Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 16,2010

John Ryan

Austin Peay at Memphis
Prediction: Austin Peay

5* graded play on Austin Peay (6-5) as they visit Memphis (7-1) set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Austin Peay will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-33 ATS for 68% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after a loss by 10 points or more and now facing an opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more. This system is on a 3-1 ATS run this season. Memphis lost to Kansas 81-68 as an 11 point dog in their last game December 7. Austin Peay is coming off a big offensive night defeating Fontbonne 112-52 on December 11. In case you were wondering Fontbonne was founded in 1923 and is a catholic liberal arts college located in St. Louis with about 1500 in full-time enrollment. Austin Peay is coached by David Loss, who has four returning starters. Having four or five returning starters is nearly always a meaningful advantage for at least the first 15 games of the season. The experience that four starters possess makes their quality of play and execution far better than teams with few returning starters, who are developing their own identity and chemistry. Memphis is a miserable 2-12 ATS after having won six or seven of their last eight games over the last two seasons. Just too many points and Austin Peay is the right wager.

Jim Feist

Spurs vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 214½

The No. 3 and 4 scoring teams in the NBA meet here, both uptempo teams averaging over 106 ppg. They are both outstanding inside and out, with the Spurs scorching the nets from beyond the arc at a lead leading 41%. Denver is on a 2-0-1 run over the total. The fans and players will be sky high for an offensive show with the NBA's best team in town. Play the Spurs/Nuggets Over the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco +9½ over SAN DIEGO

The Chargers are flexing their muscles lately with five wins in six games and none more convincingly then Sunday’s 31-0 pasting of the Chiefs. Be that as it may, these Chargers have shown a huge propensity for mistake-filled football and we’re not sure how much to trust them on three days rest after destroying someone. The 49ers may actually have a better chance of qualifying for the post-season with the inept NFC West still being attainable. As odd as it may sound, San Francisco feeling better about itself with Alex Smith back at QB and being fresh off its best offensive output of season. San Fran cannot be trusted as the chalk but it’s a whole different story when taking back points and in fact, they’re 9-2 over past 11 when getting points and that’s largely attributed to their resolute defense. Remember, this intruder was projected to win 10 games this season and suddenly they're playing better and they have a chance to save what looked earlier to be a disastrous campaign. Play: San Francisco +9½ (No bets).

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

San Antonio comes in riding a wave of momentum, but they played last night and now have to go into the thin air of Denver. Look for their six-game win streak to come to an end here against a Nuggets team that is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home after three straight games where they shot the ball 50% or better.

Play on: Denver

Ross Benjamin

Weber St. @ Tulsa
Play: Weber St. +9

Weber St. is 207-7 ATS in their last 27 games following 2 or more SU wins in a row. Weber St. is shooting a sizzling 40.3% from beyond the three-points line on the season. In addition they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 77.5% as a team. Under head coach Doug Wojcik Tulsa is 1-10 ATS in home games following 2 or more SU losses in a row. Play on Weber St. plus the points as my free selection of the night.

Ray Monohan

Northern Arizona vs. Arizona
Play: Northern Arizona +17½

Tonight Arizona will play host to Northern Arizona in a matchup of teams that have taken care of business in games they were supposed to win, but came up short in big early season games. The Lumberjacks were a preseason pick to finish 3rd in the Big Sky Conference and I think they have really held their own against the toughest teams on their schedule. The Wildcats are also looking to rebound from Saturday’s loss at No. 18 BYU, an 87-65 thumping at the hands of the Cougars. The Wildcats, who are 16th in the country in scoring at 81 PPG, have one of the deepest and most balanced rosters in the country with 10 players averaging more than 13 minutes per game. The Lumberjacks are led by 6-4 senior Cameron Jones, a three-year starter who is having his best season since arriving at NAU. 16.8 assists 3.1, minutes played 30.5 and is second on the team in rebounding (4.3). They are scoring 75.9 PPG on 48% shooting and are 10th in the country with 17.8 APG. Northern Arizona are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, Arizona is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Northern Arizona. Now while it may be true that Northern Arizona lost its last outing, a 60-52 result against USC on December 11, it must be noted they covered in that game as a 9.5-point dog, plus it was their first loss in 8 games, and I like them getting the 17.5 or 18 on what could most likely be a late cover.

Ben Burns

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ New York Islanders
PICK: New York Islanders

Its true that the Islanders are pretty "brutal." This is a good spot for them though. They already played the Ducks tough, at Anaheim, last month. The Isles had a 27-14 edge in shots on goal, but lost 1-0. Now, the Isles get to face them at home AND they catch the Ducks off a big (OT) win at Washington last night.

The fact that the Ducks played last night is definitely worth mentioning. That's because they're a money-burning 15-27 (-10.2) in that situation, the past few seasons, most recently losing at Vancouver on 12/8.

If you can stomach backing "the worst team in the league," I feel the Isles have a great shot at coming away with a badly needed two points here. Consider New York

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Youngstown State +18

NC State is being overvalued by odds makers tonight. Right away we find that Sidney Lowe's team is only winning by 14.0 points at home this season. With Youngstown State catching over 15, the Penguins are certainly worth a small play this evening. The Wolfpack simply can't be trusted laying this many points considering recent results. In fact, they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points. Plus, it's nothing new for odds makers to overvalue the team from a power conference when they are up against a small conference school. We also must consider that the Wolfpack are just 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. In addition, NC State is 0-6 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. It is only winning by 7.6 points on average in this spot. With Arizona up next on Sunday, don't expect NC State to give Youngstown the attention it deserves. Take the points.

Rocketman

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Calgary Flames

Toronto is 0-6 this year after 3 or more consecutive unders. Maple Leafs are 17-35 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Maple Leafs are 16-35 in their last 51 vs. Western Conference. Maple Leafs are 8-18 in their last 26 overall. Maple Leafs are 16-37 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Maple Leafs are 16-38 in their last 54 road games. Maple Leafs are 3-8 in their last 11 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Maple Leafs are 2-6 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Maple Leafs are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. Maple Leafs are 1-4 in their last 5 Thursday games. Maple Leafs are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. Northwest. Maple Leafs are 2-11 in their last 13 games as an underdog. Maple Leafs are 1-8 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Maple Leafs are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Flames are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Flames are 4-1 in their last 5 home games. Flames are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Flames are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite. Flames are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. Northeast. Home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Maple Leafs are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Calgary. We'll recommend a small play on Calgary tonight!

Craig Trapp

Austin Peay vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -14.5

Memphis has been off for over a week since last time out in the tough loss to Kansas. Don't believe in good losses but do believe this young MEM team learned how hard they have to play to win against big time competition. Look for a huge performance as MEM athletes totally overwhelm a outmanned AP team. easy winner here.

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: San Antonio Spurs -2

The Spurs have some quality angles here tonight on their side. They are 11-1 straight up the last 3 years when the posted total is 210 or more. When they play teams that score 99 or more per game they are 11-0. When they take on teams that allow 99 or more per game they are 13-1. Denver is 0-4 off a dog win and 1-4 ats off a win of 10 or more. The Spurs are the best team in the West and should win this one tonight. Lay the short number.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston +1.13 over MONTREAL (REG) Pinnacle

We’ll go right back to playing against the Habs because for the first time this year Montreal is a little fragile after losing three in a row for the first time all season. Also note the energy the Habs had last night after playing their worst game of the season on Saturday against Toronto and that still wasn’t enough to beat the Flyers, a team that had played a hugely intense game the night before against the then 12-0 Penguins. The Bruins are tough as shoe leather. They can play any style and they play a much more sound defensive game than the Habs. Montreal’s outstanding record this year has been the result of Carey Price standing on his head. Well, after playing more games and minutes than any other goalie, perhaps a little fatigue has set in and Price has been just adequate over the past two games. For the Habs to beat the better teams in this league, i.e., the Bruins, they have to get a dazzling performance from their goalie and making a wager on the favorite in anticipation of that is bad strategy. The B’s are the superior club, taking back a tag against a team they get more jacked up for than any other team in the league. Play: Boston +1.13 (Risking 2 units).

Ottawa +1.22 over MINNESOTA

The Wild are playing a bit better these days with points in four of their past five games but this is not a team to be laying juice with. For one, they return home from a four-game swing with the final three games being played on the West Coast. They beat the Kings in L.A. but pay no attention to that, as once again they were dominated but Jonathan Quick surrendered two horrible goals in that 3-2 OT win. Subsequently, they were destroyed in Anaheim the next night by a 6-2 score. Tonight, they will honor the career of Dino Ciccarelli in a pre-game ceremony. What that does is take focus away from the task at hand. It’s a distraction to the highest degree. The focus is on the ceremony and players are asked to stand on the ice for about a half hour during the ceremony while the opposition is in their dressing room preparing for the game. There are post-game parties, pre-game appearances and just a whole slew of other arrangements. In the history of games where a player is honored beforehand, the home teams’ record is awful due to the distractions of such an event. Throw in the fact that the Wild are about as average as they come and that they’re coming home from a trip and the Sens are in a great spot to come in here and leave victorious. Play: Ottawa +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles -½ +1.34 over ST. LOUIS

Extremely tough spot for the Blue Notes here, as they come in with more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie. Erik Johnson is the latest casualty, along with Andy McDonald, T.J. Oshie, Roman Polak, Alex Pietrangelo, David Perron and Vladimir Sobotka. Those are among the best players on this team and let’s also not ignore the fact that the Blues played last night in Detroit, a 5-2 loss. Laying pucks on the road is not a strong proposition but there are exceptions and this one appears to be just that. The Kings have won four of their past five and they’re not even playing that well. A 5-0 win in Detroit in their last game is not indicative of how they performed. They were badly outplayed and were extremely fortunate that Jonathan Quick had a huge game, otherwise they likely would’ve been down by two or three goals after a couple of periods. What we all know is that the Kings are loaded with talent and had a great start to the year. They also went through a recent funk and absolutely know that they have to play better on this current five game trip. Frankly, there are no excuses for them to have a poor game. Good teams can smell a wounded animal and go in for the kill and that’s precisely the situation here. Play: Los Angeles -½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).

Stan Lisowski

San Antonio Spurs

The visitor in this series has won 4 straight, both outright and vs. the number. The Spurs are off of a road game last night and now are installed as a road favorite, given validity to the fact that Denver really misses Billups.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 211

Denver is 15-4 OVER in its last 19 after 3 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. With the way Denver has been playing at the offensive end, this tired San Antonio Spurs team (just played last night) can only hope to outscore the Nuggets tonight. The OVER is also 7-2-1 in the Nuggets' last 10 home games and 6-1 in the Spurs' last 7 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Expect an uptempo, back-and-forth game to result in the OVER this evening.