Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Georgetown at Alabama
The Crimson Tide look to build on their 5-0-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Alabama is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Crimson Tide favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-7 1/2)

Game 541-542: Providence at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 53.984; South Carolina 57.346
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 135
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+5); Over

Game 543-544: Youngstown State at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 47.769; Detroit 58.960
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 11; 139
Vegas Line: Detroit by 9; 147
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-9); Under

Game 545-546: Cleveland State at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 60.962; Wright State 53.147
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 8; 124
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 6 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-6 1/2); Over

Game 547-548: Arkansas State at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 49.957; St. Bonaventure 61.973
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 12; 121
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 11 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-11 1/2); Under

Game 549-550: Florida International at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 48.165; Georgia State 59.759
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 11 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 9 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 551-552: St. John's at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 58.926; Kentucky 83.128
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 24; 148
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 22 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-22 1/2); Over

Game 553-554: Illinois-Chicago at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 45.821; WI-Green Bay 58.967
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 13; 123
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 12 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-12 1/2); Under

Game 555-556: Loyola-Chicago at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 51.823; WI-Milwaukee 61.754
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 10; 124
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 9 1/2; 122 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-9 1/2); Over

Game 557-558: CS-Fullerton at Wichita State (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 53.175; Wichita State 68.543
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 15 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 17 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+17 1/2); Over

Game 559-560: George Washington at Kansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 56.895; Kansas State 72.373
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 15 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 9 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 561-562: Mississippi at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 61.042; DePaul 59.973
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 1; 148
Vegas Line: DePaul by 1; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+1); Over

Game 563-564: Georgetown at Alabama (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 69.965; Alabama 78.865
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 9; 122
Vegas Line: Alabama by 7 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-7 1/2); Under

Game 565-566: Marist at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 44.127; Loyola-MD 53.970
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 10; 137
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 12; 142
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+12); Under

Game 567-568: Morehead State at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 51.141; Kent State 66.083
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 15; 136
Vegas Line: Kent State by 13 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-13 1/2); Over

Game 569-570: The Citadel at College of Charleston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 45.064; College of Charleston 60.371
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 15 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 18 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+18 1/2); Under

Game 571-572: Davidson at Wofford (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 59.720; Wofford 52.133
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 7 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Davidson by 6; 131
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-6); Over

Game 573-574: Chattanooga at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 44.018; Georgia Southern 44.258
Dunkel Line: Even; 141
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+2); Over

Game 575-576: NC-Greensboro at Appalachian State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 40.797; Appalachian State 53.433
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 12 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 10 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-10 1/2); Under

Game 577-578: Siena at St. Peter's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.430; St. Peter's 55.527
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 6; 116
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 4 1/2; 120
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-4 1/2); Under

Game 579-580: Western Carolina at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 47.445; Samford 47.367
Dunkel Line: Even; 129
Vegas Line: Samford by 1 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+1 1/2); Over

Game 581-582: Middle Tennessee State at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 62.661; Tennessee State 52.065
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 10 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-4 1/2); Under

Game 583-584: Murray State at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 61.808; Western Kentucky 51.613
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 10; 137
Vegas Line: Murray State by 6 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-6 1/2); Over

Game 585-586: San Francisco at Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 55.128; Montana 59.887
Dunkel Line: Montana by 5; 132
Vegas Line: Montana by 6 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+6 1/2); Under

Game 591-592: South Dakota at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 44.908; Oakland 63.777
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 19
Vegas Line: Oakland by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-12 1/2)

Game 593-594: South Dakota State at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 58.108; IUPUI 54.498
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State

Game 595-596: UMKC at IPFW (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UMKC 45.582; IFPW 54.094
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: IPFW by 7
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-7)

Game 597-598: North Dakota State at Western Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 61.061; Western Illinois 46.444
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-2 1/2)

Jim Feist

CS Fullerton vs Wichita State
Pick: Wichita State

A long road trip for Cal State Fullerton, from southern Cal to the middle of the country. The Titans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Wichita is a strong team, particularly under the glass (27th in the nation in rebounding), losing only to Alabama and Temple, the latter in OT. They play great defense and the Shockers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Play Wichita State!

Lenny Del Genio

Georgetown at Alabama
Play: Alabama

Good game Thursday night in the Big East vs. SEC Challenge and I'll side with the home chalk as Bama is a perfect 6 for 6 at the betting window in Tuscaloosa laying 6.5 to 12 points. They were 13-2 ATS overall here before failing to cover a big number last time out vs. Va Commonwealth. Alabama plays great defense, holding foes to just 52.6 PPG on 32% shooting and that includes a pair of wins over Purdue and Wichita State, both good teams. Offensively, they return the top three scorers from last year and I feel they'll be more than able to handle an overrated Georgetown team.

Rob Vinciletti

Montreal Canadiens vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks

The Sharks are rested and ready to put an end to their 2 game losing streak. They have won 5 of the last 6 times with 2 days rest and catch a Montreal Team in the 2nd of back to back road games after losing 4-1 to a mediocre Anaheim team. The Sharks are 29-11 off a loss by 2 or more goals and 4-1 in non conference games. They average the highest amount of shots on goal per game in the league. Montreal has lost the last 5 times here in San Jose. Look for the Sharks to get the win.

EZWINNERS

Seattle Seahawks +3

The Eagles even at 4-7 on the season still have a slim hope for the playoffs as they trail Dallas and the NFC Wildcard leaders by three games with five games left to play, but I think those hopes will be erased after this game. The Eagles troubles are well documented and they are dealing with a wrath of injuries. No injury is bigger than starting quarterback Michael Vicks which means Vince Young will get the start once again for the Eagles. The Seattle defense has been playing pretty well as they are effective at containing the run but pass coverage is where they can be exploited, specifically in the vertical game which is something I don't expect Vince Young to take capitalize on. When Seattle has the ball I expect them to be able to take advantage of Philadelphia's run defense. Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is averaging an NFL-best 110.8 rushing yards per game in November and I look for that to continue. Seattle is one of the toughest road venues in the NFL and I expect that to be key in this game. Take the points.

JR O'Donnell

West Virginia -2

We are buyig that line move as the sharps have moved the line to - 2 and the Oster rolls with the Road Favorite tonight. Redhot on the CBB VENUE at 4-0 the last 4 and 10 units of profit we will now play & $$$$ the Mountaineers (8-3) who need to win tonight, and have Cincinnati beat UCONN on Saturday to win the Big East, because then it would be a three way tie, and the BCS Bowl bid would go to the team ranked the highest, and that would be #22 WVU. If Cincy losses, even with a win WVU is out, as Louisville beat them during the regular season. Neers are led by QB Geno Smith who leads the BE with 3471 yards passing, "25" TD and "5" INT. Also by WR Tavon Austin who is second in the nation in all purpose yards with 2086 total or an average of 189.6/g. On the defensive side they are led by Johan Miller who is #1 in the NCAA with 27.5 sacks ("4" vs Pitt last week). USF needs a win to become 6-6 and bowl eligible, but they have been outscored in the second half of all "6" losses. It doesn't help that #1 QB BJ Daniels doesn't look likely to play again with a shoulder injury, and Bobby Eveld will make his 3rd career start. Miller is licking his chops on that one. USF has lost "6" of the lat "7" after starting out 4-0, but their DL is second in the country in sacks.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

Philadelphia -3 over SEATTLE: The Eagles may be all but done for the playoffs, but this team will not give up. Andy Ried is 14-3 ATS during the 2nd half of the year when taking on a team that allows 235 ypg passing, while Seattle is 18-37 ATS since 1992, vs teams that average 7+ yards per passing attempt. The Eagles will be without Vick again this week, but Vince Young showed last week that he can move this offense that is 3rd overall, 10th in passing and 3rd in rushing. This is a strong offense even with Young at the help. He can beat you with both his legs and his arm. Tonight he gets to take on a decent overall Seattle defense, but one that struggles vs the pass, as they have allowed 239.6 ypg (20Th) overall and 247.8 ypg at home. With the addition of a few keep player on defense the were dubbed the dream team, but it hasn't panned out that way as they rank in the middle of the pack in most major defensive categories, but let us note that is has been their offense that has put them in bad situations for much of the year. The Eagles had been turning the ball over in bunches this year, but last week with Young behind center they had just 1. The Eagles defense should be able to come up big this week vs a Seattle offense that has struggled this year, as they are 30th overall, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and they have averaged just 16.8 ppg (26th). This is a bad Seattle offense that just won't put enough points on the board to keep this one close. If Philly has 1 TO or less this could be a blowout, but I will call for them to win by 10. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 1983 road teams off a 10+ point loss are 30-10 ATS if they average 23-27 ppg and are playing a team that averages 14-18 ppg.

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

South Florida/ West Virginia Under 55: Was there any doubt? LOL Let's talk series history for a second. These teams have met just 6 times in their history (each of the last 6 years) and not one of those games put up more than 49 points. Those 6 games have averaged just 35.5 ppg and the OU is 1-5. Granted I know that USF can score at home (36.7 ppg), but most of that was done in the early part of the year as they are struggling down the stretch, putting up just 21.3 ppg in their last 3 overall and just 10 ppg in their last 2 at home. The Bulls should have BJ Daniels back for this one and that means they will run the ball a bit more, and West Virginia is pretty good vs the run, allowing just 138 ypg (39th).The West Virginia defense had struggled during the middle of the year and they have allowed 33 ppg on the road, but they have played better of late, allowing just 20.5 ppg in their last 2 games. USF has struggled vs the pass and WVU comes in ranked 6th in passing, but I believe the Bulls can slow this attack down a bit here, plus this undermanned USF team with a less than 100% QB will try and limiit thre amount of series' that WVU will get, by running the ball and shortening the game. I see this as the 7th game in this series that will finish below 50 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Under when any team is playing on Thursday and they have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. This play is 35-10 to the Under the last 10 seasons.

BANG THE BOOK

West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+1.5, 55)

West Virginia went through a brief period of under-performance in late October and early November, but they have bounced back with consecutive narrow victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last two weeks. South Florida started the season with a big win at Notre Dame, and they went on to start out 4-0. It has been all downhill since then for the Bulls. South Florida has lost six of their last seven games. Can the Bulls get it back together and get back to .500?

Dana Holgorsen has brought a lot of changes to the West Virginia Mountaineers team. Under Bill Stewart the Mountaineers offense never really got on track, but this year West Virginia has the best offense in the Big East. Geno Smith has bought into the new system, and he is having a massive breakout season at quarterback. Smith has thrown 25 touchdowns and just five interceptions this season. Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin both have over 1,000 receiving yards this year. Eight players on this squad have at least ten catches, so Smith has plenty of targets on the outside. The Mountaineers are averaging 35 points per contest.

Most expected the Mountaineers defense to take a step back this year, and they certainly have. This unit ranked in the top ten in the country last year, but they rank 25th in total defense and 59th in points allowed per game in 2011. This is a young defense that has struggled against solid running games this year.

South Florida looked like it was ready for a big season after the first few weeks of the year, but things have completely fallen apart for Skip Holtz and this team. The offense was brilliant at the beginning of the season, but they have been held to 17 points or less in four of their last seven games. B.J. Daniels has improved at the quarterback spot this year, but he is dinged up right now. Daniels missed last week’s game, and he is listed as questionable for this one. If Daniels misses this game, the team will rely even more on the running game.

The Bulls defense has been a disappointment this year. Last season this unit was one of the best in the country. The front seven has been very good this year against the run, but the secondary has been terrible against the pass. This is certainly a cause for concern for the defensive coaches at South Florida because West Virginia is so good at spreading the field and airing it out. The Bulls must find a way to pressure Smith or it will be a long day for this defense.

West Virginia has more at stake in this game, and I think they have fewer question marks right now. Look for the Mountaineers to win this game and be in position to get the Big East’s BCS berth.

PICK: West Virginia Mountaineers- South Florida Bulls UNDER 50.5

Rocketman

Middle Tennessee St @ Tennessee St
Play: Tennessee St +4.5

Tennessee State went into South Carolina as 11 1/2 point underdogs and beat them outright and also played Western Kentucky tough losing by only 3 points to them. Tennessee State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Tennessee State is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Forward Robert Covington leads this Tennessee State team in scoring (16.9 ppg) and rebounds (7.1 rpg.) We are looking for Covington to get his averages and guard Patrick Miller to dish out some assists to help their team get the upset tonight. The public will be all over Middle Tennessee State in this game tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Tennessee State tonight!

SPORTS WAGERS

SEATTLE +3 +100 over Philadelphia

One never knows which Philadelphia team will show up but now that the playoffs are nothing but a 'dream', it would seem unreasonable to expect a strong effort from this troubled Eagles squad. What started out with great promise is ending on a very bitter note. Philly also has the unenviable task of flying through three time zones on a short week while the Seahawks get to host consecutive games here in Seattle. While the 'Seahags are among the league's weaklings, they have been competitive and that is reflected in their recent run of covering seven of past eight when taking points. Play: Seattle +3 +100 (No bets).

SOUTH FLORIDA +120 over West Virginia

It would be easy to recommend the Mountaineers seeing as they are the #23 ranked team in the nation with an 8-3 record playing an unranked opponent with a 5-6 record. Thing is, WVU is coming off a huge win at home in the Backyard Brawl over Pitt last week in a game they came from behind in and won a single point. This is undoubtedly a letdown spot and the pressure to win is still on them. The Mountaineers do not control their own destiny for a BCS bid or the Big East Title but there is still much on the line for them. The Bulls need a win also to be Bowl eligible but they lost the game they needed last week to Louisville. It was a disappointment but you can expect them to let it all hang out here. The best news for the Bulls is that QB B.J. Daniels returns. He’s a huge key ingredient to this offense against an overrated Mountaineer defense that can be shredded by any good QB. The books have made WVU an enticing 2½-point choice here in a featured game that is sure to attract a ton of action. If the Bulls show up and nothing suggests they won’t, they’re as good or better than this intruder despite what the records suggest. Play: South Florida +120 (Risking 2 units).

Columbus +210 over CALGARY (3-way betting line)

The Flames have reeled off two in a row for just the second time this season and the first time in over a month. Now they’re a substantial favorite over the Blue Jackets when they should not be a substantial favorite over anyone. On its best night, Calgary is beatable and with games upcoming against Northwest rivals and its two biggest rivals Edmonton and Vancouver, the Flames are in a vulnerable spot. The Jackets still have the fewest wins in the NHL but they’re playing much better and they’re coming off a solid effort in Vancouver. They lost that game 4-1 but don’t let the score fool you. They were all over the Canucks and were stymied by Cory Schneider, who had one of the finest games all year by any goaltender in the league. Anything close to that effort gets us to the cashier’s booth and once again we find some tremendous value on a Jackets club that at worst has just as good a chance of winning as the host. Big overlay. Play: Columbus +210 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +140 over WASHINGTON (3-way betting line)

We laid off the Blues last game in Washington only because we expected a “honeymoon surge” from the Capitals. It didn’t happen. Washington not only lost 2-1 to the Blue Notes but once again they were badly outplayed. At yesterday’s practice, Alex Ovechkin was the first player off the ice and while that may not mean anything, it is curious that the captain left first and at least two beat writers covering the practice made note of it. When Sidney Crosby and OV have met up in the past in big games, Sid the Kid has always come out on top. Whether it’s been in International play or the playoffs, Crosby brings his best and if the Pens had just gone through a coaching change we highly doubt that Crosby would be the first player off the ice after their first game together. The Pens are just so tough and anytime we can get them at a price to win in regulation you can pencil us in. A coaching change in Washington will not fix what ails this fragile host. Play: Pittsburgh +150 (Risking 2 units).

WINNIPEG +170 over Phoenix (3-way betting line)

The Phoenix Coyotes, formerly the Winnipeg Jets, return to the place they once called home. It’s some added interest to the game but it was a long time ago and none of the current Coyotes were ever a Jet. Phoenix is coming off perhaps its best game of the year in Chicago, a 4-1 win. Its stock is higher than it’s been all season and so it should be. The Coyotes don’t have any household names, nor will they dazzle anyone. What they do is play hard for 60 minutes every game and they’re always a tough out. Having said that, the Jets also play hard and you can double that at home where they are greatly energized by the most passionate fan base in the NHL. Winnipeg is coming off a 6-4 loss to the Sens but that was upon retuning home from a trip. They still managed to record 42 shots on net and score four times but some shaky goaltending prevented them from picking up the win. That was the Jets only loss in their past four home games. Over that span they’ve scored 19 goals and at least four in every contest. Three goals here might be enough and with Phoenix having won its last two and returning home to face Philadelphia after this one, we could certainly catch them playing with less urgency. Play: Winnipeg +170 (Risking 2 units).

DALLAS -½ +128 over OTTAWA

Nobody expected much out of the Senators this year but here we are, more than a quarter of the schedule into the season and Ottawa is right in the thick of things, just four points out of third in the conference. The Sens have a good mixture of vets and youth and if you haven’t seen Erik Karlsson play yet, you’re missing out. The Sens are likely going to offer up some strong value all season in the role of the underdog but this one is all about playing against them in a very difficult spot. Ottawa had just returned home from playing six on the road and they defeated the Hurricanes 4-3. They subsequently headed out for a game in Winnipeg with just one day off in between. They’ll now play its second game on the road after six at home and one more on the road. That’s nine straight games in which they’ve had to board a plane and travel to its next destination. That’s almost unfair and one has to trust that the Sens will be running on fumes here. Andrew Raycroft has taken over for the injured Kari Lehtonen and no goaltender in the league looks more relaxed than Raycroft. He’s given the Stars a tremendous boost when they’ve needed it most. This is really a favorable scheduling spot for the Stars, who should simply have plenty more gas in the tank than the opposition. Play: Dallas -½ +125 (Risking 2 units).

Passing College Baskets

DAVID BANKS

Eagles / Seahawks Under

Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night at Centurylink Field in Seattle where both the Seahawks (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (4-7, 4-7 ATS) will continue closing out their disappointing seasons; the NFL Network will cover this NFC battle starting at 8:20 ET.

After falling at home last week to the New England Patriots, the 2011-12 campaign for the supposed “Dream Team” has more or less come to an end. For a team that went out and spent megabucks on high-prized free agents in the off-season, the Eagles have let their fan base down in a very big way. It's been almost impossible to gauge what this team will bring to the field every passing week. One week, they go out and blow the doors off the division rival Dallas Cowboys at home, but then follow it up with embarrassing defeats to both Chicago and Arizona the next two weeks. After going into the Meadowlands and scoring the 17-10 outright road win and cover with Vince Young leading the offense, the Eagles were simply no match for the Patriots last week at home. Because of it, the Eagles now bring up the rear of the NFC East along with the Washington Redskins; not exactly where NFL bettors expected this team to be at this point in the season.

The Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West last season, but not many gave Head Coach Pete Carroll's team a chance to repeat as division champions. However, this team entered last week's home battle against the Washington Redskins winners of two in a row after shocking the Baltimore Ravens 22-17 in a major letdown spot as seven point home underdogs and following it up with a 24-7 domination of the division rival St. Louis Rams on the road. Even though Seattle currently sits three games under .500 heading into this match-up, the Seahawks have gone 6-4-1 against the closing pointspread with four of those ATS triumphs coming against winning teams. However, Centurylink Field had long been an impossible venue for the opposition to go into and win, but the Seahawks stand just 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as a host this season. Seattle is 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS against the NFC East this season.

Tonight's matchup marks the first meeting between these teams in three seasons. The road team has won and covered each of the last six skirmishes with the Eagles last going into Seattle and beating the Seahawks by a 26-7 final count as seven-point favorites. Philadelphia is 6-3 SU & ATS as a road favorite of three points or less the L/3 seasons, but has failed to cover each of its L/5 games against losing teams. Seattle's managed to win just two of its L/8 December match ups, but has cached five of the last six times it was dogged at home.

SAFEST WAGERING

Another opening line surprise for many. Although 8-3, West Virginia has thrown in some flat performances. Syracuse beat them handily, looking like they had gotten an early look at their playbook. Their loss to Louisville was also a surprise, but Louisville's offense has improved lots the 2nd half of the season. Although The Mountaineers are ranked 22nd in the BCS standings there's a pretty big dropoff after #17 (Baylor). Their tackle Julian Miller, is arguably one of the biggest sack threats in college. They have better all-around talent, but often lack focus.

Two things that push me in West Virginia's direction.

1) They pretty much just win, even if it's with last minute heroics.

2) And... against similar competition their passing offense is ranked 6th, while The Bulls often have trouble with blown coverages (Pass D ranked 82nd).

USF's backs are banged up, and they don't have much depth in the secondary. For what it's worth: The line is moving in in W. Virginia's favor, while the majority of bettors are also backing The Mountaineers. The big money is on The Bulls.

I think they are wrong this evening.

Take the West Virginia Mountaineers -1

WUNDERDOG

Arkansas State at St. Bonaventure
Pick: Arkansas State +11.5

St. Bonaventure has come a long way over the last two years, and they have themselves a team capable of finishing in the middle of the Atlantic-10. They have a bona fide NBA prospect in Andrew Nicholson. The Red Wolves are getting no respect here because they scored 27 against Louisville, but to their credit, they came back and won their next game and have been competitive unless they have stepped in over their head in competition. That won't be the case here. The Bonnies don't have much of a home-court advantage at 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 including 4-11 ATS as a favorite of -7 to -12.5. Play Arkansas State in this one.

Andrew Lange

Florida International at Georgia State
Play: Florida International +9.5

Over the last two years, Florida International has lost 19 games to non-power conference opponents. Not really a sign of a good team, right? But it is the manner in which they lost that intrigues me. Of those 19 games, 16 were by single digits, and two others by 10 and 12. Only once have we seen this team blown out against a comparable foe. Head coach Isiah Thomas recently noted how impressed he was with his team's toughness and willingness to never quit. There is one blemish on FIU's resume – a bad loss to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Panthers won at George Mason, hung with Virginia Tech for 30 minutes, lost by eight to a respectable Oral Robert squad and just defeated a Coastal Carolina team that has wins over LSU and Clemson. Georgia State is what I like to call a "Ken Pom team". They are currently ranked 125th, ahead of a host of teams they would be underdogs to on a neutral court. GSU's resume is nothing spectacular. They hung with but lost to Portland and Florida Atlantic in a neutral site setting then reeled off four straight wins against lower-tier non-boarded teams. Also consider that Georgia State opens Colonial play on Saturday. I think GSU is without question improved, but that have absolutely no track record laying this type of price.