Chris Jordan
Free pick run now at 32-18, I'm taking a shot in the National League Central with the Chicago Cubs getting it done against the Cincinnati Reds.
I know Chicago starter Chris Volstad is winless in his last 21 starts, but I'm not too concerned about that. I actually think it's even more of a reason to believe he can get this one done. It's least expected that he'll challenge the first-place Reds who are hungry for a win. After all, they've lost four straight games and they're seemingly in a good spot to snap their losing streak, right?
Well then why isn't this line bigger?
Perhaps it's because Cincinnati starter Mike Leake brings a 6.32 ERA over his past three starts, or that he's having a sub-par season, bringing a 4-7 mark and 4.51 ERA into this one.
I like what I saw out of Volstad his last time out, arguably his best with the Cubs. He threw mixed in his pitches well against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and pitched with a purpose. The hardest part for the right-hander, who is 0-8 with a 7.22 ERA this season, was he was matched up against Clayton Kershaw.
Tonight don't be surprised if he gets his first win of the season.
3♦ CHICAGO
Jimmy Boyd
Boston Red Sox -128
After 11 consecutive losses, the Indians finally got in the win column yesterday. However, I believe they'll dip right back into the loss column tonight as they go up against Boston southpaw Felix Doubront. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win and 1-8 in their last 9 games versus a left-handed starter. The Tribe has struggled against lefty starters all season. They are just 11-24 against southpaw starters on the year while batting .232 and scoring 3.8 runs per game against them. Doubront has been at his best on the road, where he is 5-2 (8-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.57. The Red Sox have won 5 of their last 7 versus Cleveland, and I expect them to come away with another victory here.
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -168
The Nationals, who have won 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8 against the Astros, has the edge against a Houston club that has dropped 42 of its last 52, including 10 of its last 11 at home. The Nationals are 5-0 in Zimmermann's last 5 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 road starts and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are just 2-5 in Harrell's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Washington.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates -123
The Pittsburgh Pirates should be a bigger home favorite tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh (63-47) is the real deal this season and will be right in the thick of the NL Central and NL Wildcard races right up to season's end.
Losers of four of their last five, the Diamondbacks feel their chances of making the postseason slipping away. Joe Saunders is 5-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in 18 starts this season, and he's not the guy that's going to stop the bleeding tonight.
Wandy Rodriquez was an excellent acquisition before the trade deadline for Pittsburgh. The left-hander didn't have a very good record with Houston despite pitching well, and he has a much better chance to be successful with these Pirates. In his last start against Arizona, Rodriquez pitched six shutout innings of a 9-1 victory.
The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Saunders' last 7 starts as an underdog. Arizona is 29-61 in their last 90 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Pirates are 24-7 in their last 31 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 35-16 in its last 51 home games. Bet the Pirates Thursday.
Carlo Campanella
New Orleans vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -3-135
New Orleans beat Arizona in Sunday's "Hall of Fame game," 17-10, but now must play their second preseason game on the road in New England with just 3 days of rest. Don't expect to see much of QB Brees, who was just 4 of 5 passing on Sunday, and expect most of the passing from backups Daniel and Canfield. The Patriots are 8-1-3 ATS during the first week of preseason and after ending last season losing the Super Bowl expect Head Coach Belichick to to want to erase that memory with a victory.
Dirty
D-Backs vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
Lefthander Joe Saunders will take the mound for the Diamondbacks to start this game. Saunders is 5-8 this season with a 3.57 ERA. Saunders's opponent in this one will be Wandy Rodriguez. The Pirates lefthander has a 3.82 ERA to go along with a 7-10 record this season. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 18 games when playing at home against Arizona
Joe Gavazzi
San Francisco Giants vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
In this game with a pair of losses St. Louis is now 3 ½ behind Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot. When quality teams are embarrassed on their home field (such as last night’s 15-0 shutout) they bounce back big the next day! Expect that from St. Louis, who despite a pair of losses the last 2 nights, remain16-5 and 7-2 on this field. I acknowledge the quality current form of Bumgarner and the fact that the Giants reversed their former losing streak by going 5-1 away of late. Wainwright is finally rounding into form after the ASB. In his last 4 starts he has a 1.84 ERA with 28 Ks. In his last 8 starts from this mound, he is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA. Play the Cards to bounce back this afternoon!
DAVID BANKS
Packers / Chargers Under 38
The Green Bay Packers and the San Diego Chargers both open up their preseasons on Thursday night from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA at 8:00 ET, and they will be doing so in front of a national television audience with the game being televised on ESPN. Neither head coach appears to be that serious about preseason although neither has a losing record, as Norv Turner is 15-13 straight up in his preseason career as coach of the Oakland Raiders and Chargers combined while Mike McCarthy is right at .500 at 12-12 as coach of the Packers.
Green Bay went 3-1 straight up during preseason last year but it went only 1-2-1 ATS in those games. The starters obviously will not play much here, but the Packers have a couple of rookies on defense that could become crucial on a unit that ranked dead last in the NFL last season in total defense, and thus these rookies could see extended playing time in the opener. The first is obviously first round drat pick Nick Perry, a pass-rushing linebacker from USC. Perhaps the biggest reason the Packers were so down defensively last year was their inability to rush the passer, mainly because Clay Matthews faced so many double teams. If Perry can adjust to life in the NFL, is would force single coverage on both he and Matthews, making it easier for each to get to the quarterback. Green Bay would also like to take a long look at second round pick Casey Hayward at cornerback. One possible game plan this year is to start Hayward on the opposite side of Pro Bowler Tramon Williams with Charles Woodson moving over to safety, which would suddenly make the secondary formidable if Hayward pans out. The biggest news on the Green Bay offense will be the probable extended playing time for quarterback Graham Harrell and he replaces Matt Flynn in the role of Aaron Rodgers' understudy.
The Chargers were 2-2 in the 2011 preseason while going an identical 1-2-1 ATS as the Packers, and they must now replace their leading receiver the past few years in Vincent Jackson, who signed with the Buccaneers. The Chargers are not lacking in depth at wide receiver with Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal all in the mix, but it is still not clear who the two starters will be while there is no doubt that Ryan Mathews will be the starting running back, so logic would dictate that San Diego will throw the ball a lot in this game to better evaluate the receiving situation. Unfortunately, Meachem and Royal are both questionable with leg injuries, which may put a crimp in those plans. Also, backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst is out, leaving Kevin O'Connell and rookie Jarrett Lee out of LSU to follow Philip Rivers in the Chargers' quarterback rotation.
Neither coach is known for getting his team off to a quick start in preseason, as Turner is 3-4 in preseason Week 1 since 2004 while McCarthy is 2-4 in Week 1 in his Green Bay career. These teams met during the regular season here in San Diego last year with the Packers holding on to win a 45-38 thriller after nearly blowing a 45-24 lead in the fourth quarter.
Andrew Lange
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Play: Under 8
PNC Park has been a cash cow for UNDERS this season at 16-34-2 O/U. The Pirates had a big offensive surge from mid-June to mid-July that saw then average over six runs per game. They've since come back down to earth, averaging about four runs over their last 19 games. And during that stretch, the scores at PNC Park have been extremely low with outputs of 7, 6, 3, 2, 6, 5, 4, 14 and 13. Note that the last two games were aided by unearned runs and a few bullpen meltdowns. The lefty vs. lefty matchup at PNC Park is one that I have been consistently betting UNDER the last few years. Game 1 of this series featured southpaws Wade Miley and Erik Bedard and the end result was just four runs. Wandy Rodriguez has thrown back-to-back quality starts since coming over from Houston. I think his curveball is a good matchup against some of Arizona's dead fastball hitters. Joe Saunders continues to amaze despite marginal stuff. He's been a quality start machine (9 of last 11) and hasn't allowed more than four earned runs since mid-May. Let's get an afternoon winner on the UNDER.
Teddy Covers
Green Bay at San Diego
Play: Under 37.5
Sure, in the regular season, these two offenses would likely be more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard. But here in the preseason, there’s absolutely no reason to expect a high octane shootout.
Green Bay’s defense was nothing short of awful last year, struggling to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and come up with key third down stops on defense. In fact, the Packers ranked dead last defensively in the NFL, allowing a league high 299.8 passing yards per game and a league high 411.6 total yards per game. What do you think the Packers spent the offseason and training camp concentrating on?
The Chargers, too, were a defensive sieve a year ago, allowing an NFL worst 49% third down conversions. They’ve got a new defensive coordinator and a stop unit with something to prove right from the get-go this August.
Both teams have much weaker QB rotations this year than in season’s past. Green Bay’s Mr. August, Matt Flynn, signed a fat free agent contract in Seattle, leaving ample playing time for the likes of untested youngsters Graham Harrell and BJ Coleman. To make matters even worse, their offensive line is banged up already, with the key left tackle position a problem area already.
As for San Diego, their left tackle situation is even worse. Their OL rotation for tonight? An undrafted rookie free agent, backed up by another undrafted rookie free agent protecting their untested backup QB’s blind side. Expect lots of running, and limited offensive flow.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego/ Green Bay Under 38: Google News Play We all know that both of these offenses can score a ton of points, but really the first team offenses won't be out there much in this one. SD is even missing backup Charlie Whitehurst, so once Rivers is gone I just don't see SD putting up very many points. Green Bay's offense is one of the best in the league and they have very little question marks on that side of the ball, so expect minimal snaps for their first team offense as well. Defense is where these teams need to concentrate. The Pack was at or near the bottom of many defensive categories and they used their first 6 draft picks on that side of the ball, sio I really expect McCarthy to concentrate on the defense in this one. The Chargers had a down year defensively as well and used their first 3 picks on defense, so I expect Turner to worry more about that side of the ball in this one as well. Very hard to see either team hitting 20 points in this one as this game is played in the lower 30's.
New England/ New Orleans Over 19 (1st Half): Something I will attempt this year is 1st half totals. I haven't done it before, but I'm always looking to try/ learn new things. This one really caught my eye. Last week the Saints had a great opening drive vs Arizona, while backup QB Chase Daniel had a very good showing as well and I expect more of the same vs a defense that was 2nd to last in the NFL in passing defense. The Pats did use their first 6 draft picks on defense, but it may take sometime for the new players to gel. The Saints defense played well vs the Cardinals, but the Pats first team offense is much more prolific and the Saints are a bit thin in the secondary for this one. Behind Brady we should see Ryan Mallet for much of the first half and he had an excellent preseason last year, plus he is in a heated battle with Brian Hoyer for the number 2 QB spot. The Saints 2nd team offense with Chase Daniel was very good last week and they will be going up against a weaker defense this week, while the Pats Hoyer and Mallet should have some good success early vs the Saints depleted defense. All we need is 3 TD's in the first half of this one and I just don't see how that doesn't happen.
Buffalo/ Washington Over 34.5: Time for Shanahan and the Skins to unleash their new toy on the NFL. RG3 has had a very good camp so far and Shanahan has stated that he will get 18-20 snaps which should be good for 2 maybe 3 series'. Robert has been chomping at the bit to showcase his talents and he will get his chance. The Bills defense looks to be solid and could be the strength of this team, but you can't really game plan for a QB or an offense you haven't seen before, plus we could see a mistake or two by Robert which could lead to a quick score or a short field for Buffalo. Offensively the Bills should have a better year than last year as CJ Spiller is now in his 3rd year and the OL was upgraded with the drafting Cordy Glenn. Last year the Bills passed for 232 ypg and with the addition of WR T.J. Graham, to go along with Steve Johnson they could have a better year this time around. Fitzpatrick and backup Vince young should be able to generate points in this one. Both teams are high on their defenses, but it'll be the offense that steals the show in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -1 over Pittsburgh: Google News Play Philadelphia had a very strong finish to their year and would like to start strong in the preseason here. Big Ben will be limited for Pittsburgh and Wallace is holding out, so there goes a big part of their early offense. Defensively the Eagles had a great end to their year, allowing11.5 ppg in their alst 4 games and they used their first 3 draft picks on defense and you can bet that those guys will get plenty of looks in this one. THe Eagles defense is very strong and DEEP and should handle a depleted Pitt offense in this one. Philly's offense is in good hands at the start with Vick, but the backups have all had very good camps and will get a quarter each to showcase their stuff. The Pitt Defense is depleted as well with Harrison out as well as NT Casey Hampton, plus Troy Polamalu isn't expected to play much at all, so they will have problems stopping the Eagles here. The Eagles are paying with heavy hearts for Andy Reid and the loss of his son, plus they have more depth than Pittsburgh and I believe all that will carry them to the win here.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -3 +110 over Denver
Peyton Manning hasn’t thrown a real-time pass in 19 months and that’s after four neck surgeries. At the ripe age of 36 and with more rust than a sunken ship, Manning cannot be the same QB he was before this unfortunate set of circumstances. At least not right now.
This game against the Bears isn't exactly his first test. A scrimmage last Saturday before a crowd of 41,304 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High was more than a walk through. The No. 2 defense brought significant pressure up the middle and Manning couldn't deliver. He was almost picked off and Manning wasn’t finding his receivers.
That said, Denver coaches will not put Manning in harm’s way right now. That leaves Denver’s No. 2 quarterback Caleb Hanie, who was Jay Cutler's backup with the Bears last year. Hanie is looking to solidify his position as Manning’s back-up this year. Hanie will get plenty of action tonight and that’s good news for Bears backers. He was 0-4 as a starter after Cutler was injured. He struggled so much at training camp last year that he was benched in favor of fifth-round pick Nathan Enderle.
Meanwhile, Bears backup QB Jason Campbell could start for more than a few NFL teams. It’s a huge upgrade that should impact this game. The Chicago Times reports that during practices, Campbell shows poise in the pocket, command of the offense and the physical tools to make the necessary throws and runs. He was 4-2 as the Raiders starter a year ago before he was injured. The rotation for the Bears will be Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Josh McCown and perhaps Matt Blanchard while the Broncos quartet will look like Peyton Manning, Caleb Hanie, Brock Osweiler and Adam Weber. Let’s spot a FG with a host that is much more prepared for this exhibition opener.