Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, December 22

DUNKEL INDEX

South Florida at Southern Mississippi
The Golden Eagles look to take advantage of a South Florida team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games. Southern Mississippi is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-8)

Game 541-542: South Alabama at vs. San Diego (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 53.465; San Diego 47.350
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 6; 131
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-4 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Bradley at Michigan (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 53.787; Michigan 68.071
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 14 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Michigan by 18; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+18); Over

Game 545-546: Bowling Green at Florida International (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 52.941; Florida International 52.225
Dunkel Line: Even; 123
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+2); Under

Game 547-548: Central Michigan at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 48.705; Wright State 52.590
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 4; 122
Vegas Line: Wright State by 2; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-2); Over

Game 549-550: Eastern Michigan at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 44.803; Virginia Tech 70.211
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 25 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 20 1/2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-20 1/2); Over

Game 551-552: James Madison at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 54.868; George Washington 55.552
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 1; 128
Vegas Line: George Washington by 2 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+2 1/2); Under

Game 553-554: Tulane at Syracuse (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 58.880; Syracuse 75.961
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 17; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 20 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+20 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Northeastern at NC State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 49.833; NC State 65.938
Dunkel Line: NC State by 16; 139
Vegas Line: NC State by 13; 145
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-13); Under

Game 557-558: Florida Atlantic at Havard (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 54.947; Harvard 66.747
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 12; 133
Vegas Line: Harvard by 14 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+14 1/2); Over

Game 559-560: Florida State at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 65.997; Florida 77.732
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12; 132
Vegas Line: Florida by 8; 136
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-8); Under

Game 561-562: Miami (FL) at Charlotte (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 60.586; Charlotte 61.673
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 1; 132
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+1); Over

Game 563-564: Memphis at Georgetown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 64.721; Georgetown 75.746
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 11; 139
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-4 1/2); Under

Game 565-566: South Florida at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 53.833; Southern Mississippi 67.517
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 13 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 8; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-8); Over

Game 567-568: Idaho at WI-Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 58.996; WI-Green Bay 57.252
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 1 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+2); Under

Game 569-570: Northwestern at Creighton (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.001; Creighton 71.774
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 10; 141
Vegas Line: Creighton by 7; 150
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-7); Under

Game 571-572: LSU at North Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 60.582; North Texas 57.664
Dunkel Line: LSU by 3; 133
Vegas Line: LSU by 7; 129
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+7); Over

Game 573-574: Rice at Texas A&M (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 54.040; Texas A&M 66.796
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 13; 123
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 9 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-9 1/2); Under

Game 575-576: Arkansas State at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 52.431; St. Louis 65.916
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 13 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 17 1/2; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+17 1/2); Over

Game 577-578: Louisiana Tech at Arkansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 45.911; Arkansas 63.352
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 17 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 14 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-14 1/2); Over

Game 579-580: Boise State at Iowa (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 60.300; Iowa 62.815
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 2 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Iowa by 4; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (+4); Under

Game 581-582: Miami (OH) at Ohio State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 53.392; Ohio State 76.701
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 23 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 24 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+24 1/2); Over

Game 583-584: Air Force at Gonzaga (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 54.941; Gonzaga 72.762
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 18; 124
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 15 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-15 1/2); Under

Game 585-586: UC-Santa Barbara at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 58.974; BYU 74.785
Dunkel Line: BYU by 16; 138
Vegas Line: BYU by 11 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-11 1/2); Under

Game 587-588: Butler at Stanford (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 58.970; Stanford 68.602
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 9 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Stanford by 12 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+12 1/2); Over

Game 589-590: WI-Milwaukee at Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 61.088; Marquette 70.786
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 9 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Marquette by 13 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+13 1/2); Over

Game 591-592: Illinois at Missouri (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.026; Missouri 73.943
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 10; 133
Vegas Line: Missouri by 6 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-6 1/2); Under

Game 593-594: CS-Northridge at Washington (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 45.636; Washington 63.212
Dunkel Line: Washington by 17 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Washington by 120; 159
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+20); Under

Game 595-596: Portland at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 47.517; Nevada 64.088
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 16 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Nevada by 12 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-12 1/2); Over

Game 597-598: Pepperdine at Washington State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 51.938; Washington State 60.936
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 9; 123
Vegas Line: Washington State by 13; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+13); Under

Game 599-600: San Jose State at UC-Riverside (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 46.709; UC-Riverside 53.004
Dunkel Line: UC-Riverside by 6 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: UC-Riverside by 4 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (-4 1/2); Over

Game 601-602: Kansas at USC (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 70.103; USC 64.986
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 5; 119
Vegas Line: Kansas by 7; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (+7); Under

Game 603-604: UTEP vs. Clemson (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 53.584; Clemson 62.717
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 9; 122
Vegas Line: Clemson by 7; 118
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-7); Over

Game 605-606: Kansas State vs. Southern Illinois (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 67.152; Southern Illinois 53.076
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 14; 129
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 15; 125
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+15); Over

Game 607-608: Long Beach State vs. Xavier (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 65.430; Xavier 61.641
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 4; 133
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 1 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 609-610: Auburn at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 57.841; Hawaii 53.203
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Auburn by 1; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-1); Over

Game 611-612: Tennessee Tech vs. Kennesaw State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 51.639; Kennesaw State 42.207
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 9 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 10; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kennesaw State (+10); Under

Game 609-610: Auburn at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 57.841; Hawaii 53.203
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Auburn by 1; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-1); Over

Game 611-612: Tennessee Tech vs. Kennesaw State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 51.639; Kennesaw State 42.207
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 9 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 10; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kennesaw State (+10); Under

Game 613-614: Bethune-Cookman vs. TX-Corpus Christi (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 44.634; TX-Corpus Christi 46.607
Dunkel Line: TX-Corpus Christi by 2; 123
Vegas Line: Pick; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-Corpus Christi; Over

Game 615-616: Missouri State vs. West Virginia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 60.780; West Virginia 68.487
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 4 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 617-618: St. Mary's vs. Baylor (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 66.489; Baylor 69.730
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 3;
Vegas Line: Baylor by 4 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+4 1/2);

Game 619-620: TX-Arlington vs. St. Peter's (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 621-622: Kent State at Utah State (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 623-624: Loyola-MD at Kentucky (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 53.702; Kentucky 80.276
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 27; 137
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 24; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-24); Under

Wunderdog

Arizona State vs. Boise State
Play: Arizona State +14

It is almost unfair to think that this Boise State team went from challenging for a BCS Bowl to a pre-Christmas Bowl. What caused the huge drop? One loss by a single point to a quality 10-2 team. The Broncos rank No. 6 in the nation, but were slighted again despite a 14-point win over Georgia on a neutral field, while Georgia plays after New Year's Day with their three losses. This one takes on the appearance of the last time the Broncos were slighted and played against East Carolina back in ‘07-‘08 in a disappointment Bowl. In that game the Broncos went down 41-38 to the Pirates in a shootout. Arizona State comes limping into this one on the heels of four straight losses, and barely made it at 6-6 on the season. It is a chance for redemption and a winning season against a quality program that has become a Top 10 fixture. Remember that this team Sun Devils beat Missouri and USC, and gave Oregon a run for their money as well. So, they can certainly play on this level. Their offense has not been a shortcoming with the Sun Devils producing 27 or more points in all but one game this season. They will certainly get their share here vs. what should be a less than focused Broncos defense. Couple that with a pair of TDs in the line and this one is certainly chock full of value. Even with losing their last four, Arizona State did not lose any by more than 9 points and no one beat them by more than 14 points all year. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 when taking more than +10.5 points, and Boise State is 0-6 ATS in their last six. Take Arizona State.

Rob Vinciletti

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators

Nashville is a little to high for unit rating here tonight. However as a free play they are certainly worth a look. The Predators have won 28 of the last 33 here vs Columbus. They have won 5 of the last 6 overall and 4 of 5 after scoring 1 or less goal Tonight they take on a Columbus team they have beaten 2 of 3 this season. Columbus has lost 9 of the last 11 with home loss revenge and 30 of the last 40 in December games the past few seasons. In division games they have dropped 8 of 10 and 14 of 18 overall vs teams with a winning record. Look for Nashville to get the win.

Matt Fargo

Davidson at Massachusetts
Play: Massachusetts -2.5

Talk about a letdown. Davidson is coming off a monumental win over Kansas on Monday and while it was not at Allen Fieldhouse, it was still in Kansas City so it was a massive win on an enemy floor. The Jayhawks had won 13 of the 15 games they had played at the Sprint Center, which is 30 minutes from campus, including the last two Big XII Championships. The Wildcats also got some revenge from their 2008 NCAA Tournament loss so that win was big in more ways than one. Massachusetts is off to a 9-3 start which may be a surprise to some but the Minutemen could be a surprise team in the Atlantic-10 this season. The loss of Anthony Gurley was definitely a big one but the Minutemen have responded well by beating the teams they need to beat and that includes tonight's foe. The three losses this season came against high quality opposition in Florida St., Charleston and Miami (Florida) and it is important to note those were all away from home. Obviously Davidson has proved that it can win away from home in a tough environment however this situation is much different. The Wildcats were not coming off a big win prior to playing Kansas and actually it was just the opposite. They were coming off a blowout loss against Charlotte so that result arguably fired them up even more, and plus it had over a week to stew about it. Davidson head coach Bob McKillop summed it up very well, "This was as pure as it gets, and to win in this environment is very special." The Minutemen are coming off a bit of a scare as they needed an 18-0 run to start the second half to defeat Quinnipiac. They trailed at four at halftime and while some will suggest that makes them just a mediocre team, I feel it shows a lot of heart as it was able to take control against an overmatched foe. A lookahead to this game was entirely possible as well. As good as Davidson has been, it has struggled on the road as the Wildcats are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.

Jim Feist

Portland State vs. Cal St-Fullerton
Play: Cal St-Fullerton -11

A great situational handicapping spot for the home team, as it's the third game of a 5-game homestand for Cal State Fullerton. The Titans (7-3) will try to win their fifth in a row against Portland State (6-5). The Vikings are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big West. Cal State Fullerton 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a blowout win of more than 20 points. Their uptempo offense will keep the hot streak going. Play Cal State Fullerton!

BANG THE BOOK

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Boise State Broncos (-14, 66)

The pre-Christmas bowl game schedule is not exactly filled with exciting matchups, but I think this game is the best of the bunch. Arizona State was inconsistent this year, but they showed what they are capable of in a pretty good PAC 12 Conference. Boise State was a missed field goal away from likely being in the BCS National Championship Game. Will the Broncos deliver another dominating bowl appearance or will the Sun Devils spoil the party?

Arizona State’s Brock Osweiler is a very good quarterback. Osweiler spreads the ball around nicely from his spot under center. He finished the season with an impressive 3,641 yards through the air. There is no clear star at the wide receiver spot for Arizona State, but the Sun Devils have a lot of depth. The team has ten players with ten or more receptions this season. Cameron Marshall is a work horse in the backfield. Marshall ran for 18 touchdowns during the regular season. Arizona State averages 34 points per contest.

The Sun Devils defense struggled with injuries this year, and it definitely showed on the field. Arizona State is missing a couple of cornerbacks, and the lack of depth at cornerback showed in a big way during the PAC 12 season. The Sun Devils allowed 271 yards per game through the air. The front seven wasn’t very good at getting after the quarterback, but they hold their own against the run.

Kellen Moore has had a brilliant four-year career at Boise State. He certainly wants to end that terrific career on a high note. Moore has piled up a ridiculous 140 touchdowns compared to just 26 interceptions in his four years under center. This season he has a career high completion percentage of 74%. He is clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, and I fully expect him to put together one final great game. Boise State has a pair of great tailbacks in Doug Martin and D.J. Harper. Martin is the bruiser and Harper is the slasher. The Broncos have seven receivers with at least 26 receptions this year. Tyler Shoemaker has been the team’s big play receiver. The Broncos average 43 points per game.

Boise State’s defense took a small step back this year, but they are still a very solid unit. The front seven really struggled to put pressure on the opposing quarterback this year. The Broncos picked up just 18 sacks all season. On the positive side, this is a unit that allowed opponents to convert on only 30% of their third-down conversion attempts. They are a team that does a nice job keeping the opponent out of the end zone. This defense gave up only 18.2 points per game this year.

Arizona State already fired its coach, and I don’t think they will be able to slow down Boise State at all. Look for the Broncos to roll.

PICK: Boise State Broncos -13.5

BANG THE BOOK

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+5.5, 40)

On the same weekend that the Green Bay Packers dropped their first game of the season, the Indianapolis Colts won their first game. Indianapolis picked up an impressive two touchdown win at home over the Tennessee Titans. Houston booked its first trip to the playoffs two weeks ago in Cincinnati. The Texans were beaten 28-13 at home by the Carolina Panthers. Can they get back on track this Thursday in Indianapolis?

Dan Orlovsky has come in and done a nice job at quarterback for the Colts. Indianapolis was getting poor quarterback play all year from Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter, but Orlovsky has been a big upgrade. Orlovsky has completed 64% of his passes during his three games as a starter. He has a quarterback rating of 85.9, which is about 20 points higher than Collins or Painter. Pierre Garcon is the Colts leading receiver this year. Garcon has 62 catches and six touchdown receptions in 2011. The most encouraging part of last week’s game for this offense was the emergence of Donald Brown in the backfield. Brown had 28 carries for 161 yards. If the Colts can continue to get the running game going, it will help them be much more competitive to finish off the year.

Indianapolis has Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the edges as a terrific pass rushing tandem, but the Colts defense doesn’t have too much else going for it this season. This unit has allowed 28.2 points per game. Pat Angerer has stepped up as the team’s most consistent linebacker, but the Colts need more play makers on defense.

T.J. Yates had a great first few weeks in the NFL, but last weekend is a week he’d rather forget. Yates threw no touchdowns and two interceptions in the team’s loss last week. The Texans have the second best rushing offense in the league. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have both been nearly unstoppable this season. Foster has gained 1,066 rushing yards already this season, and he has nine touchdown runs. He is also second on the team in both receptions and receiving yards. Tate has had a breakout season in the backfield as well. He is averaging a very impressive 5.5 yards per carry. Andre Johnson is listed as questionable for this game due to a hamstring injury.

The Texans defense has been superb this season. This is a secondary that ranked dead last in the league last year against the pass, but this year they have been tremendous. Johnathan Joseph was a huge acquisition in the offseason for this unit, and he has proven to be a lockdown corner this season. Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans form a terrific tandem of middle linebackers. This is a complete defense that has no real weakness. Houston is giving up just 16.9 points per game.

The Colts offense has been much better over the last few games. Houston should be able to move the ball quite a bit against the weak Indianapolis defense. The over is my favorite play in this one.

PICK: Over 40.5

Scott Spreitzer

Baylor at St. Marys
Prediction: Baylor

With the Las Vegas Bowl taking place a few miles east of the strip, the Orleans Arena will play host to the Las Vegas Classic just a mile or 2 west of the strip. Missouri State, West Virginia, and St. Mary's are 3 of the 8 teams who'll see action on Thursday. But the best team of them all is the Baylor Bears. Baylor went into the ultra-tough Marriott Center in Provo, Utah this past weekend, withstood an outstanding first half by host BYU, then came back to win 86-83. Baylor has proven themselves against decent opposition in a tough environment. Meanwhile, the St. Mary's Gaels have jumped out to a 10-1 SU record, but against soft opposition. SMC feels they have better depth than last year's version and they are a team that should get a Big Dance invite in March. But their "bigs" can't hang with Baylor's...it's as simple as that. The Bears' big men can take it inside or on the perimeter and they're simply too athletic for just about every team on their schedule, including the Gaels. Five players average in double-figures in scoring and eight players average at least 6 ppg. Perry Jones and Quincy Acy will go unmatched in tonight's contest, in my opinion. And I believe SMC will find out just how much they miss Mickey McConnell (graduated) and his big game shooting. The Gaels will face a true final-4 contender that's ridiculously strong at both ends of the floor. Baylor is 19th in the nation in scoring and 8th in both FG shooting percentage and behind the arc. The Bears are also allowing just 57 ppg and they're 4th in college baskets, allowing just over 34% shooting. I believe this will be a bit of an eye-opener for the Gaels when they finish on the short end of the final score. I'm laying the points with Baylor on Thursday night.

BEN BURNS

Ducks @ Kings
Pick: Under 5.5

Any time that you can get the Kings with an O/U line of 5.5, it's worth a second look. (Even if you have to pay some extra 'juice' to get that line.)

LA has seen the 'under' go a lucrative 17-7-8 this season. That includes a 2-0 mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. Going back further finds the 'under' at 38-29 the past few seasons, when the Kings have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.

This year, Kings' games are averaging only 4.7 goals, including a mere 4.0 here at LA.

The Ducks haven't been quite as profitable an 'under' team. However, they've still seen the 'under' go 47-37 the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of 5.5. Its also worth noting that the 'under' is 9-2 in their games, when facing a team with a losing record.

Looking at the series history shows that two of this season's three meetings have fallen below the total. The lone game here at LA finished with a score of 2-1.

Going back further finds the 'under' at 8-1 the last nine meetings in this series, including a perfect 5-0 here at LA. Given that those five games averaged less than four combined goals, the 'under' 5.5 is well worth considering.

Sean Murphy

Montreal Canadiens @ Winnipeg Jets
PICK: Winnipeg

The Habs are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row. The coaching change seems to have done little, as new boss Randy Cunneyworth has gone 0-3 since making his debut on Saturday.

This doesn't appear to be a favorable spot for the Canadiens to get back on track, playing the second of back-to-back nights following a listless performance in Chicago last night.

Yes, Montreal did beat Winnipeg 5-1 earlier this season, but keep in mind, that was the Jets first game, they've showed steady improvement since then.

Winnipeg is coming off a tough 3-2 shootout loss to the Islanders on Tuesday, but it's worth noting that they've yet to lose back-to-back games this month.

The Jets are in a much better scheduling spot here, playing the fifth game of a six-game homestand, and for only the second time in the last five nights. By contrast, the Habs will be taking the ice for the sixth time in the last 10 nights.

Montreal will get a nice break following tonight's game, not playing again until next Tuesday in Ottawa. I suspect they'll have a better shot at breaking out of their funk during a stretch that will see them face the Senators, Lightning, and Panthers before the New Year.

Tonight, look for the Jets to take full advantage of the Canadiens' struggles and gain an ounce of revenge in the process.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston –6 over INDIANAPOLIS

Colts shook a monkey off their backs with first win of season last week over the Titans. It was Indy’s first win without Peyton Manning at quarterback since 1997. However, Dan Orlovsky was anything but impressive, having thrown for a mere 82 yards in his first career win spanning seven years and nine starts. The Texans figure to get back on their horse after taking a breather against the Panthers last week on the heels of locking up their first-ever playoff berth. The line is short because Houston travels on a short week and got whacked by the Panthers last week. However, the Colts celebrated their win like a playoff game and accomplished their goal of not going winless. Let’s also not forget that the Texans have been the Colts whipping boys for years. With a chance to bury Indianapolis and solidify a higher seed in the playoffs in the process, expect the Texans to do exactly that. Play: Houston –6 (No bets).

Arizona State +14½ over Boise St

Dennis Erickson is coaching his last game for the Sun Devils after being let go following a disappointing finish to the season but we've seen many teams in the past rise to the occasion under the same circumstances. The Sun Devils closed the year with four straight losses but it wasn’t for a lack of scoring, having tallied at least 27 points in each. The strength of the Sun Devils' offense has been the arm of QB Brock Osweiler. The young Osweiler is actually ranked ahead of his highly regarded counterpart in this game. He’ll probably return next season for his senior year and should be one of the leading QB’s in next year’s draft class. The 6-foot-8, 240-pound Osweiler has elite physical tools and more than adequate mobility for his size. He’s worth the price of admission and it’s quite risky giving a guy like that a two-touchdown head start. He led his Sun Devils to a pair of solid wins against ranked teams, including Missouri and USC. The Broncos bring a potent offense to the table as well, led by their ace senior quarterback, Kellen Moore. Moore is surrounded by a bunch of senior players but we’re not sure if the motivation is there for Boise as their lofty expectations of a bigger bowl game were not met. Boise State feels like it was snubbed by the BCS but that’s what you get when you schedule games against dregs and don’t run the table. Call it pouting if you will but the Broncos failed to cover a game from October 15th on, a 0-6 run versus the spread. The Broncos played two creditable opponents all year. They opened the year with a win over Georgia and they lost to TCU. Other than that, it was garbage time for the Broncos and along with that comes a bunch of skewed stats. The Sun Devils bring enough to the table to keep this one within range. Play: Arizona St +14½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Arizona State Sun Devils +14

I usually don't like to back a team that lost four games straight up and against the spread to end the season, but I like ASU to keep this one very close. Boise State looks to clearly be the better team on paper, but when you throw in two extra touchdowns I don't believe that to be the case. Boise State went 7-1 straight up, but just 2-6 against the spread versus bowl teams this year and the Sun Devils have the offense to put points on the board. ASU quarterback Brock Osweiler had a very solid first season as the Sun Devils full-time starting quarterback averaging over 300 yards per game on the season as Arizona State averaged 34 points per game. Boise State can't be too thrilled to be playing in the Las Vegas bowl, while Arizona State should have more enthusiasm has this is their first bowl in four years and they are being coached for the last time by Dennis Erickson who was fired after the Sun Devils loss to Cal. Take the points.

DAVID BANKS

Arizona State / Boise State Over

The Las Vegas Bowl is set to go on Thursday night in Sin City where the Boise State Broncos (11-1, 4-8 ATS) will look to win it for the second year in a row against the Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6, 4-8 ATS); kick-off from Sam Boyd Stadium is set to go live at 8:00 ET on ESPN & ESPN3.com.

With the USC Trojans ineligible to participate in the first ever PAC-12 Championship Game, it was of the belief that the South Division was for the Sun Devils taking. Head coach Dennis Erickson had 15 starters returning from last year's 6-6 SU team that just missed out on snapping its three-year bowl-less streak. After a hot 5-1 SU start over the course of its first six games played, ASU fell of the map dropping all but one of its last six games played which included losing outright as favorites against UCLA, Washington State, Arizona and California to close out the year. Due to coming up woefully short of the programs expected goals, Erickson was shown the door and Todd Graham – formerly at PITT - has been hired to run his potentially explosive offense in the desert for the foreseeable future. Arizona State won just one of its five games played away from Sun Devil Stadium (2-3 ATS) on the year, and checks in with a 1-5 ATS tally in its L/6 December games played.

Another one-loss season for the Broncos, and it’s another trip to Sin City where the Broncos certainly don’t deserve to be. This is a program that’s gone a combined 37-2 SU the L/3 seasons and has just one BCS appearance during that stretch. Head coach Chris Petersen finally blew up about the lack of respect for his program once the Broncos bowl destination was announced. "Everybody is just very tired of the BCS," Petersen said. "I think that's the bottom line. Everybody is frustrated. Everybody doesn't really know what to do anymore. It doesn't make sense to anybody. I don't think anybody is happy anywhere." Petersen added, "The whole thing needs to be changed, there's no question about it," he said. " ... I think (change) is coming, I really do." Whether this outlook about where it’s playing affects Boise State’s play is yet to be determined, but what CFB bettors do know is that the Broncos have covered eight of their L/10 bowl games having throttled Utah 26-3 in this venue a year ago.

These teams have only collided on the gridiron once back in 1996 when Arizona State handed Boise State a 56-7 beat down as 38 point favorites. The Sun Devils check in 6-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in their L/9 non-conference tussles, but have covered the closing number at an 8-2-1 ATS clip the L/11 times they were installed underdogs of 10.5 points or more. Boise State has covered each of its L/5 neutral field bouts and stands 5-2-1 ATS its L/8 against the Pac-12, but it's failed to cover each of its last six as a favorite and is just 2-5 ATS its L/7 December match-ups.

MATT RIVERS

Free play for Thursday is Gonzaga as the double-digit home favorite over Air Force.

After losing back-to-back games to Big 10 heavies Illinois and Michigan State, Mark Few's team has reeled off three straight victories, including impressive wins and covers over Arizona and Butler their last two times out.

Gonzaga has played a very challenging early season schedule, that is for sure. The same cannot be said for the 6-2 Falcons who have played the likes of; VMI, Army, Western State, and Maryland Eastern-Shore to name a few.

The Bulldogs have covered four of their last five when priced as the double-digit favorite, and a step down in competition should very well lead to another cover as the big chalk.

Gonzaga to hand Air Force an early Christmas gift, as the paste the Falcons.

4♦ GONZAGA