Wunderdog
Jaguars @ Falcons
Pick: Under 42.5
Last week the normally punchless Jaguars hung 41 points on Tampa Bay. It didn't hurt that the Bucs have lost seven straight games and in four of their last five they have allowed +35 points. But let's be clear: that 41 was simply an anomaly. Jacksonville wasn't exactly an offensive force in the game, gaining just 325 total yards on 66 plays at less than 5 yards per play. Let's not forget that this team had not scored over 20 points all season and has gone for 14 or less in nine of their last 11 before the Tampa Bay game. The Falcons may not be great on defense, but over their last 11 regular season home games they have allowed less than 20 points per game, including games vs. Green Bay, Philadelphia, and a pair with New Orleans, along with Carolina this year. So, there's no doubt they can hold down the Jags who average just 11.2 points per game on the road. The Falcons aren't a big scoring team. Seven of their last eight games have gone UNDER the total. While the Jaguars are little threat on offense, the defense has carried them all season. They have held eight teams to 20 points or fewer, and have played 12 of their 13 games UNDER the total. They have also played each of their last six on the road to the UNDER. The Falcons are a picture perfect 7-0 to the UNDER following a win this season, and the last four meetings between these clubs show a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER as well. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 15-6 to the UNDER when facing a bad passing team like Jacksonville (teams under 62% completion rate), 12-3 UNDER in non-conference games and 14-4 UNDER following a high-scoring affair in which 50+ points were scored last game. Jaguars road games have averaged just 28.9 total points per game this season! Take the UNDER here.
NHL Predictions
Vancouver Canucks -173
I am happy to see Cory Schneider to get the start tonight. Schneider is 7-4 on the season with a 2.02 GAA and .934 SV%, and has won 4 straight starts (he also stopped all 20 shots in a win over Colorado with Luongo coming out with an upper body injury). The Canucks dropped their last game in shootout to the improved Blue Jackets, but had won 4 straight heading into that game and have won 9 of their last 11 overall. On the other hand, the Hurricanes have just 9 wins on the season at 9-18-5, and are coming off of a 4 game road trip where they won just once. The Hurricanes have lost 9 of their last 10 games, and they looked pretty bad on Tuesday night in a 2-1 loss to the Maple Leafs that would have been a blow out loss if it wasn't for Cam Ward. The Canucks are averaging 3.2 goals per game, which isn't good news for the Hurricanes that are allowing 3.38 goals against per game this season. Vancouver is allowing just 1.20 goals against in their last 5 games and have been playing great hockey over the past month. Jeff Skinner is about all the Hurricanes had going for them, and he is sidelined indefinitely with a concussion. Vancouver's 1st ranked powerplay should give the 25th ranked Hurricanes penalty kill some troubles. I fully expect Vancouver to be able to handle the Hurricanes tonight as they haven't loss back to back games since November 4th. It is rare for me to find value laying this much chalk on a road team in the NHL, but when I do I usually have success. Take the Canucks to hand the Canes another loss tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Gonzaga -12
Off back-to-back losses to quality Illinois and Michigan State teams, expect Gonzaga to be hungry when it hits the floor tonight. Gonzaga's home loss to Michigan State last game is significant because the Bulldogs have never lost 2 in a row inside the McCarthy Athletic Center. They are 92-7 there all-time. It is also worth noting that the Zags are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games following a home loss. They have won these contests by an average score of 85.6 to 60.6. Oral Roberts is a quality foe, but it has failed to cover the number in its last 5 lined games and faced the difficult task of playing a third road games in 8 days. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit Gonzaga Bulldogs -12
The Bulldogs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. They are an even more impressive 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games following a home defeat, winning these games by an average of 25.0 ppg. Lay the number.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Cal Irvine +15
The Anteaters have been a terrific investment in the big dog role for quite some time. In fact, they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. Recently, they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. These 15 points should hold up tonight as LSU is expected to be without leading scorer Andre Stringer, who is dealing with symptoms of vertigo. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Bradley +6.5
George Washington is a team that has been overvalued for most of the season to this point. I still believe they are tonight as they are being asked to lay too many points against a quality Bradley bunch.
Bradley is 4-4 on the season, with three of their losses coming to three of the better teams in the country, including Wisconsin. They are come into this game with some confidence after putting an end to their losing streak with a 79-68 victory over Northeastern.
George Washington is 4-5 on the season. Their four wins have come against the likes of MD-East Shore, Detroit, Austin Peay and Bowling Green. The Colonials are ice-cold coming into this one, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They lost all four by double-digits, and by an average of 18.3 points/game.
The Colonials only have one starter back from last season. They also have just one player averaging in double-figures scoring. That's a big reason why they are only putting up 61.8 points on 41.5 percent shooting this year. Bradley has three starters back from last year and three players scoring in double-figures, led by F Taylor Brown (16.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG).
George Washington is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after scoring 60 points or less. The Colonials are 11-37-3 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Braves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Bradley Thursday.
Ben Burns
Edmonton Oilers @ Phoenix Coyotes
PICK: Phoenix Coyotes
We're getting a fair price on the Coyotes, based on the fact that they played last night. All "back to back spots" aren't created equally though. In this case, I'm not overly concerned with the two games in two days. For starters, the Coyotes lost last night, their third straight setback. So, there definitely shouldn't be any "complacency." Second, prior to last night's game, the Coyotes had three days off. So, they were well-rested and its not like they are playing three games in four nights or anything, often common in both the NBA and NHL. Lastly, the Coyotes are a team that hasn't fared too badly when playing the second of back to back games. They're 17-15 (+4.6) in that situation the past couple of seasons. The last two times that they were in a b2b spot, they won by scores of 3-2 (at Nashville) and 3-0 (vs. Dallas.) While the Coyotes are playing b2b games, the Oilers haven't played since way back on 12/10. That long a break hasn't been kind to them in the recent past. In fact, they're an awful 2-15 (-13.3) the last 17 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, going a dismal 45-64 (-31.5) their last 100+ in that situation. The Coyotes won this season's earlier meeting and are 7-2 in the series the past few seasons. They're also 27-16 (+12.5) the past few seasons, when coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less. All things considered, as I mentioned, I feel the price is very fair. Consider Phoenix
John Ryan
Oral Roberts at Gonzaga
Prediction: Oral Roberts
This is a matchup of two basketball programs that are off to solid starts. Gonzaga is off to a 5-2 start and have gone 4-3 ATS. However, Gonzaga has lost their last two games against strong competition. They lost at Illinois 82-75 and failed to cover ATS as 2 point dogs December 3. In their last game they hosted Michigan State and lost 74-67 and were installed as four point favorites. Oral Roberts is off to a solid 7-3 start and have won seven of their past eight games. They have lost five straight to the line and this game marks the third of a four game road trip. Their next game is an even greater test at Xavier set to start Sunday. This game opened with a betting line set with Gonzaga installed as an 11 point favorite and the line has moved to a solid 12 -110 price. I do think the line will edge higher and working an order to get Oral Roberts as a 12 points dog will get filled. If, however, the line does not move as expected, my suggestion is to simply get what is offered. When these 5* graded plays win, it is normally by several points and the hook rarely comes into to play. Between now and game time, it does not hurt to work the 12 price taking advantage of every possible opportunity for the play to win ATS. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Oral Roberts will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Oral Roberts is a fundamentally sound basketball team that plays a much slower pace of game than Gonzaga. It will not necessary for Oral Roberts to control the tempo and pace of the game as they have significant advantages rebounding the ball. The strong defensive rebounding will limit second chance scoring opportunities for Gonzaga. Gonzaga is not a solid rebounding and ball handling team. In their last two games, Gonzaga managed only 27 rebounds at Illinois and 28 rebounds versus Michigan State. Moreover, they had 16 and 20 turnovers against these two teams respectively. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 87-43 for 67% winners since 1997. Play on road dogs of 10 or more points and is an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game and is now facing a mediocre defensive team allowing between 67-74 points per game and after a game where they scored fewer than 61 points. This system has been very consistent hitting 71% ATS winners for a 22-9 ATRS mark spanning the past five seasons. Oral Roberts ranks 111th in the RPI standings and is ranked 221st in Strength of Schedule. The Golden Eagles rank 176th scoring 68.0 points per game, 234th getting 34.0 rebounds per game, 181st averaging 12.9 assists per game, and 134th hitting 44.4% of their shot attempts. Gonzaga ranks 68th in the RPI standings and 62nd in Strength of Schedule. Gonzaga ranks 61st averaging 76.0 points per game, 143rd getting 36.0 rebounds per game, 148th averaging 13.3 assists, and 133rd hitting 44.5% of their shot attempts. Despite their up-tempo style of basketball, Gonzaga is struggles to rebound the ball. To be averaging 76 points per game, a strong defensive team would be averaging at least 40 boards per game. I strongly believe that Oral Roberts will get the job done and make this a very close game tonight.
Chuck O'Brien
Now, let's talk about your free winner for tonight, as I turn to the biggest favorite on the board, and have no problem laying the points with a team that is dying to score a blowout win, after relatively close wins oiver UNLV and UW Milwaukee the last two times out.
Wisconsin could very well blast Savannah State by about 40 points tonight, looking more like the same team that beat Wisconsin-Green Bay by 38 on Dec. 7. That came on the heels of a back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Marquette. Now the Badgers are in after a close call against UW Milwaukee, and they're in the right spot to break free for massacre here.
Savannah State is a team out of the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, and yes, is a Division I program that fields teams in football, baseball, basketball, cross-country, tennis, track and field, volleyball, golf and softball, but the Tigers could be considered a mid-mid-major if there were such a thing. They're 4-7 on the year, and prior to beating up on College of Coastal Georiga, were dismantled by Georgia Tech, 65-45. Earlier this season, Savannah State was humbled by Big 10-member Indiana, 94-65.
Now having to go into Madison, mid-December, I just don't see how the Tigers will hang with the Badgers and keep this one within the 20-point range in the first half, and 30-point range by mid-second half. I'll lay the points without a hitch, as I can't help but seeing how Savannah State is 0-9 against Top 25 teams since joining the Division I fray. The Tigers have lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 36.8 points, and the last time these two met - albeit four years ago - the Badgers won 79-32 in Madison.
Lay the points.
3♦ WISCONSIN
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at Wisconsin to cover a huge number against Savannah State.
Wisconsin will be looking for a better performance after having a close call against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 60-54. Wisconsin beat Wisconsin-Green Bay 70-42 on Dec. 7 and Brigham Young, 73-56, on Nov. 26.
Wisconsin has two “warm up” games before starting the Big Ten conference play. The Badgers will be looking at bolstering its confidence in this spot.
Defense will be the key here. The Badgers held UNLV to its lowest total of the season at 51 points, 32 points under its average. The defense will smother Savannah State.
Going on the road to Madison, Wis., Savannah State will be overmatched. They are 4-7, but only 1-6 on the road. Indiana beat Savannah State, 94-65, on Nov. 19. Expect the same type ob beating here.
Savannah State has lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 36.8 points.
Lay the points.
2♦ WISCONSIN
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play I'm taking the Under as the Falcons host the Jaguars in Thursday night NFL action. I know what you're thinking: The Bucs scored 41 points last week, the Falcons scored 31, therefore they should have no issue getting over the posted total right? WRONG!
First of all, the Jags may not score that many points in their next couple games combined. Those 41 points were boltered by a couple defensive TD's and came against a god-awful Bucs defense. On the other side, its not like the Falcons have been setting the world on fire either. Sure, they torched Carolina, but who hasn't? They've averaged 20 ppg over their 4 previous games, with a declining run game featuring a back who's averaged a little more than 3 yards per carry over his L3 games.
Second, both teams lead with their defense and that's a big reason this game stays under the total. Jags defense ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring, followed closely by the Falcons at # 11. Plus each team's defensive strength mirrors their opponents offensive strength. In other words, the Jaguars are good at stopping the pass, while the Falcons are solid against the run. The offenses will have a tougher than anticipated go of it tonight.
Finally, the under is 10-3 in the Jaguars last 13 games overall, including 6-0 in their L6 road games. The under is 5-0 in the Falcons last 5 home games, and 4-0 in these two teams last 4 meetings. All things considered, take the under in tonight's Jaguars-Falcons contest.
3♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
For your complimentary play tonight I am going to take the points with the Bradley Braves, visiting George Washington in our nation's capital during an extended road trip to the East Coast. And believe it or not, this game holds some important connotation in some regards, as we have a mid-major league in the Missouri Valley Conference, taking on the Atlantic 10, widely considered a major player.
A win here goes a long way for the MVC next March, when it comes time to compete for at-large bids into the Big Dance. So even though the Atlantic 10 and MVC are top-tier non-BCS college basketball conferences, I certainly believe the A-10 is a higher-regarded league.
The Braves step onto the court for the first time in nine days, because of final exams, and though most would be worried about rust, I think they'll be glad to get back to what they enjoy. I mean, there's no reason to be intimidated over a 4-5 George Washington team that has played only one of its nine games on its home court, and have played lower than annual standards.
The Colonials have lost four in a row, most recently an 85-50 thrashing at the hands of Syracuse in the Carrier Dome last Saturday. And even though the combined record of the teams G-Dub has lost to is 38-7, the record of the teams G-Dub has beaten is 15-28 - only one of which has a winning record.
I'm perfectly comfortable with the Braves, who have three players averaging double figures, a fourth player putting in 9.3 points and couple of players off the bench who can help on the boards. Give me the underdog in this one, as the Braves keep this one close.
1♦ BRADLEY
Doug Upstone
Detroit / Nashville Over 5
Both Detroit and Nashville are on three-game winning streaks as they get ready to meet on Thursday. The Red Wings rocked the Predators 4-1 back on Nov. 26, which plays a part into today's action. Play OVER on home teams like Nashville when the total is five or less, revenging a loss vs opponent of two goals or more, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the first half of season. (29-9 the L5Y)
WUNDERDOG
Savannah State at Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -26.5
This is pretty much an impossible task at hand for Savannah State. They tried here before four years ago and left buried in the rubble of a 79-32 defeat. In that game their top scorer registered just 7 points, as they shot 24%. They are picked last in the lowly MEAC Conference, so the improvement sure isn't there at this point. They now face a Wisconsin team that has been rock solid on defense over the year's but are even better this year, leading the country in FG% defense. It would certainly not be a shocker to see Savannah State held at or around the freezing mark in points once again here, while Wisconsin, who rarely turns the ball over has its way on the other end as well. The Badgers are all-in vs. bad teams who are winning less than 40% of their games with a stellar 13-3 ATS mark in their last 16, and will add one more to the victims list. Lay the points and play on Wisconsin here.
Rocketman
Los Angeles @ Columbus
Play: Los Angeles -116
Columbus is 11-27 the past 3 years in December. Los Angeles has won 6 of the past 8 meetings the past 3 years against Columbus. Kings are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Blue Jackets are 23-47 in their last 70 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 17-40 in their last 57 games playing on 1 days rest. Blue Jackets are 15-36 in their last 51 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 8-20 in their last 28 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 19-49 in their last 68 vs. Western Conference. Blue Jackets are 7-19 in their last 26 home games. Blue Jackets are 3-9 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Blue Jackets are 17-51 in their last 68 games as an underdog. Blue Jackets are 12-40 in their last 52 overall. Blue Jackets are 9-31 in their last 40 games as a home underdog. Blue Jackets are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. Pacific. Blue Jackets are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Blue Jackets are 2-12 in their last 14 Thursday games. Kings are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Los Angeles tonight!