Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, August, 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Kansas City
The Red Sox look to open the series and take advantage of a Kansas City team that is 5-15 in Bruce Chen's last 20 starts as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115)

Game 951-952: Colorado at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 13.126; NY Mets (Gee) 15.155
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 16.659; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.757
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+125); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 13.330; Philadelphia (Martin) 14.489
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Hand) 14.003; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.619
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-165); Under

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.856; St. Louis (Martinez) 15.891
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Over

Game 961-962: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.823; Cleveland (McAllister) 16.322
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 963-964: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 17.022; Kansas City (Chen) 15.440
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under

WNBA

Washington at Minnesota
The Lynx look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against teams with a losing SU record. Minnesota is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15)

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.547; Indiana 112.440
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3); Over

Game 603-604: Washington at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.184; Minnesota 124.127
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 19; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 15; 160
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Cubs send Jeff Samardzija to the mound against the Phillies in the finale of this three-game series in Philadelphia, Samardzija will enter the game knowing he is just 2-6 in his MLB career team starts during August, including 0-3 away. In addition, the Cubs are 0-2 against the NL East this season in games behind Samarzija. With the Phillies 10-3 the last thirteen games in this series, we recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco GiantsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings with the Giants and face a stumbling defending champion. The Giants are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-16 in their last 21 home games. Milwaukee starter Donovan Hand is 0-3 but throwing well with few walks and a 3.60 ERA -- and the Giants have never seen him. Tim Lincecum (5-11, 4.43 ERA) has struggled all year and is winless his last three starts with a 5.60 ERA. The Giants are 3-13 in Lincecum's last 16 starts. Play the Brewers.

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland IndiansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit TigersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Max Scherzer just continues to get the job done posting a 0.83 ERA over his last three starts while the Tigers have gone 3-0. He has faced the Indians three times this year already and has a 2.74 ERA. He also has a 2.21 ERA on the road and a 2.64 ERA during night starts. Indians hitters have a .210 AB and a .577 OPS on 210 AB. We have some good sample sizes there and to go along with it is Scherzer who has a 2.23 ERA on 4 days rest on the road. Scherzer also is on a fresh 4 days rest because he made his last start on 6 days rest. Cleveland's probable starter can not say the same.
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Zack McCalister has struggled against some of the Tigers big hitters and he's also failed to go deep into games particularly on 4 days rest. Now he has good numbers at home, but over 6 starts on 4 days rest he's averaged just 5.1 IP and has a 4.93 ERA. It's clear that the Indians will be relying on their bullpen Thursday night and that's not a good sign because they are ranked 24th in ERA. McCallister's solid numbers are a bit misleading because he has a 4.48 xFIP which is nothing compared to Scherzer's 2.93.
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Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Dillon Gee (1-2, 21 IP, 0.76 WHIP, 2.14 ERA)
Bruce Chen (3-0, 18 IP, 0.67 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Jose Fernandez (3-0, 23 IP, 0.70 WHIP, 1.57 ERA)
Jeff Samadzija (1-2, 18.2 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 2.89 ERA)
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Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Jake Westbrook (1-2, 17 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tigers vs. IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Max Scherzer (16-1, 2.85 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Scherzer dominated the White Sox on Saturday, going 7 2/3's scoreless frames, scattering three hits while walking three and striking out six for his 16th victory. Scherzer has given up just four hits over 13 2/3's scoreless innings spanning his last two starts and has in fact posted a quality outing in 13 of his last 14 trips to the bump. He'll take his sparkling 6-0, 2.21 ERA road record into Cleveland to throw opposite Zach McAllister (4-6, 3.47 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off three hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5 1/3's frames of work in a no-decision vs. the Marlins on Saturday. McAllister will look to make an immediate return to the winners circle today and improve upon his already stellar 3-2, 2.82 ERA home record. No need to overanalyze this one I don't think; "recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and in this case both starters come in with considerable momentum. Expect runs to be at a premium and consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

Vegas ConnectionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox at Kansas City RoyalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston Red SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First game of a 4 series. Red Sox leave Houston Tuesday after being down 7-0 won in 15-10 game. BOS is 6-2 in their last 8 overall. and KC 12-2 last 14 look for a well played game tonight at Kauffman.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants -165FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers are having all kinds of problems at the plate right now. Over their past seven games they have a .213 batting average and have scored a mere 3.0 runs per game. On the road they are 13 games below .500 this season making the Giants an easy call in this matchup. While San Francisco has not blown up the scoreboard, their .262 batting average home gives them more than enough advantage over Milwaukee.
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San Francisco will also have a big advantage at the starting pitcher position. Milwaukee is 0-3 in Donovan Hand's last three starts and he is yet to win a game on the road. Lincecum should have no problem returning to his 2012 form when facing this Brewers team that is hitting so poorly right now. Over their past seven games the Giants have allowed opponents to score an average of just 2.1 runs on a 212 batting average.

Vegas Sports InformerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati / Atlanta Under 37FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It's no shock that I believe the Falcons are going to be a tough team to beat this NFL season, and I see their offense being the big key. Thursday night I see defense being the key of the Falcons, and I'm shocked to see this total over 35. It's not like Matt Ryan will be playing the whole game! The Bengals always play good defense, and I don't see them giving up the long pass all game long. Should be a hard fought defensive game, and both teams will trying out the run game and short passes, and these plays will make the clock tick fast. This game flies under, and I don't see this game going over 30 points.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bengals at FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati (0-0) will be challenged on offense in this contest with both veterans John Skelton and Josh Johnson having just two weeks of training camp time at quarterback to learn the new offense after coming over from Arizona and San Francisco respectively. To compound this matter, the Bengals are decimated at the wide receiver position with A.J. Green, Andre Hawkins and Marvin Jones all unlikely to play in this opening preseason game. Atlanta also will likely have some issues on offense with Dominique Davis serving as Matt Ryan's primary backup before giving way to rookies Sean Renfree (Duke) and Seth Doege (Texas Tech) likely to get plenty of time under center. Additionally, under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons have played 11 of their last 17 preseason home games Under the Total with the line in the +/- 3-point range. Take the Under in this Thursday preseason contest.

Jeffrey Brandes

St. Louis Cardinals -110

Pitchers:

Los Angeles Dodgers: Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP 10-3, 3.15 ERA
St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Martinez, RHP

The Cardinals have not lost a four-game series this season, having gone 3-0-3. A loss Thursday would snap that streak.

Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed 11 hits but only two runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last start. The Cardinals will call Carlos Martinez up from Triple-A to make his first Major League start. Martinez is 5-2 with a 1.87 ERA in the Minors this season, having split time between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. He struggled in 10 relief appearances for the Cardinals earlier this year.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -1½ +138

The Giants are off a tough 6-1 home loss to the Brewers and that sets up the system here today as we play on home favorites that lost as a home favorite last night and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road dog win like the Brewers that scored 5 or more runs. The Giants have a pitching advantage with Tim Lincecum over D. Hand for Milwaukee. Even worse The Brewers are 1-20 in the last game of a series with regular rest when they are off a game in which they bullpen allowed fewer than two runs,and they are not favored by -150 more higher. The Brewers have lost 30 of 40 as a road dog in this range and 9 of the last on Thursday. Look for the Giants to take the rubber game here today.

Jesse Schule

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have increased their lead in the American League Central, sitting six games up on Cleveland after winning three straight at Progressive Field. Detroit has won 11 straight overall, and they will try to complete the sweep in Cleveland today. Max Sherzer will toe the slab for the Tigers in the series finale, and he leads the major leagues with 16 wins on the season. Sherzer (16-1, 2.85 ERA) didn't allow a run on just three hits through 7 2/3 innings in a 3-0 win over the White Sox his last time out. He only allowed one hit over six innings in a 10-0 win over Philadelphia prior to that. His only loss of the season came at home, and he's still perfect with a record of 6-0, 2.21 ERA on the road this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA in three starts versus the Tribe this year. Cleveland hands the ball to Zach McAllister, who has failed to record a win in five straight starts. McAllister (4-6, 3.47 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 4-3 Cleveland win over Miami his last time out, but did not get credited with the decision. If Detroit needs a pinch-hitter, they will likely turn to Brayan Pena, as the 31 year old backup catcher is 3-for-3 with a home run lifetime versus McAllister. Austin Jackson is 4-for-6 lifetime versus McAllister, and he hit a double and a home run yesterday. The Tigers appear to be in a very good spot to complete the sweep at Progressive Field tonight.

Bruce Marshall

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Chicago Cubs

With 14 losses in their last 16 games, the Phillies are one of the premier go-against options in the NL these days. A combination of poor hitting and weak pitching has been devastating, with Philly a multi-run loser in ten of those 14 defeats. Advantage this afternoon at CBP looks to go with the Cubs and Jeff Samardzija, the ex-Domer who is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last five away from Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, the Phils gamble with rookie starter Ethan Martin, who hopes for a better effort in the finale than during his major league debut Friday when he gave up five of his six runs in the fifth inning of a 6-4 loss to Atlanta.

Larry Ness

Boston vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The Red Sox open this four-game series tonight in KC with the AL’s best overall record at 70-46 but the Royals are 15-4 since the break...
Boston’s felt plenty of ‘heat’ from the surging Rays in the AL East but the Red Sox open this four-game series tonight in KC with the AL’s best overall record at 70-46 (lead the Rays by 2 1/2 games in the division). It’s also worth noting that Boston’s is MLB’s second-best moneyline team (plus-$1,496) but there is a quite a gap between the Red Sox and the Pirates, who lead the moneyline standings with a truly impressive plus-$2,880 mark! As for the Royals, despite a 15-4 second-half surge, they've actually lost a half-game in the standings to Detroit, which won its 11th straight Wednesday. Kansas City is 8 1/2 behind the Tigers and five games out of the second wild-card spot.

Jon Lester takes the mound for the Red Sox. Lester was a splendid 65-32 (.747) for Boston from 2008-11 but like the entire team, suffered a ‘meltdown’ in 2012, finishing 9-14 with a 4.82 ERA. That looked like a thing of the past, when he opened 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA over his first nine starts in 2013 (Red Sox were 7-2). However, Lester struggled badly for an eight-start stretch from May 20 through June 27, posting a 6.99 ERA. He’s rebounded some since, although he was awful in his last outing. Lester allowed six ERs on 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings at home against Arizona last Friday, but escaped with a no-decision in Boston’s 7-6 loss.

He comes in 10-6 with a 4.52 ERA over 23 starts in 2013, with Boston going 14-9. Boston’s 8-1 in his home starts but just 6-8 in his road starts. However, Lester is 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA in nine starts (team is 6-3), his lowest ERA against any team he's faced more than four times (owns a 1.04 WHIP vs the Royals). That said, Lester takes on a current KC team which has won six consecutive series, its longest run since taking nine straight series back in 1991. As mentioned earlier, the Royals are 15-4 since the break and a big reason for that is a bullpen which owns a 1.32 ERA over the last 15 games.

Getting the start for KC is Bruce Chen. He went 11-14 with a 5.07 ERA in 34 starts last season and won a club-best 34 games as a starter over the three previous seasons. However, he struggled in spring training (allowing 13 runs and 19 hits in 16.2 innings) and was regulated to the bullpen to open 2013. He went 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA while working 33.2 innings over 19 relief appearances but replaced the struggling Luis Mendoza (4.87 ERA) in the rotation before the All-Star break. Chen allowed one hit and struck out four over six innings July 12, but the Royals fell to Cleveland 3-0 in his first start.

That strong effort kept him in the rotation and over his last three outings (going six inning each time), Chen has allowed just 10 hits , two walks and only four ERs (2.00 ERA), going 1-0 but with the Royals winning all three. He’s now gone six innings in each of his four starts in 2013, posting a 1.50 ERA. “Bruce is completely fresh,” manager Ned Yost said recently. “And now, hopefully he stays completely strong in the second half.” I’m with Yost. Take the Royals.