Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play I'm siding with the Crimson of Harvard as they host the Owls of FAU. Seems like a lot of points to lay at the outset, but honestly for those of you who haven't had a chance to watch this Harvard team play, you'll be surprised at how much better they are than this ho-hum Owls team.
I know many of you may have seen or heard about FAU's 93-90 loss, but cover versus Miami-Florida Saturday, but that game has little positive bearing on this contest. It was an in-state rivalry game, a crushingly disappointing loss, and sets the Owls up perfectly for a letdown tonight. Not that they would win this game regardless, but I have questions to their motivation in this one following that loss to Miami.
Owls have picked up their play with leading scorer Gantt our with an ankle injury, but they can only make up so much. Bettors mistakenly faded the Owls as soon as they heard about his injury and oddsmakers capitalized. Don't ever knee jery following injury news, it's better to fade the team a couple game after the injury occurred so you avoid that effect we see when teams band together following an injury.
Biggest problem for FAU will come inside against the Crimson's two talented forwards Casey and Wright. Kore White has played well for FAU in his last couple, but the Crimson are well aware of his penchant for fouling and will attack him early and often. Both teams get solid point guard play, but without Gantt in there, the Owls lack that scoring punch from the outside. Moreover, we're talking about an FAU offense that averages just 61 ppg on the highway.
Bottom line, FAU has been overachieving their last couple games, but that comes to an end tonight. Harvard had a setback against UCONN, but a lot of teams are going to have setbacks against the Huskies this season. This is the same team that handled FSU back in November, and they'll be just fine in this one as FAU suffers a letdown following that close loss to Miami. Lay it with Harvard over Florida Atlantic Thursday.
2♦ HARVARD
Black Widow
1* Charlotte -1
The Charlotte 49ers are the real deal this season. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight over Miami, but the Hurricanes are simply getting too much respect due to "name recognition". Miami (6-4) is in rebuilding mode with just one returning starter from last season. The Hurricanes have not fared well at all on the road this season, going 1-3 SU & 0-3 ATS while allowing 76.7 points/game and 47.7 percent shooting. Charlotte (7-2 SU, 3-0 ATS) welcomes back four starters from last season. What's most imprssive about this team is that they've played five true road games in their first nine games, winning four of them. Charlotte gets after it defensively, allowing 64.1 points on 37.5 percent shooting. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - poor shooting team - shooting <=42% on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1997. Take Charlotte and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Northeastern +11
Northeastern gets the call as our free play for Thursday as it fits into a system that has been very profitable the last 14 years. Playing on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) that check in off an upset loss and are playing with one of less days' rest has produced an impressive 126-72 (63.6%) ATS mark since 1997. This system has already produced a 5-2 ATS record this season. In addition, the Northeastern Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The NC State Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. We'll take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit St. Peter's +7.5
We played on Texas Arlington +6 on the premium side yesterday and watched it upset Kent State. That big win sets the Mavericks up for a letdown this evening.
After playing Kent State tough to earn a cover Tuesday, St. Peter's was crushed by 25 points by Utah State last night. That loss assures us the Peacocks will be hungry this evening.
Consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a December road loss of 20 points or more are 73-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams, which have been underdogs of 6.3 points on average, have only lost by an average of 3.4 points in this situation. With this in mind, I believe St. Pete's is showing good value at this line.
The Peacocks have been one of the least-known quality investments recently, covering the number in 17 of their last 23 games. They have really sizzled as an underdog, going 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games in the point-catching role. Getting a little more specific, we find the Peacocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 20 points. We'll take the points.
Steve Janus
Idaho +3
The Vandals come into this game off a heartbreaking 78-80 overtime loss at Wright State as a 1-point favorite. Even with the loss, Idaho is a DOMINANT 4-1 ATS ON THE ROAD. That includes an outright win at Oregon State (74-60) as a 12.5-point underdog.
The loss snapped the Vandals 3-game winning streak. Idaho is is 7-5 on the year. They have rebounded from their first four losses with a straight up win and a win against the spread.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is just 5-6 overall, but this is weird game for them. The Phoenix haven't played since barely holding off Michigan Tech at home 69-61 last Tuesday. After their game against Idaho they won't play again until next Thursday. I expect them to come out very flat and lose this game outright. The safe play is to take the 3-points, but I will likely throw a little extra on the Idaho money line of +144.
Idaho is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Dave Price
1 Unit Fairfield +12.5
This experienced Fairfield team likes to play a slow, half-court game and it is very good at controlling tempo. With the total set low at just 124, odds makers are clearly expecting Fairfield to have success controlling the tempo tonight. The total is significant considering UConn is 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Calhoun in home games when the total is 129.5 or less. The Huskies are only winning by an average of 4.0 points in these games. Take Fairfield.