like the spot for Green Bay. The new enforcement of contact in the secondary will not affect any team more than the Seahawks and their physical "Legion of Boom" defense. Early in the season the refs will be calling this early and often and going up against Aaron Rodgers will really make this new enforcement magnified. The Packers ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring last season despite a rash of major injuries that included quarterback Aaron Rodgers himself missing multiple games. If they stay healthy they should be one of the top three offense's in the league. Seattle will once again be one of the top teams in the NFL. On offense they lost quarterback Russell Wilson's go to receiver in Golden Tate who signed with the Lions. Percy Harvin is healthy for now, but doesn't have the chemistry with Wilson just yet. I really like a focused Packers team plus the points in this spot against a Seattle team that will be enjoying their Super Bowl rings tonight. Take the points.
Jeff Clement
Boston Red Sox vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -180
The Red Sox are 2-6 last 8 road games and 0-5 last 5 Workman starts. The Cardinals are 12-4 last 16 Wainwright home starts as a favorite and Wainwright leads the league in victories this year in the N.L. I expect the Cardinals to win this rubber game match tonight behind the pitching of Wainwright and stay within 2 games of the lead for the Central Division.
Tony Stoffo
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7
Strong release on the under in this spot between the Mets and Nationals with Jacob deGrom matching up with Jordan Zimmermann here today. deGrom in this last 3 starts in 20+ innings had a 1.31 ERA with a 0.82 WHIP Zimmermann in his last 3 starts in 19 innings had a 2.84 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP Umpire Trend for today - 9 of last 11 Iassogna games calling balls and strikes have stayed the posted under.
Joe D'Amico
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
In a potential February meeting, these two teams are considered the "odds-on" favorites to meet in the Super Bowl. They are the only two teams at the moment touted to win 11 regular season games. Granted, the NFC has a few more "elite" teams, but just the same, these two squads are the ones with bulls eye's on their backs. In the rematch of Super Bowl 48, remember that this isn't the Super Bowl. Rumors have it that some starters will see some action here but looking at last year's exhibition play, we see that Denver was 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, not showing too much until Games 3 and 4 when starters got more playing time. Seattle and HC, Pete Carroll put a lot of stock in the pre-season as was evident in LY's play when the Seahawks went 4-0 both SU and ATS, averaging 27.5 PPG and yielding just 9 PPG. This is the time of year that I put value in the depth of a team at key positions. Seattle comes into camp as one of the most-loaded squads in the NFL. No doubt about it, Denver has playmakers but Seattle has an abundance of solid and established QB's, RB's, and WR's that are still vying for backup roles and possibly leapfrog over others. They also possess a deep "D" that consists of a slew of "B" team players that could start for any team in the League. The success of the Broncos lives and dies with Peyton Manning. HC, John Fox will not put his star in harm's way. The Broncos also run a bit thin after their "A" team. I feel that the combination of Pete Carroll's wanting to win (especially here) in the pre-season and the fact that the Seahawks have more depth makes me side with them under a FG. Take Seattle. Thank you. Ensure yourself a winning pre-season by taking advantage of all my releases and discounted packages right here.
Steve Janus
Pittsburgh Pirates -149
This is a great spot to back the Pirates at home. Pittsburgh got a big confidence builder last night with a 7-3 win to even up the series at 1-1. I see no reason why the Pirates won't build on that victory given tonight's pitching matchup. Pittsburgh's Edinson Volquez hasn't been great this season, but he comes in having allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last two starts and is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA over 6 career starts against the Marlins. On top of that the Pirates are 7-1 at home against Miami over the last 3 seasons.
One of the big keys to backing Pittsburgh on Thursday is that the Marlins will be starting Brian Flynn, who they would rather use in long relief. Flynn is being forced into the rotation after Jarred Cosart had to be scratched from his start with a sore oblique. Flyn hasn't been impressive when given the chance. He allowed 2 runs in 3 innings of relief back on June 27 and had an awful 8.50 ERA during 4 starts last year.
Key Trends/System - Volquez is 23-11 in his last 34 home starts against a team who strikes out 7+ times per game, 18-5 in his last 23 starts versus NL teams who are hitting .255 or worse as a team and 5-0 in his last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is also 21-8 in their last 29 home games as a favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing record. Add it up and that's a 74-25 (75%) system telling us to BET THE PIRATES -149!
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -126
The Reds are showing excellent value as a small home favorite Thursday against the Indians. Cincinnati has won back-to-back games over Cleveland in impressive fashion. They won 9-2 in Cleveland on Tuesday and 8-3 at home last night. I look for the Reds to stay hot at the plate and secure their 3rd straight victory and 7th consecutive win at home over the Indians behind Homer Bailey. In his last 3 starts Bailey has been lights out, posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Cleveland will counter with T.J. House, who has really struggled when taking the mound away from home. In 6 starts on the road, House has an ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.626 WHIP.
The Indians are just 9-26 in their last 35 interleague road games against a team with a winning record, while the Reds are 22-8 in their last 30 during game 4 of a series and 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
There's also a great system in play based on Cincinnati's recent offensive explosion. Teams with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 38-13 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Reds.
MLB Predictions
Milwaukee Brewers -132
The Giants and Brewers have split the first two meetings of this series, with Milwaukee taking the first 4-3 and San Fran winning 7-4 last night. The Giants will send newly acquired Jake Peavy to the mound who is 1-11 on the season with a 4.73 ERA, .267 OBA and 1.38 WHIP. He went 6.1 innings without giving up a hit in his last outing before allowing 4 hits and 4 earned runs over 7 innings in a loss vs the Mets. On the road this year he is 1-7 with a 5.80 ERA, and he has given up 3 or more earned runs against in 4 straight starts. Willy Peralta will take the rubber for the Brewers and he is 13-6 with a 3.52 ERA, .258 OBA and 1.28 WHIP on the year. At home his ERA rises slightly to 3.82, but his OBA and WHIP are better at home with a .254 OBA and 1.21 WHIP. Since a very rough outing on July 8th he has allowed just 5 earned runs against over his last 4 starts. Take note that the Giants are just 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a home favorite, 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 starts, 4-1 in his last 5 home starts, and 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs a team with a winning record. The Brewers are also 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs the Giants and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings overall. Peralta has been pitching well lately, and I will back him and the Brewers at home this afternoon.
Detroit Tigers -115
Looking at this game I don't feel like the price is where it should be. I think Porcello is being a little bit disrespected with it. As I stated not that long ago, Porcello was on the edge of making the All-Star game and perhaps had a case for it. Porcello enters with a 3.18 ERA this afternoon and has been even stronger on the road with a 2.73 ERA and 8-2 record. He follows with a 1.09 WHIP and .280 away from home. Porcello went on a marvelous stretch, giving up no runs over three games and then he got blitzed for 7 runs. However, what I find impressive is the way he's respond after that game, not allowing more than 3 runs in any given start. Included in that was 1 run, 3, 0, and 2 allowed. His ERA was a sub 2.00 during that stretch, and his WHIP was 0.77 with a .215 OBP. On the other side Yankees' starter Shane Greene has been in all kinds trouble in his brief five games in the rotation. The ERA is okay at 3.68, but take notice of all of the runners he's been allowing to reach base safely. Most notably at home, where his WHIP is all the way up at 1.45 and he also has a .340 OBP. Greene's ERA is also much higher at Yankee Stadium, 5.73 ERA compared to 2.45 on the road. The Tigers dropped 2-1 from the Yankees so far in this series and I would be surprised to see them only take one. They have an excellent shot at splitting under these circumstances with Porcello going up against Greene. As I said I believe this price should be steeper, so ill gladly put my money on the Tigers in this spot.
Wunderdog
New York @ Washington
Pick: Washington -152
The Washington Nationals have opened up a four game lead in the NL East, and they will take on the New York Mets in afternoon action. The Mets will go with Jacob deGrom, who will be looking to win for the sixth straight time, although he will be matched against one of the best in Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has been very impressive at home as a favorite where he has led the Nats to a 27-10 mark in his last 37 starts in this role. What is most impressive within these numbers is that the Nats have averaged winning these games by a combined score of 5.6 to 3.3, or by over 2 runs per contest. The Mets have not responded well on the road when facing a team over .500 where they are 3-7 in their last 10, and behind Zimmermann to a line of -151 to -200, the Nationals are an amazing 20-3 in their last 23. Take Washington.
DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO CUBS AT COLORADO ROCKIES
PLAY: CHICAGO CUBS -113
Let’s get the trend out of the way at the outset. Pitchers making their Coors debuts are not generally good bets. This ballpark can do a real psyche job on even the best arms in the game. Plus, the Rockies have over the years been a rather inhospitable host, so generally speaking, looking to fade the Coors first-timers have been profitable.
Nevertheless, while this is the Coors baptismal fire for Cubs rookie Kyle Hendricks, I like his chances today. Hendricks is probably pitching a little over his head right now, which is not especially unusual for rooks that hitters haven’t seen. Hendricks is going to be a decent big league starter, but I think the buzz about him being a potential front line guy are a bit over the top. He just doesn’t fit that profile, although I suppose anything is possible. But this is a pitch to contact hurler who will do well when he gets lots of grounders, and will probably struggle when he doesn’t. I don’t see the swing and miss rates to be good enough for Hendricks to be an ace or even a deuce. But a solid innings eater in the 3 or 4 slot absolutely looks reasonable.
So maybe I am not as high as some on Hendricks, but I sure like him a whole lot better than Johan Flande. The Rockies rookie doesn’t really look to me like a pitcher who belongs on a 25-man big league roster. The stuff just isn’t good enough, and the fact that Flande is already 28 pretty much eliminates the ceiling being very high. Flande is pitching for the big club because they ran out of arms and ended up literally having to raid the back end of their AAA team’s rotation. That’s the former residence of Flande.
Not to just annihilate Flande, but it’s also concerning that his velocity has dropped considerably in his two most recent starts. That’s not great news when matching up against a Cubs team that is decidedly more productive against lefties. So Colorado’s offensive edge, while still there in this conflict, is not what it could be.
The bad news for the Cubs is that with this being an afternoon game at Coors, the bullpen is probably going to get involved here. Of course, there’s good news of sorts on that count, as that also means likely multiple frames for the Rockies bullpen, which is about as soft as it can possibly get.
I made the Cubs -120 in this game, so the early number certainly provided some ample value on the visitors. That line has shifted, and as I’m writing this, it’s pretty much Cubs -113 as the most widely available number. At that price, given what I feel is a substantial pitching advantage, I’ll have to make the rare road chalk call on the Cubs.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Oakland Athletics Run Line over the Minnesota Twins
That being said, let's talk about who will be auto-listed on your ticket when making your wager, that being Yohan Pino and Jon Lester. And that alone is a mismatch.
I am not insisting on those guys because I think Oakland is the superior team. But it helps knowing you have the pitching edge. I mean, Lester is after winning his A's debut Saturday after giving up just three runs on nine hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 6-2/3 innings against the Royals. He turne in his ninth consecutive quality start, and during that span he has a stingy 1.38 ERA.
Pino is a 30-year-old rookie who I am far from sold on right now and think could be in big trouble. Anyone in Minnesota's rotation could be in trouble, for that matter.
2♦ OAKLAND -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the same as last night's freebie winner...Tigers-Yankees to stay Under the total one more time.
All 3 meetings this week have featured plenty of pitching, and 3 Unders in the book.
Detroit has now played 4 in a row Under the total, while New York has held Under the total in 6 of their last 9 games played.
Rick Porcello is 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 4 starts, so cannot count on the Yankees busting free for a big number this afternoon, and while Shane Greene has stumbled early against the Red Sox in his last start, the righty sports a solid 3.12 ERA when he starts during the afternoon.
New York is on a 15-6-1 overall Under run their last 22, so stick with the trends and play Thursday's matinee Under the posted price.
3♦ DETROIT-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Houston Astros in Philadelphia, as the value road pup against the Phillies.
I like this kid Collin McHugh for the Astros, as the right-hander has shown plenty of durability, after he bounced back from injury to toss 6-1/3 innings in each of his last two outings. The right-hander has a 1.96 road ERA in 41-plus innings this season, so he won't be short of any sort of confidence in this one.
As for Roberto Hernandez, Philly's right-handed starter, is in after his best outing of 2014 in his last trip to the hill, but it took that outing to finally drop his ERA below 4.00 for the first time since May.
My money is on Houston and I'll list both.
3♦ HOUSTON