Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UC Davis vs. Southern IllinoisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Southern IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal Davis is a bottom-feeder team coming off a 5-26 season. They’re 2-6 so far this year, as head coach Jim Les was forced to bring in nine new players to his roster in an effort to rebuild. But the Aggies have earned some betting market respect with some tighter-than expected losses.
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Those losses -- at Oklahoma State, Idaho and Nevada and a couple of high scoring wins -- Eastern Washington and Sacramento State – have the markets somewhat bullish on the Aggies. But when Cal Davis has faced a strong defensive foe, their offense has bogged down, and they are light years away from being a good team on the defensive end of the court, allowing more than 75 points per game this season.
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Southern Illinois allows only 59 points per game on 42% shooting. But the key stat is their 0.56 assist-to-turnover ratio allowed, forcing more than 17 turnovers per game while allowing less than ten assists. They’re in excellent current form, blowing out New Orleans in their last game and winning at Wisconsin-Green Bay before that – the same GB team that just knocked off Marquette on that same floor last night.
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Southern Illinois struggled to an eight win season last year and were projected to be the worst team in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. But first year head coach Barry Hinson – a former Kansas assistant and head coach at Missouri State for nine seasons – has his four returning starters from last year playing at a very high level right now. There’s a class difference between these two teams that simply isn’t reflected in this pointspread. Take Southern Illinois.
Joe GavazziFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City -3FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Your TNT nightcap featuring Miami at Dallas is our 3* NBA play today. It is joined by another College 3* to make this a very sweet evening for you in the world of Hoops. But before you watch those games unfold consider the following fact: OKC is on a 12-0 SU run and don't think it's just offense. In that span, they are allowing just 42% from the field. They have also won 12 consecutive games in the series from the TWolves. OKC HC Brook is 71-43 ATS (17-7 ATS TY) in the first half of the season, before the line gets over-adjusted. The TWolves have been playing a rigorous schedule. This will be their 5 game in 7 nights and 6 games in 9 nights. HC Addelman in his career is just 28 - 56 ATS when coaching a team playing 5 in 7 nights. OKC is the only side if you are suiting up.
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Denver Nuggets -5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland will be playing without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight due to an ankle sprain, while Wesley Matthews is also questionable for tonight. Nicolas Batum is also dealing with some back issues, so the Blazers will severely be shorthanded and banged up for tonight. Portland's offense depends a lot from LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews and without these two players, their offensive ratings get much worse (With Aldridge: 109.1; Without Aldridge: 94.5; With Matthews: 110.5; Without Matthews: 95.2). The Blazers have usually a respectable starting lineup, but without these two players, Portland loses a lot, especially without Aldridge's inside presence that forces extra attention on him, while Damian Lillard gains more freedom on the outside.
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Denver is #1 on the league in pick and roll ball handler defense by allowing just 0.67 PPP, while they are also #4 on transition defense. Therefore, Portland's offense will be in huge trouble tonight. On the other side, Denver has been playing much better lately. Portland's defense is #27 on transitions, #29 on paint defense with 44.0 ppg allowed and #29 on cuts defense. This is everything the Nuggets like to do on offense and with Damian Lillard defending Ty Lawson, Denver will have a great offensive matchup tonight.
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Portland is 3-0 on their last three games. They had the merit of beating San Antonio on a poor spot for them, but their last two wins were against Toronto and New Orleans, two slow paced teams that are unable to score in transition. This time, they will face a team that is #2 on fast break points per game with 17.6 ppg and while Denver is a terrible matchup for Portland's defense, the Blazers offense will struggle tonight without Aldridge. I expect a blowout win for Denver tonight, so I'll be taking them in here.
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Eastern Washington +8FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Weber State is getting a little too much respect on the road against an Eastern Washington squad that will be hungry to end a three-game losing streak in the series. The Wildcats have not been a reliable investment as they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. It is also worth mentioning that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.
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Cal Irvine +9.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC can't be trusted laying this many points against an experienced UC Irvine squad. USC is 12-27 ATS in all lined games over the last 2 seasons and is 4-16 ATS in all home lined games during this span. The Trojans are also 0-9 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons versus good defensive teams that give up 64 points or less per game. The Irvine defense is more than capable of slowing down a weak USC offense that averages only 64.1 ppg. Take the points.
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Miami Heat -5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Miami Heat haven't forgot about that heartbreaking loss to the Mavericks in the 2011 NBA Finals, and I look for them to come out extremely focused in tonight's TNT showdown. The Heat dominated both games between these two teams last year, winning 105-94 at Dallas and 106-85 in Miami. Without Dirk Nowitzki the Mavericks are no match for the Heat. They might be able to keep it close early, but I expect Miami to take over in the second half. Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning % of .600 or better!
Jack JonesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Portland Trail Blazers +5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line is simply an overreaction to the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge is expected to miss this game tonight. Sure, he is arguably Portland's best player, but he's not worth as many points as the oddsmakers are giving him in this contest against the Denver Nuggets.
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Portland is playing well having won three straight coming into this one, including a 98-90 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. It is 7-4 at home this season, while the Nuggets are just 7-11 on the road. Denver is giving up a whopping 103.1 points/game away from home this year.
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Home-court advantage is clearly huge in this series. The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this series. In fact, Portland has not lost by more than 3 points at home to Denver in any of its last 11 home meetings.
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The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. Denver is 2-11 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 77-53 ATS in its last 130 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Bet the Blazers Thursday.
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Southern Illinois at Nicholls StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Southern IllinoisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Southern Illinois is a much improved team over the one that finished 8-23 last season and that is reflected by the fact the Salukis were a miserable 2-11 on the road last year and come into this game 3-2 in their “away” games. This is not to suggest Southern Illinois is an outstanding basketball team but merely to point out it is playing well and at a much higher performance profile than is UC-Davis. UC-Davis has beaten only Eastern Washington (2-8) and Sacramento State (6-3) this season and simply seems up against it tonight.
Rob Veno
Pepperdine at Tulane
Play: Pepperdine
Despite knowing that this is the championship game of Tulane’s own holiday tournament and that the Green Wave is off to an 8-3 start this season, I have a hard time finding the eight points worth of separation given to them in this contest. Tulane’s non-conference schedule ranks 345th according to Ken Pom. Their slate is littered with teams that own RPI’s of 200 or worse – Georgia Tech and Nebraska are their only opponents possessing an RPI better than 214. Pepperdine’s schedule has not been much better, but it is better. The Waves have faced a pair of PAC-12 opponents (Cal and Washington State) along with early season surprise Cal State-Northridge and a much improved Central Michigan team (5-4 SU, 5-3 ATS vs. a tough schedule).
Fundamentally these teams are very similar statistically on defense but Pepperdine holds more than just a slight edge in almost every offensive category. The senior leadership of PG Caleb Willis (2.5-1 assist-turnover ratio) has been key for the Pepperdine offense and figures to be significant tonight. Tulane doesn’t have an established true floor general and star sophomore guard Ricky Tarrant’s shooting numbers have suffered greatly this season because he has to do too much. Power forward Josh Davis tore Texas-Pan American up last night (11-14 FGs, 23 pts) but that production is likely to be slowed down tonight by Pepperdine’s freshman post force Stacy Davis (6-6, 240). Depth could also be an issue here in the second of back-back nights since Pepperdine’s double-digit minutes are dispersed nine deep and Tulane’s only plays seven (six players over 23 mpg). Last night’s minutes log was about the same on each side and because of the blowout victory over UTPA, Tulane head coach Ed Conroy was able to keep some starters’ minutes down.
An outright upset appears to be a real possibility in this title game between a pair of very comparable foes. In the end, Pepperdine’s FG shooting, PG play and ability to neutralize Tulane’s strengths should be good enough to get in under the +8.