Brad Wilton
My comp play for Thursday is the Under in the Orioles-Blue Jays game at the Rogers Centre.
The Under came through last night in Toronto's 5-1 win, as the Under moved to 5-1 in the series since June between the A.L. East rivals.
No issue backing another lower-scoring game tonight to coclude this three game set, as Toronto starter J.A. Happ has been in the zone since the All-Star break.
Happ sports an ERA of 1.47 in his 3 assignments since the midsummer classic, and is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA the last 3 times he has started at home. Throw in a 1-0 mark with a 0.75 ERA in his last pair of starts against the Orioles, and you can see why I am backing the Under in this one.
Miguel Gonzalez will look to keep pace for Baltimore, and he is a positive 4-1 against Toronto his last 7 starts against them, sporting a 2.45 ERA along the way.
Have to side with the Under in this Battle of the Birds on Thursday.
3♦ BALTIMORE-TORONTO UNDER
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +120 over Saskatchewan
The Roughriders are the defending champs. Combine that with back-to-back wins in which Saskatchewan outscored the opposition 75-23 and what you have is an overreaction by the betting public on the more popular team. Let us remind you that Saskatchewan’s last two victories occurred against Toronto and Ottawa. Its other victory came against Hamilton. Combined, those three teams form the East are 4-12. The Riders outgained Ottawa by 13 yards last week. In that 24-0 first quarter last week, the Redblacks turned the ball over twice and had one punt go about 12 yards, Ottawa had more passing yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry to the Riders 3.8 yards per carry. Prior to that, Saskatchewan had been outgained in three straight starts by 65 yards, 56 yards and 121 yards respectively. Playing in Toronto, the Riders got whacked 48-15. In the Riders two losses, they have been outscored 74-28 against Toronto and B.C. Darian Durant has passed for 600 less yards than Winnipeg’s Drew Willy.
Winnipeg has a weak pedigree over the years, which causes folks to believe a crash back down to earth is forthcoming. We have no idea why the Bombers aren’t getting the respect they deserve and so we’ll look to take advantage. Drew Willy is second in passing yards (1662) to Ricky Ray’s 1687 and nobody else is close. Winnipeg’s 27-26 victory over the Tiger-Cats in Hamilton last week is misleading, as Winnipeg dominated every key statistic which included outgaining the Tabbies by more than 200 yards. The Blue Bombers are now 5-1 overall and could have been excused for losing last week with this huge game on deck but they found a way to win. In fact, these two will play three times in the next five weeks beginning here. Willy was traded from Saskatchewan to Winnipeg this past off-season so there will be extra motivation for him. The Bombers have proven to be a mentally tough team and there are no stats that can measure the value of that. Winnipeg has rallied in the fourth quarter twice to snatch victory in the hands of defeat. They have out away teams when they’ve had a fourth quarter lead. This year’s edition of the Blue Bombers are not like teams of the past and now they have the mindset that they’re capable of defeating anyone and they have a QB. The Riders have defeated Winnipeg in 10 of the past 12 meetings and now, for the first time in a long time, Winnipeg is the superior team that’s sick of being the whipping boys in this series. Expect a determined effort from this undervalued host and also expect a victory. No way should the Riders be favored in Winnipeg.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets +140 over WASHINGTON
Jordan Zimmerman is one of those pitchers that for whatever reason does not get the recognition he deserves. He comes into this start with a 7-5 record after 22 starts and 132 innings with a 3.00 ERA, a 3.22 xERA while striking out 121 and walking just 21. That’s pretty much in-line with his stats last season as well when he combine his fine control with a low hit % in the first half. His second half paled in comparison, but his xERA shows that the skills weren't that different. Split the difference, and you have a low ERA with excellent command. That said, Zimmerman doesn’t win many games because the Nats rarely give him run support. He’s the king of no-decisions and it should also be noted that his BAA this year is a pedestrian .263. It should also be noted that the Nationals have lost 21 of their past 31 games without 3B Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup. This one, however, is more about backing Jacob DeGrom in this price range.
DeGrom had the best swing-and-miss stuff of any starter in MLB during the month of July. His 15% swing and miss rate was the highest in the game, helping him to post elite base skills: 10.6 K’s/9, 2.0 BB/9, 48% GB%. His 93.8-mph fastball velocity was in the top 15 of all starters in the game. He has been able to keep hitters off-balance with a five-pitch mix. DeGrom is 5-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 37 K’s in 35 innings over his last five starts. He has a great chance to thrive again and so we’ll keep riding him when the value is there.
L.A. Dodgers +102 over L.A. ANGELS
Hyun-Jin Ryu is showing that he is a strong option with four straight pure quality starts and nine in his last 10 starts. Over his last four starts, he has a tremendous 28/3 K/BB. On the road this season, Ryu has done his best work, going 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts. Ryu put up a rough 4.45 ERA in 28 IP in July, but his base skills were actually the best in the NL that month: 10.2 K’s/9, 1.3 BB/9, 49% GB%. A 37% hit rate and 63% strand rate combined to inflate his ERA. He also was one of the best starters in the game in May. With a 2.68 xERA since July 1, Ryu is a very attractive stretch-run target and certainly offers up value here.
We’ve written about pitchers in the past that have “lost it” and C.J. Wilson may very well be a strong candidate to join that list. Wilson hit the DL just before the All-Star break and missed only one start. He had struggled badly in his four starts before the break (19 runs and five HR over 18 2/3 IP) and was in need of both a time-out and some minor league instruction/rehab. The official word is that a sprained ankle and tightness in his left hip had affected his delivery, and that has been corrected or at least that’s what the Angels are saying. We’re not buying it. In his first start back after the break on August 2, Wilson didn’t last two innings in Tampa Bay. He allowed six runs and walked two in 1.1 innings and was yanked. Wilson has 109K’s over 118 innings this season but over his last two starts his swing and miss rate was 3%. He’s also walked 50 batters this season in those 118 frames and over his last four starts his BB/K split is 10/12 with a WHIP of 3.80. Is a 3.80 WHIP even possible? Throw in an xERA of 8.50 over that span and C.J. Wilson is instant fade material until he shows us something different. The Halos say he’s fine but words mean nothing. Let’s see him prove it.
Tony Stoffo
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Seattle Seahawks -119
Even though you would think the Broncos might want some revenge tonight against the Seahawks from their embarrassing Super Bowl loss. And that Seattle should come into this preseason with a definite Super Bowl hangover - the odds makers have made Seattle the small favorite for tonight's match-up against the Broncos. And I can see why as this is a very deep Seahawks squad as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past 3 Preseasons. Their Quarterback Rotation of Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, and B. J. Daniels sure tells you why the Seahawks will again dominate again this preseason.
Ross Benjamin
San Francisco @ Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -126
The Giants starter Jake Peavy has gone a horrible 0-11 in his last 11 versus the money with a lofty 4.96 ERA. Despite their win yesterday, the Giants have gone a dismal 22-37 versus NL Central opponents over the last 2-seasons. The Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta has gone 4-0 in his last 4 versus the money with a terrific 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Play on the Milwaukee Brewers as an early free play selection.
Jeff Alexander
LA Angels -107
After back-to-back 1-run defeats to the Dodgers, look for the Angels to bear down and get a win tonight. The Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 game 4's of a series, 17-4 in their last 21 Thursday games, 24-9 in their last 33 games following a loss and 36-15 in their last 51 home games. The Halos are also 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 home starts. The Dodgers are 28-57 in their last 85 interleague road games, 6-17 in their last 23 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter and 10-25 in their last 35 road games versus the Angels. The Dodgers are also 1-4 in Ryu's last 5 interleague starts.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Dodgers +105
There's no way the Los Angeles Dodgers should be an underdog tonight with the edge they have on the mound in this contest with the cross-town rival Los Angeles Angels. I'll take advantage and back them at a tremendous price in Game 4 of this series Thursday.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a great season, going 12-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 21 starts. He has been at his best on the road, where he is 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.148 WHIP over 11 starts. Ryu pitched a two-hit shutout in his only career start against the Angels last season.
C.J. Wilson has really imploded this season, especially of late. The left-hander is 8-7 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 20 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 14.47 ERA and 2.894 WHIP in his last three starts. Wilson gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Dodgers in 2013.
The Dodgers are 11-2 in their last 13 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 8-1 in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 7-2 in Ryu's last nine road starts. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. The Angels are 1-4 in Wilson's last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals -110
The red-hot Royals, winners of 11 of 14, are showing value at this price against an Arizona club that has dropped four of five and is only 23-35 in this ballpark this season. A change of scenery hasn't kept the losses from piling up for Vidal Nuno. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 since he came over from the Yankees. His clubs are 3-12 in his last 15 starts. Guthrie had a rough July but began August by shutting down the A's. The Royals are 6-3 in his last nine starts, including 2-0 in his last two. Look for Kansas City to make it five straight wins at Arizona.
Sam Martin
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Offense has masked the recent issues of Angels starter CJ Wilson, and we'll fade him and the Angels here looking for LA to take advantage of those struggles with a win tonight. Wilson owns a 3-2 team start record in his last five starts, but a closer look at the numbers reveals he has allowed more runs than innings pitched in all five of those starts.
All three of those wins saw Wilson give up six runs before leaving the game, but his offense was able to pick him up. We don't think that will be the case here tonight against Ryu, who not only owns good ERA's of 3.39 for the season and 2.89 away from home, but he's also held opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts overall (and 2 ER's or less in six of those nine contests). Throw in his profitable 22-12 TSR when priced between -125 and +125 and the Dodgers pitching edge is enough to emerge victorious!
Mike Rose
Dodgers at Angels
Play: Dodgers
Clearly Angels lefty C. J. Wilson (8-7, 4.74 ERA) is struggling. After going on the disabled list with hip and ankle issues, he returned August 2nd and couldn't make it out of the second inning allowing 6 runs to the Rays in defeat. Wilson’s ERA has risen nearly 1.5 runs over his last five starts as he's allowed 28 runs including 6 HRs over 18 innings without pitching past the fifth inning. The Dodgers Hyun-jin Ryu ( 12-5, 3.39 ERA ) has 111 Ks and just 24 BB in 124 innings. He’s in good current form having tossed four-straight quality starts and his surface stats are supported by a 3.01 xERA and 49% ground ball rate. While he’ll face some strong right-handed sticks in Trout, Pujols and Kendrick, Ryu is in much better form and offers a fair price in this bragging rights finale.
LT Profits
Dodgers vs Angels
Pick: Dodgers +101
We cashed a nice underdog ticket with the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels last night, and we are coming right back with the Dodgers again at a much smaller price in the Freeway Series from Anaheim Thursday. Hyun-Jin Ryu has quietly been one of the best third starters in the league for the Dodgers at 12-5 with a 3.39 ERA and 111 strikeouts vs. 24 walks in 124.2 innings, and he has now recorded eight Quality Starts in his last nine starts. He also tossed a masterpiece in his only career outing vs. the Angels last year, a Complete Game two-hit shutout. C.J. Wilson has been simply awful for the Halos lately with a 12.50 ERA and 2.61 WHIP over his last five starts while not lasting beyond five innings in any of them! The Dodgers are 11-2 in their last 13 games vs. left-handed starters.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -123
The San Francisco Giants take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee on Thursday afternoon. Both teams come in with identical 62-52 overall records on the season. Jake Peavy gets the start for San Francisco where he is 1-11 with a 4.73 ERA overall this year, 1-7 with a 5.80 ERA on the road this season and 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA his last 3 starts. Wily Peralta is 13-6 with a 3.52 ERA overall this year, 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA at home this season and 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA his last 3 starts. Milwaukee is 2-0 when Peralta starts against San Francisco. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today!
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Now that we have a chance to view this crackling Freeway Series after watching a few games, it seems wholly justified that the four-game set would end in a split. The Dodgers got an unexpected yeoman's effort from recently struggling starter Dan Haren on Wednesday's 2-1 win at Anaheim, and if that is to be the pattern in this series, then keep an eye on Angels' Thursday starter C.J. Wilson, who has labored in recent starts, not getting beyond the fifth inning in five starts since June 24 (a span of time that includes a stint on the DL). Remember, despite Wednesday's win, the Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight games at Anaheim.
Craig Davis
Thursday free play is the Dodgers-Angels Under the total.
When this series started, there was a lot of talk about Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw and how fun that matchup would be to watch. Having said that, the story of this series so far has been the overall pitching from both teams, as only one game of the three so far has gone over the total (a 5-4 final).
The Dodgers won a 2-1 game last night while the Angels won a 5-0 shutout in the opener of this series. It wraps up tonight with Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-5, 3.39 ERA) facing off against CJ Wilson (8-7, 4.47 ERA) in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.
Ryu has posted a 3-0 record and a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts, including 26 innings of work since being blasted by the Detroit Tigers back on July 8. So it's almost been an entire month of fantastic pitching and I expect it to continue tonight.
The Wild Card is CJ Wilson, as he just recently returned to action after missing three weeks because of a sprained right ankle. Although his first return to action start wasn't great, he does own a 4.37 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers and he knows he must step it up tonight to give his team a chance.
Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS-L.A. ANGELS UNDER
Gabriel Dupont
I like the Red Sox tonight, at the big plus-price, to get it done against the Cardinals, and in this game I want you listing both Brandon Workman andAdam Wainwright.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Red Sox - Brandon Workman will be motivated to get back on track after losing his last four starts. I like his tenacity and chances here, as he's being underestimated for this one. Last time out, he pitched well enough to win, allowing just two earned runs over five innings. The right-hander has limited opponents to a .223 average.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Cardinals - Adam Wainwright. The ace of the Cardinals' staff has been chased early in two of his last three starts, which is clearly uncharacteristic, but makes me wonder. In his last three starts, he has allowed 11 runs on 20 hits in 17 innings.
In conclusion, why Boston is my SMART PLAY in this game - Something tells me the Red Sox will play this one tough, hit Wainwright hard and that Workman is poised for a big game. I don't know why - it's a hunch. And in sports betting, sometimes hunches are better than actual thinking. Of course, that's when I refer to my free-pick section, cause I certainly wouldn't want to charge anyone for my dart throwing.
Seriously though, the Red Sox are doing everything in their power to prove they haven't "packed it in" and are still "trying to win." They beat the Redbirds less than a year ago in the World Series, this is the first series since and I like the big underdog here, to leave the series by stealing a pricey win over the hometown ace. Who knows? Sometimes hunches are profitable.
3♦ BOSTON