JEFF BENTON
Your Thursday freebie comes in the NFL, as I expect the points to be scarce at Lucas Oil Stadium this Thursday night.
Let's face facts, when the Thursday night schedule was announced at the start of the season, no one thought the Colts would be owners of just one outright win. Both teams are playing with third-string quarterbacks, and the points have been as rare as rare can be of late.
Houston brings Unders in seven of their last eleven games, including three of their last four. For the season, the Texans have seen nine of their fourteen contests hold low.
As for Indianapolis, the Colts have stayed Under the total in each of their last pair of games, and six of their last seven overall.
Houston is still keep their playbook limited with rookie T.J. Yates under center, so don't expect an explosion of points from the Texans, especially with Andre Johnson still sidelined.
I like the Under to be the way to go in this Houston-Indy Thursday nighter tonight.
2♦ UNDER
Your Thursday freebie in college hoops is underdog Florida State plus the points at Florida.
I expect this year's meeting to be similar to last year's in which the Gators scored a 55-51 upset win as the four-point pup in Tallahassee. Low-scoring, defensive-minded, as State once again negates the arc-loving shooters from Florida.
The Seminoles are hitting their stride, winners of their last three, and they will be facing a Gators team that has been asked to cover a couple of inflated numbers thus far in their lined home games - both spread losses to Arizona and Rider.
Florida is on a two-game series winning streak, but Florida State has won three of the last five overall with three of the last five meetings having been decided by four-points or less.
It's usually close when these in-state rivals meet, and I like it to be close again tonight. Take the points in Gainsville.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE
Andrew Lange
LSU at North Texas
Play: North Texas +7
Good spot to step in and fade LSU following its upset win over Marquette on Monday. The Tigers, who average less than a point per possession, had and uncharacteristically efficient offensive outing. Defensively, LSU is pretty good, holding seven of its last eight opponents under 60 points, but the offense kept them from winning most of those games by a decent margin. They beat a bad Georgia Tech team by nine in a meaningless fifth place consolation game -- it was a one-point game with three minutes left. They then lost to South Alabama at home and posted close wins over Houston, Rutgers and UC Irvine. The only blowout was against a young Boise State squad that has shown no ability to perform on the road. North Texas lost a lot of talent from last year and took some lumps early on. They've however won four straight and got a big boost with Missouri transfer Tony Mitchell now eligible. The Mean Green have always had a pretty strong home court and even though they dismantled LSU last season in Baton Rouge by 20, I think the situation for the Tigers is too tough to ask for a win by margin. Take the dog.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Indianapolis Under 40: Survival. Tonight's game is all about survival for Houston as they would like to make it to the playoffs without any other big injuries, so I look for a conservative game plan from the Texans, that will be built around running the ball and defense. Defense is something this team knows about as they come in ranked 2nd overall, 2nd vs the pass, 5th vs the run and 4th in points allowed. Tonight they shouldn't have much trouble vs a Colts team that is 30th overall, 31st in passing and 28th in points allowed. Don't get fooled by the 27 points the Colts put on the board last week as they only had 287 yards in the game and they won't get 205 yards on the ground in this one. The Colts will have to run more as their pass game is horrible and that will help eat the clock. The Colt defense has been bad this year, but they are going up against a Houston offense that has really been conservative with out Schaub as they have averaged just 16.7 ppg in their last 3 games. Both teams will run, run run here and I see this one hitting no more than 35 points.
WUNDERDOG
James Madison at George Washington
Pick: James Madison +2
Karl Hobs put this program back on the map while D.C. rival Georgetown was down for a few years. Georgetown became a top team again, and Hobbs had trouble battling them for players, in the end that cost him his job. The Colonels are still a long way away from being viable in the A-10 again and have started a dismal 4-6, and certainly the resume of wins is not eye-opening. James Madison has enough pieces left from a 21-win team a year ago to start 5-3 on the season and has a notable win vs. Penn. The Dukes have stepped-up as a small to mid-sized dog of less than +7 to post a 9-3 ATS mark in their last 12. George Washington is amongst the nation's worst teams in non-conference games at 11-38-3 ATS in their last 52. Play on James Madison.
Larry Ness
Florida St. +9.5
It almost always makes more sense to take the Seminoles as underdogs (rather than favorites), as the team's lack of a consistent offense is not as great of a shortcoming when taking points. The 12th-ranked Gators lost all three frontcourt starters from last year, the 6-10 Macklin (11.6-5.4), the 6-10 Parsons (11.3-7.8) and the 6-8 Tyus (9.1-6.2) but has been just fine up until now. Veteran guards Boynton (18.7) and Walker (14.5-5.0 APG) are joined this year by 6-3 freshman Beal (15.0-6.3) and Florida enters this game 9-2, having lost only at Ohio St (now No. 2) 81-74 and at Syracuse (now No. 1) 72-68. The Seminoles are 8-3 and while FSU guard Snaer (13.7-4.5) does not have enough perimeter help to combat Beal, Boynton, and Walker, Hamilton's team gets the edge up front. The 6-10 James (10.5-9.2), the 6-7 White (8.3-5.2) and the 6-11 Gibson (8.0-5.5) just may give the Seminoles a chance at pulling the upset, avenging a Florida 55-51 Florida win last year in Tallahassee. Maybe I'm 'stretching' a little but I'm taking the points.
Nelly
Florida International + over Bowling Green
Florida International enters this game at just 3-8 but the schedule has been very tough with this game being just the third home game for the Panthers all season long. By most measures Florida International has played a top 100 schedule so far and the losses have been a result. This team has played close with several quality teams however and most of the losses have come by slim margins. Bowling Green is facing a third straight road game and a fourth road game in the last five games. The Falcons are 0-4 S/U on the road this season and the overall schedule has been rather weak though Bowling Green does have an upset win over Temple under its belt. Bowling Green has won the last two meetings between these teams the last two years but both were close games and both games came at Bowling Green. Florida International has been the superior defensive team in this match-up and the offensive numbers are very similar even though the Panthers have faced a stronger slate filled mostly with road games. Heading into the holidays this will be a difficult trip for Bowling Green and a favorable situation for Florida International, undervalued as a slight home underdog.
Vegas Experts
Minnesota at Edmonton
Play: Minnesota
Yesterday’s tip was another NHL Winner on Phoenix and tonight we see tons of value with Minnesota being small underdogs against Edmonton. Both teams are coming into this matchup cold; Minnesota is coming off five straight losses while Edmonton is coming off four straight losses. Minnesota got themselves into a small slump but look for them to turn things around and get back on a winning run like they were having before that slump. Prior to that five game losing streak, they won seven matchups and have already beat Edmonton 4 times this season (Perfect 4-0 SU). Look for them to make it five in a row against Edmonton!
Jack Jones
Nevada -12½
The Nevada Wolf Pack are one of the more underrated teams in the country. This team has managed to get through a very difficult schedule at 8-3 to this point. Their only losses have come against UNLV, BYU and Missouri State, three teams with a combined 28-8 record.
Their schedule gets much easier tonight as they host the Portland Pilots. One of the worst teams in college basketball, Portland is just 3-9 this season with their only wins coming against Florida Atlantic, Georgia State and Lewis Clark. Eight of their nine losses have come by double-digits this season.
Portland is 0-6 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in true road games this season. Their road losses came against Washington (63-93), UCSB (69-83), Kentucky (63-87), Saint Louis (53-73), Boise State (70-92) and Utah (67-72). That's an average loss of 19.2 points/game.
The Pilots are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games. Portland is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Pilots are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog. Nevada is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bet Nevada Thursday.
Dave Cokin
Davidson vs Massachusetts
Pick: Massachusetts
Davidson showed their quality in a very impressive win last time out at Kansas. But this is a tough follow up in a down schedule spot against a capable UMass squad. One of those dynamics where the better team is getting points, but the lesser team looks like the right side. I'm backing Massachusetts here.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders +160 over N.Y. RANGERS
With an important game on deck tomorrow against the Flyers, the Rangers will save Henrik Lundqvist for that one and turn to backup Marty Biron tonight. That’s not to say the Rangers will not be up for this game, it just says that they’re putting more weight on tomorrow’s game. The Rangers are coming off back-to-back wins over Phoenix and New Jersey. Against Phoenix they scored with a tenth of a second left in the game to win it and against New Jersey, they were the second best team on the ice, getting badly out-chanced and outshot. Prior to that, the Rangers had lost two straight and four of six. It’s safe to say that the Blue Shirts could conceivably be on a four-game losing streak with six losses in its past eight. The Islanders have picked up points in eight of their last 11. They remain one of the more undervalued teams in the league because of a poor record. The Islanders and Rangers have split their last four games, which has become commonplace over the years. Rangers are playing worse than their record suggests, thus creating the overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +160 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +156 over NASHVILLE
These two are no strangers to one another. They play six times a year and the games are commonly close. They’ve played three times this season and all three were decided by one goal with two of them going into OT. Throw the standings and current form out the window when these two get together. The Predators are a big risk laying significant weight because they struggle to score goals and they usually have to scratch and claw for every win. The Blue Jackets are having another awful year. Losing is becoming a part of who they are. However, they’re also capable of surprises, as there is talent on the roster that does rear its head from time to time. A game total of 5 suggests a low scoring, close game with the outcome very much up for grabs. Overlay. Play: Columbus +156 (Risking 2 units).
Anaheim +156 over LOS ANGELES
You simply can’t lay this type of juice with a Los Angeles team that has scored two goals or less in regulation in 12 straight games. That’s almost hard to believe but it’s true. The Kings also return home from a four-game trip to the east coast in which they played well but only split the four games. They had 40 shots or more on net in three of those games and yet they still only scored six goals in four games. Now the situation is one that could find them fatigued. The Ducks are close to snapping out of their current funk. They have to get better goaltending from Jonas Hiller, a guy that was hugely reliable in the past but is having an off year. Anaheim rallied from three down in its last game to tie Dallas before losing it in the final frame. They’re tightening up defensively and cutting right down on opponents’ scoring chances. This is the Ducks last game until after Christmas. Expect them to really give it everything they have in an attempt to turn things around before the break. The Kings play again tomorrow in San Jose. They’re in an unfavorable spot and for a team that is laboring to score goals, they’re overpriced. Play: Anaheim +156 (Risking 2 units).
NHLPredictions
Winnipeg Jets -125
I won't go into full details about the struggles that Montreal is having, as we talked about it last night, but their 5-1 loss last night drops them to 13-15-7 on the season. They've lost 4 straight and have won just 3 times in their last 13 games. Over their last 5 games they are averaging 4 goals against per game, and face the Jets who average just under 3 goals per game at home. Winnipeg is coming off of a 3-2 shootout loss on Tuesday night at home, moving them to 2-1-1 on their home stand. The Jets are still 9-3 in their last 12 home games. In fact Winnipeg hasn't lost back to back home games since November 10th, and there was a 7 game road trip in the middle of the two home games. The Canadiens did spoil the Jets home opener with a 5-1 win back on October 9th, but the Jets have come along way since then and that should be added motivation. To add to that, goalie Ondrej Pavelec called out his forwards after Tuesday's loss. Take note that the Canadiens are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games, and a brutal 2-12 in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. Montreal is also just 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs a team with a home winning % greater than .600. Tonight's game comes down to Montreal with close to zero confidence after another loss last night and struggling on the second of back to back games. Add to that the motivation that Winnipeg has in a revenge game + one of their leaders calling out the offense, and the big home advantage Winnipeg has had lately. I like the Jets to win this one, and don't mind laying the small price to take them at home.
CHRIS JORDAN
After giving you a 1000* Winner on Utah State last night, I'm coming right back with the Aggies for your comp play this evening. On the heels of last night’s 25-point blowout of St. Peters, you’re going to see the disciplined Aggies take it to a Kent team that will be playing its third straight game in Logan, Utah, where the altitude is high enough that it will have an impact.
Last night marked a milestone-600th game for the Aggies inside the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, where they’re 42-1 (.976) all-time in tournaments they host. In the month of December, under coach Stan Morrill, USU is 68-2 at home.
I know there aren't too many of you who know how disciplined a coach Morrill is, or how consistent this program is, but Utah State is one of just three teams in the nation to win at least 23 games in each of the last 12 seasons, along with Gonzaga and Kansas. That's how good this team has been, and still is.
And speaking of discipline, it usually equates to one thing with the Aggies: defense. Utah State ranks second in the Western Athletic Conference in scoring defense (64.4), second in field goal percentage (.455), second in three-point field goal percentage (.400), second in three-point field goal percentage defense (.310), third in field goal percentage defense (.403), fourth in scoring margin (+1.8), fifth in free throw shooting (.669), and sixth in blocked shots (2.73). The Aggies have played exceptional on defense this season, as they've held seven of their 12 opponents to under 40 percent shooting. Over their last six games, the Aggies have limited opponents' shooting to a mere 38 percent from the field (133-350) and just 29.1 percent from three-point range (35-120).
And while Utah State is smothering the Flashes, I fully expect it to continue its offensive surge, as it has now scored at least 70 points in each of its last four games after scoring 70-plus points just once during its first eight outings this season During its last three games, Utah State is averaging 74.7 points and shooting 50.2 percent from the field (100-199), 42.6 percent from three-point range (26-61) and 73.7 percent at the free throw line (73-99). And make note, the Aggies are 4-1 this year and has won 65 of their last 68 games when scoring at least 70 points.
4* UTAH STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Let's talk about this cheap number with the Jayhawks tonight in South Central L.A., cause I think it's a joke of a line against a very mediocre Southern Cal team. Kansas is going to erupt, avenging its loss to Davidson on Monday.
The Jayhawks are not slipping, they're not over-rated, they simply came in rusty after taking eight days off for finals. It was more of a wake-up call. This team has played Kentucky (loss), Georgetown (win), UCLA (win), Duke (loss) and Ohio State (win).
In fact, the Jawyhawks' last win before the eight-day layoff was that rout of the Buckeyes, on Dec. 10. So don't for a moment think I am going to overanalyze and wonder why the Jayhawks are suddenly laying a rather low number to an average team, even on their court just a few days away from Christmas.
Southern Cal is 5-7 on the season, and that includes a loss to Cal Poly (which held the Trojans to 36 points), a three-point win over Morgan State and two other losses in which it was held to 40 and 41 points. This offense cannot score points, averaging a measly 54.2 points per game, ranking 333rd in the nation (out of 338 teams). That won't bode well against a Kansas team that ranks 38th in the nation with its 13.2-point scoring margin.
Look for the Jayhawks, who are 18-3 on the road the last two seasons, to roll past the Trojans.
4♦ KANSAS
Matt Rivers
Free play for Thursday is Gonzaga as the double-digit home favorite over Air Force.
After losing back-to-back games to Big 10 heavies Illinois and Michigan State, Mark Few's team has reeled off three straight victories, including impressive wins and covers over Arizona and Butler their last two times out.
Gonzaga has played a very challenging early season schedule, that is for sure. The same cannot be said for the 6-2 Falcons who have played the likes of; VMI, Army, Western State, and Maryland Eastern-Shore to name a few.
The Bulldogs have covered four of their last five when priced as the double-digit favorite, and a step down in competition should very well lead to another cover as the big chalk.
Gonzaga to hand Air Force an early Christmas gift, as the paste the Falcons.
4♦ GONZAGA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the Missouri Tigers to cover against the Illinois Illini.
Illinois is having their problems right now. After getting thumped at home by UNLV, 64-48, it narrowly wins against Cornell, 64-60.
Now, the Illini face the unbeaten Missouri Tigers.
Missouri is averaging 87.9 points a game and shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from three-point range. Defensively, Missouri allows an average of 60.2 points a game.
For Illinois, it averages 64.4 points a game and shooting 44.5 percent.
Illinois will try to slow down the pace and feature seven-foot Meyers Leonard. But if the Tigers are able to run, Illinois will not be able to keep pace.
Lay the points.
3♦ MISSOURI