JR O'Donnell
SD Chargers +2.5
Grab our call 10:10 tonight as we are not sold on the new / young O line from these Seattle Hawks @ Qualcomm Stadium {LATE}..... 2 factors to look real hard @ with this baby Short/Sweet and a hard charger!!... Coach Mike McCoy and O C Ken Whisenhunt from Zona want to start off this relationship with a Winner..... Look for the Chargers D to step it up after a rock solid year with John Pagano at the DC controls.
Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis CardinalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers are continuing to rip through the League and are closing out their series against St. Louis Thursday. With Shelby Miller getting hurt unexpectedly the Cards brought in Jake Westbrook in relief and are now going with a rookie making his first start tonight - Carlos Martinez. His numbers in relief have been uninspiring but he is a prospect. For L.A, Hyun Jin Ryu takes the hill and the veteran lefty has been very sharp in his first go around the Majors. He also will have the element of surprise having never faced St. Louis. Very good value on this pick’em situation.
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Milwaukee vs. San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I won't make the argument that the wrong team is favored here. As bad as the Giants have been, they've still been slightly better than the Brewers this season and they do have an edge on the mound with Tim Lincecum going up against Donovan Hand.
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With that being said, I don't believe San Francisco should be laying close to 60 cents in this spot. I'll gladly take the value being offered with the Brewers, who are suddenly exuding a little confidence now that they've put the Ryan Braun circus behind them.
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Milwaukee has taken the last two games in this series after dropping the opener on Monday night. The Brew Crew check into today's game a respectable 6-4 over their last 10 games.
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As I mentioned, Donovan Hand will get the nod for Milwaukee. To be honest, I'm not sure how much success he'll have today against a Giants lineup that is certainly in position to bust out. However, I do expect Hand to at least keep his team in the game for five innings before handing it over to the bullpen - which I should add has been terrific on the road this season, posting a collective 3.02 ERA.
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Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum has been sharp in his last two outings, allowing only three earned runs on 10 hits over 14 innings of work. However, he's been wildly inconsistent this season, particularly here at home, where he's just 3-5 with a 4.78 ERA. The last time he faced the Brewers was last season - a game the Giants lost 6-4 right here in San Francisco. The Brewers are by no means an offensive juggernaut, but they did show they can hang a crooked number on the board last night, scoring six runs in the eighth and ninth innings combined.
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The Giants are a great team to fade right now - a veteran club that had its sights on repeating as World Series champions this year, not on playing out the string in August. The value is there, and I'm confident we'll see another scrappy performance from the Brewers on Thursday afternoon.
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Red Sox at RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City (58-53) begins this series after their 5-2 win versus Minnesota -- and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total with Chen on the mound. The left-hander has a 4-0 record with a 2.03 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP this season. But while Chen sports a sizzling 1.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and .156 opponent's batting average, these numbers rise to a 2.87 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .266 opponent's batting average when at home. The Over is 7-3-1 in the Royals' last 11 home games with Chen on the hill. Boston (70-46) has seen the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs. The Red Sox enter this game coming off a 7-5 win against the Astros -- and the Over is also 7-2-1 in Boston's last 10 games when Lester was pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. The left-hander has a 10-6 record with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this year. But while Lester has a 3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .254 opponent's batting average when at home in Fenway, these numbers rise to a 5.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .272 opponent's batting average when on the road. Not surprisingly, the Over is 5-1-1 in Boston's last 7 road games with Lester pitching as the favorite.
Doug Upstone
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
On Thursday afternoon, PLAY AGAINST road underdogs like Colorado with a money line of +100 to +150, when team''s hitters draw three walks or less a game on the season, after scoring two runs or less in four straight games. Since Puff Daddy released 'Can't Nobody Hold Me Down', this baseball system is 52-15, 77.6 percent.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -118
The Boston Red Sox (70-46) have the best record in the American League. While the Kansas City Royals are hot right now, I believe the Red Sox are showing excellent value as only a small favorite in this one.
Jon Lester has had a solid season at 10-6 with a 4.52 ERA on the year. What I really like about the left-hander heading into this one is his past success against Kansas City. Lester is 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in nine career starts against the Royals.
Bruce Chen has pitched well in limited action this year, but he's clearly being overvalued tonight. That's especially the case when you consider Chen is 3-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 11 career starts against Boston.
The Red Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 games as a favorite. The Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas City is 5-15 in Chen's last 20 starts as an underdog. The Royals are 1-4 in Chen's last 5 starts vs. Boston. Bet the Red Sox Thursday.
Steve Janus
Tigers/Indians Under 7½
Expect a low scoring game tonight between the Tigers and Indians as they wrap up their 4-game series. Detroit will send out Max Scherzer, who is well on his way to the Cy Young. Scherzer is a ridiculous 16-1 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in 22 starts. He's had little trouble adjusting to life on the road, where he's 6-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.791 WHIP. He will be opposed by Cleveland's Zach McAllister, who despite a 4-6 record has pitched very well this season. McAllister has a 3.47 ERA over 14 starts and an impressive 2.82 ERA in seven starts at Progressive Field.
Adding even more value is the recent success both starts have had against the opposition. In Scherzer's last two starts vs the Indians he's allowed a total of 3 runs on 9 hits in 15 innings, both of which came at Cleveland. McAllister hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his four career starts vs the Tigers. If that's not enough. Home plate umpire Ron Kulpa has a strong history of games finishing under the total. The UNDER is 13-9 this season 54-33 over his last 87 and 258-198 overall.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians +1.5 -111
The Indians are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price with Zach McAllister on the mound. McAllister has a 3.47 ERA and 1.338 WHIP on the season. It is worth noting that the Tigers are only 1-8 this season versus AL starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.300 to 1.400. McAllister has been at his best at home where he has a 2.82 ERA. The Indians have won each of his last two and seven of his last 10 starts. They are also 4-1 in his last 5 home starts and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a home underdog. The Tribe has won each of McAllister's last three starts versus Detroit. He held the Tigers to two earned runs in each while lasting at least six innings in each. Max Scherzer is having an outstanding season. However, I believe the Tigers are being overvalued here with him on the rubber. His clubs are 8-20 all-time in his road starts following a start where he allowed one earned run or none. The Tribe have seen Scherzer three times already this season so that's to their benefit. Plus, big Max has a 4.59 career ERA against Cleveland. The Indians are 10-1 off 2 straight home losses against division rivals the last two seasons. Take the Tribe.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Miami Under 6.5: Just don'rt see a lot of runs in this one. Gerrit has 20 starts on the year and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any start. He omes in with a 3.26 ERA in his last 3 starts, but also with a very nice 0.72 WHIP over that stretch. He is taking on a Miami offense that struggles to score on the road, averaging just 2.96 rpg away from home. On the other side we have Miami phenom and strikeout machine, Jose Fernandez. Jose comes in with a 2.54 ERA overall, while not allowing more than 2 ER's in 10 of his last 11 starts. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.67 ERA and an 0.70 WHIP, and he has an amazing 35 K's to just 3 walks over the 3 games. Pittsburgh hits just .239 vs righties at home and their home game have gone 36-21-3 to the Under this year, while Miami road games have gone 31-19-4 to the Under. Let's also note the the Under is 18-6-2 in Miami's last 26 on grass, while the Under is also 15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh. Both starters are an in very good form and we should get a similar 3-2 type that we had when these two guys met 11 day's ago in Miami.
Joe Duffy
Bengals vs. Falcons
Play: Under 37
Both teams will be without their top receivers. Well in Atlanta’s case, perhaps their No. 2 guy.
The Bengals A.J. Green and his 97 receptions from last season will be watching. Julio Jones is out for Atlanta. He had 79 grabs for 1.198 yards last season. Superstar TE Tony Gonzalez is also out.
Atlanta is very thin at right tackle with Mike Johnson out, so are not going to expose Matt Ryan. Ryan and the Bengals Andy Dalton will see limited action.
These teams practiced against each other this week and the Bengals defense shined against the Atlanta passing game.
Among the many reason why we have had enormous success in preseason betting is knowing what, “quarterback depth” truly means in exhibition play. The Bengals have a couple of journeyman former starters behind Dalton. There is a reason why they are guys who will never again be No. 1 QBs on a healthy depth chart.
Falcons coach Mike Smith traditionally has pulled his starters after the first series in the opening game of NFLX. Sure, both of these teams have a ton of frontline talent on offense, which is why the total is very high for an opening preseason game. However, all the stars will play little if at all.
This game stays way under.
Jeff Alexander
SF Giants -163
Lincecum is no longer worthy of "ace" status, but he's far more proven than Milwaukee's Hand and showed he is still capable of dazzling on occasion when he tossed a no-no last month. In fact, Lincecum has given up 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. The Giants are 5-2 in Lincecum's last 7 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Brewers are 4-17 in their last 21 games as an underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-5 in Hand's last 5 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -2 over SAN DIEGO
The first preseason game is almost always a guessing game but one thing we know for sure is that the Chargers have a new coaching staff while the Seahawks coaching staff is quite familiar with this routine. That’s significant because for the first time, new Charger coach, Mike McCoy will be in charge and he has to get himself familiarized with coaching an NFL game in terms of sending out plays, communication with other coaches and sending out the right personnel for each and every play. And it’s not like the Chargers are a disciplined group of guys that will make things easy for McCoy. No, the Chargers have a history of making more mental mistakes than almost any team over the years and that was under a seasoned and veteran coach in Norv Turner. McCoy’s other priority will be to put together an offensive line to protect Phillip Rivers. Keeping Rivers in one piece is imperative. He was sacked 49 times last year and committed 22 turnovers, mainly because he was under siege behind a leaky line. Rivers will see very little time because an injury to him would be devastating and McCoy figures to have his best people in there after an evaluation period before allowing Rivers to take a snap. That leaves the quarterbacking duties to Brad Sorenson, Charlie Whitehurst and Nathan Enderle. The Chargers have so many kinks to work out and so many players to evaluate that the scoreboard will be the least of their worries.
Pete Carroll is now in his fourth year as head coach of the Seahawks. In Week 1 of the preseason schedule, Carroll is 3-0 because he’s a guy that likes to set a tone. This is what Carroll had to say about the upcoming preseason games. Said Carroll, “The way we look at it is this is the time to find out full-speed football. We are not trying to fool you that we are tackling (in practice). We are not tackling out here. These four games are huge for that. Now it comes to game time. And things change sometimes (in games) and we have to get to the truth — who are these guys and what are they all about and where do they fit in and how can we best utilize their talents?’’ Read that over a couple of times and you’ll get a better understanding of Pete Carroll. He creates competition for players looking to earn a spot on the roster. He’s serious about winning and he’s serious about the preseason. The Seahawks will send out at least two experienced QB’s in Brady Quinn and Tavaris Jackson and both will play their hearts out in an attempt to win the back-up job. Russell Wilson may even play the first quarter or take 20-25 snaps. Peter Carroll also has a big ego and he would not like losing to an inferior team or a rookie head coach that is coaching his first NFL game. Carroll ups his Week 1 preseason record to 4-0.
Nelly
Dodgers / Cardinals Over
The plan to move Carlos Martinez into a starting role may pay dividends eventually but he has not pitched more than two innings in any MLB relief appearance this season, maxing out at 32 pitches. He did go back to AAA to make two starts prior to this outing but completed just five innings in each outing and can't be counted on for a long showing as his control can be an issue with a track record of walks in AAA this season. With Shelby Miller leaving in the first inning last night the Cardinals needed to burn Jake Westbrook as well as have four other relievers work and a St. Louis team that has struggled with relief pitching will have its work cut out tonight. The Dodgers are batting .262 in the last 10 games and Los Angeles has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball over the month, even a bit stronger than St. Louis who has the NL's best scoring numbers on the season. St. Louis has gone just 4-6 in the last 10 games but scoring has not been the problem with the team batting .273 with almost six runs scored per game. Hyun-Jin Ryu has delivered a strong season for the Dodgers but he has allowed 12 runs in his last four starts and seven or more hits in five of his last seven starts despite the Dodgers going 7-0 in his last seven outings. Ryu owns a 1.83 ERA at home but a 4.52 ERA on the road and the 'over' is 8-2 in his 10 road starts this season. The 'over' is 6-2 in the last eight St. Louis games and while Busch Stadium has leaned 'under' lately this is a total set lower than the season average for Cardinals home games.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL +2 over Toronto
This is a no bet for several reasons. For one, the Alouettes are so banged up and so out of sync that we cannot recommend a bet on them in good conscious. Dan Hawkins lasted all of five games for Montreal after trying to instill a new system that wasn’t broken to begin with and Hawkins failed miserably. GM Jim Popp takes over for now and that’s another adjustment the players are going to have to make. From the beginning, the media and fans in Montreal have been asking why any coach would come in and throw out an offensive system that was as brilliantly successful as the one Marc Trestman put in. The Als had to make this change because Hawkins looked lost out there. There is just far too much uncertainty surrounding the Als right now and that makes them difficult to pull the trigger on.
Why not the Argos then? Well, for one, we’re getting a bad number. The Als opened as a 1½-point choice here and the entire betting world is on the visitor and that influx of money has now made Toronto a 2-point choice. That’s a bad number when we could’ve taken 1½-points just two days ago. Additionally, the Argos are coming off a dismantling of the Lions and that has Toronto’s stock high. That’s also not the right time to step in. On paper it looks like the Argos should run over these Als but we’re not so sure. Montreal has been a highly successful program running the offense it will employ tonight. In fact, the Als have been near unbeatable at home over the past decade and while this is a different year, it’s still very much a lot of the same personnel. The Als players are also likely feeling a sense of relief and they should be a lot more relaxed tonight. We’re never in favor of buying high and selling low and if you bet Toronto tonight that’s precisely what you’ll be doing. We’re much more in favor of buying low and selling high and this game fits that theory to a tee. This is a no play for us but we would not be surprised one bit if the Alouettes came out, played a very strong game and won it outright. You’ve been warned.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Royals at home over the Red Sox.
Boston just took 2 of 3 to open their current 10 game road trip in Houston, but it wasn't as easy as the Sox would have liked, as they needed to rally in one game from 5 runs down, and needed a 3-run jack last night in the 9th to escape with the victory.
I expect the Red Sox to be just a little tired when they hit Kauffman Stadium tonight, as they face a Kansas City team that has been buzz-sawing through the second half of the season with a 15-4 record.
Kansas City is on a 13-2 run their last 15 games, and starter Bruce Chen has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of his 4 starts since picking up a regular spot in the rotation.
Jon Lester allowed a season-high 11 hits, and 6 runs his last trip to the mound against Arizona, so I will look for the hot-hitting Royals to get something brewing against him tonight on their home field.
The Royals won 2 of 3 earlier this year in Boston, and I will side with them tonight to take the series opener.
4♦ KANSAS CITY