Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday August, 9

Tony Stoffo

Packers vs. Chargers
Play: Over 37

Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open game plan over the past 6 years that has seen the Over go an impressive 19-5 in the preseason. Well this sure continued last year with the over going a perfect 4-0 – Plus add in the fact here that Norm Turner has quietly showed a steady profit in these preseason games as the over has gone an impressive 36-20 with him running the show. Add these two trends up and you can see how the Over is once again the solid release in this spot.

Marc Lawrence

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning's long awaited debut with Denver takes place Thursday night in Chicago where the Broncos battle the Bears in the preseason openers for both squads. Denver's penchant for winning the money in preseason openers is evident by their 17-6-1 ATS mark in lidlifters, including 13-2-1 away from home. With the visiting team 3-0 SU and ATS the last three meetings in this series during the preseason, look for Lovie Smith to fall to 6-11-1 ATS as preseason chalk here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates fit a solid system that has won 9 of the last 11 times and plays on home favorites off a home win and scored 5 or more runs despite committing 3 or more errors in the game, vs an opponent off a road loss while scoring 5 or more runs. The Pirates are 12-5 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 and 11-3 here when they are -100 to -125. They have Wandy Rodriguez making the start and he has a solid 7 inning gem allowing just one run vs Arizona earlier in the season. Arizona has lost 7 of 9 road starts with J.Saunders on the mound. Play Pittsburgh in the finale.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Miami Marlins

R.A. Dickey has cooled off a bit, but Josh Johnson hasn't. Dickey is a knuckleballer and the Marlins love to run under first year manager Ozzie Guillen. That will be a plus against a knuckler. And Johnson has been on a roll, with a 2-0 record and a 0.92 ERA his last three starts, fanning 22 in 19+ innings with only 6 walks allowed. And he's 8-1 with a 2.59 ERA in his career against the Mets. Play the Marlins!

Scott Spreitzer

Yankees at Tigers
Prediction: Under

These two teams combined for 20 runs on 31 hits in last night's 12-8 Yankee win. Curtis Granderson came alive for the New Yorkers, but he had been in a bad slump, including an 0-for-10 before Wednesday's contest. Detroit had won 10 straight home games before last night, holding the 10 teams to an average of just 2.8 rpg. Doug Fister takes the mound for the home team in this one and I expect the righty to perform well...something he has done in each of his last five starts. Fister has been extremely reliable in 14 starts at Comerica, posting a career 2.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .216 BAA. Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound for the Yankees and he has been outstanding in his last four starts, but I doubt he'll get much offensive support from a team that plates just 3.8 rpg in road day action against righties. The Yankees are on a 7-0 Under run when Kuroda throws on four days rest, while the Tigers are 7-1-1 to the Under with Fister after a Tiger opponent scores at least five runs in their previous game. I'm playing the Under between the Yankees & Tigers on Thursday afternoon.

Sean Murphy

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

The Pirates aren't going away quietly - in fact, they've closed the gap on the Reds in the N.L. Central this week, now sitting just 2.5 games back of the division lead.

While the D'Backs remain in the thick of the N.L. West race, they seem to be heading in the wrong direction right now, losers of four of their last five games. They'll make the long trip home following this game, and I'm not convinced we'll see a focused effort on getaway day.

Joe Saunders takes the ball for the Snakes on Thursday. While he's pitched well this season, the fact is, the wins haven't come. He's just 5-8 overall, while the D'Backs have gone a miserable 6-12 in his 18 starts. Note that they've won only twice in his nine road outings. He did get the better of the Pirates in Arizona back on April 16th, but has never taken the mound here at PNC Park.

Working behind Saunders is a bullpen that has posted a bloated 6.75 ERA over the last five games.

Wandy Rodriguez will counter for the Pirates. He's also posted an ugly 8-15 team record in 23 starts this season, but keep in mind, the majority of those came as a member of the Houston Astros - arguably the worst team in baseball. He's managed to split his first two starts with Pittsburgh, and has been relatively effective allowing exactly three earned runs while working at least six innings in each outing. He hasn't faced the D'Backs this year, but was a 9-1 winner in his lone start against them last year.

Like the D'Backs, the Pirates bullpen has also struggled lately, posting a miserable 7.56 ERA over their last 10 contests. I do have faith in them to turn it around, however, keeping in mind that they've recorded a stellar 2.44 ERA here at home this season.

At 35-17, the Pirates are one of the best home teams in baseball. This is a key game in terms of building momentum before another very winnable series against the Padres begins tomorrow. Look for them to find a way to get it done today.

Jesse Schule

Cincinnati vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago +1.5

The Reds are in Chicago today to kick off a four game series against the Cubs, and they will be looking to get back on track after being swept by the Brewers. Cincy has lost four straight, and they have the Pirates breathing down their necks.

Mike Leake will get the call for Cincy tonight, looking for just his fifth victory of the season. Leake (4-7, 4.51 ERA) was pretty mediocre in his last outing, allowing four runs on six hits, including a pair of homers over six innings, not figuring in the decision in a 5-4 win over the Pirates. He was terrible in his previous outing, leaving in the second inning, not before allowing five runs on five hits and walking three batters.

Starlin Castro has faced Leake more than anyone else in the Cubs lineup, and he is batting .364 with three extra-base hits in 22 career at bats versus the right-hander.

The Cubs will send Chris Volstad to the mound tonight, still in search of his first victory of the season. Volstad (0-8, 7.22 ERA) has been having a terrible year, putting up shocking numbers, losing five straight starts. He may have deserved a better fate in his last outing, allowing just two runs on six hits over seven innings, but losing in a 3-1 ballgame to the Dodgers.

Neither of these two pitchers have been impressive in recent starts, however Volstad has shown signs of improvement. I think the Cubs may be able to give the Reds a run for their money today, keeping the game close.

SPORTS WAGERS

BUFFALO +2½ vs Washington

The Bills opened as a 2-point favorite for this first preseason game but a 4-point swing to the Redskins followed. Most of that can be attributed to the hype surrounding Washington’s top draft pick this season, as all eyes will be on QB Robert Griffin III (RG3). The youngster showed a combination of athleticism and passing skill at the college level the likes of which NFL scouts arguably never have seen. But this is the bigs and Griffin has never taken a snap in an NFL game.

At the college level, Baylor played in the most offense oriented conference in the nation. Yes, he excelled but even if everything goes wonderful for him here, he’s only going to get between 12 and 20 snaps. Washington’s rotation after Griffin will be Rex Grossman, Kirk Cousins and Jonathan Crompton.

Also influencing the money coming in on the ‘Skins is the preseason history of both coaches. Mike Shanahan is 47-29 in the preseason while Chan Gailey of the Bills is just 4-14. That’s significant but the Bills defense, amidst all the hype surrounding the debut of RG3, is going to be jacked up to begin the game and it could set the tone. Washington’s offensive line has some health issues and Shanahan won’t put his starters at risk. Mario Williams, in his new digs, will want to set the tone for the defense and will show little mercy for however many plays he is in for.

Buffalo has a solid QB rotation with Ryan Fitzpatrick, followed by Tyler Thigpen, Vince Young and Brad Smith. The Redskins paid a steep price to get RG3 and while the rookie may turn out to be everything they say he will be, a more practical conclusion is that he’ll be feeling out things at this speed during preseason. The Buffalo Bills defensive starters say they're focused on playing to the whistle in tonight's exhibition opener. We believe them.

Pass MLB

GoodFella

Tampa Bay -1.5 +120

We cashed with the Rays last night & I am going right back to them here this morning, as Matt Moore can be simply unhittable "when on" and he is really dealing right now & this Jays team is in "bag the season mode" as they KNOW they are NOT making the playoffs, as this club has been crushed with key injury after key injury. Rays already seen Alvarez twice this season & he's been regressing for awhile too. Rays flat out in the middle of the playoff chase & I absolutely expect Moore to out pitch Alvarez and hand the ball over to the Rays best arms in the bully & of course the Rays have the edge in the bullpens & my money is on the RAYS RL today.

Joe Gavazzi

St Louis -133

St. Louis Cardinals (-135) We swept the board last night with our top 3 plays! Running our record the last 4 days to 9/3 (75%)! Everyone knows that when I begin a hot streak that you must jump on to gather huge profits! You should do so today with my 3 selections featuring the 3* Take Off the Rubber band, 2* The Dominator! and a 2* Penthouse Pick! pay attention there is afternoon action! In this game with a pair of losses St. Louis is now 3 ½ behind Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot. When quality teams are embarrassed on their home field (such as last night's 15-0 shutout) they bounce back big the next day! Expect that from St. Louis, who despite a pair of losses the last 2 nights, remain16-5 and 7-2 on this field. I acknowledge the quality current form of Bumgarner and the fact that the Giants reversed their former losing streak by going 5-1 away of late. Wainwright is finally rounding into form after the ASB. In his last 4 starts he has a 1.84 ERA with 28 Ks. In his last 8 starts from this mound, he is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Play the Cards to bounce back this afternoon!

Dave Cokin

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians
Pick: Boston Red Sox

Boston has been better on the road than at home. The Indians finally won yesterday, but they're pretty bad right now and have been hideous against lefties all year. I like the Red Sox.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie comes in preseason football, as I side with the Atlanta Falcons at home to get the win and the cover over the Baltimore Ravens.

Although head coach John Harbaugh of the Ravens has guided his team to a solid 11-5 straight up mark in these August games, his team has plenty of injuries they are working through, so do not expect the starters to be playing deep into the Atlanta night tonight.

As for the Falcons, head coach Mike Smith has shown a tendency in the past to play his rookies a little longer than his starters, and he also has some injuries that he will be working around. Still to me in a near pick situation, I always like to back the home team in the preseason, as the back-ups coming in later in the game seem to be more amped up than the back-ups on the visiting side of things.

Chris Redmond is the most accomplished back-up quarterback on either team, and I expect him to be the difference maker in this game tonight.

Home team does right in front of the small home crowd tonight as the preseason gets underway with a win in Atlanta for the Falcons!

1* ATLANTA FALCONS

Your Thursday freebie is the Under this afternoon in the Yankees-Tigers game.

I know what you are saying, "how can you go Under the total in this one?"

True, the teams have combined for 9, 11, and 20 runs in the first three games (all Overs) of this four game series.

After last night's long slugfest, it is time for the starting pitchers to command the mound and silence the bats.

Hiroki Kuroda has a daytime ERA this season well under one. 0.25 to be exact for 36-plus innings worked! His last four starts have ended up being played Under the total, and 16 of his 22 starts overall this season have also stayed Under.

Doug Fister is gaining steam for the Tigers, as each of his last three starts have played Under, and Fister has allowed just one run to score in five of his last six starts.

After a long night game last night, and a quick turnaround today, expect the pitchers to own the upperhand against the bats that will be a split second slower this afternoon.

Yankees and Tigers stay Under today to close their series.

2* N.Y. YANKEES-DETROIT UNDER

MATT RIVERS

Thursday's free play is the total in the Washington-Houston game, as I see the Under being the way to go.

Jordan Zimmerman will face the impressive Lucas Harrell of the Houston Astros.

Harrell has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dim season - yet again - for the 'Stros. Harrell has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Pitching this season at home, Harrell is a sweet 6-1 with a slim 2.02 ERA. Look for Harrell to be stingy at Minute Maid Park once again this Thursday night.

As for Zimmerman, four of his last six starts on the season have held Under the total. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or less in ten of his last twelve assignments. Based on those stats, I think it is a safe assumption the Astros will also have their issues garnering runs off of Zimmerman.

With last night's game holding Under the total, the teams have combined for Unders in four the last six season series meetings.

Under the way to go this Thursday in Washington-Houston.

3* WASHINGTON-HOUSTON UNDER

Chuck O'Brien

I bring my complimentary winning run of 88-55-2 over to the gridiron for tonight's preseason game in the Georgia Dome, where the Atlanta Falcons host the Baltimore Ravens, and my money is going to be on the road dogs in this one.

It'll be an abbreviated window for both starting units tonight, I realize that. But what you have to understand is for most NFL teams in the preseason, it's mostly about protecting the offensive starters, avoiding injuries to the skill-position players first and foremost, and then the linemen.

On defense, the same can be said. But when you have a team like the Ravens, one that is comprised and made up in a defensive meld, you have to believe that no matter which rotation is on the field, they're going to be fired up.

Admittedly, coach John Harbaugh has done a good job in trying to implement as much offense into this team as possible, but the fact is, the Ravens' biggest impact tonight will be with its defense personnel. Make note, the elder statesmen like middle linebacker Ray Lewis, 37, and free safety Ed Reed, 33, will see little to no action - but they will be reminding the younger players what it's like to be a member of this unit.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith will be giving both first-team units an even shorter time on the field than usual, as he's reportedly said he wants to see the younger guys as much as he can tonight.

While Smith is experiencing with his exuberant rookies and younger players, I'll side with Baltimore's defensive tactics in this preseason opener.

5♦ BALTIMORE