Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 15

David Chan

Vancouver Canucks @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

The 18-10-2 Vancouver Canucks storm into Carolina to take on the 9-18-5 Hurricanes.

The Canucks are coming off a 2-1 OT loss to Columbus on Tuesday.

I fully expect Vancouver to get back on track here; note that it had won four in a row previous to that set back, and nine of ten overall and its last five on the road.

The Canucks remain confident:

“In my mind, that’s a much better team than their record indicates,” Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault said. “You can say it many times, but there are no easy games in this league. There might be a perception that we’re going to step on the ice and win it very easily. You don’t win games easily in this league. Tonight was another example.”

The Hurricanes are also coming off a 2-1 OT loss at Toronto on Tuesday.

Carolina is in a free-fall right now; it is last in the Eastern Conference, and faces an uphill battle without leading scorer Jeff Skinner in the lineup.

The last time these teams met, Vancouver hammered the Hurricanes 5-1, and I expect a similar result tonight as the Canucks kick the 'Canes while they're down; all signs point to a comfortable Vancouver victory!

Jim Feist

Oral Roberts vs Gonzaga
Pick: Over

Gonzaga's run and gun offense has been slowed down the last two games by defensive teams Illinois and Michigan State, both losses. Now they get to get back to what they like best, running and scoring against Oral Roberts. The over is 7-1-1 in the Golden Eagles last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Gonzaga dropped in the polls following its first loss, so look for the talented offense to put on a run-and-gun show. Play Oral Roberts/Gonzaga Over the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Atlanta/ Jacksonville Over 42.5: The Jacksonville offense has been playing better of late and it starts with Jones-Drew, who now has five straight games of 100-plus total yards, combining for 745 yards (149 YPG) over this stretch, Plus Blaine Gabbart has also been playing well with 412 passing yards, 4 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. The Atlanta defense comes in 5th vs the run and if theyu are able to stop Drew then that will force Gabbart to throw and Atlanta is not great vs the pass. The Falcons come in ranked 22nd vs the pass this year, allowing 241.2 ypg and what could make matters worse is that their top cornerbacks, Kelvin Hayden (toe) and Brent Grimes (knee) may not able to return to the field this week. The Jags are very good vs the pass this year as they rank 4th in that category, but Matt Ryan has bee on a tear as he has thrown for 299 ypg with 14 TD's and just 4 IINT's in his last 6 games, and he will be taking on a depleted Jags secondary. Both offenses are playing very well right now, while both defenses have injury problems in their secondaries. The Jags have nothing to play for any more so i really look for them to continue to open up the playbook down the stretch, while Atlanta's offense will continue to roll down the stretch as they fight for a playoff spot. KEY TREND--- Since 1992 the OU is 22-10 during the 2nd half of the season when the Jags take on a team that averages 350+ ypg.

BANG THE BOOK

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 42.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be playing in their third NFL betting affair over the course of just 11 days on Thursday, as they head to the Georgia Dome to tango with the Atlanta Falcons.

The Jaguars hadn’t scored more than 20 points in a game all season long in their first 12 games of the year. That all changed last week when the team put up 28 in the second quarter alone en route to a 41-14 romp over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was the first win in the coaching career of interim coach Mel Tucker, who is going to try to keep winning games down the stretch to prove that he can indeed be the full-time head coach of this team. The man of the hour last week was RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who had the day of his season and one of the best days of his career. MJD 85 yards as a rusher and 51 as a receiver, and he found the end zone a total of four times on the day. Jones-Drew now has 1,222 rushing yards and 348 yards as a receiver to go with 10 total scores. He is on a pace for just over 1,500 rushing yards, and he needs to pick it up just a bit if he is going to reach the 2,000 all-purpose yardage mark this season.

The Falcons are closing in on a playoff berth, but this is a game that they can’t let slip away. They are currently at 8-5 and a game up on the rest of the field for the Wild Card slots in the conference, and they are two back with three to play of the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. Losing this game would probably end any chances of winning the division, though we must admit that Atlanta does have a relatively easy schedule left, save for a road game at those Saints next week. The Falcons had a huge second half against the Carolina Panthers last week, including two TD receptions by WR Julio Jones and four total touchdown passes by QB Matt Ryan. The defense has shown some weakness at times, but the truth of the matter is that the team really hasn’t had a bad game since going up to CenturyLink Field against the Seattle Seahawks. The team has only averaged allowing 17.1 points per game against since then, and that includes games against the Panthers twice, the Saints, Packers, and Lions, teams that are simply awesome on offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons Trends: The Falcons improved to a sturdy 7-2 ATS in their last nine December games with last week’s victory. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The last time that Atlanta was beaten in a game SU at home by a team that wasn’t a playoff team was against the 2008 Denver Broncos, a team that finished 8-8 and only just barely missed out on winning the AFC West. Ryan hasn’t lost a home game against a team that is going to finish out a year below-.500 in his career.

PICK: Atlanta Falcons -11

Matt Fargo

Dallas Stars vs. New York Islanders
Play: Dallas Stars

This is the fourth game of a five-game roadtrip for Dallas and a win ensures a winning trek and it looks to avenge a loss to the Islanders from 12 days ago. The Stars have taken the last two games as they have allowed just one goal combined against the Kings and Rangers and that can be attributed to recalled goalie Richard Bachman who was brought up following an injury to Kari Lehtonen. Bachman has played in the last three games, including starting the last two, and stopped 71 of 72 shots on goal. The Islanders have lost three straight games, the most recent taking place in Montreal on Tuesday, but a return home may not be the cure to their ills. After starting the season 3-1 on the island, New York is just 3-6-3 in its last 12 home games, including losses in five of its last six. The Islanders have dropped every game this season that has gone past regulation, losing four times and twice by way of shootout. New York is tied with Los Angeles for the fewest goals in the league with 65. While they can't score, the defense has been an issue for the Islanders as well. They are ranked 27th in goals-against average at 3.25 per game and while goalie Al Montoya has been decent most of the season, he has allowed 10 goals over his last two starts. He will likely sit tonight though but that does not give New York as edge as Evgeni Nabokov is just 1-5 in eight games played with a 2.83 GAA. Dallas has been inconsistent on the offensive end but this could be the much needed breakout game. As mentioned, this is a revenge game. The Stars allowed five goals in that loss to New York and that matched a season high for goals for New York. The Islanders are 9-26 in their last 35 games coming off a road loss including going 3-14 in 17 games coming off a road loss by two or more goals. Dallas meanwhile is 21-8 in its last 29 games after allowing one goal or less in its last game. The Stars are 8-2-1 at New York since the start of the 1996-97 season.

Rob Vinciletti

Edmonton Oilers vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Phoenix Coyotes

Phoenix treks back home After last nights loss In Anaheim and takes on an Edmonton team with 3 days rest and Revenge. So why the heck are we on Phoenix in this obvious scheduling disadvantage. If this were the NBA We would take the rested 3+ day revenger. However here is why we aren't tonight. The Oilers are a horrendous 2-15 with 3 or more days rest. Phoenix has not had trouble at home with no rest winning 3 of the last 4 times. In the series the Coyotes have won 5 of the last 6 here vs Edmonton. The Oilers have lost 42 of the last 52 after scoring 1 or less goal. Look for Phoenix to get the win here tonight.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is to look for just enough offense on the scoreboard at the Georgia Dome to get the Jaguars-Falcons game over the posted total.

Both teams have been definite under teams this season, but last week both the Jaguars and the Falcons were involved in some high-scoring affairs, as the Jags sailed over the total at home versus Tampa Bay, while the Falcons were and easy over against Carolina.

That makes two in a row over for Jacksonville, and with both their secondary and the Atlanta secondary resembling a M.A.S.H. unit as the season winds down, expect both Blaine Gabbert and Matt Ryan to have success through the air in this game.

The total stands right around 42 1/2-points, and I feel certain we will see six combined touchdowns in this game with a couple of field goals sprinkled in for good measure.

Back the over tonight in the climate-controlled Georgia Dome.

2♦ OVER

MATT RIVERS

Thursday's free play winner is the Jags-Falcons game to hold under the posted total.

Jacksonville brings a two game over roll into tonight's game, while Atlanta just played to an over on Sunday at Carolina. The recent spate of "high-scoring" outbursts from the two teams is really a mirage though, as Jacksonville is 10-3 under the total for the season, while Atlanta had been on an eight game under run prior to Sunday's over, and for the season the Falcons are 9-4 under the total.

Jacksonville will look to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan's mitts, so expect some ball control offense with a steady diet of Maurice Jones-Drew trying to take huge chunks of time off the clock.

I just feel the under trends are too overwhelming to ignore. 10 of 13 under for the Jags, and 9 of 13 under for the Falcons is a definite trend. Have to abide here, and play the low in the Georgia Dome this Thursday night.

1♦ UNDER

Patrick Webb

Savannah State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Savannah State +27½

I like Savannah State to cover the 27. Wisconsin's tempo and efficiency make for an interesting number in this game. Savannah State has not played an extremely challenging schedule and have not faced a team as disciplined as Wisconsin this season. However I like Wisconsin to just play their typical grind it out style and despite projecting huge advantages in three point shooting, rebounding and TO margin, I just don't think their will be enough possessions in this game for this type of spread.

SPORTS WAGERS

WINNIPEG +106 over Washington

In Washington’s second biggest game since Dale Hunter took over, they went out and got whacked by the Flyers 5-1. Philly was missing its leading scorer among other key personnel. The Caps have three wins in seven games since changing coaches and two of those wins were against Ottawa. The other win was against the Maple Leafs in a game they were clearly outplayed in. Nothing has really changed for Washington since the firing of BB. They’re still getting weak goaltending, which doesn’t bode well when allowing an inordinate amount of scoring chances. Alexander Semin’s head remains elsewhere and Alex Ovechkin is still trying to do everything on his own. The Jets are a cohesive unit that has been getting progressively better as the season wears on. They’ve won five straight at home, they stopped Boston’s incredible run and they also slowed down the red-hot Wild. On November 17, the Caps came in here and were beaten badly in a 4-1 loss. There’s nothing in their play that suggests this one will be any different. Washington favored here is incorrect. Play: Winnipeg +106 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles -½ +139 over COLUMBUS

In their first game under their new coach and the first game of a four game trip, the Kings went into Boston and lost 3-0. That result is probably this year’s most misleading final. Los Angeles played its best game of the year. They were all over every loose puck and played the entire three periods in the Bruins end. They outshot Boston 41-22 and only the incredible goaltending of Tuukaa Rask allowed the Bruins to earn that victory. If there is such a thing as a good loss, that was it. The Kings have dropped five in a row now and with the Red Wings on deck at the Joe, this one becomes crucial for a Kings team looking to get back on track. The Jackets are coming off a rare win against a good team. They beat the Canucks 2-1 in OT but they’ve still gone eight straight games without a regulation win. What’s really interesting is that something in the Jackets’ brings out the best in the Kings offense. L.A. has scored four goals or more against Columbus in six of the last seven games and they scored six goals in three of those. Kings have to dig down even deeper here and if their last game is any indication of what is to come, LA shakes that funk in a big way. Play: Los Angeles -½ +139 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Rangers +115 over ST. LOUIS

The Blues have been one of the league’s hottest teams over the past six weeks but the run that they’re on is not sustainable. Here’s a team that is rarely scoring more than two goals in any game, yet they keep winning 2-1 and 1-0. The Blue Notes have tallied 71 goals this season. That’s the lowest output in the NHL and again, they simply can’t maintain its winning percentage with production like that. Enter a New York team that has a history of playing a similar style to the Blues but has more quality players. All of a sudden, the Rangers are scoring goals. They’ve scored four or more in six of their last 10 and they’re getting balanced production, which is another good sign. The Rangers have the fewest losses in the league (7) and they’re 9-4 on the road. Lastly, the Blues have been playing at home since Dec 3. That’s five straight games and almost two weeks of hosting. St. Louis’ charmed life is in its final stages. Play: N. Y. Rangers +115. Play: N. Y. Rangers +115 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA –12 over Jacksonville

Don’t be fooled by Jacksonville’s 41-point outburst against the Buccaneers as Tampa’s seven turnovers aided that win which included 28 second quarter points off of miscues. Now the offensively challenged Jaguars, a team that had not scored more than 20 points all year before last weekend, must travel on a short week to play one of the league’s strongest home sides. The 4-9 Jaguars bring their 1-5 road mark to Atlanta where the 8-5 Falcons have realistically already lost the NFC South (official this weekend) but currently are in the driver's seat for a wild card bid. Atlanta has not been impressive but they can’t lose sight of its goal. The Falcons have clinched nothing and with their passing game clicking and Jacksonville’s injured secondary to take advantage of, this one can easily get out of hand. Play: Atlanta –12 (no bets).

Sean Murphy

Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens

On paper, this looks like a mismatch.

On the ice, I expect a much different story to unfold.

The Flyers have won six games in a row, but I believe they're in for a letdown in Montreal on Thursday. They've been playing at an extremely high level, but I question how long they can keep it up, especially against an opponent they just handled on home ice less than three weeks ago.

Keep in mind, the Flyers continue to play without two of their best players in Claude Giroux and Chris Pronger.

A few new faces have given the Habs a boost, with Tomas Kaberle and Petteri Nokelainen joining them via trade, and Chris Campoli returning from injury.

Montreal has posted back-to-back wins, the first time it's accomplished the feat in over a month. Now comes a stiff test in the form of the Flyers, but it's not as if the Canadiens haven't handled this challenge before. In fact, they've taken two of three meetings with Philadelphia on home ice since the start of last season.

The Flyers are in a bit of a look-ahead spot, with a home date with the defending Stanley Cup champion Bruins on deck Saturday.

I have a lot of respect for this team, most recently cashing a ticket with them in Buffalo last week, however in this particular spot, I think they're going to run into a highly-motivated and inspired Habs squad. That proves to be the difference.

Hollywood Sports

Red Wings at Predators
Prediction: Under

Detroit (19-9-1-0) won their third game in a row -- and their tenth in their last twelve games -- with their 4-1 win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Goalie Jimmy Howard has been outstanding as of late by holding nine of his last eleven opponents to two goals or less with a 1.72 GAA over that span. The Red Wings have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as a favorite. Detroit has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against fellow teams from the Central Division. Nashville (15-11-3-1) has won three games in a row as well after their 2-1 win over Calgary on Tuesday and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win. The Predators have seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Nashville has also seen the Under go 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. Additionally, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Nashville, 5 of these contests finished Under the Total. Take the Under in this one.

Vegas Experts

Los Angeles Kings at Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Kings are taking on the Blue Jackets tonight and Columbus seems to be under-valued as +110 underdogs at home. LA has not won a game in their last five matchups while Columbus is coming off a strong +170 home win over Vancouver and looks to build off that win tonight with another underdog winner. The LA Kings are only 12-17 SU in all games this season and they are 9-14 SU when playing as a favorite. LA is 1-5 SU in December games and will struggle again tonight against Columbus.