Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 12

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL Picks

Columbus at NY Rangers
The Rangers try to snap a four-game home losing streak tonight against a Columbus team that is coming off a 5-4 win over New Jersey and is 1-7 in its last 8 games coming off a victory. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145)

Game 1-2: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.069; Philadelphia 12.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over

Game 3-4: Columbus at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.994; NY Rangers 12.322
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under

Game 5-6: Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.001; Tampa Bay 10.812
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over

Game 7-8: Buffalo at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.908; Ottawa 11.605
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-200); Under

Game 9-10: Toronto at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.804; St. Louis 12.473
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240); Under

Game 11-12: Colorado at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.967; Winnipeg 12.083
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+100); Over

Game 13-14: Dallas at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.149; Nashville 12.544
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-110); Under

Game 15-16: Carolina at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.027; Calgary 11.068
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-110); Over

Game 17-18: NY Islanders at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.216; Phoenix 10.322
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 19-20: Boston at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.267; Edmonton 10.529
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under

Game 21-22: Minnesota at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.735; San Jose 12.677
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Under

Joe Gavazzi

LA Clippers -6

Always looking to favor the far superior Western Conference teams when they visit the lowly East (take a look at the standings) this is an especially good spot. Under 1st year HC Stevens, the newly integrated Celtics have struggled mightily against winning teams in their 10-13 start. And Clippers are glad to add to that misery as they make this an “A game” for HC Rivers in his return to Boston Gardens. Always like playing the better team when they have a reason to play.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Brooklyn Nets +3

A tough situational spot for the LA Clippers, dealing with depth problems because of injuries and playing their 6th straight game away from home. They are 3,000 miles from home and playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Brooklyn has had a day off and this will only be their 2nd game in 5 nights. The Nets are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 vs. the NBA Pacific. The home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings and the Clippers are 1-12 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Brooklyn! Play the Brooklyn Nets.

Rob Vinciletti

Maryland vs. Boston College
Play: Maryland -2½

An early season conference game here for these two teams as both come in off back to back losses having shot less than 40% back to back. Maryland has better numbers in this one as they are 23-2 vs teams who allow 77 or more points per game and 18-2 in their last 20 vs teams under .500. In December games Maryland has won 12 of the last 14. The Terrapins are a terrific 501 vs teams ranked outside the top 50 in the RPI Scale. Boston College has struggled early on losing 6 of 9 and is a mediocre 11-34, including 0-4 this season vs teams with a winning record. Lay the small number with Maryland here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Carlos Salazar

Houston at Portland
Play: Over 211.5

Look for scoring and more scoring tonight as both teams will be putting up shot early and often in the shot clock. Both teams average better than 106 points per game and this one will go over with ease.

Carlos Salazar's Featured Package

Brandon Shively

Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Under 57½

This is the Bronco's last home game of the season and considering both teams are playing on a short week of rest and in cold weather, I expect a game that will see more running than passing. Denver won the first matchup, 28-20, as the game stayed Under the total of 56. Tonight, the total is once again posted at 56 which I feel is too high considering this is a divisional game. Peyton Manning is 3-0 SU now vs. the Chargers as a Denver Bronco with an average score of 31-22, which is an average of 53 points a game. I know Peyton has a full arsenal of weapons to throw the ball to, but Wes Welker and his 10 touchdowns will be missed as he is listed as doubtful for this game. Considering that the Chargers are giving up 4.8 yards per carry this year and the Broncos are rushing for 188 yards a game over the last 3 games, I further believe that Denver will try to solidify a running game which will use more clock and there will be less scoring. While both teams will move the ball, I expect some drives to come up short and field goals being the end result.
Denver doesn't have much to prove. They are more-less getting prepared for the playoffs and this being a divisional game where both teams know each other well, look for the final score to be in 31-20 range.

Trends:

Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Thursday games.
Play on : San Diego / Denver UNDER the TOTAL

Red Dog Sports

Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Over 56

Take the over on Thursday night. Denver has 11 overs and just 2 unders this year. The QB's (Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers) are solid passers and the rules are helping the offenses. This total is in the upper 50's and will be our free play for Thursday. I have seen 56 and 57 so check for the best total. Hopefully, both teams can get to 27 and we can see a final in the 60's.

Ben Burns

Houston vs. Portland
Pick: Portland

Talk about getting no respect. The Blazers are 18-4 on the season, best in the West. They're playing at home and looking to avenge an earlier loss. Yet, they're barely favored.

Sure, the Rockets have played very well recently. They're still only 5-4 away from Houston though.

While they are expected to get Lin back - the Rockets will be without Omer Asik. That may not sound like a big deal for a team which has Dwight Howard. However, Asik quietly played an important role in the earlier win. He had eight points and five rebounds in 22 minutes, while helping to keep the Blazers out of the paint and helping to get Lopez in foul trouble. "Little things" like that can often win and lose games.

Also, having Lin back, assuming he returns - after he missed six games - may take a bit of getting used to.

The Blazers are scoring 106.5 points per game at home, allowing 100.2. While the Rockets average an impressive 110.2 points per game away from Houston, they also allow a whopping 109.3.

While the Rockets are 5-8 ATS against teams which allow 99 or more points per game, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS against such teams. They're also 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. With the line having come down a little from its opener, I like their chances here. Consider Portland.

Doug Upstone

Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Play: Detroit Red Wings +106

Pavel Datsyuk returned to the lineup this week and is a big boost for the Detroit Red Wings as they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday. Detroit has been a bit unlucky, losing 8 games in overtime. Underrated Jonas Gustavsson will start at goalie and has been solid this year, positing a 93% save percentage. Go with the Red Wings in Tampa on Thursday night.

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San Diego (+10) 26 DENVER 35FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Broncos come into this divisional matchup off of a 51-28 home win against the Titans where after falling behind 10-21 in the first half, they proceeded to outscore the Chargers 41-7 the rest of the way, rolling up 552 yards of offense at 6.3 yppl to 254 total yards for Tennessee at 5.3 yppl. That has been par for the course this season as the Denver offense has been unstoppable, averaging 468 yards per game at 6.5 yppl to teams that allow 370 yards at 5.7 yppl. The one statistical area of weakness for the Broncos this year has been their pass defense, and that should make this an interesting matchup, and a high scoring game. Philip Rivers is having an excellent year and as a result the Chargers main strength is their passing offense which averages 289 yards at 7.7 yps against teams that allow 247 yards at 6.4 yps on average. These teams should be able to throw the ball with little resistance despite the cold weather and with Denver missing WR Wes Welker as he recovers from a concussion. I’m not sure the Chargers will be able to keep up as Denver qualifies in 280-171-14, 136-67-5 and 15-4 situations while the Chargers have to travel on a short week for this contest. San Diego also benefits from a negative 15-44 situation that plays against the Broncos here and my model only favors Denver by -8.6 so we have conflicting situations and line value which will lead me to pass. With the ability to score points, I’ll lean to the Chargers plus the large number as they still have some playoff hope and will look to avenge their 20-28 loss earlier this season.

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San Diego Chargers +10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Do you dare step in front of the Bronco's train on a Thursday night home game? I'll give it a shot catching double digits with Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. San Diego needs a win to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive and the Chargers are 9-5-1 against the spread in the last fifteen games in this series. Peyton Manning is just five touchdown passes away from breaking Tom Brady's single season passing touchdown record, but Chargers quarterback is also have a great season having thrown for 26 touchdowns himself. This is a very difficult matchup for San Diego's leaky defense but thing's on the defensive side for the Broncos have been vulnerable as well. The Chargers have the weapons to move the ball and score against Denver and they are also getting healthier. Veteran players including linebacker Melvin Ingram, receiver Eddie Royal, outside linebacker Jarret Johnson and left tackle King Dunlap all returned to action last week for San Diego's big win over the New York Giants. I like the Chargers to make a game out of this. Take the points.

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS DENVER BRONCOSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: DENVER BRONCOS -10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Diego Chargers are an okay football team. They’re 6-7, one game out of the second AFC Wild Card, and they’ve been right there in virtually every game they’ve played all season. But they haven’t played any of those games in Denver.
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The Broncos are ridiculous at home. They’ve won 13 straight at Mile High. The smallest margin of victory is seven points, and that was last season. The average margin of victory in the 13 wins is just under 20 points per game. This season, the Broncos are 7-0 by more than 20 ppg, and all the wins are by double digits.
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This is the regular season home finale for Denver. The Broncos are in the playoffs, but they need to keep winning to get the home field throughout the AFC post-season. They’re up one game on New England, but because they lost to the Patriots, they can’t afford to lose. Make no mistake, the Broncos do not want to have to visit Foxboro for the marbles.
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I’d like to be able to dissect this matchup and find some good reason to fade the public and back the Chargers. I can’t do it. Denver was in a considerable flat spot last week vs. the Titans and played that way early. Then they got the offense cranked up and that was all she wrote. They’re likely to do the same here. The Chargers don’t have a good defense and Peyton Manning figures to beat them senseless all night long.
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The number is huge and laying doubles in the NFL has never been a recipe for long term success. But I think spotting the big digits tonight is the right way to play, if for no other reason than I don’t like the idea of stepping in front of a freight train. I’ll go with Denver minus the points.

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Detroit at Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit +105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit continues its southern road swing as they head into Tampa Bay tonight as small underdogs. The Red Wings are coming off a disappointing loss on Tuesday night in Florida where they squandered a 2-0 lead in the third period and lost in a shootout. Carrying the play for most of the game the Red Wings had some mental lapses that cost them the game. The good news is they face a Tampa Bay team that has been really struggling offensively with Steven Stamkos out of the lineup. Losing four of their last five games the Lightning had better get healthy quick if they want to remain in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt. At this price, I think we get plenty of value on Detroit which has shown throughout the year that they can win on the road (10-3-2).

John Ryan

Florida Atlantic at DePaul
Play: Florida Atlantic

The simulator shows a high probability that FA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. SIM projects that FA will shoot between 47 and 53% from the field. In past games, they are a rock solid 9-2 ATS when shooting between 47 and 53% form the field in games played over the past two seasons. FA is a strong rebounding team  and have gotten 42+ boards in three of their last four games. DePaul is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when facing solid rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. DePaul defense is horrid having allowed 51% shooting or worse in four straight games and in 6 of the 8 games played this season. Take Florida Atlantic.