Steve Janus
1* New Jersey Nets -6
This may seem like a lot of points to lay on the Nets, who have won just six games all season, but they are playing a Wizards team that has yet to win a road game all season, and is likely going to be without rookie sensation John Wall and Andray Blatche. The Nets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Wizards are just 18-31 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons, and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Info Plays
3* Hawks +7.5
Reasons why the Hawks will cover:
1) The Celtics are a veteran team, and will likely lack the intensity needed to blow out the Hawks on the second game of a back-to-back. It also doesn't help that the Celtics are missing a number of key players to injury, and could be without starting point guard Rajon Rondo.
2) The Hawks just got blown out Tuesday night by the Pistons, and while it may not seem like a good indicator to take them against one of the best NBA teams. There is a powerful system that says you should play on - any team (Hawks) - off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, as its 46-19 over the last 5 seasons.
3) The Celtics are just 9-20 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons, and only 14-25 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Black Widow
1* on Washington Wizards +6.5
The New Jersey Nets should never be this big of a favorite against any team in the league. We'll take the value with the Washington Wizards Thursday. The Nets are 6-19 this season, getting outscored by 5.7 points/game. The Wizards aren't much better at 6-17, but certainly they have what it takes to stay within this spread and possibly pull off the "upset". The Wizards will be playing only their 2nd game in 6 days which means they are fresh, and the Nets are mentally exhausted as they are 0-8 in their last 8 games overall. The Wizards are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. New Jersey is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Wizards and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arizona -16.5
Following an embarrassing performance against BYU, expect the Wildcats to take out their frustration on NAU tonight. Going back to 2002, Arizona has won 7 straight in this series by an average score of 89 to 69. In addition, Zona is a proven bounce back artist. In fact, it is a perfect 8-0 ATS following a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Sometimes it takes a little extra incentive and embarrassing losses have certainly been a motivator for the Cats. Lastly, coach Miller is not afraid of big chalk. With an opportunity to blow out an inferior opponent, his teams have taken care of business more times than not. In fact, Miller's squads are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. They're winning these games by 18.9 points on average. Take the Wildcats.
Jack Jones
Boston Celtics -7
I know the Boston Celtics are playing the second of a back-to-back after their big win over the New York Knicks last night, but this team is still fresh as this will only be their 2nd game in 5 days. They'll have plenty left in the tank to make easy work of the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Boston is 11-0 SU & 6-4-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, currently riding the longest winning streak in the NBA. It would be foolish not to back them with the way they are hitting on all cylinders right now.
The Atlanta Hawks are having a decent season, but injuries are starting to pile up. Enough so that they can't possibly hang with a team like Boston. Leading scorer Joe Johnson (17.1 PPG) is out until at least mid-January, and fourth-leading scorer Jamal Crawford (14.8 PPG) is out tonight with a back injury. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Boston won it Atlanta 99-76 in their first meeting this season and another beat down is in store tonight. Roll with the Celtics Thursday.
Hollywood Sports
Weber State at Tulsa
Play: Weber State
Weber State (5-3) has now won three games in a row after their 77-71 win at South Utah. While the Wildcats return only two starters from last season's 20-11 team that ended their season in the NIT, they do return the services of point guard -- and the reigning Big Sky Conference MVP -- in Damian Lillard. One thing Weber State is doing well so far this season is taking advantage of the charity stripe as they rank 20th in the nation by converting 76.7% of their free throws. They face a Tulsa team that also returns two starters from their NIT squad last season. But the Golden Hurricanes had much higher expectations with Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh on the roster. Unfortunately for this 2010-11 Tulsa crew, those seniors are now gone. At 4-5 for the season and having lost three straight games, the Golden Hurricanes are still searching for their identity. They come off an 82-78 overtime loss to Princeton on their home court despite being a 7-point favorite. Tulsa has failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games as a favorite. On the other hand, Weber State has covered 19 of their last 27 road games as an underdog. The Wildcats are a nice proposition here. Take the points with Weber State.
Karl Garrett
San Francisco at SAN DIEGO
Looking at the total of this Thursday night game, and I am expecting to see the points adding up to an over at Qualcomm Stadium.
Both teams are coming off of high-scoring outputs, as the Niners came up with 40 points in their 40-21 win over Seattle, while San Diego made it 3 of their last 4 games, and 4 of 6 overall with 30 points or more scored in their 31-0 blanking of Kansas City.
That having been said, we have also been seeing plenty of shoot-outs under the prime time lights of late, as the last pair of Thursday night games have both landed high, as have this past Sunday and Monday night games.
Gotta give the people what they want, and right now that is a ton of points.
San Francisco and San Diego do not disappoint.
Take the over tonight in southern California.
4♦ OVER
Michael Cannon
San Francisco at SAN DIEGO
Take the over in tonight’s NFL battle between the 49ers and Chargers.
I’m thinking with the explosive potential both offenses bring to the table, especially the Chargers, this total should have been listed higher.
As a result I’m going to take the over for tonight’s free play.
This game has all the feel of a potential shootout. Whether it’s both teams or just one, but either way I see some points being scored.
San Diego has an offense ranked in the top five while the 49ers bring a slew of potential on their side of the ball.
Take the over as this one hurtles past the posted total.
3♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
Atlanta at BOSTON
For Thursday's comp play, I'll back Atlanta to cover against the Boston Celtics, who are coming off a thrilling victory at New York last night.
The Hawks have been pointing to this matchup ever since Boston humiliated them at home, 99-76, on Nov. 22. They're not intimidated in the least by Boston, who they swept last season going 4-0, winning by an average of 9.5 points a game.
Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Hawks have done fine despite not having Joe Johnson for the last eight games. They were beaten in their last outing, a bad road loss to Detroit on Tuesday, because they were caught looking ahead to this matchup.
Boston has won 11 in a row, but the Celtics are in a dangerous situational spot after edging the Knicks, 118-116, last night in New York when Paul Pierce hit a jumper with 0.4 seconds left. They're 2-4 ATS this season in the second of back-to-back games.
The Hawks are the more rested team. The Celtics' Big Three logged big minutes in that victory against New York. Ray Allen played 41:26, Pierce played 40:33 and Kevin Garnett saw more than 36 minutes of action. In addition, Rajon Rondo is dealing with a sprained ankle.
The Celtics are without injured big men Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal, using rookie Semih Erden plus Glen Davis to man the middle. Shaq hurt the Hawks with 13 points and 11 rebounds in the earlier meeting. The Hawks can take advantage of the absence of the O'Neal's with their athletic front-court featuring Josh Smith and Al Horford.
The Hawks have been a solid road club with an 8-5 record both SU and ATS.
2♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio at DENVER (+2)
For my comp winner, San Antonio just finished off a perfect 6-0 homestand on Wednesday with a narrow victory over the Bucks, but last time they were on the road they didn’t look so good, so I’m going to play the Nuggets in this one, who looked great in their last outing.
Denver just delivered a 111-94 beating to the Magic at home on Tuesday, easily cashing as a two-point home ‘dog. Now they are ‘dogs to the Spurs? Carmelo Anthony is playing outstanding basketball right now, making quick decisions and getting to the basket at will. He had 35 points and 11 rebounds against Orlando and he got great help from his two guards Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson who combined for 31 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.
The Nuggets score 111.3 points per game at home and shoot 47.6 percent from the floor.
San Antonio’s last road game was December 1 when they fell to the Clippers 90-85 as seven-point favorites. They edged Milwaukee at home on Wednesday and back-to-back games is not something those old legs enjoy.
Denver is on ATS surges of 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 19-7 at home against teams with winning road records. In this rivalry, the underdog has cashed in eight straight contests. Grab the few points being offered here and play the home team Nuggets.
2♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
San Antonio at DENVER
For Thursday’s complimentary selection in the NBA, take the Spurs-Nuggets game OVER the posted total.
I know the “under” cashed in all four meetings between these teams last year, but prior to that, the “over” had hit in four of five. More than anything, though, this play is all about the Nuggets, who have been an offensive machine lately but very lax on defense. Denver has poured in 105 points or more in seven of its last nine games, scoring 111, 125 and 123 in the last three and averaging 111.8 ppg over the nine-game stretch.
At the other end of the court, the Nuggets haven’t exactly put up much resistance. Prior to Orlando’s second-half shooting funk (39 points) in Tuesday’s 111-94 win over the Magic, Denver had given up 129, 116, 105, 100, 107 and 104 in seven straight games. And over the last eight, George Karl’s squad has allowed 109 ppg.
As for the Spurs, they’re coming off consecutive low-scoring games (92-90, 95-78) and the under has hit in six of their last seven. However, before cooling off in the last two games, San Antonio had put up 106.7 ppg in its previous seven games, which is slightly more than its season average of 105.8 ppg.
Because the Spurs played last night (last-second 92-90 win over the Bucks), I’m sure many expect them to be a bit sluggish tonight at altitude. I’m of the opposite opinion, as San Antonio has scored 116 and 117 points in two of its three back-to-back situations this year, both of which flew over the total. And before their recent 6-1 “under” stretch, the Spurs were on an 11-3 “over” run (5-2 “over” on the road).
2♦ OVER
Craig Davis
San Antonio at DENVER (+2)
Tonight's free play is on the Denver Nuggets over San Antonio at home... and that's the key word... HOME. Denver has lost only once this season at home. A 102-101 loss to Dallas very early in the season in which they would redeem the following week by winning in Dallas.
Denver, in my opinion, is the best home team in the NBA and they have been for a few years. The Denver fans are normally raucous when the average opponent comes in... so imagine how much louder and rowdier they're going to be when a team like San Antonio comes calling.
The Spurs have dropped just one road game all season and have always been considered one of the better road teams in the NBA over the past five or six seasons.
Neither team is considered "young", but San Antonio is also playing on back-to-back nights, and when you're dealing with veteran legs... that's never a good thing. Especially when you consider they are going to the thin air of Colorado.
I realize the Nuggets don't have the best ATS record at home, but that's because Vegas has been asking them to give a bunch of points every time they play at the Pepsi Center.
Not tonight. Tonight (like the last game vs. Orlando) Denver is actually a slight underdog and that's like taking candy from a baby. Just like Tuesday night vs. Orlando when the Nuggets hung around until the fourth quarter, I expect that's what we're going to see tonight.
Plus, without Chauncey Billups in the lineup, that gives the Nuggets a little more youth at the point guard position with Aaron Afflalo and Ty Lawson likely sharing duties. With Tony Parker not 100%, that duo is going to keep him on his toes all night long.
The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two Western Conference powers, and I don't see any reason why that changes tonight. Play the Nuggets plus the points at home as your free play of the day.
3♦ DENVER
Derek Mancini
San Antonio at DENVER (+1)
Tricky line, and not just because it's begging for San Antonio money. Look guys, there's no question the Spurs are the cream of the NBA crop, but you can't overlook the Nuggets excellent play at the Pepsi Center, where they've won 10 in a row. Also, don't think that Denver doesn't remember how San Antone put a whupping on them at home last season, winning by a combined 38 points in those contests... There's no doubt they'll be ready tonight.
I can hear bettors clamoring: But what about the Billups injury? What about it? Look at the numbers, Ty Lawson has become a solid starting caliber NBA point guard in his own right. His averages are slightly lower than Billups, but he also plays 8 fewer minutes, and at this point in his career, Billups is a turtle compared to Lawson. My point is don't overreact to the injury, the Nuggets will be just fine without him, and if you need proof, check out their win over the Magic Tuesday.
Finally, and I'm only going to mention this in passing because I believe its being way overblown, there the fatigue factor. The Spurs won a big game last night on a last second shot by Ginobili. Not only will that win sap their energy playing the next night, but it also could very well lead to a letdown. Those last second emotional wins are tough to follow, especially against a very motivated opponent who plays great basketball at home. Denver plus the points over San Antonio Thursday.
3♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
Weber State at TULSA (-8')
I've somewhat kept an eye on this Tulsa team, ever since it played UNLV last month, and lost 80-71. Something about a team playing my Runnin' Rebels, who looked like a catastrophe last night against Santa Barbara, that picques my interest every single season.
Of course, now I'll be keeping an eye on the Gauchos too.
But the Golden Hurricane is an interesting bunch, one that opened the season by winning four of their first six games, incluing a win over the Pac 10's Stanford Cardinal.
But it's been a tough road ever since, losing three in a row - to Arkansas-Little Rock, Oklahoma State and Princeton.
In a word, Tulsa is desperate. And not just for a win, a big win.
Enter Weber State, a team that has won four of five games and very well could have been five straight if it wasn't for a one-point loss to Arizona State.
And I have to believe, with a tough slate just around the corner, this is as crucial a game as any of those others. Given the Wildcats' recent run, there shouldn't be any worry for a lookahead.
The Hurricane need a huge blowout before taking four days off to play Wichita State on the 21st. Then it's a date with Texas-San Antonio. With a blowout win tonight, I believe Tulsa can win the next two and move out to 7-5 before a year-ending game with TCU and then Conference USA play.
Admittedly, Tulsa is a bit banged up, but I can't be concerned with that when I am backing a veteran-laden team full of players who need to rally around one another immediately.
Tulsa is on ATS runs of 9-3 in non-conference action and 4-0 on Thursdays. Let's take a shot here with the overall better program.
1♦ TULSA
Scott Delaney
Northern Arizona (+17) at ARIZONA
As for your freebie, well normally in a situation like this, I'll always look at coach Mike Adras' bunch as a value underdog and bank on the Lumberjacks to come through with a big game.
And once again, I see an over-inflated line against a team that is the most experienced in its league - the Big Sky Conference - as six returnees who started at least 10 games last season are back for the 'Jacks.
True, this might be Northern Arizona's first true test of the season, but it's handled itself admirably through the first 10 games of the season, producig an 8-2 mark.
The two losses have come against big-time programs - Iowa State and Southern Cal - but both were by a mere eight points.
Arizona, also 8-2 this season, has lost to Kansas and is in off an 87-65 drubbing at Brigham Young. The lone impressive win by this team in my opinion was an 83-60 win over Oklahoma. The other seven wins have come at the expense of creampuffs, including Idaho State, Northern Colorado and Bethune Cookman.
NAU won't win this game, but knowing how well Adras performs for a game, not to mention the fact knowing the Wildcats will likely be looking toward Sunday's date at North Carolina Sate, I see the Lumberjacks covering this game.
1♦ NORTHERN ARIZONA
Joel Tyson
Northern Arizona at ARIZONA (-16')
As for your comp play, go ahead and lay the points with Arizona as they rebound from the pounding they took over the weekend at BYU.
The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 straight up at home this year, and they have covered 4 of their 5 lined home games.
Northern Arizona is 7-3 for the season, but they have not been able to break through against their in-state big brother, losing ALL 7 meetings dating back to 2002.
The Lumberjacks do own a 3-2-2 spread mark in those 7 losses, but after the Wildcats were humiliated by 22 points against the Cougars, I have a feeling they will be out for blood tonight on their home floor.
Lay the wood as the 'Cats chop down the Lumberjacks.
2♦ ARIZONA