Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 13

Matt Fargo

Washington vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle

Seattle is playing its first season in the WAC after three years as an independent and while it probably won't contends for a conference championship, this is not a bad team at all. The Redhawks closed last season by going 8-3 over their final 11 games and they came into this season with some extra time together. In late August, Seattle left for a two-week basketball tour of China. The Redhawks visited Beijing, Fuxin, Qianjiang and Heze.and they played five games while gaining some very valuable extra time and practice together. They are 3-3 this year including a 2-1 record at home, losing their last game at Elgin Baylor Court at Key Arena against Boise St. Seattle closed last season by winning eight straight there and the place will be energetic tonight during this game in what used to be a huge rivalry. Washington is playing its first road game of the season and this will not be an easy environment to play in. adding to that is the fact that the Huskies are not playing very good anyway as they are 4-4 including three true home court defeats. The offense has been playing well as usual but the defense has been a big problem as they have allowed 72 or more points in five of their last six games. Playing in their first road game is bad enough but laying a big number makes it even worse for Washington. Seattle falls into a great situation also where we play against road teams as an favorite or pickem coming off a home loss by three points or less, playing only their 2nd game in eight days. This situation is 82-43 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1997.

Ray Monohan

Washington vs. Seattle
Play: Washington

I can’t quite explain it but the PAC 12 is bad, partly because of the Huskies I am telling you to back. Losses to Albany and Colorado State weren’t pretty but losing to Nevada was not as bad as you might think. Pride is on the line as they play Seattle. The talent is of course on the Washington side of the court and they have never lost to their little brothers though last year’s 8 point victory was closer than expected. I know Washington is a little creepy right now but don’t forget that this Seattle team gave up 83 points in a 40 point loss to Virginia. That is significant because the Cavaliers are not that good and never score like that. I think Seattle will have trouble putting enough points on the board to keep this one in single digits.

Rob Vinciletti

Lakers vs. Knicks
Play: Under

Tonight is the return of coach Dantoni to the Garden. The total has been rising since it opened in this one with the anticipation of a possible shootout here. However with the total nearing 210 this high scoring affair may not materialize tonight, as I expect coach Woodson will have the Knicks put an emphasis on defense in this one. The Lakers have struggled to find their identity this year and are just 9-13. This game fits a nice little totals system that has gone under 10 of the last 12 times and plays to the under for home favorites of 5 or more points with 1 day of rest that scored 100 or more as a road favorite of 5 or more, which applies to the Knicks, vs an opponent like the Lakers that scored 90 or more as a road favorite in their last game, provided the total here tonight is posted at 190 or higher. In the series the last 4 between these two have stayed under the total. The Lakers have gone under both times on the road when the total is posted between 205 and 210 and 4 of 5 vs non conference teams. The Knicks have played under both times as a home favorite in this spread range and 25 of 36 times when playing off a division game. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight.

Ben Burns

Washington vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

After back to back double-digit O/U winners with Monday and Tuesday's complimentary selections, last night's play on the Utah Jazz resulted in an outright win over the Spurs.

Off a 4-0 sweep with his premium selections and looking to move to 4-0 with this week's free opinions, Burns switches to the college hardwood on Thursday.

I'm already 2-0 with this Seattle team this season. I successfully backed the Redhawks in their first game, a blowout win over Montana State.

I also played on the Redhawks in their most recent game, an outright upset at Eastern Washington.

While the Huskies certainly represent a big step up in class, I feel that the Redhawks are again providing excellent value.

Its not uncommon to see "smaller" schools play with added emotion when matched up against a lager school from within their state.

My play on Portland State last night was a perfect example. The Vikings were hosting "instate rival" Oregon State. Fired up at a chance to knock off a school from a larger conference, the Vikings came out on fire, eventually earning the cover.

Facing the "mighty" Huskies, I expect the Redhawks to also come out with some added intensity here.

The Huskies are just 2-3 ATS as favorites this season. They're also 2-3 ATS the last few seasons, as road favorites in the 6.5 to 9 range.

The Redhawks hung within eight points of Washington last season. Now a member of the WAC Conference, the Redhawks catch the Huskies dealing with a few bangs and bruises, while still adjusting to life without Terrence Ross and Tony Wroten Jr, last year's leading scorers.

Playing with a chip on their shoulder, I expect the Redhawks to give their "high profile" guests all that they can handle. Consider taking the points.

JR ODonnell

Tennessee Pk

Vols get the "Oster" call.. They are a rested ball club...last game loser December 5th to Virginai The "Defensive" minded SEC power at the Thompson-Boling Arena will scrape out a W.. We will send it in two fisted on the Vols at a "Pickem" These Vols play Defense... they have held there opponents to 57 ppg so far... They also hold a + 5 margin on the boards... Cuonzo Martin has these guys tested and tough... Vols punch in @ 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Tony George

LA Lakers +6.5

Throw the Lakers under the bus after a bad streak and put them on national TV against a red hot Knicks team and then give them 7 points Kobe being called out, the Lakers head coach returns back to where he was fired a year ago Knicks look unbeatable as of late? Sure fire trap line, grab the points. I have seen this scenario too many times. Value in the NUMBER. And last I checked, sports gambling is betting into numbers, not games. Average home team in the NBA wins by 3.3 points per game the last 5 years. I seriously doubt you should leave the Lakers as dead in the water this NBA season, all things are cyclical in the NBA with good teams.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati -4 over PHILADELPHIA

Have to admire Philadelphia’s comeback win over the Bucs last week and game effort against Dallas the week before but not sure if this battered team can compete for a third consecutive week. They’ll have less time to prepare and as we’ve seen all year on these short weeks, the superior team usually wins them. Philly’s win last week is separated from their only other win, nine games prior. The Eagles will also go from exploiting the Buccaneers horrible pass defense to playing a stellar Bengals group.

The Bengals were off their game last week and it was obvious when A.J. Green dropped several passes including one sure touchdown. The same is unlikely to occur with a wildcard berth at stake. Cincinnati’s defence has allowed just 62 points over its past five games while the Eagles have allowed 151 points over that same span. We’ve seen these Cats defeat the Giants and the Redskins already. There’s little reason to believe that they can’t do the same to this meeker NFC East opponent. No units risked.

NEW YORK -6½ over L.A. Lakers

The Knicks’ shots continue to fall. Not only has New York defeated Miami twice this season, both by 20 points and the latter without Carmelo Anthony, they’ve also won at San Antonio and gone 8-0 at home. With a seemingly unlimited amount of bench talent and shooters, the Knicks can no longer be overlooked as a team that got off to a hot start. The Gardens will be rocking tonight with the Lakers in town and Mike D’Antoni returning since he was fired (resigned) last year.

Since the puzzling hiring of D’Antoni, the Lakers have gone 4-8. On the road, L.A. has two wins in nine tries. Kobe doesn’t get the calls on the road like he gets at home meaning he doesn’t get to the foul line every time someone breathes on him. Yeah, the Lakers want this one badly but they continue to falter and with no bench and a clueless coach, the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here. Not often are the Lakers offered this many points. However, this year’s Lakers have shown nothing to suggest they can compete with this hungry, extremely motivated and focused host.

Jim Feist

Charlotte Bobcats at Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Atlanta Hawks

4th game in 6 nights for the Bobcats, who've had to run with the Spurs, Clippers and now the Hawks. Their defense has been dreadful the last three weeks and all season, 29th in points allowed. The Bobcats are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games and 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. That weak Charlotte offense and defense has to face a tough Atlanta team, one fifth in the NBA in assists and 6th in points allowed and the Hawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. Play the Hawks.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

The Bengals are playoff contenders, but seem phony to me. Their surge came against some weak teams. The Eagles fit on that count, but got some life with the rally last week at Tampa. I see Philly as a live home dog tonight.

Jack Jones

San Antonio Spurs -7

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated to bounce back from a very tough loss at Utah last night. They were beaten on a last-second 3-pointer at the buzzer by Mo Williams. Losing isn't something this team gets used to.

San Antonio is still 18-5 on the season, and it has not lost back-to-back games all year. Following their previous four losses, the Spurs have bounced back with three wins by 11 points or more as well as a 99-95 victory over a very tough Memphis team. This has been a resilient bunch as you can see.

Portland is certainly down this season at 9-12, and things don't appear to be getting any better. Nicolas Batum (16.4 PPG) and Wesley Matthews (16.0 PPG), two of their top four scorers, missed their last game against Toronto.

Both Batum and Mathews are questionable to return tonight, and even if they can go I still like the Spurs to cover this generous number. If these two can't go they are in a world of hurt considering they have the lowest-scoring bench in the league at 15.3 points/game.

The Spurs are 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest. They are also a ridiculous 55-23-5 ATS in their last 83 games overall. The Blazers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.

Jimmy Boyd

San Antonio Spurs -7

The Spurs just played in Utah last night and lost, but I expect them to bounce back strong here. San Antonio is 4-1 in the second of back-to-back games this season, with the only loss coming when Popovich infamously rested four starters in Miami. The Spurs are an awesome 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers have had two days' rest but are just 7-18-3 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on two days' rest.

The Spurs are an outstanding 55-23-5 ATS in their last 83 games overall. They are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss, 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

The Spurs won by three points in Portland earlier this season, covering the 2.5-point spread despite being without Tony Parker who sat out the contest with the flu. With Parker in the lineup for this contest, I expect the Spurs to widen their margin of victory.

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Spurs.

DAVID BANKS

Bengals / Eagles Under 45

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-9, 3-9-1 ATS) ended their eight-game losing streak at Tampa Bay last week, and they now get another chance to play spoiler vs. the Cincinnati Bengals (7-6. 6-6-1) Thursday from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 8:20 ET on NFL Network. The Bengals blew a late lead at home in a 20-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, leaving Cincinnati tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the second and last wild card spot in the AFC with those two teams on a collision course to settle things head-to-head in the regular season finale.

The Eagles' rookie quarterback Nick Foles just keeps getting better every week, and he had his best game yet vs. the Buccaneers as he completed 32-of-51 passes for a whopping 381 yards an two touchdowns, and he led Philadelphia back from an 11-point deficit as his two touchdown passes both came in the last four minutes including the game winner on the final play of the game, crippling the Bucs' playoff hopes by dropping them to 6-7. Putting things in perspective though, Foles accomplished that vs. the worst passing defense in the NFL as Tampa Bay is surrendering a distressing 311.1 passing yards per game. He will not have things nearly as easy this week vs. a Cincinnati pass defense that ranks 10th at 221.6 yards and seventh in defensive passing average at only 6.2 yards per attempt. Furthermore, the Bengals lead the NFL with their 41 sacks and Geno Atkins, who just may be the best defensive tackle in football, could wreak havoc with the suspect Eagles' offensive line. Thus Philadelphia will need a much improved effort from running back Bryce Brown, who somehow had six yards on 12 carries vs. the Bucs after looking so impressive in his first two starts.

The Bengals ran into a very emotional Dallas team playing the day after the untimely death of practice squad player Jerry Brown, and Cincinnati did outgain the Cowboys by 48 yards. Andy Dalton completed 20-of-33 passes for 206 yards and running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis remained hot with 89 rushing yards on only 18 carries. Both can have success here vs. an Eagles' defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 4.2 yards per rush. Furthermore A.J. Green, who might be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now, uncharacteristically had a couple of drops and he figures to bounce back strong as he usually does, Plus this is a huge game for the Bengals, who must remain no worse than tied with the Steelers heading into the season finale because Pittsburgh won the first meeting. Now the Bengals have not fared well vs. teams with winning records the last two years but they have gotten fat vs. losing teams, and the Eagles fit that category at 4-9.

In fact, Cincinnati is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams with losing straight up records. The Bengals are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games while the Eagles are an abysmal 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games including 0-5-1 ATS at home this season.

Charlie Sports

Wichita State Shockers at Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Wichita State Shockers

The (9-0) Wichita State Shockers of the Missouri Valley Conference will take on the (4-3) Tennessee Volunteers of the SEC East division in 2012 NCAA Basketball action. The over is 8-2 Wichita State last 10 NCAA Basketball games on the road. Tennessee is 12-4-1 Against The Spread their last 17 at home. The Shockers have covered 4 of their last 5 ATS. Wichita State gets the road cover.

Hollywood Sports

San Antonio at Portland
Prediction: Over

San Antonio (18-5) is looking to bounce-back from their 99-96 loss at Utah last night (as a 4-point favorite) courtesy of the Jazz's Mo Williams nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointer that put that game away. The Spurs have played 4 straight straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Greg Popovich's team has also seen the Over go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games played without a day of rest. Furthermore, Portland (9-12) is 5-4 at home this season -- and the Spurs have played a money-making 48 of their last 71 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Trail Blazers look to build off the momentum of their 92-74 blowout win against Toronto on Monday. Portland has played 4 straight gams Over the Total after a double-digit victory. And with the Spurs being 11-3 on the road, these team trends are complemented by the fact that the Trail Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Take the Over in this one.