Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 20

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana - Purdue vs. Valparaiso
Pick: ValparaisoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I successfully played against the Crusaders in their last game. I felt that they were a little over-valued and that the line and schedule favored their opponent (Oakland) which I felt came in under-valued. Laying four points, Valparaiso would lose outright.
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I did note that the Crusaders were an experienced team though and I never said that I didn't respect them. (They're actually a very solid team.)
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Tonight, the Crusaders are back home and taking a step down in class, at least in my opinion. I believe that they should be able to win convincingly.
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Here's an excerpt from Monday's play against Valparaiso: (You can read the whole writeup here.)
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"Granted, the Crusaders are also an experienced team and they also won more than 20 games last season. They've only won two of five road games though and are also 2-3 ATS the last five times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 6 range.
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The well-rested Golden Grizzlies, who haven't played since 12/8, were 2-1 ATS last season when playing with seven or more day's rest. I believe the break came at a good time.
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Valparaiso, on the other hand, played on Saturday. The Crusaders are 9-11 ATS the last 20 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. They're playing their third straight on the road here. With a 1-3 ATS record this month, they're now 6-13 ATS in December the past few seasons ..."
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As noted, the Crusaders are now back home. That's noteworthy as they're 5-0 (2-1 ATS in lined games) here, outscoring teams by a 72.2 to 52.4 margin. They'll also now be facing an IUPUI squad which is an awful 1-9 SU/ATS in lined games and which is getting outscored by an average margin of 81.7 to 65.9 on the road.
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I feel that the Crusaders will have payback on their minds here. They returned all five starters from a team that went 22-12 last season. One of those losses was an upset against these same Jaguars.
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Throw in the fact that the Crusaders just lost vs Oakland, another team from the Summit League, and they should be looking to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. While the line may seem a bit steep, consider that they're 4-2 ATS (6-0 SU) the last couple of seasons, as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. Take a look at the home team.

Chris ElliottFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City vs. Minnesota
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Thunder are road warriors with a record of 7-2 while they have won 7 of the last 8 games at Minnesota although they are only 2-6 ATS in that stretch. Thursday will be the back end of road games in consecutive days for OKC. The T-Wolves are no slouch at home with a 7-3 mark, while they will be hungry coming off back to back road losses.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (21-4, 7-2 away) continue their road trip Thursday at Minnesota coming off of a 100-92 victory at Atlanta Wednesday night Kevin Durant went off in the victory over the Hawks with 41 points; he now averages 27.1 PPG on the season.
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The Minnesota Timberwolves (12-11, 7.3 home) have played great basketball at home, winning 4 straight games by an average margin of +9.8 PPG. PF Kevin Love is well rested after coming off an "illness" while he has established himself as one of the top big men in the game with 19.0 PPG and 14.2 rebounds.
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The Thunder are road warriors with a record of 7-2 while they have won 7 of the last 8 games at Minnesota although they are only 2-6 ATS in that stretch with an average margin of victory of 4.1 PPG in the 7 victories. Thursday will be the back end of road games in consecutive days with a 100-92 victory at Atlanta on Wednesday. The T-Wolves are no slouch at home with a 7-3 mark at the Target Center while the team will be hungry coming off back to back road losses.
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Expect this game to be close to the finish and consider taking the T-Wolves at home plus the points.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City vs. Minnesota
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am playing on the Minnesota Timberwolves to cover the spread against Oklahoma. The Thunder played a tough game last night against the Hawks and I think it will too much to ask them to cover the spread in back to back games.
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Note, I respect the Thunder for the power house team that are and have been this season, but I think this will prove to be a really tough game to win. OKC will be playing the backend of a back-to-back situation.
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Kevin Durant played over 40 minutes last night and Russell Westbrook was out there for almost as long at 39. The road trip from Atlanta to Minnesota is a not an easy, as the team will travel a lot of miles across a few time zones.
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Durant had to score 41 points last night to help the Thunder win against the Hawks. It will be tougher to bring that energy out again tonight.
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The T’Wolves has had a good record at home at 7-3 this year and 6-4 ATS. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS when facing team with a winning record.
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Kevin Love and company have won and covered the spread in their last four games there.
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Granted the T’Wolves have lost their last two games in a row. Those games were on the road. I think it will work in our favour that Minnesota is very hungry to win this game in front of their home fans against one of the best teams in the NBA.
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Grab the points in a game that sure to be closely contested.

Rob Vinciletti
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IONA vs. LASALLE
PLAY: LASALLE
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Lasalle has won the last 5 times with 4 spread wins as a home favorite from -3.6 to -6 and has a solid 34 RPI Ranking, compared to Iona which is ranked 134. Iona has lost both games vs teams ranked 150 or higher in the RPI and lost and failed to cover vs the only 2 teams with a winning record this season. They are 7-23 straight up as a road dog in this range and have not fared well vs the spread in that situation. Lasalle has won and covered 3 of 4 vs teams over .500 and finally comes home after a couple of road/neutral court games. Look for them to get the win and cover here tonight.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Heat at Mavericks
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Think LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki will put on an uptempo game? The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams who met in the 2011 NBA Finals. The over is 9-3 in the Heat's last 12 vs. the NBA Southwest. Dallas has plenty of offensive punch, but is struggling defensively, allowing over 101 ppg, 28th in the NBA. The over is 20-7 in the Mavericks last 27 games playing on one days rest, plus the over is 9-3 in Mavericks last 12 home games. Play the Heat/Mavericks over the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at Boise State
Pick: IdahoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State has been impressive, and guard Derrick Marks is a rising star. But this is a rivalry game, and my numbers suggest the visiting Vandals will make this a contest. Boise State should win, but I like Idaho plus the points to get the cover.

Frank JordanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas MavericksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a rematch from the finals a couple years ago won by Dallas. This year though the Mavericks aren't doing so hot with just a 12-13 record through the first 25 games. At home, however, Dallas is 8-3 and are coming off a win as they host the defending champs. Miami is 16-6 which is good for second best in the East, but on the road they are an average 4-4. Miami is playing well of late winning their last two games and seven of 10 as they hit the road. Miami has played well against the West with an 8-3 record while Dallas against the East isn't as well with a 7-7 record. Look for Dallas to stay hot at home and add to Miami's road woes. Play Dallas

Accuscore

SDSU vs BYU

This year’s Poinsettia Bowl features a great match-up between the BYU Cougars (7-5) and San Diego State Aztecs (9-3). Until recent realignment, these two teams were quite familiar with one another due to a Mountain West conference rivalry. Now BYU is independent, and SDSU is headed for the Big East (for now). Don’t let the records fool you; these two teams are evenly matched and Thursday’s bowl game could be one that goes down to the final whistle.

AccuScore has the Cougars as slight 50.5 percent favorites with the average score projected to be 27.3-26.6. BYU is favored by 3.5 points but has just a 42.2 percent chance of covering that spread. There is a 59.5 percent chance that the total goes OVER 58.5 points. Based on AccuScore’s data, the safest bet would be to take SDSU and the points.

After posting an impressive 10-3 record last year, BYU seemed to disappoint more often than not this season. Bronco Mendenhall’s team lost five times, four by six points or fewer. The trend of losing close games has been primarily blamed on inconsistent quarterback play. Riley Nelson has been in and out of the lineup this season due to injuries and has been substantially more erratic than he was last year. In 2011 he threw for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and finished the year with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. This year, Nelson's interceptions went up, and his touchdowns went down. Also, his yards per pass attempt were down and he was sacked more often. This season he threw for 2,011 yards (59.2 percent completion rate) and a passer rating of 120.1. He has thrown for 13 TDs and 12 INTs. AccuScore projects 252 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a passer rating of 133.5 for Nelson against the Aztecs. Quarterback James Lark has been receiving snaps in practice, but at this time Nelson is still projected to start.

BYU’s rush attack isn’t anything extra special either. The Cougars get approximately 4.75 yards per carry (which is actually a yard more than SDSU). Running back Jamaal Williams has rushed for 744 yards (4.9 ypc) and 11 TDs this season. He is projected to carry it 13 times for 65 yards and has a high probability of seeing the end-zone. Michael Alisa and Nelson are projected to carry it ten times each as well; Alisa is projected to rush for 43 yards and Nelson, 22. "Wide receiver Cody Hoffman, who caught for 1,134 yards and 11 TDs, is projected to catch it 6 times for 74 yards."

Simply put, BYU’s offensive numbers are not impressive. Their defense, however, is a different story. BYU led the nation in red zone efficiency defense, limiting touchdowns by forcing turnovers and field goals week after week. They are among the nation's leaders in rush defense, total defense and points allowed. The defense is projected to get 2+ sacks, and has a very high probability of forcing 2 turnovers (an interception and a fumble).

The Aztecs, offensively, are much more ground-driven than the Cougars. They are led by quarterback Adam Dingwell and running back Adam Muema. Muema has carried it 211 times this season for 1,355 yards (6.4 ypc) and 16 TDs. His longest run was for 83 yards. Sophomore QB Dingwell has thrown for 795 yards (6.91 ypa) with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.

Muema is projected to carry it 16+ times for 89 yards and a TD. Dingwell is projected to throw for 208 yards, 1-2 TDs, and 1 INT, with a passer rating of 133.8. The other main Aztec back, Walter Kazee, is projected to carry it 12 times for 56 yards. Wide receiver Gavin Escobar is projected to catch it three times for 37 yards.

SDSU’s defense has held five of their last seven opponents under 19 points. After starting the season giving up big plays, the defense improved as the season progressed and ended the regular season very well. BYU coach Mendenhall is familiar with SDSU head coach Rocky Long as Mendenhall was Long’s defensive coordinator when they were both at New Mexico. The SDSU defense is projected to also get 2+ sacks along with forcing two turnovers (an INT and a fumble).

These two teams are familiar with each other and the projection data clearly shows that. Neither team has much of an advantage in any aspect of the game; we should expect a close one throughout. I’ll go with AccuScore and say BYU wins by 3.

Jimmy Boyd

Eastern Michigan +24.5

The time to fade Michigan is now. Just look at the numbers. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 10 or more consecutive wins are 139-79 (63.8%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Furthermore, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 10 or more consecutive wins, provided they are undefeated on the season, are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites of 20 or more points after 7 or more consecutive wins are 59-31 (65.6%) ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 24.8 points but have won by only 22.4 points on average. In addition, Eastern Michigan is on a 28-14 ATS run in road games after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. The Eagles are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Take Eastern Mich.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SAN DIEGO STATE +3 over BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego and that means home field advantage for the Aztecs. BYU favored here is a little out of whack, as these Cougars really did nothing all year to warrant this billing. When we look at BYU’s 7-5 record we see them beating one team above .500 all season. That was a 6-3 bizarre win over Utah State. All of BYU’s other wins with the exception of one, came against teams that had three wins or less the entire season. They closed out the campaign with back-to-back wins over New Mexico State and Idaho, who went a combined 2-22. The Cougars offense is about as pedestrian as they come, they have several key injuries and they’re being asked to win by a margin here.
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The Aztecs won their final seven games to end up 9-3 on the year. They’re powered almost exclusively by tailback Adam Muema, who lost backfield mate Walter Kazee to injury in the season finale. While that certainly is a factor in the line, Muema was still a monster all year and he’s more than capable of handling the workload. SDSU finished 15th in the nation with 229 yards per game on the ground and 44th in points allowed. A defensive struggle is almost certain here and the three points being offered makes the Aztecs more appealing in a toss-up game that they’re just as likely to win as the Cougars. No units risked.
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MINNESOTA +153 over Oklahoma CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Thunder are rolling big time. They’ve won 12 in a row and 20 of their past 22 games. However, with just three games on the board tonight and this being a featured TNT Thursday double-header, the oddsmakers are fully aware of the interest in this lone early game. They’ve made OKC a very enticing small favorite against a 12-11 club. Don’t take the bait. Oklahoma City concludes a three game in four night stretch and will be off until Christmas Day when they travel to Miami to take on the Heat in a rematch of last year’s finals. With the NBA’s best record and no urgency whatsoever, they will surely be looking ahead to a little break and that featured Christmas day game.
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For the T-Wolves, it’s all about tonight. Minnesota is without question, the best 12-11 team in the Association. The Wolves' offense has new life with Kevin Love firmly entrenched in the middle and the creative Ricky Rubio back from injury. Minnesota’s rebounding, bench and defense all rank higher than the Thunder and at some point this Oklahoma City team is going to take a breather. The line strongly suggests this is that night.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Washington +8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Weber State is getting a little too much respect on the road against an Eastern Washington squad that will be hungry to end a three-game losing streak in the series. The Wildcats have not been a reliable investment as they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. It is also worth mentioning that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

Timothy BlackFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iona vs. La SalleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: La SalleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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La Salle is winning by an average of 10 ppg this season and already has two good wins over Villanova and Penn State. With that experience on hand, a home date with Iona doesn't figure to slow them down much. La Salle is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record and 15-5-3 ATS in their last 23 overall home games. The Gaels of Iona are winless ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record.

Jeff Scott SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU -3 over SAN DIEGO STATE: The Aztecs are at home for this one but this Cougars team has been battle tested on the road this year so they shouldn't be intimidated by this setting. On the year the Cougars have a 1 point loss at Boise State, a 3 point loss at Notre Dame and they crushed Georgia Tech on the road 41-17. That Tech game may be the most impressive as they held the nations 4th ranked rushing offense to just 117 yards on the ground. The Aztecs are a run first team and they average 5.1 ypc, but those yards won't come easy in this one as the Cougars have the 2nd ranked rushing defense, allowing just 84.3 on 2.7 ypc. The Aztecs are not a good passing team team (108th), which should make it hard for them to move the ball on this tough Cougar defense. On Offense BYU averages 161.6 ypg on the ground and 247.5 ypg through the air. They run just about as much as they throw and that makes them a pretty balanced offense. The Aztec defense has been decent of late, but they have problems defensing the pass as they have allowed 234 ypg through the air and 7 ypa. BYU will be able to move the ball on them. SDSU has looked good at home of late, but playing UNLV, Air Force, Colorado State and Hawaii will make any team look good. The Aztecs do have a signature win at Boise State, but didn't get one offensive TD in that game and they only gained 269 total yards vs the Broncos. The Aztecs has been outgained by 77 ypg vs bowl eligible teams this year, while the Cougars have outgained bowl eligible foes by 30 ypg. Cougars have edges on both sides of the ball, they have played well on the road and have done better vs a tougher schedule. BYU by at least a TD here.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nicholls State at Utah St.
Prediction: Utah St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Colonels (1-5) have had eight days off after their 79-76 loss at New Orleans -- and they are just 2-8-1 ATS following a loss even without the problem regarding post-exam rust. Nicholls State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road. And in their last 11 games against non-conference opponents, the Colonels are a mere 3-7-1 ATS. Utah State (6-1) takes care of business in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. The Aggies enter this contest after their 69-63 win versus Utah Valley State on Saturday -- and they have then covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win. Take Utah State minus the points in this one.